Will anyplace ever really put sanctions on Russia? Will European countries stop buying oil from them, maybe buy from haha the USA instead? Is that a thing that would feasibly happen?
It's natural gas they need, and no because nobody else has the infrastructure to supply what Europe needs, including us.
Oh, I didn't know that. So, aside from a Russia/Nato war, which will not happen, will anything at all happen?
Will anyplace ever really put sanctions on Russia? Will European countries stop buying oil from them, maybe buy from haha the USA instead? Is that a thing that would feasibly happen?
It's natural gas they need, and no because nobody else has the infrastructure to supply what Europe needs, including us.
Oh, I didn't know that. So, aside from a Russia/Nato war, which will not happen, will anything at all happen?
There are pretty real sanctions right now, though it would take Germany to make them attitude changing (which isn't in Germany's best interest right now, unfortunately for Ukraine). There are pipelines in place from Turkey and the Nordic countries that can pick up some of the pace for European needs, but when it comes down to it if the game of fuel chicken becomes a think Russia will win short term but lose (hugely) long term as the infrastructure for alternative heating sources are produced in western Europe.
Remember that while Europe needs Russian gas, Russia needs Europe's money just as badly
Russia needs it way more. At absolute worst Europe faces recession. An economic war would plunge Russia into a full on depression and likely rebellion. The problem with that is they're still a nuclear power and no one wants to see what a truly desperate Putin might do.
Yeah, there is always the threat of nuclear arms being used both against rebels in a anti-Putin/admin rebellion or against Western nations. I don't know if it would come down to that in actuality, but it's a terrible specter.
I think that wealthy and powerful Russian businessmen will be able to push on people below Putin and get him out of office if he makes things bad enough for them.
I have read at least one expert already floating the idea that Putin isn't going to be able to finish his term. The Russian oligarchy will take a massive dump on him.
Remember that while Europe needs Russian gas, Russia needs Europe's money just as badly
Russia needs it way more. At absolute worst Europe faces recession. An economic war would plunge Russia into a full on depression and likely rebellion. The problem with that is they're still a nuclear power and no one wants to see what a truly desperate Putin might do.
Putin is no more a maniac than he is a strategic mastermind. He's an ordinary posturing strongman who just happens to have an unusually powerful country to play at brinkmanship with. He wouldn't resort to nuclear force any more than he would resort to actual war if faced with robust Western opposition.
The most likely outcome of a trade war would be Putin getting kicked out of office by popular dissent over having no food and heat in winter.
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LuvTheMonkeyHigh Sierra SerenadeRegistered Userregular
There are lots of institutions and companies who pay in SWIFT as a standard course of business and have no real alternative to doing so set up. And it's a European system, so the EU would basically be saying "your companies and our companies will, for the time being, have to put most payments on hold."
I would have to imagine that wouldn't go over well with the western financial institutions expecting payments from Russia?
Also this: "Namely the likelihood that large chunks of Russian international payments flows would move to much less well-monitored and measured financial channels and thus be beyond sanctions at any future point," he [Richard Reid, a research fellow for finance and regulation at the University of Dundee in Scotland] added.
"If complete and utter chaos was lightning, then he'd be the sort to stand on a hilltop in a thunderstorm wearing wet copper armour and shouting 'All gods are bastards'."
"Nazarbayev is a prudent leader, even the most prudent in the post-soviet space. He would never act against the will of his country’s people. He is very sensitive to the people’s anticipations. And everything that has been done owing to his managerial capabilities and political experience has served Kazakhstan’s interests.
“He has done a unique thing. He created a state in a territory that had never had a state before. (...) From this perspective, he is a unique figure both in the post-Soviet space and in Kazakhstan.
Kinda has some implications for a post-Nazarbayev country...
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Indie Winterdie KräheRudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered Userregular
Nah, male mena youth living in various projects having a positive view on those rad ISIS dudes is pretty common. But that making up for 27% of the age group population I'll attribute to the russian information source...
Does the poll also reveal that 27% of those aged 18-24 don't know what ISIS is?
It's a '70s TV show about an archaeologist who finds a magic medallion that gives her super powers. DC owns the rights and in fact used the character in comics!
It's not always disadvantaged groups. Many people who travel from Europe to fight in Syria and Iraq are actually rather well-educated. Radical Islamist groups in countries like Germany also have a higher proportion of converts. The most prominent figure of the Salafist scene in Germany converted from Lutheranism to Islam when he was 22.
I recently read an article in which an Iraqi leader called for assistance against IS from Western European countries since their citizens are so prominent in the IS movement and presumably also contribute to their funding.
I was a bit reminded of groups like the Khmer Rouge whose members were often educated in the West and also used these privileged ties to exert power in what was their home country.
Interesting, but over the last decade hasn't there been a pretty large anti-Muslim / Islamic sentiment among French citizens?
I'm genuinely asking because I'm pretty uninformed but I remember some hoopla about a law getting passed or proposed prohibiting the headgear in public ?
diablo III - beardsnbeer#1508 Mechwarrior Online - Rusty Bock
And at least a few percent of that will be people screwing with the pollsters and so on, even before taking into account that that age group's grasp of the nuances and details of geopolitics isn't exactly stellar.
