Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
Color me relieved - I thought we'd have to continue this charade while stabbing ourselves in the gut for at least another week.
Based on the way Michigan apportions delegates, Romney could lose Michigan on the delegate count. He's surely going to win the popular vote and spin it as a win, but don't think for a second that Santorum isn't going to point out his delegate win if he manages it.
Romney really should not be having this close a race in one of his home states...
For some reason, it really annoys me that most of the news outlets in beginning their Michigan delegate counts are dishing them out in odd numbers so far (3 each for Romney and Santorum on CNN so far, 5 each from NYT, etc). Michigan is literally dishing them out in groups of two. You have to give them even numbers. This is not a difficult concept to get.
Also, from his speech, I think Romney is going to invade Alberta.
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
Based on the results reported so far, as well as some crude projections based on county-by-county results, it looks likely that Rick Santorum will win the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th Congressional districts in Michigan -- although that conclusion is more tenuous in the 3rd and 7th districts than the other two.
Meanwhile, it looks as though Mitt Romney will win the 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th and 14th districts.
That leaves the 1st, 4th, 5th, 10th and 13th Congressional districts as being very hard to call. Mr. Santorum perhaps has the slightest edge in the 1st, 4th and 10th districts. The 13th probably favors Mr. Romney based on his overall strength in the Detroit region, but it is hard to say for sure because it contains so few Democratic votes. I would not characterize the 5th district as leaning one way or the other.
Thus, it seems possible that Mr. Romney could win as few as 5 congressional districts or as many as 10, depending on how the remaining results trickle in. It's also still possible that Mr. Santorum could win more districts despite losing the popular vote in the state.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
What they are saying that the speech lacked Santorum qualities is that the narrative is basically that Santorum is the one with conservative passion, and Romney is the one with a conservative mind. Or something.
Also, Candyman was the opening song. You are thinking of Pure Imagination.
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
Are you sure you understand what the world "handily" means?
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
The way Michigan apportions delegates makes the Michigan popular vote a cosmetic number. If this was a winner take all state, like Arizona, it'd be a far more significant win.
It's going to be interesting how this gets spun into Super Tuesday.
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
Are you sure you understand what the world "handily" means?
Based on the results reported so far, as well as some crude projections based on county-by-county results, it looks likely that Rick Santorum will win the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th Congressional districts in Michigan -- although that conclusion is more tenuous in the 3rd and 7th districts than the other two.
Meanwhile, it looks as though Mitt Romney will win the 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th and 14th districts.
That leaves the 1st, 4th, 5th, 10th and 13th Congressional districts as being very hard to call. Mr. Santorum perhaps has the slightest edge in the 1st, 4th and 10th districts. The 13th probably favors Mr. Romney based on his overall strength in the Detroit region, but it is hard to say for sure because it contains so few Democratic votes. I would not characterize the 5th district as leaning one way or the other.
Thus, it seems possible that Mr. Romney could win as few as 5 congressional districts or as many as 10, depending on how the remaining results trickle in. It's also still possible that Mr. Santorum could win more districts despite losing the popular vote in the state.
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
The way Michigan apportions delegates makes the Michigan popular vote a cosmetic number. If this was a winner take all state, like Arizona, it'd be a far more significant win.
It's going to be interesting how this gets spun into Super Tuesday.
It may be only a cosmetic number, but that can be important. If the media makes it seem like Romney is winning handily, that could wrap up the nomination for him right here. On the other hand, if they present it like "Romney just barely wins his home state while Santorum wins more delegates" it could backfire on him.
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
Are you sure you understand what the world "handily" means?
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
Are you sure you understand what the world "handily" means?
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
The way Michigan apportions delegates makes the Michigan popular vote a cosmetic number. If this was a winner take all state, like Arizona, it'd be a far more significant win.
It's going to be interesting how this gets spun into Super Tuesday.
It may be only a cosmetic number, but that can be important. If the media makes it seem like Romney is winning handily, that could wrap up the nomination for him right here. On the other hand, if they present it like "Romney just barely wins his home state while Santorum wins more delegates" it could backfire on him.
