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Best Korea: Kim Jong Un's Wild Ride
AManFromEarth
Let's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
Let's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
More than just the setting for one of the longest running sitcoms in history, the Korean peninsula is located on the eastern edge of Asia, close to Japan and shares a border with China. For the last half century and a bit, the Korean people have been split between the Stalinist paradise of North Korea and the America backed, democratic South. A product of the Cold War, the Korean issue is a longstanding experiment in terror, detente, and just how poor a country can make itself before imploding.
An armistice has been in effect between North Korea, South Korea, and the United States since the end of the Korean war in 1953.
As you probably know, Dear Leader Kim Jong Il, pictured here:
Died a while back and his son, Kim Jong Un, has taken over the reins of power. Sort of.
Occasionally, usually to bolster their stance at the negotiating table, North Korea will take a couple shots at American and South Korean shipping, or test detonate a nuclear bomb. Lately, they've been rattling their sabers a bit louder than usual, and now Russia is warning they may spiral out of control.
No one is really sure what's going on inside the glorious people's republic, but if there is trouble in the worker's paradise (like, say, a really ineffectual figurehead jostling for power with military leaders and trying to solidify his stance as a god among men) things could get very bad for the Korean peninsula very fast. Over 28,000 American service members are stationed in South Korea, and millions of people live within the range of the North's artillery and chemical weapons reach. Luckily, their piss poor excuses for nuclear bombs probably can't be shot at Seoul or Japan. Yet.
It's an interesting time over there, and let's clear up the Obummer thread by bringing talk of the Korea question in here!
AManFromEarth on
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Well, does Dennis Rodman count?
He did apparently reveal Un's previously unknown daughter or something.
Imagine if twenty years from now we find out he was actually in NK as an agent of the American government. Wouldn't that just be hilarious?
China would protect its border and we would bomb the fuck out of North Korea.
Probably not to the same degree as china or the US, but I can't imagine they'd just twiddle their thumbs.
Un has a western education there is no possible way he can think he'd win a war outside lunacy.
The recovery is going to be the worst part from any war in Korea. Seoul will be leveled almost immediately by NK artillery and chemical weapons and the North Koreans will fight for as long as humanely possible since they believe their dear leader is a literal godking.
Source:
They wouldn't nuke Seoul, unless someone got pants on head crazy as a last ditch thing. The North wants to invade, and trade concessions for releasing civilians of occupied territory. Glassing Seoul guarantees that there will be no negotiations and that it ends with every single military leader dead or arrested.
How is the US likely to respond if China demands to be in on rebuilding, but refuses aid prior?
We should absolutely let them. Any actual fighting is going to mean a massive rebuilding project in South Korea as well. If China wants to go spend money nation building North Korea, let them. It quite literally cannot be any worse than it is right now.
Well what I'm getting at is, there's going to be people in the US thinking it's bogus that China can have a say in the aftermath without putting any effort into things.
Yes, but those people are idiots, so fuck 'em
Meh. It happens all the time. The amount of money and manpower it will take to rebuild Korea after a war is horrific. Also, China isn't going to let us just set up a larger South Korea on their doorstep. So unless we want to start WW3, we're going to let them help.
Look at it this way: Building up North Korea is going to make our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan look like loaning your friend a $20 bill. If China wants to take point, let them. It will be an enormous drain on their economy, and if they aren't footing the bill for it, we will be.
I can accept this.
The real problem right now is that Un is probably a lot dumber than his dad, there's doubtless dudes in the military who'd be happy to take his job, and he's trying to pull a classic "ratchet up foreign tensions to quell dissent at home" number. Problem is we don't know much about the generals or about Un, and if he thinks he's in danger of his life he may just push things too far to save himself, at which point it all turns into a chain reaction. Still, North Korea has to know how boned they'd be if they get into a shooting war. They could kill a lot of civilians in the first round of attacks, but after that they'd all be flattened by air power.
There's also the fact that I doubt China will be completely passive if NK actually starts bombing areas. They want that buffer zone of a country and have the most sway in the region of NK. So if NK does anything stupid, I would not be surprised if China was heavily involved with dealing with the situation.
It boils down to the gap between 'He can't possibly be crazy enough to try to make good on his threats' and 'Well, he really might be that crazy.' Even though most everyone is 99% sure that Dear Leader just wants attention*, no one is willing to gamble millions of civilian lives on that.
* If you think about it, more people in America and probably worldwide probably recognize Kim Jong Un's name than recognize the names Xi Jinping, David Cameron or François Hollande.
"Pretty fast" is almost a conservative estimate. They don't have the logistical resources necessary to mobilize for a war that lasts longer than a day or two. And that's assuming we don't shoot back at them.
First factor is where is our Navy in relation to NK? Positioning is vital, and if we're already in range to fire on their capital, that's big. Second is the capital itself. Everything we know about the country is that the dictatorship is all about pooling the resources there in one place, for the most part. That means that's where their defenses are going to be, especially for all those fancy goose steppin' parades they have. Even if he has bunkers, Son of Dear Leader is going to want security surrounding him, so who knows if they'll actually be deployed in a way that they have to be found or can be taken out in a barrage of fire.
North Korea doesn't have the resources to fight a war on their own (with no American or South Koreans shooting back) for more than a few days, at most.
They will strike, pour over the border, and then throw their hands up to try to keep some of the land they took. Hence their use of non-persistent chemical weapons along the border and just straight smashing Seoul in the first 24 hours.
The cleanest way, which is very unlikely, is for NK to attempt a missile launch that gets intercepted. It will be enough provocation to march in. And by march in, I mean level their capital after Seoul is evacuated in case there's a brief retaliation, and then our guys on the ground sift through the rubble.
If, and only if, US clear this 100% with China and Russia first. Otherwise it could be the ramp up to cold war 2.
We'd want to focus on taking out their artillery positions, Pyongyang will not be important yet. As long as that artillery is in service the South Koreans will be in danger, as will our forces along the DMZ. Pyongyang will take care of itself in the fullness of time. Which would be about a week, probably.
With who? China?
This is a pretty good documentary you can stream on Netflix to give you a brief bit of flavor about how things are going on in there.
Unlikely. The Russians and China can piss about in the UNSC, but nobody will really give a shit. But, when it comes to it, the US will have the support of basically the entire international community. The Russians and Chinese will make noise about American whatever and then turn around and thank fuck for us taking care of the crazies.
They'll just push to get in on redevelopment of the peninsula.