The village has been hunting sun tzu over the course of the first few days. Less random there.
The mafia has been killing ronrab, anialos, and possibly a few others (phyphor) over and over.
The only thing is, i dont have much of an idea how to correct for less random. Maybe an increasing accuracy function over days?
I'm going to take a quick look through the kill lists. In case it's not obvious, is there a way to attribute non-permanent kills to either mafia or village?
I think a more reasonable formulation is something like: What's the probability that, under some random kill scenario, the village hasn't killed all the mafia by the end of 4 days?
I'm going to take a quick look through the kill lists. In case it's not obvious, is there a way to attribute non-permanent kills to either mafia or village?
I think a more reasonable formulation is something like: What's the probability that, under some random kill scenario, the village hasn't killed all the mafia by the end of 4 days?
Everyone's died but Cythraul, so we'll find out in a couple hours. And no, we can't attribute kills unless they've been called.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
I'm going to take a quick look through the kill lists. In case it's not obvious, is there a way to attribute non-permanent kills to either mafia or village?
I think a more reasonable formulation is something like: What's the probability that, under some random kill scenario, the village hasn't killed all the mafia by the end of 4 days?
No way to attribute temp kills to either side. 38th doe claimed some kills, then died green. Ronrab claimed special, and has died every day since. The best way to lay it out is to compare who dies at each day across the jumps.
Hm, it seems like the number of kills has been extremely variable.
But I think the intuition behind the sim is solid, even if I don't buy the numbers. Mafia kill non-mafia. Villagers strike randomly -> Villagers are more likely to be temp killed than are mafia, even controlling for population size. -> People that haven't been temp killed are more likely to be mafia than a randomly chosen person from the player list.
Cythraul is as good a bet as any from my naive perspective (sorry guy!)
Though I will hedge and say that I think the 80% is inflated so I won't be too surprised if he isn't.
SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
I think there's a flaw in the simming argument. The village has a pretty strong incentive to spread out kills to gain information about more people via the narration. The mafia will also gain information about specials from this, but overall unless I'm missing something the narration is a net village gain. Because of this the Mafia has a smaller incentive to spread out its kills, both because the information it gains is probably less necessary and to avoid the very process we're discussing now. The sim assumes an essentially random set of Mafia kills instead of a more focused one and thus I have to question the results.
Let's do a more concrete example. For simplicity I'm assuming there's one Mafia group; if that assumption is false it doesn't matter because there would then be Mafia crossfire while the sim assumes there's none, invalidating the results of the sim. Four people hadn't been temp killed as of yesterday: Assuran, Cythraul, Jpants, and Tzeentchling. Either the Mafia killed one or more of the people in that group last night or they didn't.
If they did, then either 1) Cythraul is not Mafia or 2) Cythraul is Mafia, and the Mafia killed some or all of the cover for one of their own members in a rather conspicuous group. I have trouble believing this.
If the Mafia did not kill anyone in that group of 4 then the other 3 kills were from some combination of village or SK. If the Temp killers had no information then their choice of kills among the 4 was basically arbitrary and Cythraul being left out gives no meaningful information.
That said none of this is evidence that Cythraul isn't Mafia, just that the simming argument doesn't work. Also, I would be pretty annoyed if I were PermaKilled for not being TempKilled.
This list isn't completely accurate. Kilnaga is dead. Lucedes was dead Jump3/Day2, and capfalcon was dead Jump2/Day2. Yuen showed up on day4 both of those jumps. It was nice of you to include yourself though.
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SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
Going by the narrations I feel pretty comfortable with the assumption that there's at least one American and one Chinese person/group with the ability to influence when we end up.
I don't think the math feels like solid reasoning for Cythraul but he's so far in the lead I don't feel it's worth it to put my echo on someone else.
