Gonna be away the rest of the night. Saw a movie earlier and spent the rest of the day chopping up the dead tree in my front yard. Gonna go have a drink and roast hot dogs with said tree.
0
Options
SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
I think Vertroue disappearing last night is worth investigating further. She led the vote for most of the day, so the Vanisher (who presumably is either Mafia or SK since that's a negative village role) would have had plenty of opportunity to change their target appropriately. Using a kill on somebody who's dying to the vote is obviously wasteful, so I assume there's some reason they didn't change to someone else. A few possibilities of varying plausibility:
1) They weren't around for most of the day.
- Kaplar made his vote early then checked out, but by the time he'd done so Vert already had 3 votes to no more than 1 for anybody else. I would think if he were the Vanisher he'd have noticed that and changed his order accordingly, but mistakes happen.
- Megamek didn't post at all yesterday (or today for that matter). That means he would have missed the Vert bandwagon. The one hitch to this theory is that the Vanisher clearly did send in an order, but mega sending in an order early day 2 and forgetting to vote is plausible.
2) They wanted to conceal Vert's role.
The only people I can think of who would want to cover up somebody's role post-death would be the Mafia, since having a complete vote record is naturally good for the village and an SK would also want to vote out Mafia and thus have nothing to hide vote-wise. This implies either that Vert was Mafia and they wanted to hide the fact we'd hit one of them or that they felt disrupting the vote record was worth sacrificing an abduction on someone else. The former doesn't hold water in my eyes because the Vert bandwagon didn't get above 3 votes until two hours before vote close, which would have been plenty of time to stir up a bandwagon on somebody else. The latter is more plausible I suppose, but I don't think the Mafia would feel like hiding that a villager died would be worth the lost kill.
3) The vanishing is connected to the Vanisher's vote rather than a separate ability.
This seemed more reasonable before I looked at the record. Of the seven people who voted for Vert yesterday none of them voted on day 1 for someone who vanished that night. Likewise nobody voted for enlightenedbum when he vanished. Vert and jdark did vote for each other on day 1, but I'm pretty sure that's a meaningless coincidence.
Of the above possibilities I think Megamek makes the most sense to me.
Low to no activity seems like its a mafia thing from time to time so I guess it can't hurt at least throwing a vote his way to gauge the reaction.
Then again activity on the weekend is pretty abysmal anyway. He hasn't made a post all day, I'm willing to bet that isn't going to change before vote close.
EDIT: i still think TRV is the obvious choice here given his weird-ass behavior, but I'm not going to push for that with 40 minutes to go. we can't have a tie
Griswold, why do you want a consensus vote? I've seen you ask for this before, and consensus votes strike me as obviously bad.
1), they're evidence that the mafia agrees with the vote, because otherwise they'd probably try /something/, and so consensus is some evidence that we've picked the wrong target.
2), they fuck vote records right the hell up. If everybody votes for the same person, we can't generate analysis and reasons against any particular person. We can't, in fact, because we have the same evidence for everybody. The village wants to be able to distinguish players; they want a variety of votes.
Now, I take it your thought is something about preventing vote manipulation, and we should in most cases have a big enough gap to prevent that. But 2-3 is a big enough gap, we don't need consensus, and consensus is bad for the above reasons.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
So we're to the point of just pointing our fingers at inactives? Cool. kime fits that description nicely.
I will damn well give a freaking reason for the vote I decide on as soon as I can look through the thread.
God, subtext is just lost on some people. I'll spell it out. Vertroue disappeared the same night he was voted out. This suggests a drastic lack of attention by the invisi-killer. I think kime is displaying this sort of inattention.
something is weird about the narrations. I do not for a second believe we were so lucky as to kill two SKs in the first two days. I don't know what that means; maybe killers that have the ability to hide their kill's alignment. I will operate under the assumption that I do not know their alignment, though I take them to be at least marginally more likely to be villagers than not.
EDIT: I bet this is Obi's twist; various ways to screw with the narration.
Invictus on
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
So we're to the point of just pointing our fingers at inactives? Cool. kime fits that description nicely.
I will damn well give a freaking reason for the vote I decide on as soon as I can look through the thread.
God, subtext is just lost on some people. I'll spell it out. Vertroue disappeared the same night he was voted out. This suggests a drastic lack of attention by the invisi-killer. I think kime is displaying this sort of inattention.
