Loved the official politburo-speak regarding the whole thing:
"This organization are criminal henchmen! Luckily, fire accident torched their whole dirty den! "
Interesting article from the BBC. Apperently many Russians do not view their nations current actions in Ukraine as the cause for the sanctions but rather that the West wants to punish Russia for being strong. Many don't blame Putin for the economic downturn, but rather local officials.
understandable when your government spends billions of dollars on state runs news organizations that spew nothing but propaganda while simultaneously shutting down outside news sources.
propaganda can only carry so far when they've hit a massive recession with no end in sight there going to need someone more tangible to blame than the boogeyman that is the western democracies.
Yup, propaganda often does work. What interests me more though is that apparently most of the media consumed by near abroad Russian minorities, for obvious reasons, is made in Russia. I wonder what these people think is happening, given they can likely still easily consume other local news.
I thought another thing is that these jets move very quickly so even what seems to be a large distance is relatively super close
Want to play co-op games? Feel free to hit me up!
0
Options
AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
edited December 2014
Russia's central bank raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent at an emergency 1 a.m. meeting in an attempt to stop the ruble, which is down 50 percent on the year against the dollar, from falling any further.
That is seriously dire. As in Bitcoin dire.
And this is only going to get worse. Russia, you see, is stuck in an economic catch-22. Its economy needs lower interest rates to push up growth, but its companies need higher interest rates to push up the ruble and make all the dollars they borrowed not worth so much ... If they had kept interest rates low, then the ruble would have continued to disintegrate, inflation would have spiked, and big corporations would have defaulted—but at least growth wouldn't have fallen quite so much.
Instead, Russia has opted for the financial shock-and-awe of raising rates from 10.5 to 17 percent in one fell swoop. Rates that high will send Russia's moribund economy into a deep recession—its central banks already estimates its economy will contract 4.5 to 4.7 percent if oil stays at $60-a-barrel—but they might, just might, be enough to stop the ruble's free fall. We'll see. If they're not, Russia will have to resort to capital controls to prop up the value of the ruble, and might even have to ask the IMF for a bailout.
Yeah, that sort of thing would not come without conditions.
Absalon on
+3
Options
silence1186Character shields down!As a wingmanRegistered Userregular
There is a word for this. Schadenfreude.
Now I feel bad, because millions of innocent people are going to suffer because their leader is terrible in most respects.
I really wonder if Putin's popularity is manufactured surely some of it is. I mean during the cold war it looked like most of eastern europe was lock step with the USSR only to find out most of the populace had misgiving towards their supposed workers paradise.
it sucks that russia has to go through this but endemic corruption and populist dictators like Putin can only be solved by the russian people.
Harbringer197 on
+1
Options
AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
Now I feel bad, because millions of innocent people are going to suffer because their leader is terrible in most respects.
Gotta treat them like adults. Sure, the elections were BS and the media is in Putin's pocket since long times, but the same things we know and read are available to most adult Russians. For now. They were all crowing when Crimea got taken over by ethnic nationalists and their responses to Magnitsky being tortured to death were probably as sympathetic as those of rural Mississippi whites hearing about black civil rights activists getting lynched. Or they would just talk about CIA's torture or the invasion of Iraq, but not because they genuinely care about the moral high ground as much about simply drowning out all criticism of the pan-Slavic, anti-individual, illiberal expansionist agenda.
I really wonder if Putin's popularity is manufactured surely some of it is. I mean during the cold war it looked like most of eastern europe was lock step with the USSR only to find out most of the populace had misgiving towards their supposed workers paradise.
it sucks that russia has to go through this but endemic corruption and populist dictators like Putin can only be solved by the russian people.
Was it here or somewhere else that I recently read an article about Siberia agitating for more federalization?
0
Options
TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
I honestly hope it gets bad enough that people revolt in Russia.
You get a big enough revolt and wave of bodies and there's no stopping it. What may come out might very well be -worse- don't get me wrong. Revolutionaries in charge of some of the shit Russia no doubt has hidden away is not a good thing in any aspect.