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SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
Not seeing anything strong so I'm going with Assuran. He was TempKilled for the first time last night on Day 2 and that was the best day yet, so... :shrug:
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The AnonymousUh, uh, uhhhhhh...Uh, uh.Registered Userregular
ObiFettUse the ForceAs You WishRegistered Userregular
edited May 2013
Jump 6 – Day 6 (April 2nd, 2356)
There was a light and immense pain. Then you remember something. The light felt the most bright, this time(?), like it was attempting to reach the most futurepast. The pain dimmed the light, though, and here you are, before the when the light wanted you to be, trying to remember. No, “remember” isn’t quite right. But somehow it is? You remember the past but at the same time, you foresee it? The next, and past(?), 6 years are there in your memory, although much of it is … “blurry”? No… “foggy”? No… “shifting”? YES. Much of it is shifting except for 7 very specific days. You write down the specifics onto a nearby piece of paper and look it over. There has to be something you can do about this…
May 24th, 2351 – Declaration of War
Dr. Paul-Henri Durand, the pioneer of Time Science and only person to successfully manipulate time, “defects” to the Asian Empire from America. The American government, convinced the defection was coerced or possibly a kidnapping, wastes no time in declaring war. The Asian Empire strikes first, however, when Shàngjiàng Yuen gives the order to launch a barrage of Mark X missiles from their satellites in space. America’s Ballistic Defense System performs well in its first wartime test, shooting down 98% of the threats and casualties are limited to the thousands. General Gomez starts his charge into the Pacific and begins a campaign that defeats the Asian Empire at nearly every turn.
Dead
phyphor
August 3rd, 2352 – Defense of Seoul
General Stevens leads the beachhead into the state of Korea and makes progress as far as Seoul in one day. The Koreans make a valiant defense of Seoul but eventually lose control before nightfall. Intel suggests that Asian Empire military command is experiencing infighting, which may account for their lack of defensive capabilities. America announces the creation of a Time Science department headed up by Dr. Roth.
Dead
38thDoe
Smasher
February 13th, 2353 – Invasion of Cape Canaveral
When American forces pushed up to the border of the state of China, the Asian Empire sued for peace. A month later, General Porter and Ambassador Maynard meet with Shàngjiàng Yuen to go over the terms of the Asian Empire’s surrender. Hours before the meeting was set to begin, unmarked troops embark from stealth cruisers and take control of Florida’s Cape Canaveral. Peace talks are called off and American troops invade China. In the month following, millions of Chinese die.
Dead
Anialos
kime
tzeentchling
March 1st, 2354 – S-Day
America adds another Nobel prize winner, Dr. Johnson, to its Time Science department. Rumors are that the country is making significant strides in tech. In other news, during the year since the invasion of Cape Canaveral, America had learned the Mediterranean Ascendancy was responsible and declared a second war, opening a new front and weakening their strength in Asia. As a result, American troops were pushed out of Asia, due in large part to Shàngjiàng Yuen, and are backed up to the California Coastline. To the East, the Mediterranean Ascendancy had repelled all naval and air attacks into their territory and amassed a giant fleet within striking distance of America’s eastern coastline. Stratigos Mancini coordinates the Coalition forces of the Asian Empire and Mediterranean Ascendancy simultaneous invasion of both American coastlines. Almost a million casualties result from the battles and the Coalition gains a a deep foothold in both of America’s borders.
Dead
Invictus
Jpants
Locus
MrBlarney
Spoit
June 27th, 2355 – Mediterranean Ascendancy Surrenders
America yet again buffs its Time Science department by adding Dr. Carrillo to the list of powerful Time Science researchers working on technology innovation. After months of holding off the invaders, Coalition forces strike to huge blows on the same day. Stratigos Mancini focusing solely on the Eastern front, leads a strike team of Mediterranean Ascendancy into Fort Knox, KY and has control of the vault for an entire day. On the Western front, a new Asian Empire leader, Shàngjiàng Sun Tzu outmaneuvers American General Webb and hands America its first major loss on its own soil.
Dead
cesareB
Flarne
SeGaTai
April 4th, 2356 – Defense of California
After the looting of Fort Knox, Stratigos Mancini was never seen again. As a result, the Mediterranean Ascendancy’s forces were thrown into disarray and were eventually pushed off of American soil. On this day, they officially declared peace with America and America was now again fighting a one front war. Unfortunately, that one front was proving nearly unwinnable as Shàngjiàng Sun Tzu was handing defeat after defeat to the American military. In what would be the beginning of the end, American General Boyd drew a line in the sand stating that no enemy would cross the Mississippi. The Asian Empire did just that, however, killing hundreds of thousands in the process. Rumors are that America is getting desperate and may deploy a time based weapon in the near future.
Dead
enlightenedbum
The_Anonymous
Zombie Hero
September 28th, 2357 – Rain of Fire
Shàngjiàng Sun Tzu, seemingly waiting for supplies, allows the Americans to regroup. Giving them enough time to consolidate outside of Washington, DC, the Asian Empire general springs his trap. AE spies had gained access to America’s Ballistic Defense System just days before. With the BDS hacked and offline, missiles rained down from above, decimating the American army. The bulk of the American military is wiped out.