Yup; it depends on how they spin it and what new adds appear between now and Super Tuesday.
The problem is that "delegate count" isn't very sexy, so it won't be easy to get people's attention.
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
The Republicans are starting to talk about political happenings the same way they talk about their religion, i.e., saying things loud enough, long enough, in large groups, in hopes that those things will somehow legitimize things that are logically improbably, if not outright impossible.
Wait Gingrich is still in this, right? What's his reasoning?
He could win a few southern states on Super Tuesday and ride that into...some magical future in which Romney and Santorum stop existing.
And if he stays in until the convention he could be one epic troll by forcing a brokered convention.
Or maybe he wants to establish some strength to make it "his turn" in 2016?
Wait Gingrich is still in this, right? What's his reasoning?
He could win a few southern states on Super Tuesday and ride that into...some magical future in which Romney and Santorum stop existing.
And if he stays in until the convention he could be one epic troll by forcing a brokered convention.
Or maybe he wants to establish some strength to make it "his turn" in 2016?
I don't think a brokered convention is impossible.
The other thing to consider is that he stumbled into some hefty outside funding, so he doesn't lose anything by staying in for a while longer. I mean, what else does he have to do?
Wait Gingrich is still in this, right? What's his reasoning?
He could win a few southern states on Super Tuesday and ride that into...some magical future in which Romney and Santorum stop existing.
And if he stays in until the convention he could be one epic troll by forcing a brokered convention.
Or maybe he wants to establish some strength to make it "his turn" in 2016?
I don't think a brokered convention is impossible.
The other thing to consider is that he stumbled into some hefty outside funding, so he doesn't lose anything by staying in for a while longer. I mean, what else does he have to do?
Well yeah but he has to realize that if he stays in all the way he's hurting the eventual nominee.
Right now he's especially hurting Rick Santorum, since I think Gingrich voters are more likely to switch to him.
Either his pride is so massive that he can't see anything but himself, or he just doesn't care about the Republican Party at all.
Wait Gingrich is still in this, right? What's his reasoning?
He could win a few southern states on Super Tuesday and ride that into...some magical future in which Romney and Santorum stop existing.
And if he stays in until the convention he could be one epic troll by forcing a brokered convention.
Or maybe he wants to establish some strength to make it "his turn" in 2016?
I don't think a brokered convention is impossible.
The other thing to consider is that he stumbled into some hefty outside funding, so he doesn't lose anything by staying in for a while longer. I mean, what else does he have to do?
Well yeah but he has to realize that if he stays in all the way he's hurting the eventual nominee.
Right now he's especially hurting Rick Santorum, since I think Gingrich voters are more likely to switch to him.
Either his pride is so massive that he can't see anything but himself, or he just doesn't care about the Republican Party at all.
Yeah, if he dropped out before Michigan that would have been quite interesting.
Not caring about the Republican Party seems like the sort of thing Gingrich would do.
Wait Gingrich is still in this, right? What's his reasoning?
He could win a few southern states on Super Tuesday and ride that into...some magical future in which Romney and Santorum stop existing.
And if he stays in until the convention he could be one epic troll by forcing a brokered convention.
Or maybe he wants to establish some strength to make it "his turn" in 2016?
Romney seems to be crushing the opposition tonight. Handily leading in Michigan, and destroying him in AZ.
3% is "handily leading"?
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
If Romney "runs the table" on super Tuesday I'll vote Republican in the election.
(That's my way of saying that no fucking way will that happen)
We have a president who says no. We need a president who says "reply hazy, try again", "ask again later", and "better not tell you now" to the American people.
Well, that's what I heard, anyways.
Too bad it wasn't a clear win for him. The GOP needs a real leader to get his shit wrecked in November so the members of the party start pulling their heads outta their asses.
We have a president who says no. We need a president who says "reply hazy, try again", "ask again later", and "better not tell you now" to the American people.
Well, that's what I heard, anyways.
Too bad it wasn't a clear win for him. The GOP needs a real leader to get his shit wrecked in November so the members of the party start pulling their heads outta their asses.