So, for what it's worth, when I read that narration, it's not clear to me that the black helicopter was /against/ vertroue. That's to say, maybe the black helicopter /saved/ vertroue? Prevented us from lynching her?
But she's gone from the list, in any case. I just think that the move to 'someone vanished her and wasn't paying attention' is far too quick, and kime is not a person I would ever attribute that kind of carelessness to. If kime is an SK (or whatever) that has that power, he'll check to make sure his kill is good, even if he's not posting.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
But she's gone from the list, in any case. I just think that the move to 'someone vanished her and wasn't paying attention' is far too quick, and kime is not a person I would ever attribute that kind of carelessness to. If kime is an SK (or whatever) that has that power, he'll check to make sure his kill is good, even if he's not posting.
Truth. I probably wouldn't put in a kill order for someone close to winning the vote anyways, just in case something happened. Plus I think I was back at least in time to vote for vert myself, because I was pretty sure she was in first or close to it, so it would be silly for me to also kill her.
I'd accept the reason of general lack-of-posting, though. Just not that it implies I'm the invisi-killer
But she's gone from the list, in any case. I just think that the move to 'someone vanished her and wasn't paying attention' is far too quick, and kime is not a person I would ever attribute that kind of carelessness to. If kime is an SK (or whatever) that has that power, he'll check to make sure his kill is good, even if he's not posting.
Truth. I probably wouldn't put in a kill order for someone close to winning the vote anyways, just in case something happened. Plus I think I was back at least in time to vote for vert myself, because I was pretty sure she was in first or close to it, so it would be silly for me to also kill her.
I'd accept the reason of general lack-of-posting, though. Just not that it implies I'm the invisi-killer
Fair enough. But I doubt there are many people who would just come out and admit that they'd make the kind of mistake that the invisi-killer appears to have made. It's not that I think of this as something that you would normally do, but that you're clearly off your game for whatever reason. Doesn't much matter, Megamek appears to be in a nearly unassailable position.
Urgh, well, I go with TheRoadVirus on the basis of the called no-kill, /and/ on the basis that he called his kill.
Why is that suspicious? Because manipulating the narration is a thing in this game. No one else seems interested in calling kills, despite the rumor being that there are many, many kills floating around. So either he's the /only/ village kill of all of those kills, or he's desperate to 'confirm' himself with a narration manipulating kill.
This game has become socially complicated, I think. This is my best bet now; tonight if another 'serial killer' dies that will tend to confirm most of my speculation.
As for being out of character, Mikey, that's fair; I've done a ton of things this week and had little time for either mafia game. But this hour I could give, and tomorrow I can give a significant amount.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Posts
1) They weren't around for most of the day.
- Kaplar made his vote early then checked out, but by the time he'd done so Vert already had 3 votes to no more than 1 for anybody else. I would think if he were the Vanisher he'd have noticed that and changed his order accordingly, but mistakes happen.
- Megamek didn't post at all yesterday (or today for that matter). That means he would have missed the Vert bandwagon. The one hitch to this theory is that the Vanisher clearly did send in an order, but mega sending in an order early day 2 and forgetting to vote is plausible.
2) They wanted to conceal Vert's role.
The only people I can think of who would want to cover up somebody's role post-death would be the Mafia, since having a complete vote record is naturally good for the village and an SK would also want to vote out Mafia and thus have nothing to hide vote-wise. This implies either that Vert was Mafia and they wanted to hide the fact we'd hit one of them or that they felt disrupting the vote record was worth sacrificing an abduction on someone else. The former doesn't hold water in my eyes because the Vert bandwagon didn't get above 3 votes until two hours before vote close, which would have been plenty of time to stir up a bandwagon on somebody else. The latter is more plausible I suppose, but I don't think the Mafia would feel like hiding that a villager died would be worth the lost kill.
3) The vanishing is connected to the Vanisher's vote rather than a separate ability.
This seemed more reasonable before I looked at the record. Of the seven people who voted for Vert yesterday none of them voted on day 1 for someone who vanished that night. Likewise nobody voted for enlightenedbum when he vanished. Vert and jdark did vote for each other on day 1, but I'm pretty sure that's a meaningless coincidence.
Of the above possibilities I think Megamek makes the most sense to me.
