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AmPol: Primary Concerns

monikermoniker Registered User regular
edited December 2007 in Debate and/or Discourse
ABC News wrote:
Hillary Clinton has climbed into first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans expected to participate in the state's Democratic presidential caucuses, with John Edwards and Barack Obama both in striking distance. The Iowa Poll shows 29 percent of likely caucusgoers preferring Clinton, a New York senator, an improvement from the Register's most recent poll in May. Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was the choice of 23 percent in the new poll, slipping from the top spot since the May survey to nearly even with Obama. Obama, an Illinois senator, was at 22 percent , virtually unchanged from May.
[link]

So it would seem that the inevitability factor is increasing even further for Hillary. Afterall, national polls are less important before the first few primaries leading into Super Tuesday as the media coverage and shakeup if Edwards or Obama wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire would likely change national perceptions. Things are going to get interesting since this is when everything actually matters. Or, at least, it matters a good deal more than what it meant when this campaign season started. 4 years ago...

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    Eat it You Nasty Pig.Eat it You Nasty Pig. tell homeland security 'we are the bomb'Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Too much time to talk about inevitability. Where were Kerry and Dean at this point in 2004?

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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Still building their political machinery and foundations to win votes. Clinton was done with that, outside of Iowa anyhow, a decade ago. Plus I don't think she's going to shriek anytime soon. It's her race to lose and she's making sure to present herself in a way that doesn't lose. She may not necessarily win any debates, but so long as there aren't any upsets with the lower tier and the status quo remains then she wins the nomination. Likely the general too, given the fray that the GOP is going through.


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    ShintoShinto __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    Clinton firming up her lead on the left seems to have put her in better position against likely republican challengers. She has five and a half points on Guiliani, almost eleven on Thompson, four and a half on McCain and almost twelve on Romney.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

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    ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Yeah, Shinto, I could see where not frontloading the primaries would probably make a huge difference this election, with the candidates practically coronated already.

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    GoslingGosling Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, Probably Watertown, WIRegistered User regular
    edited October 2007
    One candidate. The Republican one is still up for grabs- the media says Rudy, but my analysis says Romney, with Thompson in the thick of it.

    And you never know the effect that departing candidates will have, and how their votes break.

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    KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Hillary may well make a good president, but goddam, isn't anyone else sick of the same old families at the top? This is taking brand loyalty that little too far!

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    GoslingGosling Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, Probably Watertown, WIRegistered User regular
    edited October 2007
    At least this will be the last one. Nobody's going to put Jeb or Chelsea in anytime soon.

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    deowolfdeowolf is allowed to do that. Traffic.Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Wishful thinking.

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    PicardathonPicardathon Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    deowolf wrote: »
    Wishful thinking.

    non-idiotic thinking.

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    stiliststilist Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    moniker wrote: »
    Since when does the general public vote for candidates based on merit?

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    ShintoShinto __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    Thinatos wrote: »
    Yeah, Shinto, I could see where not frontloading the primaries would probably make a huge difference this election, with the candidates practically coronated already.

    Well, Hillary has solidified her position with the Democrats, but I get the feeling that is a mix of her being better than people thought and Obama and Edwards being less great than expected.

    On the Republican side it is pretty messy. Guiliani is ostensibly the candidate consensus is growing around, but Romney looks like he will win IA, NH and MI (which moved its primary up) and Fred Thompson looks set to take SC.

    Even if Guiliani survives not winning any of the early states, there is still the threat of a third party evangelical challenge if he is nominated. It's a shaky place to be in for him.

    Shinto on
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    ShintoShinto __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Hillary may well make a good president, but goddam, isn't anyone else sick of the same old families at the top? This is taking brand loyalty that little too far!

    I feel like this is more a criticism that is valid for the Bush's than the Clintons. I mean, one of these groups is an old money New England political dynasty of aristocrats and the other is a bright couple who got were they are mainly on merit.

