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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Thanks For The Deal, I Hate It

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Posts

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Kipling217 wrote: »
    tynic wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »
    I'm not sure why the Tories are bothering with leaving the EU when Poland, Hungary, and Italy show that you can pretty much do whatever you want in the EU either way.

    The enforcement power of the EU against rules breaking governments seems nonexistent at this point.

    If the Tories stayed in the EU and aligned with the growing mass of illiberal states in the EU they'd be much more effective in their goals.

    The UK pretty much always did what they wanted in the EU anyway. It just provided a convenient scapegoat for any Tory policies that were unpopular with their base. This whole mess is basically those chickens coming home to roost in a big way.

    Much as I might disagree with their strategy, the Labour anti-EU movement has a much stronger and more coherent ideological argument. Still terrible for Britain/NI, of course.

    Blame Brussels has been the UKs no. 1 excuse for any shit since the late sixties.

    There isn't a living tory politician that hasn't built is entire career on railing against Brussels. Certainly no one outside the House of Lords.

    Like a lot of political movements, especially on the right, they spent ages using something as an excuse without ever considering that this worked because the people following them actually believed it. And now they are caught having to deal with a base that believes the excuse instead of reality.

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  • H3KnucklesH3Knuckles Jack of all interests... ...master of noneRegistered User regular
    edited August 2018
    Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them.

    Ladies and Gentlemen, Barry Goldwater, of all people, in 1994.

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  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Registered User regular
    @H3Knuckles Wrong thread?

  • H3KnucklesH3Knuckles Jack of all interests... ...master of noneRegistered User regular
    edited August 2018
    @Gvzbgul I was responding to shryke's comment with a bit of historical irony. That quote's a rare example of someone who helped a conservative party gain supporters by appealing to horrible extreme elements realizing the danger in that kind of strategy. Specifically Goldwater was, along with Nixon, often sighted as one of the main architects of the Southern Strategy whereby the Republicans made huge gains in the South, where they had previously been largely shunned for being "the party of Lincoln", by fighting against the civil rights movement of the 50's & 60's. But in the 80's and 90's he became a very vocal opponent of the GOP's increasing efforts to pander to the Christian right.

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  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    Yeah the Tories, and to a lesser extent just about every British politician has made a deal with the Devil.

    The bill has come due.

    shryke wrote: »
    The Democrats aren't crazy but they are still, you know, running the US and it's foreign policy. Which is in the "you don't have a global hegemony without bombing a few eggs" wheelhouse.
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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie ATOMIKA! IT’S ME! IT’S DESKTOP HIPPIE!Registered User regular
    Speaking of the Tory party blaming the EU, remember how Brexiteers insisted that EU law does not and shall never apply to them under any circumstances ever?

    They’ve changed their minds.


    I think it goes without saying that the argument that a no-deal Brexit somehow breaks EU law is hilariously wrong. The source appears to have forgotten that Article 50 exists and is relying on a partial reading of Article 8 - while ignoring a paragraph in said Article that contradicts their interpretation of it.

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  • WotanAnubisWotanAnubis Registered User regular
    The important thing is not whatever EU law actually is, the important thing is that it's always the EU's fault somehow.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Speaking of the Tory party blaming the EU, remember how Brexiteers insisted that EU law does not and shall never apply to them under any circumstances ever?

    They’ve changed their minds.

    Dave's removal of the big-ass twitter picture

    I think it goes without saying that the argument that a no-deal Brexit somehow breaks EU law is hilariously wrong. The source appears to have forgotten that Article 50 exists and is relying on a partial reading of Article 8 - while ignoring a paragraph in said Article that contradicts their interpretation of it.

    Drawing comparisons to the five stages of grief, it seems that the Brexiteers continue to bounce between denial and anger. Typing 'brexit' into the Google news search brings up a slew of horrible stories. It smells like the arguments are:
    1. No-deal Brexit won't happen.
    2. A no-deal Brexit will be the EU's fault.
    3. A no-deal Brexit will hurt the EU more than the UK.
    4. No deal is better than any sort of staying in the EU.

