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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Thanks For The Deal, I Hate It
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I know you're being sarcastic but I felt a need to be sincere.
"But you're cutting off your own nose!" rational people say.
"Yeah, but my face will hate it," conservatives say.
If your strategy involves scaring your own side, maybe reconsider that.
Alternatively...
My feeling is that it's because the UK and the EU are not measuring the potential impact to the EU in the same way. The EU sees the damage to the integrity of the single market, and the amount of control that the UK proposals would involve it giving up, and consider those costs to be too great relative to the economic hit. The UK sees only the economic hit because it doesn't perceive the integrity of the single market as intrinsically valuable (or it wouldn't be leaving, obvs).
There's a related issue (which is brought up a lot of you read Irish commentary) which is that the UK genuinely seems to have difficulty grasping that the EU27 really mean it when they say that the issues of a single member state are issues for the bloc as a whole. You can see this in the reaction to this tactic of individually approaching member state governments instead of the commission - the UK is working on the assumption that the big states tell the small states what to do, so they can override objections from smaller states (like Ireland) by appealing to the big states (like France and Germany). European commentators tend to view this as at best, a bit strange. The French find it downright insulting.
This is something that still doesn't resonate from anything the UK government puts forth. Probably because they can't without the government falling. But that line will not be crossed. It's not a negotiating tactic, because it's not negotiable.
I think it's more "we're important, take us seriously dammit".
I'm honestly starting to think that the UK government does not understand that rest of EU does not really give a fuck about UK.
In truth, we don't care. I'm significantly more interested in CETA and the future impact of CPTPP than with any deal with the UK.
It's simply that the EU only works at all because there is a system of rules, everyone agrees what they are, and everyone abides by them. The UK's proposals mean two things:
- the EU would be outsourcing the security of its external border to a third country, with no legal recourse for the EU if it fails to do so satisfactorily (worth bearing in mind here that the EU dies not have a high opinion of the efficacy of the UK's border or customs controls)
- the UK would be permitted access to the rules based system while exempting itself from the jurisdiction of the body that exists to enforce them
These are huge, huge concessions that are being asked for, and it isn't an exaggeration to say that they render the whole system moot, because suddenly the EU has a participant that can do whatever it wants with no recourse, and that participant is also carrying out one of the key functions underpinning the system.
It was a ludicrous proposal from the start.
I think the EU does, because the UK is a large economy and that isn't nothing.
It doesn't, however, give more of a fuck about it than any given member state, and that's where the disconnect is.
Sure, but EU cares about UK, as far as it benefits EU.
EU does not want to help UK if it hurts EU.
And UK getting a deal that is better than being in EU, hurts EU.
Having UK crash and burn hurts EU, but not necessarily as much as UK thriving.
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A no deal Brexit is bad for the UK because it means your house burned down.
Yeah, but the important things is it'll be our house, and our neighbour won't have any claim on it because we shared the lawnmower.
You've got to get your priorities straight.
It's less that and more the perpetual right-wing party problem that a large chunk of their base are crazy stupid racists disconnected from reality and you end up having to cater to them at some point. And there's no way to do that and also make good policy.
I just don't think you're right about this, and even if you were, none of the UK proposals are plausible enough that it would matter. I see the EU as wanting to reach the most beneficial agreement for the UK it can tolerate, and frustrated that the UK won't see that and only suggests dealbreakers. I don't think the EU is worried that other countries will exit if Britain gets a great deal that's compatible with the 4 and solves the Irish border problem
Blasphemy!
Not to the Church of Our Lady of Perpetual Unpatriotic Bremoaners it isn't
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And a deal that is more beneficial than staying in would be worse than no deal for EU.
There are movements to leave EU in other countries, it is not in EU's best interests to show that leaving might be a good idea.
Well now we'll never know, cuz the Tories are so dumb :tell_me_more:
The enforcement power of the EU against rules breaking governments seems nonexistent at this point.
If the Tories stayed in the EU and aligned with the growing mass of illiberal states in the EU they'd be much more effective in their goals.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
I imagine watching our slow-motion eight lane car crash of an exit has done a bit for the cause of European integration, really...
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I don't think that's a motivating factor and moreover I don't know what you mean by something being better than in the EU. What would that look like? Is there an example deal you think the EU would otherwise take but wouldn't consider for fear of encouraging other countries preaching?
If it becomes known that such deals are possible, the next Dutch election will all be about leaving the EU too. And the next Italian one. And maybe the French, and maybe the German.
Such a deal cannot exist. The price of loss of GDP for a WTO Brexit is far smaller.
And i can't think of any actual deals that EU would give to UK that would be better than just being a member.
Why would they?
But that's what UK seems to want.
seems to dovetail nicely with the EU not being willing to tolerate an irish border problem or separating the four freedoms
they're happy to offer the best deal that is actually mutually beneficial but they're not willing to entertain nonsense that would be only to their detriment
The UK pretty much always did what they wanted in the EU anyway. It just provided a convenient scapegoat for any Tory policies that were unpopular with their base. This whole mess is basically those chickens coming home to roost in a big way.
Much as I might disagree with their strategy, the Labour anti-EU movement has a much stronger and more coherent ideological argument. Still terrible for Britain/NI, of course.
Blame Brussels has been the UKs no. 1 excuse for any shit since the late sixties.
There isn't a living tory politician that hasn't built is entire career on railing against Brussels. Certainly no one outside the House of Lords.
Yep. Hell, at this point if I was PM Boris Johnson and had his goals, I would just end freedom of movement by force and dare the EU to do something about it.
Isn’t this what Italy is already doing at this very moment?