But this is also not a Middle Eastern country most of the world doesn't know about. So I'd like to think the West would get involved in a very serious attempt at checking any Chinese expansion due to Russian instability as well as because an unstable Russia is not good for anyone.
0
Options
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
I honestly hope it gets bad enough that people revolt in Russia.
You get a big enough revolt and wave of bodies and there's no stopping it. What may come out might very well be -worse- don't get me wrong. Revolutionaries in charge of some of the shit Russia no doubt has hidden away is not a good thing in any aspect.
But this is also not a Middle Eastern country most of the world doesn't know about. So I'd like to think the West would get involved in a very serious attempt at checking any Chinese expansion due to Russian instability as well as because an unstable Russia is not good for anyone.
This is a brilliant recipie for a preemptive strike on NATO.
Did Wesley Clark plan this out?
The best outcome would be Putin getting an IMF bailout if things get bad enough in exchange for calming his tits in Ukraine and Georgia.
The world is better off with a stable Russia, with Putin getting retired to his dacha and with us all moving on with the new leadership.
You get popular revolts in Russia and NATO positioning to "pacify" the area and defending China, and Putin and his cronies will feel their paranoia is justified and they'll be pushed to make a Hail Mary, most likely one that ends in hundreds of new suns floating over the northern hemisphere.
AManFromEarth on
+2
Options
TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
I honestly hope it gets bad enough that people revolt in Russia.
You get a big enough revolt and wave of bodies and there's no stopping it. What may come out might very well be -worse- don't get me wrong. Revolutionaries in charge of some of the shit Russia no doubt has hidden away is not a good thing in any aspect.
But this is also not a Middle Eastern country most of the world doesn't know about. So I'd like to think the West would get involved in a very serious attempt at checking any Chinese expansion due to Russian instability as well as because an unstable Russia is not good for anyone.
This is a brilliant recipie for a preemptive strike on NATO.
Did Wesley Clark plan this out?
The best outcome would be Putin getting an IMF bailout if things get bad enough in exchange for calming his tits in Ukraine and Georgia.
The world is better off with a stable Russia, with Putin getting retired to his dacha and with us all moving on with the new leadership.
You get popular revolts in Russia and NATO positioning to "pacify" the area and defending China, and Putin and his cronies will feel their paranoia is justified and they'll be pushed to make a Hail Mary, most likely one that ends in hundreds of new suns floating over the northern hemisphere.
well I mean
we'd wait until Putin was out obviously. Let the revolt happen and support the new guy as long as he promises not to be dick.
I'm curious if we'll start seeing Putin forced to make some concessions to his opposition within Russia, if the Russian economy keeps tanking. I for one don't want a revolt because I see that being incredibly shitty and I don't think anyone has a real solution to render some idiot's use of the nuclear missiles into a non-threat.
I'm wondering if we'll see certain parts of Russia given more independence from Moscow at this point though. A shit economy is going to create social unrest and let's be honest, Russia was never really that stable with out the constant use of force in certain areas. A shit economy means less money to keep boots on the ground in places that aren't too pleased with their current relationship as part of Russia. I think it'll certainly put a damper on some of the expansionist BS; especially, since Crimea is pretty much a white elephant overall. It'll also kill some of the BS in Ukraine and Moldova, since the assholes will probably get cut off from their funding.
An IMF loan is going to come with strings attached. I just hope they are smart enough to tailor things, so that if Putin, tries to pull a fast one, his balls get crushed and thus, he'll have no interest in trying to scam the IMF. It's also possible, he'll refuse a deal and double down on his bullshit.
I'm curious if we'll start seeing Putin forced to make some concessions to his opposition within Russia, if the Russian economy keeps tanking. I for one don't want a revolt because I see that being incredibly shitty and I don't think anyone has a real solution to render some idiot's use of the nuclear missiles into a non-threat.
Send in spec ops to blow up their code computer, and hope they didn't fuck it up as royally as we did.