    All of which will be made simultaneously.

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Schrodinger's negotiating stance

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  • Anarchy Rules!Anarchy Rules! Registered User regular
    edited August 2018
    Speaking of the Tory party blaming the EU, remember how Brexiteers insisted that EU law does not and shall never apply to them under any circumstances ever?

    They’ve changed their minds.


    I think it goes without saying that the argument that a no-deal Brexit somehow breaks EU law is hilariously wrong. The source appears to have forgotten that Article 50 exists and is relying on a partial reading of Article 8 - while ignoring a paragraph in said Article that contradicts their interpretation of it.

    "You are legally obliged to take pity on us"

    Anarchy Rules! on
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  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Schrodinger's negotiating stance

    Just dealing with some ludicrous number of true believers who think that a Brexit leading to a Mad Max (or slightly more likely, a Venezuelan) level shit show would be worth it because medicine shortages build character.

  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    What fresh hell is this haughty begging?

    H3KnucklesZilla360
  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Brexit going badly adds handy fuel for a narrative of betrayal, which Boris and Farage will happily douse with petrol for their own benefit. Boris is already pandering to the base with intemperate language about burkas in his Telegraph column (while actually arguing that a burka ban isn't necessary).

    tynicZilla360
  • SpaffySpaffy Fuck the Zero Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

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  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6029375/Trade-exports-hit-record-high-ministers-say-good-sign-countrys-future-post-Brexit.html
    Britain's exports around the world boomed to a record £616 billion last year, official figures have revealed.

    Ministers last night heralded the growth surge, which shows the trade deficit is narrowing, as a vote of confidence in the country ahead of Brexit.

    International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said Britain was continuing to defy expectations two years on from the referendum vote to leave the EU.

    So, in summary: The UK's trade is booming and everything is wonderful.

    However, we are still in the EU so all this is down to the systems and controls imposed on us by the EU. But we are going to leave the EU because our trade is... suffering?

    What we're seeing here is a clear benefit of our EU membership being used as a reason for us to leave the EU and everyone seems to be buying the narrative. It's maddening.

    What if the inverse were happening? i.e. our non-EU trade was stagnating or declining? Would Leavers be using it as a way in which to secure EU membership, or as another example of how the EU is crippling us so we should leave?

  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6029375/Trade-exports-hit-record-high-ministers-say-good-sign-countrys-future-post-Brexit.html
    Britain's exports around the world boomed to a record £616 billion last year, official figures have revealed.

    Ministers last night heralded the growth surge, which shows the trade deficit is narrowing, as a vote of confidence in the country ahead of Brexit.

    International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said Britain was continuing to defy expectations two years on from the referendum vote to leave the EU.

    So, in summary: The UK's trade is booming and everything is wonderful.

    However, we are still in the EU so all this is down to the systems and controls imposed on us by the EU. But we are going to leave the EU because our trade is... suffering?

    What we're seeing here is a clear benefit of our EU membership being used as a reason for us to leave the EU and everyone seems to be buying the narrative. It's maddening.

    What if the inverse were happening? i.e. our non-EU trade was stagnating or declining? Would Leavers be using it as a way in which to secure EU membership, or as another example of how the EU is crippling us so we should leave?

    Of course they would, how is that even a question.

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  • Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6029375/Trade-exports-hit-record-high-ministers-say-good-sign-countrys-future-post-Brexit.html
    Britain's exports around the world boomed to a record £616 billion last year, official figures have revealed.

    Ministers last night heralded the growth surge, which shows the trade deficit is narrowing, as a vote of confidence in the country ahead of Brexit.

    International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said Britain was continuing to defy expectations two years on from the referendum vote to leave the EU.

    So, in summary: The UK's trade is booming and everything is wonderful.