    Shinto on
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    deowolfdeowolf is allowed to do that. Traffic.Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    deowolf wrote: »
    Wishful thinking.

    non-idiotic thinking.

    Right, but I can see a world where someone puts Jeb up for election. Chelsea, not so much, but I don't think Jeb running is that far out of the question.

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    ShintoShinto __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    I don't think it is that far out of the question either. He's only 54.

    Shinto on
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Shinto wrote: »
    I don't think it is that far out of the question either. He's only 54.

    He can run, but do you honestly think he'd have a shot? Not only would he have to deal with his own record, which isn't so shit hot, but he'd have his brother's baggage on top of it.

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    ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited October 2007
    We'll need at least two election cycles to get the stink of Bush out of the public's eye, and I'm betting even then that the Bush brand will be poison. By the time a Bush in office is a tenable proposition, Jeb may no longer be in the spotlight.

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    ShintoShinto __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    Shinto wrote: »
    I don't think it is that far out of the question either. He's only 54.

    He can run, but do you honestly think he'd have a shot? Not only would he have to deal with his own record, which isn't so shit hot, but he'd have his brother's baggage on top of it.

    How Bush's presidency looks in, say, 2012 or 2016 is going to depend on what happens in the intervening years.

    Like, say, pulling out of Iraq sparks a regional war, gas jumps to four and a half bucks per gallon, there is a terrorist attack, the economy goes into recession and we end up right back in the middle east.

    That isn't a particularly unlikely scenario and it would take some of the edge off of Bush in retrospect. People would say in retrospect that his tax cuts had kept the economy strong, he prevented any other terrorist attacks after 9/11 and maybe not pulling out of Iraq was the right thing.

    Jeb is pretty good with non-traditional GOP voters too, so if the party is looking for someone to lead it back into the majority after a few years of hatin' the brown people takin' their jerbs . . .

    Shinto on
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    Rufus_ShinraRufus_Shinra Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    She has yet to spell out much of her policy platform, including on such vital issues as tax or climate change; and has suspiciously meddlesome tendencies. She has already retreated alarmingly from her husband's commitment to free trade.

    Can anyone clarify this last bit for me? I just sort of assumed Hillary was Bill version 2.0 on domestic policy, but this worries me. I don't care if Hillary takes back Bush's tax cuts, I'm actually in favor of that. But if she plans to roll back NAFTA or something I may have to start looking at a new candidate.

    Rufus_Shinra on
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    ShintoShinto __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    She has yet to spell out much of her policy platform, including on such vital issues as tax or climate change; and has suspiciously meddlesome tendencies. She has already retreated alarmingly from her husband's commitment to free trade.

    Can anyone clarify this last bit for me? I just sort of assumed Hillary was Bill version 2.0 on domestic policy, but this worries me. I don't care if Hillary takes back Bush's tax cuts, I'm actually in favor of that. But if she plans to roll back NAFTA or something I may have to start looking at a new candidate.

    It's hard to tell because she is in the midst of the primaries.

    From direct quotes all I gather is that she wants to drive harder deals with other countries to make sure that in addition to them getting access to our domestic market, we also get access to theirs instead of allowing them some kind of protectionist blanket.

    Neo-liberal media like The Economist tend hyperventilate over this kind of thing when there isn't anything to really be concerned about.

    Shinto on
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
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    stiliststilist Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    At first I was wondering what kind of person would put mustard on a potato, but then I read the directions for the hotdog and it all made sense.

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    tachyontachyon Registered User regular
    edited October 2007

    That's too good to be real....right? Right!

    D:

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    Wonder_HippieWonder_Hippie __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    Shinto wrote: »
    Thinatos wrote: »
    Yeah, Shinto, I could see where not frontloading the primaries would probably make a huge difference this election, with the candidates practically coronated already.

    Well, Hillary has solidified her position with the Democrats, but I get the feeling that is a mix of her being better than people thought and Obama and Edwards being less great than expected.

