European leaders have debated how to punish Russian for its actions in Crimea. But for many Germans, the key is not to ruffle Russian feathers.
...
Politicians - like the former chancellor Helmut Schmidt, now in his mid-90s and still, by the way, smoking furiously even in television studios - are unequivocal in their commitment to democracy.
But Mr Schmidt is also of the "go easy on Russia" school. Sanctions, he said, were "nonsense".
Germany has to do business with Russia, is the common sentiment, so let's remember that.
The same sentiment comes from another former Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, though in his case he really does do business with Russia as the chairman of the board of Nordstream, owned by Gazprom, the Russian energy company currently in dispute with Ukraine.
Apart from Chancellor Merkel's predecessors, a string of very powerful German businessmen are lining up to say how important Russia is, from the boss of Siemens, often pictured with President Putin, to the chief executives of Adidas and of the steel giant Thyssen Krupp.
Meanwhile, Russia's annexing its neighbours under the pretense of protecting ethnic civilians, raging against Western interference, and chomping at the bit about fascists. It's like WWII has flipped over on its head.
How much of pre-WWII history is taught in Germany nowadays?
China doesn't want to have ethnic division a tolerable thing even more so though.
China opts for the economic rather than military sword. Mostly because of the US carrier groups gently floating in the summer seas.
Yeah, but China has been building up their navy and missile capabilities, so I wonder if that will change.
Actually, Taiwan seems to moving towardes unification on their own. China will probably side with Ukraine, just to help establish that using force to put down ethnic uprisings is a-okay
I mean.
Are we not behind putting down violent, ethnic uprisings sponsored by foreign governments to undermine your government? There are some layers here, and you can't really paint in broad strokes on something like that, but I tend to think that Ukraine has a right, and a duty, to defend itself and stop the guys with guns who keep seizing towns and shooting cops.
I was deliberately painting in broad strokes. While what is happening in Ukraine and Tibet are different, I doubt China wants "suppression of ethnic minorities" to be added to the list of things that demand intervention.
Does that make sense? Or am I reading to much into this since China has nukes and can tell the world to mind their own business?
0
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
China doesn't want to have ethnic division a tolerable thing even more so though.
China opts for the economic rather than military sword. Mostly because of the US carrier groups gently floating in the summer seas.
Yeah, but China has been building up their navy and missile capabilities, so I wonder if that will change.
Actually, Taiwan seems to moving towardes unification on their own. China will probably side with Ukraine, just to help establish that using force to put down ethnic uprisings is a-okay
I mean.
Are we not behind putting down violent, ethnic uprisings sponsored by foreign governments to undermine your government? There are some layers here, and you can't really paint in broad strokes on something like that, but I tend to think that Ukraine has a right, and a duty, to defend itself and stop the guys with guns who keep seizing towns and shooting cops.
I was deliberately painting in broad strokes. While what is happening in Ukraine and Tibet are different, I doubt China wants "suppression of ethnic minorities" to be added to the list of things that demand intervention.
Does that make sense? Or am I reading to much into this since China has nukes and can tell the world to mind their own business?
Ah, that makes sense.
And probably accurate. But also, yeah, China's in the club. They get to wag their dick a little.
So, thanks, Putin, for making sure we won't do any more disarmament for the next twenty fucking years.
The US decides not to dress up its words too much in the UN special meeting, and places the blame rather bluntly on the Russian Federation.
I suppose it doesn't help super special snowflake Russia feel nice about itself, but I'd wager that for the rest of us it's always nice to see adult human beings observing a load of horseshit, and properly acknowledging it as such.
Zephiran on
Alright and in this next scene all the animals have AIDS.
Russia might as well just take Ukraine already if they don't care about sanctions. But they do to some point so they don't.
Uh, spoiler alert: that's what they're going to do. They'll leave out the parts of Ukraine that they don't feel like dealing with. My current bet is that they'll take everything east of the Volga. (I would not be hugely surprised, though, if they took the whole country.)
+1
TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Russia might as well just take Ukraine already if they don't care about sanctions. But they do to some point so they don't.
Uh, spoiler alert: that's what they're going to do. They'll leave out the parts of Ukraine that they don't feel like dealing with. My current bet is that they'll take everything east of the Volga. (I would not be hugely surprised, though, if they took the whole country.)
You mean the Dniester? Volga is solidly in Rooskietown.
Russia might as well just take Ukraine already if they don't care about sanctions. But they do to some point so they don't.
Uh, spoiler alert: that's what they're going to do. They'll leave out the parts of Ukraine that they don't feel like dealing with. My current bet is that they'll take everything east of the Volga. (I would not be hugely surprised, though, if they took the whole country.)