    However, we are still in the EU so all this is down to the systems and controls imposed on us by the EU. But we are going to leave the EU because our trade is... suffering?

    What we're seeing here is a clear benefit of our EU membership being used as a reason for us to leave the EU and everyone seems to be buying the narrative. It's maddening.

    What if the inverse were happening? i.e. our non-EU trade was stagnating or declining? Would Leavers be using it as a way in which to secure EU membership, or as another example of how the EU is crippling us so we should leave?

    Isn't this going to be like the American boost in exports which sensible people have attributed to everyone madly rushing to get as much business done as possible before the next round of retaliatory tariffs?

    Like if I was a big business importing stuff from the UK I'd sure as hell be trying to get a stockpile in now while business is pretty much as usual as who the fuck knows what will happen post Brexit day.

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  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    Also the weak pound makes UK exports more competitive.

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  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    edited August 2018
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

    Ah apologies

    I mean r/ukpolitics/

    And on this subreddit, yes there are. And the Brexit ultras are nut cases.

    It's a good sub, as it's changed my opinion on leaving somewhat. I actually think there's a way to do it that though is risky might not fuck everything up.

    It, however, would take at least 15 years to realize and in that time, the primary brexit voters by age would mostly be dead.

    Hence it being politically unsellable to the public ("I've got a plan that might work but we won't know for at least a decade and a half")

    Karl on
    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    I saw a fun response to the Telegraph-story.

    "Has intelligent life even evolved yet?"

    Zilla360
  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    edited August 2018
    Karl wrote: »
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

    Ah apologies

    I mean r/ukpolitics/

    And on this subreddit, yes there are. And the Brexit ultras are nut cases.

    It's a good sub, as it's changed my opinion on leaving somewhat. I actually think there's a way to do it that though is risky might not fuck everything up.

    It, however, would take at least 15 years to realize and in that time, the primary brexit voters by age would mostly be dead.

    Hence it being politically unsellable to the public ("I've got a plan that might work but we won't know for at least a decade and a half")

    yes, i mean in some sense its trivially the case that there is a hypothetical britain that is not in the eu and very successful - theres some kind of optimum outside the eu, it probably involves various specific bits of bilateral agreement and quite possibly some very concerted british industrial policy. in order to reach that optimum without suffering a massive groin kick an incredibly staggered leave is necessary, not least because we literally dont have infrastructure to handle life outside the customs union at the moment - wtb some trade negotiators!

    the problem is that, like you say, its not very sellable and more relevantly - the pro-brexit tories feel like they are a minority who are liable to have their DELICIOUS BREXIT snatched from them at any moment. this means the most terminal and quickest route is what they favour, not the most successful. this is the core of their split from people like dominic cummings, who have broadly argued that we needed to take it very seriously and slowly, convene an apollo programme style group of experts and get a (probably negative) intermediate stage to give us time to work out the details from. something that has not been discussed in that much detail is that right now even wto terms are very difficult for us - we would be moving from the eus schedule and trying to get everybody in the wto to agree to us just cloning it and taking some % of their quotas and the wto is slow as fuck and needs to agree it - and we dont have the raw number of people or ability to negotiate credibly with other countries. and these negotiations arent even sensical until we know eg whether or not we will still be in a customs union with the eu...

    to make things worse there are problems on the eu side as well that have not been considered. some of the ports in the netherlands which ship vast quantities of food to the uk physically do not have the facilities to do all the paperwork and certification required to let through all the cargo required if we are now outside the customs union. but to make things worse, some ports - eg rotterdam - currently take in a bunch of deliveries for us, because our ports are not up to it. this has not been a problem because until recently it was just unloaded in rotterdam then shipped here with no problem - but that will no longer be the case if we flop out with a no deal. we physically do not have the port infrastructure to accept all our imports ourselves!

    so one corollary to what is happening is that the government will probably have to suspend our usual customs processes for imports for quite a while or we will be totally fucked. but even that wont help the problems that occur eu side

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  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    japan wrote: »
    Also the weak pound makes UK exports more competitive.