    On the Republican side it is pretty messy. Guiliani is ostensibly the candidate consensus is growing around, but Romney looks like he will win IA, NH and MI (which moved its primary up) and Fred Thompson looks set to take SC.

    Even if Guiliani survives not winning any of the early states, there is still the threat of a third party evangelical challenge if he is nominated. It's a shaky place to be in for him.

    I can only hope Guiliana gets the nomination, and we can look back and see that as the point that all this Christian bullshit just fucking left politics. If those crazy bastards back a third party candidate, I could easily fathom them being just another negligible minority from now on.

    God, I hope that happens.

    Wonder_Hippie on
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    Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Giuliani would be a mixed blessing.

    He's the one I most want not to win the presidency, but he's the one I most want to win the Republican nomination.

    He's also the only Republican I fear re: chances of winning the general election.

    Loren Michael on
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    Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Although I swear to god if Hillary/Obama/Whoever tries to out-religion Rudy, I will be pissed.

    Loren Michael on
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    Wonder_HippieWonder_Hippie __BANNED USERS regular
    edited October 2007
    You fear him winning? It seems to me that all the time he's spent fellating Bush over the past year will really bit him in the ass when it comes to the general election. That's at least partially why Ron Paul has such (read: terrifying) supporters: they're just fucking sick of Bush.

    That's my read of it, anyways.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    You fear him winning? It seems to me that all the time he's spent fellating Bush over the past year will really bit him in the ass when it comes to the general election. That's at least partially why Ron Paul has such (read: terrifying) supporters: they're just fucking sick of Bush.

    That's my read of it, anyways.

    I don't fear Rudy mainly because his national image is mainly due to a bucket of "9/11" brand whitewash. The intense spotlight of the campaign will burn through that, and a lot of people will find out why he's not well liked in NY.

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    Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    There's a ton of people who are just fucking ignorant of all that. A huge chunk of the electorate just doesn't give a shit about the primary and what is said in it. If Hillary the polarizer gets the Dem nomination and Rudy manages to pass himself off as a quirky, moderate Republican and a lovable dude--the cross-dressing thing, I think, can only help him in the primary, as it shows that he's not an old stick-in-the-mud--I am concerned at what could happen.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    There's a ton of people who are just fucking ignorant of all that. A huge chunk of the electorate just doesn't give a shit about the primary and what is said in it. If Hillary the polarizer gets the Dem nomination and Rudy manages to pass himself off as a quirky, moderate Republican and a lovable dude--the cross-dressing thing, I think, can only help him in the primary, as it shows that he's not an old stick-in-the-mud--I am concerned at what could happen.

    Loren, you don't think people are going to be more than happy to remind people that this is a man who is a racist, had a police comissioner who defined corrupt, and should not be allowed anywhere NEAR the levers of power?

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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    I dunno. I mean, he put the command and control center for New York in the heart of a previously bombed and declared terrorist target needlessly risking lives when 9-11 actually happened, and the whole 'freedom means do what I tell you to do' won't grant him any favours that Mrs. Marilyn Monroe will. Not to mention the estranged wives and kids.

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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    moniker wrote: »
    I dunno. I mean, he put the command and control center for New York in the heart of a previously bombed and declared terrorist target needlessly risking lives when 9-11 actually happened, and the whole 'freedom means do what I tell you to do' won't grant him any favours that Mrs. Marilyn Monroe will. Not to mention the estranged wives and kids.

    Heh. Estranged is...well, I don't think there's a word stronger than "gross understatement", is there?

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    HeartlashHeartlash Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    http://www.cafepress.com/donkeytusks.141091425

    That about sums it up for me.

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    Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    There's a ton of people who are just fucking ignorant of all that. A huge chunk of the electorate just doesn't give a shit about the primary and what is said in it. If Hillary the polarizer gets the Dem nomination and Rudy manages to pass himself off as a quirky, moderate Republican and a lovable dude--the cross-dressing thing, I think, can only help him in the primary, as it shows that he's not an old stick-in-the-mud--I am concerned at what could happen.