I'm shocked.
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
Many people aren't ready to leave their homes, though
Low to no activity seems like its a mafia thing from time to time so I guess it can't hurt at least throwing a vote his way to gauge the reaction.
Then again activity on the weekend is pretty abysmal anyway. He hasn't made a post all day, I'm willing to bet that isn't going to change before vote close.
Don't expect too much from me
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
Vote Count
megamek 3: (smasher, i needed a name to post, bradicusmaximus)
theroadvirus 2: (mrtlicious, griswold)
gizzy 1: (kaplar)
kaplar 1: (gizzy)
invictus 1: (premium)
No votes by:
@xenogears of bore
@mikey cts
@kime
@cesareb
@the_anonymous
invictus
megamek
theroadvirus
captainplanet82
@mikey cts
@invictus
@megamek
@theroadvirus
@captainplanet82
Messed those up before.
EDIT: i still think TRV is the obvious choice here given his weird-ass behavior, but I'm not going to push for that with 40 minutes to go. we can't have a tie
Path of Exile: snowcrash7
MTG Arena: Snow_Crash#34179
Battle.net: Snowcrash#1873
Griswold, why do you want a consensus vote? I've seen you ask for this before, and consensus votes strike me as obviously bad.
1), they're evidence that the mafia agrees with the vote, because otherwise they'd probably try /something/, and so consensus is some evidence that we've picked the wrong target.
2), they fuck vote records right the hell up. If everybody votes for the same person, we can't generate analysis and reasons against any particular person. We can't, in fact, because we have the same evidence for everybody. The village wants to be able to distinguish players; they want a variety of votes.
Now, I take it your thought is something about preventing vote manipulation, and we should in most cases have a big enough gap to prevent that. But 2-3 is a big enough gap, we don't need consensus, and consensus is bad for the above reasons.
I will damn well give a freaking reason for the vote I decide on as soon as I can look through the thread.
Island Name: Felinefine
But I'm leaving it because I think it's funny anyway.
God, subtext is just lost on some people. I'll spell it out. Vertroue disappeared the same night he was voted out. This suggests a drastic lack of attention by the invisi-killer. I think kime is displaying this sort of inattention.
something is weird about the narrations. I do not for a second believe we were so lucky as to kill two SKs in the first two days. I don't know what that means; maybe killers that have the ability to hide their kill's alignment. I will operate under the assumption that I do not know their alignment, though I take them to be at least marginally more likely to be villagers than not.
EDIT: I bet this is Obi's twist; various ways to screw with the narration.
Therefore evillllllll
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
So, for what it's worth, when I read that narration, it's not clear to me that the black helicopter was /against/ vertroue. That's to say, maybe the black helicopter /saved/ vertroue? Prevented us from lynching her?
But she's gone from the list, in any case. I just think that the move to 'someone vanished her and wasn't paying attention' is far too quick, and kime is not a person I would ever attribute that kind of carelessness to. If kime is an SK (or whatever) that has that power, he'll check to make sure his kill is good, even if he's not posting.
Truth. I probably wouldn't put in a kill order for someone close to winning the vote anyways, just in case something happened. Plus I think I was back at least in time to vote for vert myself, because I was pretty sure she was in first or close to it, so it would be silly for me to also kill her.
I'd accept the reason of general lack-of-posting, though. Just not that it implies I'm the invisi-killer
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
Megamek's who all the cool kids are voting for right
Has it actually been working correctly for you thus far?
Fair enough. But I doubt there are many people who would just come out and admit that they'd make the kind of mistake that the invisi-killer appears to have made. It's not that I think of this as something that you would normally do, but that you're clearly off your game for whatever reason. Doesn't much matter, Megamek appears to be in a nearly unassailable position.
Why is that suspicious? Because manipulating the narration is a thing in this game. No one else seems interested in calling kills, despite the rumor being that there are many, many kills floating around. So either he's the /only/ village kill of all of those kills, or he's desperate to 'confirm' himself with a narration manipulating kill.
This game has become socially complicated, I think. This is my best bet now; tonight if another 'serial killer' dies that will tend to confirm most of my speculation.
As for being out of character, Mikey, that's fair; I've done a ton of things this week and had little time for either mafia game. But this hour I could give, and tomorrow I can give a significant amount.
Or not. Invictus
First post of the day people!