So, Hong Kong's protestors dwindled down to a few hundred or so... and Cy Leung has now called off the negotiations that were supposed to happen today.
Which isn't surprising.
As much harm as violence can do, I think the protests being so relatively peaceful and well mannered allowed China to just wait them out and lose steam. Unless the call to action can get a sizable body of people out there with more dedication, I think all that will happen is that the HK police will just wait until a manageable number of people is left and just clear them out.
Or maybe even just ignore them altogether if they are sort of out of the way.
CorehealerThe ApothecaryThe softer edge of the universe.Registered Userregular
I think he's probably actually sick, but who knows what with, and what that will actually mean. North Korea is pretty hard to predict as a rule, and this is just another wrench in that difficult process.
I wouldn't start expecting the collapse of the Hermit Kingdom though. Even if Un is out of commision for the long term for whatever reason, China will most likely make some effort to prevent a collapse short of a direct intervention.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Plot twist: Un has Ebola
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I'm sorry, I thought you were talking about the organizers in Hong Kong.
I'm sorry, I thought you were talking about the organizers in Hong Kong.
Your point is still correct though. The last thing Beijing needs is a new Tiananmen moment, let alone with the ubiquity of social media. Things as they are going now with the protests fizzling out, while indicating unrest and highlighting valid complaints, is probably the best outcome the Communist Party could ask for right now.
More unrest will most likely come, but who can say where or when or in what form. Hong Kong isn't the only place in China with complaints.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
They simply lacked the will and support to keep the larger protest going long term. Sucks, but dem's the breaks.
Oh, I didn't mean violence. But that being so polite and eventually "fizzling" did them no good. They really needed to keep more people out and supporting it.
I hear more came out after the talks were cancelled, but who knows how long they will keep it going and what impact it will have now that it's fizzled once already.
I'm sorry, I thought you were talking about the organizers in Hong Kong.
Your point is still correct though. The last thing Beijing needs is a new Tiananmen moment, let alone with the ubiquity of social media. Things as they are going now with the protests fizzling out, while indicating unrest and highlighting valid complaints, is probably the best outcome the Communist Party could ask for right now.
More unrest will most likely come, but who can say where or when or in what form. Hong Kong isn't the only place in China with complaints.
Well, back in 1988, nobody thought Tienanmen Square would happen then either. So far, the HK protests have largely been kept out of view of the Chinese public, at least in terms of anything resembling a semi-official channel. If there's been social media/underground leaks, I haven't really heard of them. And... honestly, China might not give any fucks what the rest of the world thinks; what are you going to do, stop making stuff in/buying stuff from China? Your smartphone already costs $500 now....
I'm sorry, I thought you were talking about the organizers in Hong Kong.
Your point is still correct though. The last thing Beijing needs is a new Tiananmen moment, let alone with the ubiquity of social media. Things as they are going now with the protests fizzling out, while indicating unrest and highlighting valid complaints, is probably the best outcome the Communist Party could ask for right now.
More unrest will most likely come, but who can say where or when or in what form. Hong Kong isn't the only place in China with complaints.
Well, back in 1988, nobody thought Tienanmen Square would happen then either. So far, the HK protests have largely been kept out of view of the Chinese public, at least in terms of anything resembling a semi-official channel. If there's been social media/underground leaks, I haven't really heard of them. And... honestly, China might not give any fucks what the rest of the world thinks; what are you going to do, stop making stuff in/buying stuff from China? Your smartphone already costs $500 now....
They do care about what the rest of the world thinks when it comes to stability especially in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong isn't the 15% of GDP that it was when it was returned to China but it is still the main source of foreign investment into China and the port which the oligarchs ship their money overseas. This is because of its stable rule of law structure. There is a reason Shanghai is not the financial hub of China.
Also at this point you might not have as many sanctions on China but you would have a similar pull out of investment from China.
Some of which is already occurring because they have been so aggressive towards their neighbors recently.
Of course we practice for fights against everybody. Hell I am pretty sure we have an updated and current plan to invade Canada. Just in case.
But I think we take the prep for China more seriously. If only because Xi seems to be really balls out on pissing everybody else in the region off.
Well, that, and China can be portrayed as a big enough threat to justify fancy new toys.
But clearly, Beijing is eager to help in that endeavor. They might have been able to play Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines off against each other if they'd been less broad in their claims, but not now.
Any one remember the annual Soviet Military Power reports? My small town rural NZ library had a copy annotated by people disbelieving of the numbers. It was quite neat.
Freedom for the Northern Isles!
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
That reporter should look up the definition of sensationalizing.
Also I'm sad that my mad fantasy is over in north korea.
See, China still gets its buffer zone. It just might be glowing a bit more than anticipated if they try to intervene in a Korean conflict. Ironically, an nuclear wasteland would be safer than the DPRK government.
I'm sorry, I thought you were talking about the organizers in Hong Kong.
Your point is still correct though. The last thing Beijing needs is a new Tiananmen moment, let alone with the ubiquity of social media. Things as they are going now with the protests fizzling out, while indicating unrest and highlighting valid complaints, is probably the best outcome the Communist Party could ask for right now.
