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AmPol: Primary Concerns
moniker
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[link]ABC News wrote:Hillary Clinton has climbed into first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans expected to participate in the state's Democratic presidential caucuses, with John Edwards and Barack Obama both in striking distance. The Iowa Poll shows 29 percent of likely caucusgoers preferring Clinton, a New York senator, an improvement from the Register's most recent poll in May. Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was the choice of 23 percent in the new poll, slipping from the top spot since the May survey to nearly even with Obama. Obama, an Illinois senator, was at 22 percent , virtually unchanged from May.
So it would seem that the inevitability factor is increasing even further for Hillary. Afterall, national polls are less important before the first few primaries leading into Super Tuesday as the media coverage and shakeup if Edwards or Obama wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire would likely change national perceptions. Things are going to get interesting since this is when everything actually matters. Or, at least, it matters a good deal more than what it meant when this campaign season started. 4 years ago...
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Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
I
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
And you never know the effect that departing candidates will have, and how their votes break.
non-idiotic thinking.
Well, Hillary has solidified her position with the Democrats, but I get the feeling that is a mix of her being better than people thought and Obama and Edwards being less great than expected.
On the Republican side it is pretty messy. Guiliani is ostensibly the candidate consensus is growing around, but Romney looks like he will win IA, NH and MI (which moved its primary up) and Fred Thompson looks set to take SC.
Even if Guiliani survives not winning any of the early states, there is still the threat of a third party evangelical challenge if he is nominated. It's a shaky place to be in for him.
I feel like this is more a criticism that is valid for the Bush's than the Clintons. I mean, one of these groups is an old money New England political dynasty of aristocrats and the other is a bright couple who got were they are mainly on merit.
Right, but I can see a world where someone puts Jeb up for election. Chelsea, not so much, but I don't think Jeb running is that far out of the question.
He can run, but do you honestly think he'd have a shot? Not only would he have to deal with his own record, which isn't so shit hot, but he'd have his brother's baggage on top of it.
How Bush's presidency looks in, say, 2012 or 2016 is going to depend on what happens in the intervening years.
Like, say, pulling out of Iraq sparks a regional war, gas jumps to four and a half bucks per gallon, there is a terrorist attack, the economy goes into recession and we end up right back in the middle east.
That isn't a particularly unlikely scenario and it would take some of the edge off of Bush in retrospect. People would say in retrospect that his tax cuts had kept the economy strong, he prevented any other terrorist attacks after 9/11 and maybe not pulling out of Iraq was the right thing.
Jeb is pretty good with non-traditional GOP voters too, so if the party is looking for someone to lead it back into the majority after a few years of hatin' the brown people takin' their jerbs . . .
Can anyone clarify this last bit for me? I just sort of assumed Hillary was Bill version 2.0 on domestic policy, but this worries me. I don't care if Hillary takes back Bush's tax cuts, I'm actually in favor of that. But if she plans to roll back NAFTA or something I may have to start looking at a new candidate.
It's hard to tell because she is in the midst of the primaries.
From direct quotes all I gather is that she wants to drive harder deals with other countries to make sure that in addition to them getting access to our domestic market, we also get access to theirs instead of allowing them some kind of protectionist blanket.
Neo-liberal media like The Economist tend hyperventilate over this kind of thing when there isn't anything to really be concerned about.
That's too good to be real....right? Right!
I can only hope Guiliana gets the nomination, and we can look back and see that as the point that all this Christian bullshit just fucking left politics. If those crazy bastards back a third party candidate, I could easily fathom them being just another negligible minority from now on.
God, I hope that happens.
He's the one I most want not to win the presidency, but he's the one I most want to win the Republican nomination.
He's also the only Republican I fear re: chances of winning the general election.
That's my read of it, anyways.
I don't fear Rudy mainly because his national image is mainly due to a bucket of "9/11" brand whitewash. The intense spotlight of the campaign will burn through that, and a lot of people will find out why he's not well liked in NY.
Loren, you don't think people are going to be more than happy to remind people that this is a man who is a racist, had a police comissioner who defined corrupt, and should not be allowed anywhere NEAR the levers of power?
Heh. Estranged is...well, I don't think there's a word stronger than "gross understatement", is there?
That about sums it up for me.
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Absolutely. We've seen how elegantly and masterfully the Democrats can sling mud, particularly when entirely warranted.
The one thing with Rudy as the GOP candidate is that the GOP starts with writing off the black vote and quite possibly the minority vote.
http://www.amazon.com/Democrats-Had-Brains-Theyd-Republicans/dp/0307353451
Do you guys think Barnes and Noble would laugh off a little arson as healthy political expression?
They've been writing off the black vote for decades.
Which minority vote?
Which is unique to Rudy...how?
Take your pick.
Well, it's more that the few halting attempts by the GOP to reach out to blacks would pretty much be erased.