Yeah, I want Santorum to win so the social conservatives can have their moment at the forefront of the party, and be smashed in the general election.
We have a president who says no. We need a president who says "reply hazy, try again", "ask again later", and "better not tell you now" to the American people.
Well, that's what I heard, anyways.
Too bad it wasn't a clear win for him. The GOP needs a real leader to get his shit wrecked in November so the members of the party start pulling their heads outta their asses.
Yeah, I want Santorum to win so the social conservatives can have their moment at the forefront of the party, and be smashed in the general election.
I want Romney to win, because one of the two people on the ballot has to become President of the United States of America.
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GnomeTankWhat the what?Portland, OregonRegistered Userregular
We have a president who says no. We need a president who says "reply hazy, try again", "ask again later", and "better not tell you now" to the American people.
Well, that's what I heard, anyways.
Too bad it wasn't a clear win for him. The GOP needs a real leader to get his shit wrecked in November so the members of the party start pulling their heads outta their asses.
Yeah, I want Santorum to win so the social conservatives can have their moment at the forefront of the party, and be smashed in the general election.
I want Romney to win, because one of the two people on the ballot has to become President of the United States of America.
I think the idea here is that Rick Santorum has no chance of winning a general election. But I agree, it's still a very dangerous game to play to prove a point.
We have a president who says no. We need a president who says "reply hazy, try again", "ask again later", and "better not tell you now" to the American people.
Well, that's what I heard, anyways.
Too bad it wasn't a clear win for him. The GOP needs a real leader to get his shit wrecked in November so the members of the party start pulling their heads outta their asses.
Yeah, I want Santorum to win so the social conservatives can have their moment at the forefront of the party, and be smashed in the general election.
I want Romney to win, because one of the two people on the ballot has to become President of the United States of America.
...but it would be nice if he stayed in a while longer before losing. That way they could poke each other with sticks some more, look more crazy, and provide some frightening entertainment.
No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
On one hand, if Romney gets the nom and loses, then the fractured GOP potentially limps on into the 2016 election.
On the other hand, that means GOP crazies can still act crazy in Congress and still have some job security.
I would doubt the contention that Romney's coattails would be much longer than Santorum's.
And the only true way for Rick Santorum to have no chance of winning a general election is by not appearing on the ballot. Otherwise his odds are significantly higher than zero. That makes them too high for my blood. I could maybe bluff on a bet like that with $Texas. Not on $USA.
Even if Santorum won the nom and lost the general, I don't think the GOP would take that as a referendum that they need to move more towards the center. If anything I think that no matter the outcome the GOP will continue to run crazy in some random direction. I don't even think there is anyway Santorum would get Mondaled. These days country is just too far polarized for something like that to happen.
Santorum would have to be caught fucking a male goat while burning the American flag to lose states like Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Texas, Wyoming, etc in the general election.
CommunistCow on
No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
It typically takes between 10-20 years in 'the wilderness' before a party tacks back to the center. It's kind of hard to even say that they've been in the wilderness for the full 4-6 years or so given the mid-term so at best 2020 will probably be when a non-crazy GOP emerges.
On one hand, if Romney gets the nom and loses, then the fractured GOP potentially limps on into the 2016 election.
On the other hand, that means GOP crazies can still act crazy in Congress and still have some job security.
The idea is that if Romney wins the nomination and loses, the social conservatives will go "See? We can't win on economics! We need to run on birth control and hating women!"
But if Santorum wins the nomination and loses, the sane Republicans will go, "See? We can't win on pretending this is the 40s!"
I'm pretty sure it won't matter who wins the GOP nomination at this point because whoever wins is likely going to lose to Obama. Hell, Romney looks pretty weak and I seriously doubt his competition is going to let him spin his narrow win into an astounding victory. Yes, their idiots but they aren't that stupid.
