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[Donald Trump] Making America Great Again (TM)
The Ender
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
Who is Donald Trump?
Mr. Trump is a real estate businessman who found enormous financial success in New York City during the real estate bubble, exiting the market before the bubble burst and making plenty of coin in the process. There is disagreement as to how much this can be attributed to skill vs luck, but nevertheless, he certainly made a lot of money in a relatively short span of time.
He is currently running for President of the United States within the GOP field, and has a commanding lead over his rivals. Barring a more or less unprecedented shift in opinion over the next year, he will very likely by the GOP's primary candidate to beat, with a 9+ point lead over his nearest rival in New Hampshire (Mr. Trump also ran in the previous election, but made little to no impression on the field after dropping out early due to disagreements over releasing his net worth).
...This is just a troll run, right?
At this point, it seems unlikely that this is simply a laugh Mr. Trump is having at the GOP's expense. Whether by accident or intention, Mr. Trump's rhetoric & candor have resonated with a very significant number of GOP voters, and he now clearly has the support base to make his run a serious effort.
EDIT: It is the opinion of Nate Silver, an expert statistician whom successfully forecast the last election, that Mr. Trump is engaged in a troll campaign and that current polls do not accurately reflect the reality of the GOP field.
Essentially, the field is so bloated with candidates right now that polling involves too much noise to identify a leader. As people drop out of the race, their support is likely to shift to established candidates like Mr. Bush (whom betting exchanges are giving best odds by a large margin on). Full credit to @wandering for this information; I've been neglecting Mr. Silver's blog recently if I'm honest.
What is Mr. Trump's Platform?
Mr. Trump's platform is called 'Make America Great Again'. There is a single issue currently published on his webpage, immigration reform, which he appears to believe will fix most of the problems in America (which are cited as being symptomatic of wave upon wave of Mexican immigrants allegedly jumping the border every year).
According to recently made statements, Mr. Trump believes that climate change is a hoax, does not think that gays should have the right to marry, would like to ban late term abortions except in instances of rape, opposes any kind of gun control, believes that the national debt is so closely tied to economic growth that eliminating it will spike economic growth by 35% (Mr. Trump has not provided a source for this claim. Also he apparently believes that eliminating the national debt is a realistic goal), has a stated intention of eliminating all corporate taxes, is pro drug legalization and would like to dissolve the Department of Education. Oh, and he does not worship a deity, making him one of the only candidates with no strong Christian convictions to make a serious POTUS bid.
I hear that people strongly dislike Mr. Trump, including my GOP friends & family. Why?
Mr. Trump is flagrantly racist and has leveraged his racism for popular support, declaring all Mexican immigrants to be drug dealers & rapists and engaging in a racist caricature of Asian people & implying that every Asian wants something for nothing. He doubled down on these statements when challenged on them.
He also claimed that Sen. John McCain's service in Vietnam was worthy only of scorn, and that flying low in a combat zone to provide accurate close air support that does not endanger friendly troops or non-combatants is not heroic, that being dragged off from the wreckage of his aircraft to the Hinoi Hilton was a walk in the park, etc, after McCain criticized his racist statements.
Boy, I'm sure this topic will totally survive to see page 99!
Okay; so this is a topic that probably lends itself to toxicity. If I may, I have some suggested ground rules, as well as an appeal to your ego as a Very Special Snowflake: let us reach to defy expectation and see this thread through all the way to page 99. We can do it, together!
- This is not intended as a lolpublicans thread. You can probably guess the life expectancy of the thread if it should become that. Regardless of your opinion of the GOP establishment or other GOP candidates, only Mr. Trump is responsible for his racist statements, and nobody else in the field has said anything remotely as disgusting as Mr. Trump's infamous quote. Mr. Trump leads in the polls, but has 29-30~ points of 100 points. Most GOPers are not interested in Mr. Trump's racist garbage, and we should not pretend they do to make us feel better about our own political leanings.
- Related to the above, please, keep this thread about Mr. Trump. If your post does not have Trump as it's gravitational center, please reconsider it's value here.