    And allows less importing. Lower quality of life, but hey at least the "trade balance" is better?

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Brexiteers promised a "simple solution" that would be quick and easy and we'd surely come off better in it. Difficulties cannot be broached or acknowledged, and they must be sourced from external sources not our own delusions.

    Commander Zoom
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

    Ah apologies

    I mean r/ukpolitics/

    And on this subreddit, yes there are. And the Brexit ultras are nut cases.

    It's a good sub, as it's changed my opinion on leaving somewhat. I actually think there's a way to do it that though is risky might not fuck everything up.

    It, however, would take at least 15 years to realize and in that time, the primary brexit voters by age would mostly be dead.

    Hence it being politically unsellable to the public ("I've got a plan that might work but we won't know for at least a decade and a half")

    It's true, a series of highly skilled and motivated governments who could devote their entire efforts to the concept over two decades of worldwide peace and prosperity with few external challenges might be able to get us a deal perhaps, 80% as good outside europe as the one we have today!

    Let me check the social and environmental forecast for the next 20 years and see who is in charge.

    Oh dear.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    Brexiteers promised a "simple solution" that would be quick and easy and we'd surely come off better in it. Difficulties cannot be broached or acknowledged, and they must be sourced from external sources not our own delusions.

    There is no such thing though

    They can’t keep a promise that is literally impossible

    fuck gendered marketing
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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Brexiteers promised a "simple solution" that would be quick and easy and we'd surely come off better in it. Difficulties cannot be broached or acknowledged, and they must be sourced from external sources not our own delusions.

    There is no such thing though

    They can’t keep a promise that is literally impossible

    Well, not with that attitude!

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie ATOMIKA! IT’S ME! IT’S DESKTOP HIPPIE!Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    A Norway style solution is pretty much the only option that solves the border issue, because it keeps the UK in the single market and allows continued movement of people, goods and services between Ireland, NI and Mainland UK.

    Literally the only thing stopping the UK grabbing that option - and May more or less agreed to take it several times before backing out - is that it’s admitting that Brexit was a mistake and that it will take years to extricate yourselves fully from it without turning your country into an economic wasteland.

    The British cabinet have decided they would rather destroy the UK than admit that.

    muhqxj.jpg
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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    A Norway style solution is pretty much the only option that solves the border issue, because it keeps the UK in the single market and allows continued movement of people, goods and services between Ireland, NI and Mainland UK.

    Literally the only thing stopping the UK grabbing that option - and May more or less agreed to take it several times before backing out - is that it’s admitting that Brexit was a mistake and that it will take years to extricate yourselves fully from it without turning your country into an economic wasteland.

    The British cabinet have decided they would rather destroy the UK than admit that.

    The UK - Labour and Tory - wants to break Freedom of Movement, and it is willing to break the EU to do it. What the UK doesn't realize - or just doesn't want to admit - is that the days when it had the power to force Europe into that kind of radical change is long over.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    A Norway style solution is pretty much the only option that solves the border issue, because it keeps the UK in the single market and allows continued movement of people, goods and services between Ireland, NI and Mainland UK.

    Literally the only thing stopping the UK grabbing that option - and May more or less agreed to take it several times before backing out - is that it’s admitting that Brexit was a mistake and that it will take years to extricate yourselves fully from it without turning your country into an economic wasteland.

    The British cabinet have decided they would rather destroy the UK than admit that.

    The UK - Labour and Tory - wants to break Freedom of Movement, and it is willing to break the EU to do it. What the UK doesn't realize - or just doesn't want to admit - is that the days when it had the power to force Europe into that kind of radical change is long over.