This would probably fail anyways, but if it worked it would disable the missiles for a day or two maybe?
I haven't had a regular Russian friend for a bit but at least until a couple of years ago, he was seen as strong even by people who'd left and did not plan to go back. Lots of contrast with what went before.
Freedom for the Northern Isles!
0
Options
TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Well, his old endgame was to brazen it out until things went back to status quo or close to it. I don't really see the guy as someone that throws in the towel when it's not going his way, so I'm guessing keep on going. Can't question yourself, has to be other people that are wrong.
I'm curious if we'll start seeing Putin forced to make some concessions to his opposition within Russia, if the Russian economy keeps tanking. I for one don't want a revolt because I see that being incredibly shitty and I don't think anyone has a real solution to render some idiot's use of the nuclear missiles into a non-threat.
Send in spec ops to blow up their code computer, and hope they didn't fuck it up as royally as we did.
This would probably fail anyways, but if it worked it would disable the missiles for a day or two maybe?
Aside from only being something that would work in a cheap direct-to-TV movie, any attack on Russia's nuclear capabilities would almost guarantee them using those capabilities as soon as they were able.
There's no reason to wish for a revolt when the end result could easily be worse.
+3
Options
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
edited December 2014
Putin's end goal is pretty clear: Frozen conflict in Ukraine that keeps them from joining NATO and the EU, extend influence over Europe via gas and funneling money to far right parties, try to undermine Western hegemony by working with China to stay above water as the world moves away from his oil, stay president as long as he's popular and retire as Vlad the Greater with the love of his people (even if it is mostly manufactured), have cake, eat it too.
Everything he's done in the last decade has been toward these goals.
AManFromEarth on
+3
Options
MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Endgame? Retiring? I don't think Putin has any intention of letting go of power. He'll only abdicate when the Grim Reaper takes him.
I'm pretty sure that Vlad's endgame strategy is to have a golden throne constructed so that even when he is rotting he can still command the loyalty of the imperium Russian people.
0
Options
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Endgame? Retiring? I don't think Putin has any intention of letting go of power. He'll only abdicate when the Grim Reaper takes him.
He said he doesn't want to be president for life. I can see him dipping out if things get bad enough and sticking Medvedev or somebody with the clean up job.
He cares about his image, and even when he's "retired" he's going to still have the power.
I doubt Russia is the target of the oil price drop, but hurting a competitor is always good for business.
I think it could be a target too. Saudi doesn't necessarily like what Russia has been up to in Syria or with Iran. It may not also wish to encourage dissolution of international norms of state sovereignty/border integrity
Freedom for the Northern Isles!
0
Options
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Russia and the US are absolutely the targets of the drop.
The difference is our economy isn't tacked onto the cost of oil being $100 a hour.
+1
Options
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Also there's the fact that if gas is cheap, people won't really push for alternatives.
Posts
"This organization are criminal henchmen! Luckily, fire accident torched their whole dirty den!
Rather want the chance to be 0 than 0.01%
A lie if told long enough and loud enough eventually becomes truth.
The man is definitely a traditionalist when it comes to consolidating power and stoking nationalism.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30436200
propaganda can only carry so far when they've hit a massive recession with no end in sight there going to need someone more tangible to blame than the boogeyman that is the western democracies.
I thought another thing is that these jets move very quickly so even what seems to be a large distance is relatively super close
Want to play co-op games? Feel free to hit me up!
Yeah, that sort of thing would not come without conditions.
Now I feel bad, because millions of innocent people are going to suffer because their leader is terrible in most respects.
it sucks that russia has to go through this but endemic corruption and populist dictators like Putin can only be solved by the russian people.
Gotta treat them like adults. Sure, the elections were BS and the media is in Putin's pocket since long times, but the same things we know and read are available to most adult Russians. For now. They were all crowing when Crimea got taken over by ethnic nationalists and their responses to Magnitsky being tortured to death were probably as sympathetic as those of rural Mississippi whites hearing about black civil rights activists getting lynched. Or they would just talk about CIA's torture or the invasion of Iraq, but not because they genuinely care about the moral high ground as much about simply drowning out all criticism of the pan-Slavic, anti-individual, illiberal expansionist agenda.