    Loren, you don't think people are going to be more than happy to remind people that this is a man who is a racist, had a police comissioner who defined corrupt, and should not be allowed anywhere NEAR the levers of power?

    Absolutely. We've seen how elegantly and masterfully the Democrats can sling mud, particularly when entirely warranted.

    Loren Michael on
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    There's a ton of people who are just fucking ignorant of all that. A huge chunk of the electorate just doesn't give a shit about the primary and what is said in it. If Hillary the polarizer gets the Dem nomination and Rudy manages to pass himself off as a quirky, moderate Republican and a lovable dude--the cross-dressing thing, I think, can only help him in the primary, as it shows that he's not an old stick-in-the-mud--I am concerned at what could happen.

    Loren, you don't think people are going to be more than happy to remind people that this is a man who is a racist, had a police comissioner who defined corrupt, and should not be allowed anywhere NEAR the levers of power?

    Absolutely. We've seen how elegantly and masterfully the Democrats can sling mud, particularly when entirely warranted.

    The one thing with Rudy as the GOP candidate is that the GOP starts with writing off the black vote and quite possibly the minority vote.

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    HounHoun Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Not to tangent too far off, I ran into this little gem at the bookstore today:

    http://www.amazon.com/Democrats-Had-Brains-Theyd-Republicans/dp/0307353451

    Do you guys think Barnes and Noble would laugh off a little arson as healthy political expression?

    Houn on
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    Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    The one thing with Rudy as the GOP candidate is that the GOP starts with writing off the black vote and quite possibly the minority vote.

    They've been writing off the black vote for decades.

    Which minority vote?

    Loren Michael on
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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    There's a ton of people who are just fucking ignorant of all that. A huge chunk of the electorate just doesn't give a shit about the primary and what is said in it. If Hillary the polarizer gets the Dem nomination and Rudy manages to pass himself off as a quirky, moderate Republican and a lovable dude--the cross-dressing thing, I think, can only help him in the primary, as it shows that he's not an old stick-in-the-mud--I am concerned at what could happen.

    Loren, you don't think people are going to be more than happy to remind people that this is a man who is a racist, had a police comissioner who defined corrupt, and should not be allowed anywhere NEAR the levers of power?

    Absolutely. We've seen how elegantly and masterfully the Democrats can sling mud, particularly when entirely warranted.

    The one thing with Rudy as the GOP candidate is that the GOP starts with writing off the black vote and quite possibly the minority vote.

    Which is unique to Rudy...how?

    moniker on
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    The one thing with Rudy as the GOP candidate is that the GOP starts with writing off the black vote and quite possibly the minority vote.

    They've been writing off the black vote for decades.

    Which minority vote?

    Take your pick.

    AngelHedgie on
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    moniker wrote: »
    There's a ton of people who are just fucking ignorant of all that. A huge chunk of the electorate just doesn't give a shit about the primary and what is said in it. If Hillary the polarizer gets the Dem nomination and Rudy manages to pass himself off as a quirky, moderate Republican and a lovable dude--the cross-dressing thing, I think, can only help him in the primary, as it shows that he's not an old stick-in-the-mud--I am concerned at what could happen.

    Loren, you don't think people are going to be more than happy to remind people that this is a man who is a racist, had a police comissioner who defined corrupt, and should not be allowed anywhere NEAR the levers of power?

    Absolutely. We've seen how elegantly and masterfully the Democrats can sling mud, particularly when entirely warranted.

    The one thing with Rudy as the GOP candidate is that the GOP starts with writing off the black vote and quite possibly the minority vote.

    Which is unique to Rudy...how?

    Well, it's more that the few halting attempts by the GOP to reach out to blacks would pretty much be erased.

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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited October 2007
    Katrina did that just fine. The immigration debate turned off most everybody else. Especially hispanics.

    moniker on
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