    Yup. The Leavers want to end freedom of movement cause this is ultimately about ethno-nationalism and there's basically no way to square that with any sort of deal that doesn't fuck the UK.

    mrondeauIncenjucarmonikerCommander ZoomH3KnucklesYoutubeRhesus PositivePantsBLabelMoridin889
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    A Norway style solution is pretty much the only option that solves the border issue, because it keeps the UK in the single market and allows continued movement of people, goods and services between Ireland, NI and Mainland UK.

    Literally the only thing stopping the UK grabbing that option - and May more or less agreed to take it several times before backing out - is that it’s admitting that Brexit was a mistake and that it will take years to extricate yourselves fully from it without turning your country into an economic wasteland.

    The British cabinet have decided they would rather destroy the UK than admit that.

    The UK - Labour and Tory - wants to break Freedom of Movement, and it is willing to break the EU to do it. What the UK doesn't realize - or just doesn't want to admit - is that the days when it had the power to force Europe into that kind of radical change is long over.

    Yup. The Leavers want to end freedom of movement cause this is ultimately about ethno-nationalism and there's basically no way to square that with any sort of deal that doesn't fuck the UK.

    Remember, that its also about an imaginary ethno nationalism where somehow the minorities who they like the least came from Europe and they have some kind of magic "polish people" detector which allows them to detect and seperate Polish white people from British white people as they wander around the town.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    Phoenix-DH3Knuckles
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    A Norway style solution is pretty much the only option that solves the border issue, because it keeps the UK in the single market and allows continued movement of people, goods and services between Ireland, NI and Mainland UK.

    Literally the only thing stopping the UK grabbing that option - and May more or less agreed to take it several times before backing out - is that it’s admitting that Brexit was a mistake and that it will take years to extricate yourselves fully from it without turning your country into an economic wasteland.

    The British cabinet have decided they would rather destroy the UK than admit that.

    The UK - Labour and Tory - wants to break Freedom of Movement, and it is willing to break the EU to do it. What the UK doesn't realize - or just doesn't want to admit - is that the days when it had the power to force Europe into that kind of radical change is long over.

    Yup. The Leavers want to end freedom of movement cause this is ultimately about ethno-nationalism and there's basically no way to square that with any sort of deal that doesn't fuck the UK.

    Remember, that its also about an imaginary ethno nationalism where somehow the minorities who they like the least came from Europe and they have some kind of magic "polish people" detector which allows them to detect and seperate Polish white people from British white people as they wander around the town.

    That's true of all ethno-nationalisms, though. It always breaks down into the racists wanting to punish their demonized Others over any other concern.

    ElldrenmonikerCommander ZoomH3KnucklesYoutubeMoridin889
  • hippofanthippofant ティンク Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

    Ah apologies

    I mean r/ukpolitics/

    And on this subreddit, yes there are. And the Brexit ultras are nut cases.

    It's a good sub, as it's changed my opinion on leaving somewhat. I actually think there's a way to do it that though is risky might not fuck everything up.

    It, however, would take at least 15 years to realize and in that time, the primary brexit voters by age would mostly be dead.

    Hence it being politically unsellable to the public ("I've got a plan that might work but we won't know for at least a decade and a half")

    yes, i mean in some sense its trivially the case that there is a hypothetical britain that is not in the eu and very successful - theres some kind of optimum outside the eu, it probably involves various specific bits of bilateral agreement and quite possibly some very concerted british industrial policy. in order to reach that optimum without suffering a massive groin kick an incredibly staggered leave is necessary, not least because we literally dont have infrastructure to handle life outside the customs union at the moment - wtb some trade negotiators!

    the problem is that, like you say, its not very sellable and more relevantly - the pro-brexit tories feel like they are a minority who are liable to have their DELICIOUS BREXIT snatched from them at any moment. this means the most terminal and quickest route is what they favour, not the most successful. this is the core of their split from people like dominic cummings, who have broadly argued that we needed to take it very seriously and slowly, convene an apollo programme style group of experts and get a (probably negative) intermediate stage to give us time to work out the details from. something that has not been discussed in that much detail is that right now even wto terms are very difficult for us - we would be moving from the eus schedule and trying to get everybody in the wto to agree to us just cloning it and taking some % of their quotas and the wto is slow as fuck and needs to agree it - and we dont have the raw number of people or ability to negotiate credibly with other countries. and these negotiations arent even sensical until we know eg whether or not we will still be in a customs union with the eu...