You mean the Dniester? Volga is solidly in Rooskietown.
While only tangentially related, all the stuff out of Russia has me wondering an important question - what happens when Putin dies? I don't expect it in the near term (though it's entirely possible he gets unlucky and has a heart attack or something), but I can't help but worry what will happen then.
While I see this constant flag of 'Europe needs Russian gas' being raised, I think it's equally fair to say though: "Russia needs European customers."
Yes, a gas shortage would be damaging to Europe. But if Russia suddenly isn't able to sell as much of its gas, there are going to be a lot of pissed off Oligarchs in Russia. Nearly all of Russia's exports are chewed up by Europe. Find a way to wean off of them, and that will do plenty of damage.
While I see this constant flag of 'Europe needs Russian gas' being raised, I think it's equally fair to say though: "Russia needs European customers."
Yes, a gas shortage would be damaging to Europe. But if Russia suddenly isn't able to sell as much of its gas, there are going to be a lot of pissed off Oligarchs in Russia. Nearly all of Russia's exports are chewed up by Europe. Find a way to wean off of them, and that will do plenty of damage.
Behold, the power of money: sanction Russia, subsidize Europe, wait.
While I see this constant flag of 'Europe needs Russian gas' being raised, I think it's equally fair to say though: "Russia needs European customers."
Yes, a gas shortage would be damaging to Europe. But if Russia suddenly isn't able to sell as much of its gas, there are going to be a lot of pissed off Oligarchs in Russia. Nearly all of Russia's exports are chewed up by Europe. Find a way to wean off of them, and that will do plenty of damage.
The problem is that the economic pain that Europe will feel is much more spread out than it is in Russia.
Yes the oligarchs need profits but how much do you wana bet their lifestyles will be impacted by sanctions? Where as a natural gas hike will sharply impact all consumers in Europe.
0
HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
The oligarchs have reserves to last a while and adjust. Europe's consumer base doesn't have that luxury.
0
wiltingI had fun once and it was awfulRegistered Userregular
edited April 2014
Never mind the Oligarchs. The Russian state would be broke without gas exports. Its a good thing the political will for an embargo is unlikely to be mustered, although it would be a terrible shame if some kind of accident were to befall the pipelines (the Ukrainian lines excepted of course).
I really hope that nobody is surprised that a major oil export country is doing something wacky. Oil has been causing creepy behavior in the UK and Canada for crying out loud, and the Middle East is kind of famous for what its ruling classes do with oil wealth.
I know that the oil money is just too sweet for people to get the lesson, but it really underlines and highlights and dogears the fact that putting millions of lives and livelyhoods in the hands of known bad actors is a bloody terrible idea. It's bad enough when even generally good actors have that much power.
I really hope that nobody is surprised that a major oil export country is doing something wacky. Oil has been causing creepy behavior in the UK and Canada for crying out loud, and the Middle East is kind of famous for what its ruling classes do with oil wealth.
I know that the oil money is just too sweet for people to get the lesson, but it really underlines and highlights and dogears the fact that putting millions of lives and livelyhoods in the hands of known bad actors is a bloody terrible idea. It's bad enough when even generally good actors have that much power.
Last I heard, Norwegians hadn't exactly lost their head over their oil supplies. Though apparently things have declined some since EU-ization and the financial collapse. Still!
I really hope that nobody is surprised that a major oil export country is doing something wacky. Oil has been causing creepy behavior in the UK and Canada for crying out loud, and the Middle East is kind of famous for what its ruling classes do with oil wealth.
I know that the oil money is just too sweet for people to get the lesson, but it really underlines and highlights and dogears the fact that putting millions of lives and livelyhoods in the hands of known bad actors is a bloody terrible idea. It's bad enough when even generally good actors have that much power.
Last I heard, Norwegians hadn't exactly lost their head over their oil supplies. Though apparently things have declined some since EU-ization and the financial collapse. Still!
Damn Petro-Vikings are just waiting for us to drop our guard.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
European leaders have debated how to punish Russian for its actions in Crimea. But for many Germans, the key is not to ruffle Russian feathers.
...
Politicians - like the former chancellor Helmut Schmidt, now in his mid-90s and still, by the way, smoking furiously even in television studios - are unequivocal in their commitment to democracy.
But Mr Schmidt is also of the "go easy on Russia" school. Sanctions, he said, were "nonsense".
Germany has to do business with Russia, is the common sentiment, so let's remember that.