More unrest will most likely come, but who can say where or when or in what form. Hong Kong isn't the only place in China with complaints.
Well, back in 1988, nobody thought Tienanmen Square would happen then either. So far, the HK protests have largely been kept out of view of the Chinese public, at least in terms of anything resembling a semi-official channel. If there's been social media/underground leaks, I haven't really heard of them. And... honestly, China might not give any fucks what the rest of the world thinks; what are you going to do, stop making stuff in/buying stuff from China? Your smartphone already costs $500 now....
They do care about what the rest of the world thinks when it comes to stability especially in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong isn't the 15% of GDP that it was when it was returned to China but it is still the main source of foreign investment into China and the port which the oligarchs ship their money overseas. This is because of its stable rule of law structure. There is a reason Shanghai is not the financial hub of China.
Also at this point you might not have as many sanctions on China but you would have a similar pull out of investment from China.
Some of which is already occurring because they have been so aggressive towards their neighbors recently.
Not really? I mean, I don't understand where that comparison comes from. Kato is a bureau chief for a newspaper with a circulation larger than the New York Times, one of the major Japanese dailies. And he didn't lie about Park. He's nothing like a birther.
I managed to dig up the original article. Here's my translation of the part that seems to have gotten Kato into trouble:
Dissatisfaction towards [a lack of transparency about President Park's activities the day the ferry sank] has led to a certain rumors spreading. A representative example is a column from South Korea's largest daily paper, the Chosun Ilbo, that appeared on July 18 under the title of "Rumors about the President".
The column noted that according to the report released by the Blue House secretariat on President Park's activities on July 7, the day of the Sewol's accident, President Park met with no one between about 10 am and her visit to the Central Disaster Taskforce Headquarters at 7 pm. It then continues:
"When Chief Kim answered 'I don't know' , it was likely done to protect the president. But this statement has been interpreted to mean that part of the president's schedule has been concealed. The rumor that 'the president was with a "秘線" arose among the public."
Now, "秘線" is a difficult expression, hard to find even in Korean dictionaries. But it appears to mean "a person one meets with secretly". The writer of the column clearly had a specific individual in mind. The column continues:
"A rumor about the president had appeared a little earlier in the weekly tabloid and financial information magazines." This rumor is said to have been so vulgar that "a knowledgeable person" said that "just speaking it would tarnish me."
So what was the rumor? According to a contact in the financial world, the rumor had to do with President Park's relationship with a man, a former close associate in Park's Saenuri Party who is now married. But the contact refused to be any more specific. He further said that "the rumor is already being erased from the Korean internet and you can't find it". It's becoming a kind of urban legend. It wasn't explicitly stated in the Chosun Ilbo column that the rumor had to do with President Park's personal relationships. The writer of the column just made clear that "in that way (as a vulgar thing), this rumor is being treated as 'news', and not as mere idle talk."
Just when I thought the column was going to end without explaining what exactly the rumor was, it suddenly gave a specific name:
"The rumor became more dramatic when the divorce of Chung Yoon-hoi, the rumored individual, was confirmed."
Chung served as Park's secretary for 7 years before she became president.
According to the column, Chung demanded that his wife treat everything she heard or saw during their marriage as "confidential" as well not ask for any money or assets as a condition of the divorce.
It seems likely that the person the financial world contact had in mind as President Park's "秘線" was Chung. But there was also a political contact who claimed that "the rumor about Park doesn't have to do with Chung, but rather with Chung's father-in-law." So things aren't clear-cut.
Sure, he was reporting on rumors. But given that he both explicitly stated that he was repeating rumors and quoted a respected Korean newspaper multiple times as he did so, he didn't defame anybody. This case is complete bullshit, full stop.
It's totally true that Kato is a great scapegoat. The newspaper he works for is a terrible right-wing rag. I went into the article with that in mind and changed my mind so fast I got whiplash.
But then it's easy to forget how young South Korean democracy is, and that this government has massively restricted the sale of Japanese media in SK. They have strongly conservative and authoritarian elements prominent within the government.
You ever get the feeling that the nationalism in China and the South China Sea bullshit is to distract the populous from the fact that the government is sitting on about a billion problems and when one of them goes, it'll domino into an utter catastrophe.
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Captain Marcusnow arrives the hour of actionRegistered Userregular
You ever get the feeling that the nationalism in China and the South China Sea bullshit is to distract the populous from the fact that the government is sitting on about a billion problems and when one of them goes, it'll domino into an utter catastrophe.
India does the same (presumably with Kashmir vs Pakistan) with their rebel groups/internal problems (and there are a bunch)
You ever get the feeling that the nationalism in China and the South China Sea bullshit is to distract the populous from the fact that the government is sitting on about a billion problems and when one of them goes, it'll domino into an utter catastrophe.
Nationalism is a great distraction from structural issues.
I mean every country has problems but if if you focus on external stuff your internal peace keeping is much easier.