    to make things worse there are problems on the eu side as well that have not been considered. some of the ports in the netherlands which ship vast quantities of food to the uk physically do not have the facilities to do all the paperwork and certification required to let through all the cargo required if we are now outside the customs union. but to make things worse, some ports - eg rotterdam - currently take in a bunch of deliveries for us, because our ports are not up to it. this has not been a problem because until recently it was just unloaded in rotterdam then shipped here with no problem - but that will no longer be the case if we flop out with a no deal. we physically do not have the port infrastructure to accept all our imports ourselves!

    so one corollary to what is happening is that the government will probably have to suspend our usual customs processes for imports for quite a while or we will be totally fucked. but even that wont help the problems that occur eu side

    Yeah, on a 15-year timescale, a lot of shit is possible. The sentence, "it'd take at least 15 years to do, but there might be a way to not fuck it all up," could apply to all sorts of things, like... "We could dissolve the United States of America. It'd take at least 15 years to do, but there might be a way to not fuck it all up." Chyeah. Cuz when you're looking at a 15+ year timeline, there is almost assuredly going to be some semi-plausible line of causality that results in not-horrible outcome, because there are about a bajillion possible course of events.

    It's almost as though people should form plans and then assess the probability of their plan coming to fruition, weighing the expected benefits of said plan against the expected costs of that plan not coming to fruition.

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  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    hippofant wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

    Ah apologies

    I mean r/ukpolitics/

    And on this subreddit, yes there are. And the Brexit ultras are nut cases.

    It's a good sub, as it's changed my opinion on leaving somewhat. I actually think there's a way to do it that though is risky might not fuck everything up.

    It, however, would take at least 15 years to realize and in that time, the primary brexit voters by age would mostly be dead.

    Hence it being politically unsellable to the public ("I've got a plan that might work but we won't know for at least a decade and a half")

    yes, i mean in some sense its trivially the case that there is a hypothetical britain that is not in the eu and very successful - theres some kind of optimum outside the eu, it probably involves various specific bits of bilateral agreement and quite possibly some very concerted british industrial policy. in order to reach that optimum without suffering a massive groin kick an incredibly staggered leave is necessary, not least because we literally dont have infrastructure to handle life outside the customs union at the moment - wtb some trade negotiators!

    the problem is that, like you say, its not very sellable and more relevantly - the pro-brexit tories feel like they are a minority who are liable to have their DELICIOUS BREXIT snatched from them at any moment. this means the most terminal and quickest route is what they favour, not the most successful. this is the core of their split from people like dominic cummings, who have broadly argued that we needed to take it very seriously and slowly, convene an apollo programme style group of experts and get a (probably negative) intermediate stage to give us time to work out the details from. something that has not been discussed in that much detail is that right now even wto terms are very difficult for us - we would be moving from the eus schedule and trying to get everybody in the wto to agree to us just cloning it and taking some % of their quotas and the wto is slow as fuck and needs to agree it - and we dont have the raw number of people or ability to negotiate credibly with other countries. and these negotiations arent even sensical until we know eg whether or not we will still be in a customs union with the eu...

    to make things worse there are problems on the eu side as well that have not been considered. some of the ports in the netherlands which ship vast quantities of food to the uk physically do not have the facilities to do all the paperwork and certification required to let through all the cargo required if we are now outside the customs union. but to make things worse, some ports - eg rotterdam - currently take in a bunch of deliveries for us, because our ports are not up to it. this has not been a problem because until recently it was just unloaded in rotterdam then shipped here with no problem - but that will no longer be the case if we flop out with a no deal. we physically do not have the port infrastructure to accept all our imports ourselves!