The same sentiment comes from another former Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, though in his case he really does do business with Russia as the chairman of the board of Nordstream, owned by Gazprom, the Russian energy company currently in dispute with Ukraine.
Apart from Chancellor Merkel's predecessors, a string of very powerful German businessmen are lining up to say how important Russia is, from the boss of Siemens, often pictured with President Putin, to the chief executives of Adidas and of the steel giant Thyssen Krupp.
Meanwhile, Russia's annexing its neighbours under the pretense of protecting ethnic civilians, raging against Western interference, and chomping at the bit about fascists. It's like WWII has flipped over on its head.
How much of pre-WWII history is taught in Germany nowadays?
This guy is in his 90s, he was there for it.
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKERS
0
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
The Soviet economy was strongly dependent on gas and oil exports too.
It's like poetry. It rhymes.
+2
TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Russia hasn't really changed all that much from the USSR
I mean yes it has in obvious ways but it's still acting like you asshole cousin at a party. Sure he went to rehab for his coke problem but he's still a drunken asshole who pisses all over your toilet seat and gets into fights at every bar he goes too.
I think the idea - or possibly pretense - that it's a clash of ideals or doctrines is the chief difference between now and thirty years ago. Back then it was about spreading socialism. Now it's just about showing that Russia stronk.
European leaders have debated how to punish Russian for its actions in Crimea. But for many Germans, the key is not to ruffle Russian feathers.
...
Politicians - like the former chancellor Helmut Schmidt, now in his mid-90s and still, by the way, smoking furiously even in television studios - are unequivocal in their commitment to democracy.
But Mr Schmidt is also of the "go easy on Russia" school. Sanctions, he said, were "nonsense".
Germany has to do business with Russia, is the common sentiment, so let's remember that.
The same sentiment comes from another former Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, though in his case he really does do business with Russia as the chairman of the board of Nordstream, owned by Gazprom, the Russian energy company currently in dispute with Ukraine.
Apart from Chancellor Merkel's predecessors, a string of very powerful German businessmen are lining up to say how important Russia is, from the boss of Siemens, often pictured with President Putin, to the chief executives of Adidas and of the steel giant Thyssen Krupp.
Meanwhile, Russia's annexing its neighbours under the pretense of protecting ethnic civilians, raging against Western interference, and chomping at the bit about fascists. It's like WWII has flipped over on its head.
How much of pre-WWII history is taught in Germany nowadays?
This guy is in his 90s, he was there for it.
He wasn't just there for it, the dude fought in the German army in World War II in his 20s, including fighting on the eastern front. Old age aside, the guy is probably intimately familiar with Germany pre-WWII history, and the history of the USSR and German during and after the war.
It's an interesting, but understated thing that most of the people involved in Ukraine, Russia, and even Germany are old enough to remember the USSR. The fall of the USSR was only 23 years ago, which in terms of international politics and history is a very short period of time, since it's within people's lifetimes. Anyone over the age of 35 is old enough to remember the USSR as a country. If the person is 47 years old or older, they've lived longer with the USSR being around than they have after it fell. As such, there are some very real old cold war thinking going on.
European leaders have debated how to punish Russian for its actions in Crimea. But for many Germans, the key is not to ruffle Russian feathers.
...
Politicians - like the former chancellor Helmut Schmidt, now in his mid-90s and still, by the way, smoking furiously even in television studios - are unequivocal in their commitment to democracy.
But Mr Schmidt is also of the "go easy on Russia" school. Sanctions, he said, were "nonsense".
Germany has to do business with Russia, is the common sentiment, so let's remember that.
The same sentiment comes from another former Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, though in his case he really does do business with Russia as the chairman of the board of Nordstream, owned by Gazprom, the Russian energy company currently in dispute with Ukraine.
Apart from Chancellor Merkel's predecessors, a string of very powerful German businessmen are lining up to say how important Russia is, from the boss of Siemens, often pictured with President Putin, to the chief executives of Adidas and of the steel giant Thyssen Krupp.
Meanwhile, Russia's annexing its neighbours under the pretense of protecting ethnic civilians, raging against Western interference, and chomping at the bit about fascists. It's like WWII has flipped over on its head.
How much of pre-WWII history is taught in Germany nowadays?
This guy is in his 90s, he was there for it.
He fought at Leningrad and in the Ardennes.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
You gotta admire the brass balls on Russia to say to the UN with a straight face: "We would like Ukraine to stop this war with its own people," when those people are taking government facilities with the threat of force.
I mean, I'm not saying that one separatist/rebellious cause is more justifiable than another. When the protests in Kiev/Maidan were going on, I totally understood the then-government's retaliatory use of force. I may not have liked that government and didn't mind it going away, but when you try to take things by force, encountering opposition is the most likely outcome.