Arizona doesn't look exactly rosy for Romney either, sure he won by a landslide but everyone saw a massive win coming and if it hadn't come (as in as close as Michigan is going to be) it would have made him look bad. As the better funded & organized candidate, with the blessing of the party & John McCain's support, as well as, the over-whelming Mormon vote in Arizona, Romney still isn't likely to break 50% of the popular vote (he was barely able to break it in Nevada and that was still under 51%). At this point, he should have gotten some wins over 51%, definitely in Arizona and he hasn't.
I don't know about the brokered convention we'll see what happens on Super Tuesday, but no one is leaving anytime soon, Romney is screwed on that front. He knows he's going to be slogging through this primary likely another two months, his opponents know this as well. The question is how damaged will he be after this and how likely is the damage likely to become toxic for people down the ticket. I'm not talking about them getting hurt from the base not being excited about Romney, thus not showing up to vote. I'm talking about creating a negative image to the point where people reflexively vote against republicans because they have such a negative image of Romney that they end up not trusting anyone from his party.
Now granted I'm a bit leery of the idea of a Santorum Presidential run because there is always the chance that the guy wins do to an unforeseen circumstance. That said a Santorum bid followed by a resounding loss could in theory drive the GOP back to sanity because they couldn't use the excuse of "he just weren't conservative enough." I'll stress that might not be 100% given that 10% of Michigan voters thought he was liberal and the fringe taking over the GOP is really got at revisionist history. I'm pretty sure with Romney as the nominee, they will write the loss off as "he just wasn't conservative enough!" At which point in 2016, they just kick the borrow to the said and scrap up whatever oozed out of into the ground for presidential candidate material.
Incidentally, I'm not sure astroturf is an appropriate term for the tea party anymore. They certainly started out that way but since they seem to be gaining control despite party efforts to buck them, perhaps we should start calling them grey goo. Astroturf made out of nano machines gone awry would be the only way to describe how such a thing could turn on it's creators.
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It's true. Santorum is a disgusting human, Romney is a rich android.
Based on the way Michigan apportions delegates, Romney could lose Michigan on the delegate count. He's surely going to win the popular vote and spin it as a win, but don't think for a second that Santorum isn't going to point out his delegate win if he manages it.
Romney really should not be having this close a race in one of his home states...
At least Santorum isn't boring.
Romney's speech was just bad math.
Also, from his speech, I think Romney is going to invade Alberta.
Politico has him up by 3.5% with 85% reporting - that's pretty handily won. Closer than he'd like, to be sure, but he had to contend with a concerted spoiler effort.
OK that's a bit of apologetics - it's a lot closer than he or I would like. But it's a win, and AZ is a rout. That's good enough to go into Super Tuesday - hopefully he'll run the table next week and that really will be that.
Also, Candyman was the opening song. You are thinking of Pure Imagination.
Are you sure you understand what the world "handily" means?
The way Michigan apportions delegates makes the Michigan popular vote a cosmetic number. If this was a winner take all state, like Arizona, it'd be a far more significant win.
It's going to be interesting how this gets spun into Super Tuesday.
Winning by more than 0%?
MANDATE!
Source?
It may be only a cosmetic number, but that can be important. If the media makes it seem like Romney is winning handily, that could wrap up the nomination for him right here. On the other hand, if they present it like "Romney just barely wins his home state while Santorum wins more delegates" it could backfire on him.
This made me lol.
It's the Republican way.
Yup; it depends on how they spin it and what new adds appear between now and Super Tuesday.
The problem is that "delegate count" isn't very sexy, so it won't be easy to get people's attention.
He could win a few southern states on Super Tuesday and ride that into...some magical future in which Romney and Santorum stop existing.
Or maybe he wants to establish some strength to make it "his turn" in 2016?
I don't think a brokered convention is impossible.
The other thing to consider is that he stumbled into some hefty outside funding, so he doesn't lose anything by staying in for a while longer. I mean, what else does he have to do?
Well yeah but he has to realize that if he stays in all the way he's hurting the eventual nominee.
Right now he's especially hurting Rick Santorum, since I think Gingrich voters are more likely to switch to him.
Either his pride is so massive that he can't see anything but himself, or he just doesn't care about the Republican Party at all.