    so one corollary to what is happening is that the government will probably have to suspend our usual customs processes for imports for quite a while or we will be totally fucked. but even that wont help the problems that occur eu side

    Yeah, on a 15-year timescale, a lot of shit is possible. The sentence, "it'd take at least 15 years to do, but there might be a way to not fuck it all up," could apply to all sorts of things, like... "We could dissolve the United States of America. It'd take at least 15 years to do, but there might be a way to not fuck it all up." Chyeah. Cuz when you're looking at a 15+ year timeline, there is almost assuredly going to be some semi-plausible line of causality that results in not-horrible outcome, because there are about a bajillion possible course of events.

    It's almost as though people should form plans and then assess the probability of their plan coming to fruition, weighing the expected benefits of said plan against the expected costs of that plan not coming to fruition.

    actually i think youll find the ideal strategy was to forbid preparation for the difficult result and then resign the moment it happens

    obF2Wuw.png
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  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    edited August 2018
    hippofant wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    The Brexiteers on R/UKPol have gone full "it's the EU's fault".

    It's astonishing to watch.

    There are Brexiteers on UKPol?

    Ah apologies

    I mean r/ukpolitics/

    And on this subreddit, yes there are. And the Brexit ultras are nut cases.

    It's a good sub, as it's changed my opinion on leaving somewhat. I actually think there's a way to do it that though is risky might not fuck everything up.

    It, however, would take at least 15 years to realize and in that time, the primary brexit voters by age would mostly be dead.

    Hence it being politically unsellable to the public ("I've got a plan that might work but we won't know for at least a decade and a half")

    yes, i mean in some sense its trivially the case that there is a hypothetical britain that is not in the eu and very successful - theres some kind of optimum outside the eu, it probably involves various specific bits of bilateral agreement and quite possibly some very concerted british industrial policy. in order to reach that optimum without suffering a massive groin kick an incredibly staggered leave is necessary, not least because we literally dont have infrastructure to handle life outside the customs union at the moment - wtb some trade negotiators!

    the problem is that, like you say, its not very sellable and more relevantly - the pro-brexit tories feel like they are a minority who are liable to have their DELICIOUS BREXIT snatched from them at any moment. this means the most terminal and quickest route is what they favour, not the most successful. this is the core of their split from people like dominic cummings, who have broadly argued that we needed to take it very seriously and slowly, convene an apollo programme style group of experts and get a (probably negative) intermediate stage to give us time to work out the details from. something that has not been discussed in that much detail is that right now even wto terms are very difficult for us - we would be moving from the eus schedule and trying to get everybody in the wto to agree to us just cloning it and taking some % of their quotas and the wto is slow as fuck and needs to agree it - and we dont have the raw number of people or ability to negotiate credibly with other countries. and these negotiations arent even sensical until we know eg whether or not we will still be in a customs union with the eu...

    to make things worse there are problems on the eu side as well that have not been considered. some of the ports in the netherlands which ship vast quantities of food to the uk physically do not have the facilities to do all the paperwork and certification required to let through all the cargo required if we are now outside the customs union. but to make things worse, some ports - eg rotterdam - currently take in a bunch of deliveries for us, because our ports are not up to it. this has not been a problem because until recently it was just unloaded in rotterdam then shipped here with no problem - but that will no longer be the case if we flop out with a no deal. we physically do not have the port infrastructure to accept all our imports ourselves!

    so one corollary to what is happening is that the government will probably have to suspend our usual customs processes for imports for quite a while or we will be totally fucked. but even that wont help the problems that occur eu side

    Yeah, on a 15-year timescale, a lot of shit is possible. The sentence, "it'd take at least 15 years to do, but there might be a way to not fuck it all up," could apply to all sorts of things, like... "We could dissolve the United States of America. It'd take at least 15 years to do, but there might be a way to not fuck it all up." Chyeah. Cuz when you're looking at a 15+ year timeline, there is almost assuredly going to be some semi-plausible line of causality that results in not-horrible outcome, because there are about a bajillion possible course of events.