- If you support Mr. Trump's platform, that's cool; please do not post apologia here regarding Mr. Trump's racist commentary. Maybe he would truly make a great POTUS; making racist remarks & legitimizing racist stereotypes as part of a presidential campaign is not cool.
So, with those suggestions, have at thee D&D:
Is this really just an elaborate troll despite all contrary data? How will Mr. Trump's rhetoric play in a general election as opposed to just the GOP primary? Do you see the charisma that his supporters see, even if you disagree with his positions? Do you agree with the common wisdom that Mr. Trump represents an 'anti-establishment' candidate? Will Mr. Trump truly Make America Great Again (...and if so, which 'Again' are you thinking of)?
EDIT:
This video must be watched at 0.5 speed. Full credit to @ronya for showcasing this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=180&v=RDrfE9I8_hs
With Love and Courage
The Ender on
+12
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
So yeah.
Plus he got into NYC real estate in the 70s when everything in the city was worth dirt. You'd have to be pretty darn stupid to not be able to turn that into a fortune.
From Five Thirty Eight:
Donald Trump is the World's Greatest Troll
Donald Trump is Winning the Polls and Losing the Nomination
Candidates in Donald Trump's Position Have a Terrible Track Record
Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom
Okay; if I understand this correctly, Mr. Silver's thoughts are that the GOP field is so diluted with choices right now that the polls are too noisy to make predictions on, and that past trends show a candidate with Mr. Trump's current score lead (19~ points) are very unlikely to take the primary (previous candidates who have taken the primary had 33~ or better points)?
I appreciate Mr. Silver's expertise so much that I'll basically believe whatever he says, but I don't know that I grasp the more complex parts of the statistical analysis he writes about.
Oh okay. And the feeling (at least according to Betfair) is that as candidates drop out, their supporters will likely shift to Mr. Bush rather than Mr. Trump?
Trump might get some of Cruz and Carson's voters. But the others yeah I think they'll go to the eventual nominee.
It's really not clear how this is all gonna play out.
Gods what a crapsack of candidates both parties have this election.
- Donald J. Trump
Shitty Tumblr:lighthouse1138.tumblr.com
All you hear out of Mexico these days is mass graves, disappearances, and cartel violence. It's not racist to assume that's spilling up north, nor is it racist to say that maybe the uneducated and unskilled workers that are cutting ahead of legal immigrants aren't the best new citizens to have.
I'm deeply interested in his spat with Jeb Bush. I think that Trump's going to snag the nomination as the establishment darling Bush isn't polling well at all. Bush is right about the whole anchor babies and Asians comments- there's a thriving industry based on flying to the U.S. when you're 9 months pregnant, having a kid, and then flying back.
I don't blame Democrats for going after both of them over their comments, but both candidates aren't wrong and there's not a "good" way to say things like "PRC citizens are having kids in the U.S., taking discounts reserved for impoverished native mothers and footing taxpayers with the bills while they buy Gucci and Louis Vutton".
I asked very nicely for you not to engage in apologia for it.
Trump 36%
Carson 11%
Bush at 8%
Rubio at 7%
Cruz at 6%
Paul at 4%
Huckabee at 4%
Kasich at 4%.
“Republicans are warming to Trump. Two out of three have a favorable view of him. Carson and Rubio match Trump’s favorable levels, though nearly twice as many have unfavorable views of Trump (30 %) as hold that view about the other two.”
30 % unfav among republicans is bad but not insurmountable, especially given how much he's turned them around already. And seemingly, Carson is getting pulled along in his wake, not holding him back.
Ipsos/Reuters 31, and Monmouth Uni 30.
Something can keep Trump from the nomination. But that something is either a massive scandal, gaffe or a complete shift in primary voter mentality. But what would cause that shift? Trump is not polling worse against Clinton than anyone other republican right now. What is going to make him burn out slowly? I guess the second debate might shake things up but I'll be surprised if something major happens. Look at Fiorina disappearing despite her supposed "surge".
Well, no. I'm not going to say why this is wrong because this thread is explicitly about the Trump campaign, but let's not go out of or way to make Trump the big bad here.