Dead
SLyM
January 21st, 2358 – Battle of Beijing
Shàngjiàng Sun Tzu makes his final push on America’s capitol with ease. Rail Tanks roll onto the White House lawn. The President makes the fateful call to the Time Science department. The Anomaly is created.
THE ENEMIES OF AMERICA ARE VICTORIOUS
…And then the light and pain.
______________________________________
PLAYER UPDATES
Removed from the Anomaly during the JUMP: (The following can not vote, post, or communicate with any players in the game while it is still running. They are permanently removed from the game.) Cythraul, Dr. Paul-Henri Durand - Consensus Iron Weasel, President Onyejekwe - Rénmín de yìzhì lucedes, Tagmatarchis Shaban Naceri - Wil van die mense
JUMP 1 AuraLynx, Ambassador Nnamani - Consensus
JUMP 2 Anialos, Major and/or General Gibson - Consensus MrBlarney, Dr. Kent - Rénmín de yìzhì Langly, Stratigos Mancini - Wil van die mense
JUMP 3 Zonugal, Pivotal Role - Consensus jdarksun, General Stevens - Rénmín de yìzhì premium, General Porter - Wil van die mense
JUMP 4 Gizzy, Josh Harvin and/or Shàngjiàng Sun Tzu - Consensus 38thDoe, Captain Rojas - Rénmín de yìzhì kime, Major Rice - Wil van die mense kilnaga, Major Black - Atrophied from the Anomaly (Inactivus)
Dead during this JUMP: (The following can not vote, post or communicate with any players for this JUMP, aka "game day", only. They may be alive during the next JUMP, so should continue to watch the thread.) phyphor
Smasher
tzeentchling
Invictus
Jpants
Locus
Spoit
cesareB
Flarne
SeGaTai
_____________________________________
PMs are going out now. Please do not discuss anything until after I say the JUMP has officially started
Truthfully? Today was a bit of a long-weekend-writeoff for me. Kinda sucks since echoing votes and all, but I haven't had the time for analysis and voting for a one-off I find mildly suspicious seemed more damaging than solidifying someone for the vote.
So frankly INANTP would get my vote for trying to start a role call. That's just terrible. Not gonna move my vote and create a tie though.
Unfortunately, 38th died and the day one kill was blocked. My guess (and it's purely a guess) is we can win if we get yesterday's narration with the addition of Cythraul's death.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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ObiFettUse the ForceAs You WishRegistered Userregular
Does this mean no more purple kills? Would be kind of handy since our purple killer has hit more villagers than mafia.
Anyways, we need to get both Gizzy and Langly dead early on in the timeline again since that made things much more favorable for the US. Cythraul would also be another good candidate to make dead earlier in the timeline. Granted with so few left, I'm guessing 2-3, I wouldn't be opposed if (assuming we still have one alive) a tempt vig hit the remaining mafia, provided they have enough info to go off of.
Looking at Flarne's earlier list of potential Shàngjiàng Yuen candidate and removing the dead from it and smasher who dies well before Yuen's last appearance we're left with:
1 - MegafrostMrTLicious
3 - SLyM
6 - capfalcon
8 - enlightenedbum
17 - cesareB
22 - JPants
23 - SeGaTai
26 - Flarne
29 - Zombie Hero
30 - Locus
39 - Spoit
I'll see if I can get around to color coding some votes records and see if we can make sense of things. Yuen is kind of bitch to find with this method since S Day always seems to be his last appearance for any jumps following the first one. Plus, 11 names is a lot to sort through to find one guy, so the vote records at this point are probably going to be much more useful for our purposes because there are at least 1-2 mafia running around that aren't listed in narration. We should also look at the votes for all individuals that have been permanently killed by the mafia and any temp kills that were 38th's doing. We might be able to get some leads from there as well.
It certainly is interesting that Locus is the only one to consistently die on S Day out of that list of 11 potential suspects. It's also interesting how Yuen who is rather important to the Asian Empire always disappears after S Day. Coincidence, maybe, but I'd think that if Yuen wasn't busy being dead on days past S Day, that he would show up in narration.
Yuen doesn't get a mention after s day in the opening either though. Also locus consistently dying likely just means someone put in an order to kill him then and is now out of the game. I think we'd stand to gain more from looking at yesterday's vote records.
Posts
The mafia has been killing ronrab, anialos, and possibly a few others (phyphor) over and over.
The only thing is, i dont have much of an idea how to correct for less random. Maybe an increasing accuracy function over days?