You gotta admire the brass balls on Russia to say to the UN with a straight face: "We would like Ukraine to stop this war with its own people," when those people are taking government facilities with the threat of force.
I mean, I'm not saying that one separatist/rebellious cause is more justifiable than another. When the protests in Kiev/Maidan were going on, I totally understood the then-government's retaliatory use of force. I may not have liked that government and didn't mind it going away, but when you try to take things by force, encountering opposition is the most likely outcome.
One thing to notice is the difference in equipment. The Ukrainians were very ragtag - no uniforms and thrown together/stolen gear. The "pro-Russian" militias are using new, stock police shields and military-grade uniforms and weapons. You just don't get that kind of uniformity without an institutional backer of some kind.
Oh, for sure (And Ukraine claims as of today to have the proof), but I still imagine that 95% of the forces are Russian, and 5% are tag-alongs who just happen to believe in this silly cause.
I don't remember kiev protesters storming police station and taking automatic weapons.
I do remember them storming the political offices and government legislatures and the like. The problem is when is a government no longer considered a legitimate authority? and what should be done to force them to negotiate?
In the U.S. isn't there a requisite number of signatures needed to hold a referendum?
I'm wondering how long before an A-list politico publicly calls Putin nekulturnyj.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
- John Stuart Mill
0
wiltingI had fun once and it was awfulRegistered Userregular
edited April 2014
A different angle on the crisis: many children in Ukraine (and indeed Belarus and Russia) are born with a heart condition known as "Chernobyl Heart" - fatal in 1/4 of them before they reach the age of six - related to the Chernobyl Disaster. An Irish based charity, Chernobyl Children International, has been flying in cardiac surgeons from the US and Canada for years to provide life saving operations for these kids (among a variety of other charity work for "Chernobyl Children"). But the crisis has led to repeated cancellations of life saving operations this year - two sets of 30 operations already - and today another set of 30 scheduled in Kharkiv have been cancelled.
The Ukraine government has issued a plea for UN peacekeepers to be deployed in the region as pro-Russian activists attack more official buildings in the east of the country.
Russia and the West are accusing each other of fomenting the crisis which has now spread to at least ten cities.
0
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
The US is looking to add more people to the sanctions list and start opening up some industry specific economic blocks. I doubt Europe has the stomach for it without some concrete evidence of Russians in Donbass, but the UK is coming alongside America slowly, per the BBC.
I'd not be surprised to see Thursday's talks cancelled if things escalate any more, especially since Lavrov has basically said he won't show up if Kiev starts using force on the Pro Russians. The Kiev government has, however, signaled that they are more than willing to discuss localism and referenda in the east, if Russia would kindly stop kicking them in the teeth every five minutes.
Nobody seems to really want to shed blood here, and I don't believe that even Russia wants to cut Ukraine up and absorb it (cost too much, for one thing) but neither does either side really seem to have the desire to step back off the ledge. Ukraine because they're facing an existential crisis and Russia because they've kind of painted themselves into a corner here with their reckless bullshit.
Of course I also think that a subjugated but still "independent" Ukraine is not tenable situation in the long term, and eventually this IS going to boil over into armed conflict. Either now or ten years from now when Putin dies and a bankrupt Russia splinters to the four winds.
Hopefully Putin is mindful of that and gets on board with disarmament/securing nuclear sites before that happens otherwise I foresee car bombs in Kabul glowing a fair bit brighter down the line.
Posts
Meanwhile, Russia's annexing its neighbours under the pretense of protecting ethnic civilians, raging against Western interference, and chomping at the bit about fascists. It's like WWII has flipped over on its head.
How much of pre-WWII history is taught in Germany nowadays?
I was deliberately painting in broad strokes. While what is happening in Ukraine and Tibet are different, I doubt China wants "suppression of ethnic minorities" to be added to the list of things that demand intervention.
Does that make sense? Or am I reading to much into this since China has nukes and can tell the world to mind their own business?
Ah, that makes sense.
And probably accurate. But also, yeah, China's in the club. They get to wag their dick a little.
So, thanks, Putin, for making sure we won't do any more disarmament for the next twenty fucking years.
Want to play co-op games? Feel free to hit me up!
I suppose it doesn't help super special snowflake Russia feel nice about itself, but I'd wager that for the rest of us it's always nice to see adult human beings observing a load of horseshit, and properly acknowledging it as such.
I got a little excited when I saw your ship.