But yeah, those coupled with some nasty nasty attitudes towards various populations in France the last several years - I can easily believe that kind of polarized attitude showing up.
Interesting, but over the last decade hasn't there been a pretty large anti-Muslim / Islamic sentiment among French citizens?
I'm genuinely asking because I'm pretty uninformed but I remember some hoopla about a law getting passed or proposed prohibiting the headgear in public ?
I imagine laws like that don't exactly thrill the people they're aimed at.
Yes, there has been, but the exact extent is difficult to gauge. You might have heard that the National Front, which has in the past campaigned on "anti-Islamism" platforms, won 23 out of 74 French seats in the European Parliament. Yet they only hold two seats out of 577 in the National Assembly.
The issue of anti-Islamic sentiment in Europe is muddled and the media have a role of acting as accelerants. But there's also Muslim politicians who campaign and try to gain publicity through their opposition towards radical Islamism. We have one person of Turkish descent in Austria's Green Party who calls almost every week for a ban on "jihadism", for German-language sermons in mosques and so on.
My mom recently threw a woman she knew from her house because that person announced she would vote for a right-wing party in the next election because "she's fed up with Turks". What shocked my mother was that this person was from an immigrant group which had also been discriminated against until recent years (former Yugoslavians), when my mother pointed this out she simply answered that she feels "integrated".
uh, don't look at the rest of that twitter account. it's vile.
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Metzger MeisterIt Gets Worsebefore it gets any better.Registered Userregular
I won't! Instead I'm gonna eat some Halloween candy that my parents got at the store today and take a nap. These tiny Hershey bars have little skellingtons and tombstones with bad puns on them, so I feel a little better now.
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The Sochi Olympics were in no way a source of income for Russia. It was just an excuse for a massive embezzlement of state funds.
Oh, I didn't know that. So, aside from a Russia/Nato war, which will not happen, will anything at all happen?
There are pretty real sanctions right now, though it would take Germany to make them attitude changing (which isn't in Germany's best interest right now, unfortunately for Ukraine). There are pipelines in place from Turkey and the Nordic countries that can pick up some of the pace for European needs, but when it comes down to it if the game of fuel chicken becomes a think Russia will win short term but lose (hugely) long term as the infrastructure for alternative heating sources are produced in western Europe.
Russia needs it way more. At absolute worst Europe faces recession. An economic war would plunge Russia into a full on depression and likely rebellion. The problem with that is they're still a nuclear power and no one wants to see what a truly desperate Putin might do.
I think that wealthy and powerful Russian businessmen will be able to push on people below Putin and get him out of office if he makes things bad enough for them.
Putin is no more a maniac than he is a strategic mastermind. He's an ordinary posturing strongman who just happens to have an unusually powerful country to play at brinkmanship with. He wouldn't resort to nuclear force any more than he would resort to actual war if faced with robust Western opposition.
The most likely outcome of a trade war would be Putin getting kicked out of office by popular dissent over having no food and heat in winter.
damn it Turkey where's that belligerence when we need it
In Constantinople.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-crisis-russia-faces-swift-financial-transaction-systems-ban-1463207
That would leave a mark.
Woah
that is a big deal
There are lots of institutions and companies who pay in SWIFT as a standard course of business and have no real alternative to doing so set up. And it's a European system, so the EU would basically be saying "your companies and our companies will, for the time being, have to put most payments on hold."
Also this: "Namely the likelihood that large chunks of Russian international payments flows would move to much less well-monitored and measured financial channels and thus be beyond sanctions at any future point," he [Richard Reid, a research fellow for finance and regulation at the University of Dundee in Scotland] added.
Kinda has some implications for a post-Nazarbayev country...
They're pretty sure it's that cartoon Archer.
It's a '70s TV show about an archaeologist who finds a magic medallion that gives her super powers. DC owns the rights and in fact used the character in comics!
much less ONE OUT OF FOUR PEOPLE
Perhaps with strong religious views?
I was a bit reminded of groups like the Khmer Rouge whose members were often educated in the West and also used these privileged ties to exert power in what was their home country.
I'm genuinely asking because I'm pretty uninformed but I remember some hoopla about a law getting passed or proposed prohibiting the headgear in public ?
And at least a few percent of that will be people screwing with the pollsters and so on, even before taking into account that that age group's grasp of the nuances and details of geopolitics isn't exactly stellar.
But yeah, those coupled with some nasty nasty attitudes towards various populations in France the last several years - I can easily believe that kind of polarized attitude showing up.
I imagine laws like that don't exactly thrill the people they're aimed at.
The issue of anti-Islamic sentiment in Europe is muddled and the media have a role of acting as accelerants. But there's also Muslim politicians who campaign and try to gain publicity through their opposition towards radical Islamism. We have one person of Turkish descent in Austria's Green Party who calls almost every week for a ban on "jihadism", for German-language sermons in mosques and so on.
huh.