You ever get the feeling that the nationalism in China and the South China Sea bullshit is to distract the populous from the fact that the government is sitting on about a billion problems and when one of them goes, it'll domino into an utter catastrophe.
I think that's the common narrative, yeah. And I agree.
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BBC's early report on Un's no show at Kumsusan Palace.
bbc.com/news/world-asia-29563837
- John Stuart Mill
Which isn't surprising.
As much harm as violence can do, I think the protests being so relatively peaceful and well mannered allowed China to just wait them out and lose steam. Unless the call to action can get a sizable body of people out there with more dedication, I think all that will happen is that the HK police will just wait until a manageable number of people is left and just clear them out.
Or maybe even just ignore them altogether if they are sort of out of the way.
They simply lacked the will and support to keep the larger protest going long term. Sucks, but dem's the breaks.
If China does push through more restrictive laws you're going to see more people on the street. Also an economic downturn would help alot.
This isnt over its just the beginning.
Un
Dead or in a tiny cell somewhere?
Honestly, we're so much more interconnected I don't see them pulling a Tienanmen man on the students.
Probably neither.
But maybe sick. Or maybe just hiding for reasons.
I wouldn't start expecting the collapse of the Hermit Kingdom though. Even if Un is out of commision for the long term for whatever reason, China will most likely make some effort to prevent a collapse short of a direct intervention.
No no he is Ebola!
Your point is still correct though. The last thing Beijing needs is a new Tiananmen moment, let alone with the ubiquity of social media. Things as they are going now with the protests fizzling out, while indicating unrest and highlighting valid complaints, is probably the best outcome the Communist Party could ask for right now.
More unrest will most likely come, but who can say where or when or in what form. Hong Kong isn't the only place in China with complaints.
Mother of God
Oh, I didn't mean violence. But that being so polite and eventually "fizzling" did them no good. They really needed to keep more people out and supporting it.
I hear more came out after the talks were cancelled, but who knows how long they will keep it going and what impact it will have now that it's fizzled once already.
Well, back in 1988, nobody thought Tienanmen Square would happen then either. So far, the HK protests have largely been kept out of view of the Chinese public, at least in terms of anything resembling a semi-official channel. If there's been social media/underground leaks, I haven't really heard of them. And... honestly, China might not give any fucks what the rest of the world thinks; what are you going to do, stop making stuff in/buying stuff from China? Your smartphone already costs $500 now....
They do care about what the rest of the world thinks when it comes to stability especially in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong isn't the 15% of GDP that it was when it was returned to China but it is still the main source of foreign investment into China and the port which the oligarchs ship their money overseas. This is because of its stable rule of law structure. There is a reason Shanghai is not the financial hub of China.
Also at this point you might not have as many sanctions on China but you would have a similar pull out of investment from China.
Some of which is already occurring because they have been so aggressive towards their neighbors recently.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29608096
Of course we practice for fights against everybody. Hell I am pretty sure we have an updated and current plan to invade Canada. Just in case.
But I think we take the prep for China more seriously. If only because Xi seems to be really balls out on pissing everybody else in the region off.
But clearly, Beijing is eager to help in that endeavor. They might have been able to play Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines off against each other if they'd been less broad in their claims, but not now.
Also I'm sad that my mad fantasy is over in north korea.
for now
See, China still gets its buffer zone. It just might be glowing a bit more than anticipated if they try to intervene in a Korean conflict. Ironically, an nuclear wasteland would be safer than the DPRK government.
Nuking NK seems like a terrible, terrible idea.
But we absolutely have plans to do it.
We probably have plans to nuke France.
Welcome to every major war plan ever since the invention of nuclear weapons.
You can call SAC Batman for all the damn plans they make.
SAC is crazy.
But it is their job to have plans to use our arsenal on pretty much everyone just in case.
After what they would do to Seoul, nuclear options would look too merciful.
HK's days as a financial hub are numbered.
For those who would like to see the original maneuver
It leaves me torn. It would be like arresting any small time right wing nut job in the US for lying about Obama.
I managed to dig up the original article. Here's my translation of the part that seems to have gotten Kato into trouble:
Sure, he was reporting on rumors. But given that he both explicitly stated that he was repeating rumors and quoted a respected Korean newspaper multiple times as he did so, he didn't defame anybody. This case is complete bullshit, full stop.
But then it's easy to forget how young South Korean democracy is, and that this government has massively restricted the sale of Japanese media in SK. They have strongly conservative and authoritarian elements prominent within the government.
Koreas exchange gunfire
Been a busy border recently.
You ever get the feeling that the nationalism in China and the South China Sea bullshit is to distract the populous from the fact that the government is sitting on about a billion problems and when one of them goes, it'll domino into an utter catastrophe.
India does the same (presumably with Kashmir vs Pakistan) with their rebel groups/internal problems (and there are a bunch)
Nationalism is a great distraction from structural issues.
I mean every country has problems but if if you focus on external stuff your internal peace keeping is much easier.
Pretty common trend through out history.
I think that's the common narrative, yeah. And I agree.