Uh, spoiler alert: that's what they're going to do. They'll leave out the parts of Ukraine that they don't feel like dealing with. My current bet is that they'll take everything east of the Volga. (I would not be hugely surprised, though, if they took the whole country.)
Russian Fiction the Sequel: 10 More False Claims About Ukraine
You mean the Dniester? Volga is solidly in Rooskietown.
Yeah, I derped.
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
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What happened when Charlemagne died?
Now take away family ties from the squabbling oligarchs.
That's my prediction, anyway.
Yes, a gas shortage would be damaging to Europe. But if Russia suddenly isn't able to sell as much of its gas, there are going to be a lot of pissed off Oligarchs in Russia. Nearly all of Russia's exports are chewed up by Europe. Find a way to wean off of them, and that will do plenty of damage.
Behold, the power of money: sanction Russia, subsidize Europe, wait.
The problem is that the economic pain that Europe will feel is much more spread out than it is in Russia.
Yes the oligarchs need profits but how much do you wana bet their lifestyles will be impacted by sanctions? Where as a natural gas hike will sharply impact all consumers in Europe.
I know that the oil money is just too sweet for people to get the lesson, but it really underlines and highlights and dogears the fact that putting millions of lives and livelyhoods in the hands of known bad actors is a bloody terrible idea. It's bad enough when even generally good actors have that much power.
Last I heard, Norwegians hadn't exactly lost their head over their oil supplies. Though apparently things have declined some since EU-ization and the financial collapse. Still!
Damn Petro-Vikings are just waiting for us to drop our guard.
- John Stuart Mill
I'm really digging the new thread title. Stroke of genius.
Referendum to Kill
This guy is in his 90s, he was there for it.
It's like poetry. It rhymes.
I mean yes it has in obvious ways but it's still acting like you asshole cousin at a party. Sure he went to rehab for his coke problem but he's still a drunken asshole who pisses all over your toilet seat and gets into fights at every bar he goes too.
He wasn't just there for it, the dude fought in the German army in World War II in his 20s, including fighting on the eastern front. Old age aside, the guy is probably intimately familiar with Germany pre-WWII history, and the history of the USSR and German during and after the war.
It's an interesting, but understated thing that most of the people involved in Ukraine, Russia, and even Germany are old enough to remember the USSR. The fall of the USSR was only 23 years ago, which in terms of international politics and history is a very short period of time, since it's within people's lifetimes. Anyone over the age of 35 is old enough to remember the USSR as a country. If the person is 47 years old or older, they've lived longer with the USSR being around than they have after it fell. As such, there are some very real old cold war thinking going on.
He fought at Leningrad and in the Ardennes.
- John Stuart Mill
I mean, I'm not saying that one separatist/rebellious cause is more justifiable than another. When the protests in Kiev/Maidan were going on, I totally understood the then-government's retaliatory use of force. I may not have liked that government and didn't mind it going away, but when you try to take things by force, encountering opposition is the most likely outcome.
One thing to notice is the difference in equipment. The Ukrainians were very ragtag - no uniforms and thrown together/stolen gear. The "pro-Russian" militias are using new, stock police shields and military-grade uniforms and weapons. You just don't get that kind of uniformity without an institutional backer of some kind.
Edit: I still totally think these 'pro-Russians' are really Russians.
I do remember them storming the political offices and government legislatures and the like. The problem is when is a government no longer considered a legitimate authority? and what should be done to force them to negotiate?
In the U.S. isn't there a requisite number of signatures needed to hold a referendum?
- John Stuart Mill
I'd not be surprised to see Thursday's talks cancelled if things escalate any more, especially since Lavrov has basically said he won't show up if Kiev starts using force on the Pro Russians. The Kiev government has, however, signaled that they are more than willing to discuss localism and referenda in the east, if Russia would kindly stop kicking them in the teeth every five minutes.
Nobody seems to really want to shed blood here, and I don't believe that even Russia wants to cut Ukraine up and absorb it (cost too much, for one thing) but neither does either side really seem to have the desire to step back off the ledge. Ukraine because they're facing an existential crisis and Russia because they've kind of painted themselves into a corner here with their reckless bullshit.
Of course I also think that a subjugated but still "independent" Ukraine is not tenable situation in the long term, and eventually this IS going to boil over into armed conflict. Either now or ten years from now when Putin dies and a bankrupt Russia splinters to the four winds.
Hopefully Putin is mindful of that and gets on board with disarmament/securing nuclear sites before that happens otherwise I foresee car bombs in Kabul glowing a fair bit brighter down the line.
I'm not even sure at this point what can be done to assuage Russia's issues without setting off Ukraine.