Was it here or somewhere else that I recently read an article about Siberia agitating for more federalization?
You get a big enough revolt and wave of bodies and there's no stopping it. What may come out might very well be -worse- don't get me wrong. Revolutionaries in charge of some of the shit Russia no doubt has hidden away is not a good thing in any aspect.
But this is also not a Middle Eastern country most of the world doesn't know about. So I'd like to think the West would get involved in a very serious attempt at checking any Chinese expansion due to Russian instability as well as because an unstable Russia is not good for anyone.
This is a brilliant recipie for a preemptive strike on NATO.
Did Wesley Clark plan this out?
The best outcome would be Putin getting an IMF bailout if things get bad enough in exchange for calming his tits in Ukraine and Georgia.
The world is better off with a stable Russia, with Putin getting retired to his dacha and with us all moving on with the new leadership.
You get popular revolts in Russia and NATO positioning to "pacify" the area and defending China, and Putin and his cronies will feel their paranoia is justified and they'll be pushed to make a Hail Mary, most likely one that ends in hundreds of new suns floating over the northern hemisphere.
well I mean
we'd wait until Putin was out obviously. Let the revolt happen and support the new guy as long as he promises not to be dick.
Not that -that's- ever worked out in our favor.
god dammit Russia why you so big
I'm wondering if we'll see certain parts of Russia given more independence from Moscow at this point though. A shit economy is going to create social unrest and let's be honest, Russia was never really that stable with out the constant use of force in certain areas. A shit economy means less money to keep boots on the ground in places that aren't too pleased with their current relationship as part of Russia. I think it'll certainly put a damper on some of the expansionist BS; especially, since Crimea is pretty much a white elephant overall. It'll also kill some of the BS in Ukraine and Moldova, since the assholes will probably get cut off from their funding.
An IMF loan is going to come with strings attached. I just hope they are smart enough to tailor things, so that if Putin, tries to pull a fast one, his balls get crushed and thus, he'll have no interest in trying to scam the IMF. It's also possible, he'll refuse a deal and double down on his bullshit.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Send in spec ops to blow up their code computer, and hope they didn't fuck it up as royally as we did.
This would probably fail anyways, but if it worked it would disable the missiles for a day or two maybe?
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
though we would probably funnel aid to whatever political organization seems the friendliest.
It went poorly then, and now they have nukes.
Aside from only being something that would work in a cheap direct-to-TV movie, any attack on Russia's nuclear capabilities would almost guarantee them using those capabilities as soon as they were able.
There's no reason to wish for a revolt when the end result could easily be worse.
Everything he's done in the last decade has been toward these goals.
He said he doesn't want to be president for life. I can see him dipping out if things get bad enough and sticking Medvedev or somebody with the clean up job.
He cares about his image, and even when he's "retired" he's going to still have the power.
Russian rouble in free-fall despite shock 17% rate rise
So that 6.5% base rate increase. Manged to push the Ruble down from 65.95 per dollar down to ~61/62 during the following day.
It since spiked to over 77, and traded in the mid-low seventies for a bit, and is now hovering around 69.
Charts:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1D
Also from xe, for comparison purposes. Central Bank Rates
CENTRAL BANK RATES
JPY 0.1%
CHF 0%
EUR 0.05%
USD 0.25%
CAD 1%
AUD 2.5%
NZD 3.5%
GBP 0.5%
So is this an intended or unintended consequence?
The Saudis want everyone to buy Saudi oil.
They don't like that us and the Russians produce our own.
I think it could be a target too. Saudi doesn't necessarily like what Russia has been up to in Syria or with Iran. It may not also wish to encourage dissolution of international norms of state sovereignty/border integrity
The difference is our economy isn't tacked onto the cost of oil being $100 a hour.
So it's layered, like a shitty onion