Nintendo ID: Pastalonius
Smite\LoL:Gremlidin \ WoW & Overwatch & Hots: Gremlidin#1734
3ds: 3282-2248-0453
Today is my birthday, so narration will be late again.
Yeah, that says to me the sim doesn't accurately reflect the setting to an extent. Target selection is clearly not random.
Nintendo ID: Pastalonius
Smite\LoL:Gremlidin \ WoW & Overwatch & Hots: Gremlidin#1734
3ds: 3282-2248-0453
Also I hope everything with the wife was ok.
Nintendo ID: Pastalonius
Smite\LoL:Gremlidin \ WoW & Overwatch & Hots: Gremlidin#1734
3ds: 3282-2248-0453
I think a more reasonable formulation is something like: What's the probability that, under some random kill scenario, the village hasn't killed all the mafia by the end of 4 days?
Everyone's died but Cythraul, so we'll find out in a couple hours. And no, we can't attribute kills unless they've been called.
No way to attribute temp kills to either side. 38th doe claimed some kills, then died green. Ronrab claimed special, and has died every day since. The best way to lay it out is to compare who dies at each day across the jumps.
Nintendo ID: Pastalonius
Smite\LoL:Gremlidin \ WoW & Overwatch & Hots: Gremlidin#1734
3ds: 3282-2248-0453
http://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/26852702/#Comment_26852702
Nintendo ID: Pastalonius
Smite\LoL:Gremlidin \ WoW & Overwatch & Hots: Gremlidin#1734
3ds: 3282-2248-0453
Everything ended up being ok, thanks for asking. We were there for almost 3 hours though.
But I think the intuition behind the sim is solid, even if I don't buy the numbers. Mafia kill non-mafia. Villagers strike randomly -> Villagers are more likely to be temp killed than are mafia, even controlling for population size. -> People that haven't been temp killed are more likely to be mafia than a randomly chosen person from the player list.
Cythraul is as good a bet as any from my naive perspective (sorry guy!)
Though I will hedge and say that I think the 80% is inflated so I won't be too surprised if he isn't.
Cythraul
Let's do a more concrete example. For simplicity I'm assuming there's one Mafia group; if that assumption is false it doesn't matter because there would then be Mafia crossfire while the sim assumes there's none, invalidating the results of the sim. Four people hadn't been temp killed as of yesterday: Assuran, Cythraul, Jpants, and Tzeentchling. Either the Mafia killed one or more of the people in that group last night or they didn't.
If they did, then either 1) Cythraul is not Mafia or 2) Cythraul is Mafia, and the Mafia killed some or all of the cover for one of their own members in a rather conspicuous group. I have trouble believing this.
If the Mafia did not kill anyone in that group of 4 then the other 3 kills were from some combination of village or SK. If the Temp killers had no information then their choice of kills among the 4 was basically arbitrary and Cythraul being left out gives no meaningful information.
That said none of this is evidence that Cythraul isn't Mafia, just that the simming argument doesn't work. Also, I would be pretty annoyed if I were PermaKilled for not being TempKilled.
Nintendo ID: Pastalonius
Smite\LoL:Gremlidin \ WoW & Overwatch & Hots: Gremlidin#1734
3ds: 3282-2248-0453
Blarney had a minor power relating to it but didn't clarify exactly how it worked before he died.
This list isn't completely accurate. Kilnaga is dead. Lucedes was dead Jump3/Day2, and capfalcon was dead Jump2/Day2. Yuen showed up on day4 both of those jumps. It was nice of you to include yourself though.
BRB ANGSTING FOREVER
(JUMP ended and vote closed 15 mins ago, narration later.)
There was a light and immense pain. Then you remember something. The light felt the most bright, this time(?), like it was attempting to reach the most futurepast. The pain dimmed the light, though, and here you are, before the when the light wanted you to be, trying to remember. No, “remember” isn’t quite right. But somehow it is? You remember the past but at the same time, you foresee it? The next, and past(?), 6 years are there in your memory, although much of it is … “blurry”? No… “foggy”? No… “shifting”? YES. Much of it is shifting except for 7 very specific days. You write down the specifics onto a nearby piece of paper and look it over. There has to be something you can do about this…
May 24th, 2351 – Declaration of War
phyphor
August 3rd, 2352 – Defense of Seoul
38thDoe
Smasher
February 13th, 2353 – Invasion of Cape Canaveral
Anialos
kime
tzeentchling
March 1st, 2354 – S-Day
Invictus
Jpants
Locus
MrBlarney
Spoit
June 27th, 2355 – Mediterranean Ascendancy Surrenders
cesareB
Flarne
SeGaTai
April 4th, 2356 – Defense of California
enlightenedbum
The_Anonymous
Zombie Hero
September 28th, 2357 – Rain of Fire
SLyM
January 21st, 2358 – Battle of Beijing
THE ENEMIES OF AMERICA ARE VICTORIOUS
…And then the light and pain.