Yeah, if he dropped out before Michigan that would have been quite interesting.
Not caring about the Republican Party seems like the sort of thing Gingrich would do.
Georgia.
Also, to watch mitt Romney burn.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
That's assuming he is still breathing then. . .
Oh that's why he's weird; he ran Huckabee's Super Pac.
The irony of course being that if Gingrich had dropped out before Michigan, Santorum probably would have won the popular vote there.
Yeah. I doubt this is a jab at Romney. If Gingrich wanted to hurt Romney, he'd drop out and throw his support to Santorum.
If Romney "runs the table" on super Tuesday I'll vote Republican in the election.
(That's my way of saying that no fucking way will that happen)
Well, that's what I heard, anyways.
Too bad it wasn't a clear win for him. The GOP needs a real leader to get his shit wrecked in November so the members of the party start pulling their heads outta their asses.
Yeah, I want Santorum to win so the social conservatives can have their moment at the forefront of the party, and be smashed in the general election.
I want Romney to win, because one of the two people on the ballot has to become President of the United States of America.
I think the idea here is that Rick Santorum has no chance of winning a general election. But I agree, it's still a very dangerous game to play to prove a point.
On the other hand, that means GOP crazies can still act crazy in Congress and still have some job security.
...but it would be nice if he stayed in a while longer before losing. That way they could poke each other with sticks some more, look more crazy, and provide some frightening entertainment.
I would doubt the contention that Romney's coattails would be much longer than Santorum's.
And the only true way for Rick Santorum to have no chance of winning a general election is by not appearing on the ballot. Otherwise his odds are significantly higher than zero. That makes them too high for my blood. I could maybe bluff on a bet like that with $Texas. Not on $USA.
Santorum would have to be caught fucking a male goat while burning the American flag to lose states like Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Texas, Wyoming, etc in the general election.
The idea is that if Romney wins the nomination and loses, the social conservatives will go "See? We can't win on economics! We need to run on birth control and hating women!"
But if Santorum wins the nomination and loses, the sane Republicans will go, "See? We can't win on pretending this is the 40s!"
Arizona doesn't look exactly rosy for Romney either, sure he won by a landslide but everyone saw a massive win coming and if it hadn't come (as in as close as Michigan is going to be) it would have made him look bad. As the better funded & organized candidate, with the blessing of the party & John McCain's support, as well as, the over-whelming Mormon vote in Arizona, Romney still isn't likely to break 50% of the popular vote (he was barely able to break it in Nevada and that was still under 51%). At this point, he should have gotten some wins over 51%, definitely in Arizona and he hasn't.
I don't know about the brokered convention we'll see what happens on Super Tuesday, but no one is leaving anytime soon, Romney is screwed on that front. He knows he's going to be slogging through this primary likely another two months, his opponents know this as well. The question is how damaged will he be after this and how likely is the damage likely to become toxic for people down the ticket. I'm not talking about them getting hurt from the base not being excited about Romney, thus not showing up to vote. I'm talking about creating a negative image to the point where people reflexively vote against republicans because they have such a negative image of Romney that they end up not trusting anyone from his party.
Now granted I'm a bit leery of the idea of a Santorum Presidential run because there is always the chance that the guy wins do to an unforeseen circumstance. That said a Santorum bid followed by a resounding loss could in theory drive the GOP back to sanity because they couldn't use the excuse of "he just weren't conservative enough." I'll stress that might not be 100% given that 10% of Michigan voters thought he was liberal and the fringe taking over the GOP is really got at revisionist history. I'm pretty sure with Romney as the nominee, they will write the loss off as "he just wasn't conservative enough!" At which point in 2016, they just kick the borrow to the said and scrap up whatever oozed out of into the ground for presidential candidate material.
Incidentally, I'm not sure astroturf is an appropriate term for the tea party anymore. They certainly started out that way but since they seem to be gaining control despite party efforts to buck them, perhaps we should start calling them grey goo. Astroturf made out of nano machines gone awry would be the only way to describe how such a thing could turn on it's creators.