    It's almost as though people should form plans and then assess the probability of their plan coming to fruition, weighing the expected benefits of said plan against the expected costs of that plan not coming to fruition.

    IMO, it would take at least 15 years to fully transition out of the EU via EEA or EFTA as a middle ground. However this relies on us securing enough trade deals and building enough infrastructure to handle fully leaving post EEA/EFTA,

    And this also assumes we do really well at negotiating said trade details and our glorious government can actually construct considerable national infrastructure to time and ideally budget.

    History has vindicated my viewpoint of "the leave campaign have no way of implementing this in the manner they described"


    The fact is, we're leaving the EU. What I spitballed above is miles better than the utter shite the Brexit nutjobs are peddling.

    Just so we're clear, I'd rather not leave in the first place

    Karl on
    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Karl wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    EU officials are baffled that we've not taken some kind of Norway option as an intermediate deal so we can sort our shit out and then if we want fully exit later down the line. Still having FoM would just have to be the price to pay so we can set up our own trade deals and build the infrastructure we need to hard brexit.

    Of course there are two issues with this plan
    • What if we don't get those trade deals, then this entire thing was a waste of time
    • I don't think this solves the Ireland border issue

    A Norway style solution is pretty much the only option that solves the border issue, because it keeps the UK in the single market and allows continued movement of people, goods and services between Ireland, NI and Mainland UK.

    Literally the only thing stopping the UK grabbing that option - and May more or less agreed to take it several times before backing out - is that it’s admitting that Brexit was a mistake and that it will take years to extricate yourselves fully from it without turning your country into an economic wasteland.

    The British cabinet have decided they would rather destroy the UK than admit that.

    The UK - Labour and Tory - wants to break Freedom of Movement, and it is willing to break the EU to do it. What the UK doesn't realize - or just doesn't want to admit - is that the days when it had the power to force Europe into that kind of radical change is long over.

    Yup. The Leavers want to end freedom of movement cause this is ultimately about ethno-nationalism and there's basically no way to square that with any sort of deal that doesn't fuck the UK.

    Remember, that its also about an imaginary ethno nationalism where somehow the minorities who they like the least came from Europe and they have some kind of magic "polish people" detector which allows them to detect and seperate Polish white people from British white people as they wander around the town.

    Yeah, but then also don't forget that the areas that voted leave are also the ones with the fewest immigrants. They're being told there's hordes of Poles and Romanians coming over, but everyone they meet appears to be British on the surface...no wonder they're concerned about those insidious Poles

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  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Labour have dropped the investigation into Margaret Hodge, wisely. Unwisely, they claimed she privately expressed regret, which she flatly denies and has subsequently had her lawyers deny in flat, scathing terms. Almost did something without screwing it up, guys. Almost.

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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Boris Johnson 'won't apologise' for burka comments
    Boris Johnson has stood by his remarks about the burka after the Conservative Party chairman told him to apologise.

    The former foreign secretary has been criticised for saying Muslim women wearing burkas "look like letter boxes" and comparing them to "bank robbers".

    His remarks have been branded "offensive" and "deliberately provocative".

    But a source close to Mr Johnson said: "It is ridiculous that these views are being attacked."

    "We must not fall into the trap of shutting down the debate on difficult issues," the source added.

    "We have to call it out. If we fail to speak up for liberal values then we are simply yielding ground to reactionaries and extremists."
    Ah yes, the well-known liberal value of insulting other people for being different.

    I'm not sure what the scheme is here. Is the play to get himself 'unreasonably' punished by the party so he can become the underdog candidate?

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
  • SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    Considering Boris has been holding talks with Steve Bannon seems to me like Boris has just decided to drop any pretences and go full racist.

    He's probably involved in Bannon's Europewide right wing party The Movement or something or other.

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