______________________________________
PLAYER UPDATES
Removed from the Anomaly during the JUMP:
(The following can not vote, post, or communicate with any players in the game while it is still running. They are permanently removed from the game.)
Cythraul, Dr. Paul-Henri Durand - Consensus
Iron Weasel, President Onyejekwe - Rénmín de yìzhì
lucedes, Tagmatarchis Shaban Naceri - Wil van die mense
AuraLynx, Ambassador Nnamani - Consensus
JUMP 2
Anialos, Major and/or General Gibson - Consensus
MrBlarney, Dr. Kent - Rénmín de yìzhì
Langly, Stratigos Mancini - Wil van die mense
JUMP 3
Zonugal, Pivotal Role - Consensus
jdarksun, General Stevens - Rénmín de yìzhì
premium, General Porter - Wil van die mense
JUMP 4
Gizzy, Josh Harvin and/or Shàngjiàng Sun Tzu - Consensus
38thDoe, Captain Rojas - Rénmín de yìzhì
kime, Major Rice - Wil van die mense
kilnaga, Major Black - Atrophied from the Anomaly (Inactivus)
Dead during this JUMP:
(The following can not vote, post or communicate with any players for this JUMP, aka "game day", only. They may be alive during the next JUMP, so should continue to watch the thread.)
phyphor
Smasher
tzeentchling
Invictus
Jpants
Locus
Spoit
cesareB
Flarne
SeGaTai
_____________________________________
PMs are going out now. Please do not discuss anything until after I say the JUMP has officially started
@I needed a name to post
@ronrab
You are all no longer temporarily dead. You may post, vote, and change any orders (if applicable).
______________________________________________________________
PMs are out.
JUMP 6 ends Thursday at 10pm PDT / Midnight CDT
Sorry, mistake on my part. That was supposed to be Iron Weasel.
WORLD'S GREATEST VOTE RECORD LET'S GO THREE FOR THREE tzeentchling
everyone reveal to me
JUMP 5 June 27th, 2355 has been changed, General Webb added
Anyways, we need to get both Gizzy and Langly dead early on in the timeline again since that made things much more favorable for the US. Cythraul would also be another good candidate to make dead earlier in the timeline. Granted with so few left, I'm guessing 2-3, I wouldn't be opposed if (assuming we still have one alive) a tempt vig hit the remaining mafia, provided they have enough info to go off of.
Looking at Flarne's earlier list of potential Shàngjiàng Yuen candidate and removing the dead from it and smasher who dies well before Yuen's last appearance we're left with:
1 - MegafrostMrTLicious
3 - SLyM
6 - capfalcon
8 - enlightenedbum
17 - cesareB
22 - JPants
23 - SeGaTai
26 - Flarne
29 - Zombie Hero
30 - Locus
39 - Spoit
I'll see if I can get around to color coding some votes records and see if we can make sense of things. Yuen is kind of bitch to find with this method since S Day always seems to be his last appearance for any jumps following the first one. Plus, 11 names is a lot to sort through to find one guy, so the vote records at this point are probably going to be much more useful for our purposes because there are at least 1-2 mafia running around that aren't listed in narration. We should also look at the votes for all individuals that have been permanently killed by the mafia and any temp kills that were 38th's doing. We might be able to get some leads from there as well.
Edit: to account host error.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
JUMP 6 March 1st, 2354 has been changed, Shàngjiàng Yuen added
AGAIN!!!
Jump 2
-Spoit
-Locus
Jump 3
-capfalcon
-Invictus
-Locus
-MegaFrostMrTLicious
-Spoit
Jump 4
-capfalcon
-Invictus
-Locus
-Spoit
Jump 5
-Invictus
-Jpants
-Locus
Jump 6
-Invictus
-Jpants
-Locus
-Spoit
It certainly is interesting that Locus is the only one to consistently die on S Day out of that list of 11 potential suspects. It's also interesting how Yuen who is rather important to the Asian Empire always disappears after S Day. Coincidence, maybe, but I'd think that if Yuen wasn't busy being dead on days past S Day, that he would show up in narration.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.