Well, candidates are going to be dropping out of the race, and their support has to go somewhere. Is there a compelling reason to believe it will shift over to Mr. Trump? His 30 point lead does look impressive, but it will not help if he cannot capture a significant portion of GOP voters as the primary field narrows.
It's going to be huge, huuuuge.
So if carson's supporters were to mostly migrate to trump, we see trump crossing well past 40% in a field this wide... He would be the undeniable front runner if the field whittles down to 3-4 people.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
On the one hand, I'd love to see him go up against Clinton and get stomped.
On the other... I worry that the country (or half of it, at least) actually might be insane enough to elect him.
Whether he would be a decent President should be the very first thing you think about. And while you may not know for sure until he gets his five years, I don't think it's impossible to come up with some kind of judgement about his qualifications or likely ability, based on his speeches, suggested policies, etc.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
I find it funny that citizens united and super pacs have essentially helped to fracture the party even further. I wonder if republicans will ever wanna walk that one back.
Different =/= good or better. And Dems aren't to be blamed for the government's current state.
Yea on rising taxes on some very wealthy groups.
Boo to billionaires funding politicians anonymously.
Nay on defunding Planned Parenthood.
Nay on walking out on an existing deal with Iran.
Nay on letting Kim Davis flaunt the law and keeping her colleagues from issuing certificates.
Nay on abortions bans without exceptions for rape or incest victims.
Nay on letting anyone fire a worker for being an out non-heterosexual.
WHAHAHFAERRGARBL on illegal immigration and the border issue.
He's also called out Walker's garbage performance and how beholden other candidates are to their patrons. That's completely heterodox in the republican party.
That's what I know off the top of my head. Yes, his statements on Megyn Kelly and Rosie O'Donnell and immigrants are awful. But the others are just as bad in aggregate, but they're subtle about it and can shore up both White voters and a modicum of Black and Latino voters. Trump would energize White people while losing Latinos utterly.
I'm very torn. I'm sure I could be convinced some other candidate would be better/less worrying from a lefty's standpoint, but as I see it he's a general election no-hoper with the least awful platform and priorities outside of the immigration/border issue. Rubio/Kasich gives me flopsweats.
Trump interacting with any other world leader would have me worried.
From the leader "Trump's America" in the latest issue of the economist:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21663225-why-donald-dangerous-trumps-america
i'm preparing myself for president trump
Most of your posted platform positions seem inaccurate. Do you have a source to back these up?
In what way would you propose that Mr. Trump would fix the systemic problems?
I just have quotes of his from different places, but none of them supplied by random chumps.
Trump is a disgusting nativist pig. He would be a disaster as president.
I'd rather deal with four more years of this congress blocking Bernie or Clinton than four years of trump and a tea party congress.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Interacting with any other world leader on policy is a different story. You can't just threaten to take your business elsewhere when countries are involved, nor hide behind tax shelters when things go bad.
This is cutting off your whole damn face to spite your nose. And nobody bribes the president outside of campaign contributions; the much larger and neverending problem is the bribing of the congresscritters through their campaign donations AND offers to add jobs into their districts or provide sweetheart positions inside the company after the end of their terms, etc... Trump taking power would not address donors giving up on their pet candidates - they would just spend MORE money to control the house down-ticket. Trump running in the general means hundreds of millions of dollars being redirected into senate and house seats.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
You would get worse candidates, not better. The White House would belong to the loudest rich goose for generations. This is right up there with the logic of "I won't vote, that'll teach them!"
Trump will damage the country and there will be no gain for the sacrifice.
I think that particular poll had some dubious demographics and party weighting, but this would be a massive realignment. Trump focusing all animus towards illegal immigrants but rejecting the GOP's trickle-down hymnals and loathing of food-stamp recipients could hold a lot of promise. Again, this shows how democrats are in a tough spot with trying to build a coalition without blaming anyone who is politically weak and vulnerable.
Right-wing populists in Europe are doing the same thing - Wif we just kick people who are not you there will be more socialism for you, buddyW. Couple that with Sanders' impressive campaign and there could be a very important 2016 election to be had.