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[US Federal Congressional Elections 2018] Tester Wins, AZ/FL Too Close
Chicago had an unofficial turnout of ~56%. I'm really happy with how Illinois went.
At our student center, lines were over 2 hours long due to how many Fresh/Soph students were registering to vote for the first time. The construction didn't help either, but it was jam packed.
He/Him | "We who believe in freedom cannot rest." - Dr. Johnetta Cole, 7/22/2024
Yeah you can’t dismiss the strength of the economy. For some reason that doesn’t seem to translate well to presidential elections without an incumbent (gore, Hillary)
But the economy is rolling and it’s hard to dismiss that. The GOP and trump in particular is super duper screwed if the economy falters. Which it already shows signs of and there’s lots of reason to think 2019 won’t be a great year directly tied to the tariffs
So if the protectionist economy causes a minor recession or correction it’ll probably be a blood bath next time.
Until then we have the house and some major checks on trump
Can the house set up a special prosecutor if trump fires mueller?
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
They would blame the Democrats no matter what. I'm not sure how effective it is to try and convince them to not blame the Dems. They always will.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
Best to consider the Fox News base population (~35% of the electorate) will blame Dems even if the Republicans had zone of truth cast on them and under the eyes of cameras, god, the country, and penalty of death declared they were at fault of everything. They are not who was shifted in the districts or why the overall electorate, including in red districts shifted blue by a rather large amount.
It is the other 65% of of the electorate that you talk to.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
+9
Big DookieSmells great!DownriverRegistered Userregular
about how much things swung in various house districts
Quoting this again because it really is a great visualization of how much of an impact the "blue wave" actually had. Just looking at who won and who flipped one or another doesn't really tell the whole story. There's a lot to be optimistic about here.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
I believe Texas Latinos outside of the border region are also generally wealthier than recent immigrants?
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
I read on Twitter this morning that neither Gillum nor Abrams are really done yet and might go to recount. Is that true? (Consider that my morning was 9-10 hours ago)
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
I believe Texas Latinos outside of the border region are also generally wealthier than recent immigrants?
Not only that, there's at least a minor undercurrent of opposition to more immigration! I've encountered a couple of times the attitude that "the new ones are making it hard for us"...
I read on Twitter this morning that neither Gillum nor Abrams are really done yet and might go to recount. Is that true? (Consider that my morning was 9-10 hours ago)
Nelson definitely, Abrams maybe, Gillum not yet from what I've heard, but could potentially change? Lots of early voting/mail in ballots left to be counted in a deep blue section of FL.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
I believe Texas Latinos outside of the border region are also generally wealthier than recent immigrants?
And anecdotally from some friends I've since lost touch with, the ones IN the border region who went through the legal process of immigration/whose family did have a very hard "I went through the process, so should you" feel to the immigration issue.
Compare 2016-2018 where the House and Senate would rubber stamp any awful thing Republicans want to 2019-2020 where the Democrats in the House will get to go “lolnope” at the Senate.
It’s night and day. Last night was a clear victory. Anybody saying anything different is lying or incapable of seeing anything good.
I read on Twitter this morning that neither Gillum nor Abrams are really done yet and might go to recount. Is that true? (Consider that my morning was 9-10 hours ago)
Gillum seems rough. There might be enough left out to trigger a recount, but it would be with such a large margin that it would be unlikely to change the outcome. Nelson is a little bit closer (which...Bradley Effect?) so might have an actual shot at that race. NYT/Upshot has it almost a coin flip who actually wins the Florida Senate race, Scott just slightly ahead.
Abrams is not conceding because she thinks that as absentee and provisional ballots come in she could get Kemp under 50%, triggering a runoff election. The last time I checked he's at 50.4%.
enlightenedbum on
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Compare 2016-2018 where the House and Senate would rubber stamp any awful thing Republicans want to 2019-2020 where the Democrats in the House will get to go “lolnope” at the Senate.
It’s night and day. Last night was a clear victory. Anybody saying anything different is lying or incapable of seeing anything good.
It sucks for the Judiciary, but yes. This was a great night for Dems.
Tester finally pulled into lead. This was expected but when I got up this am he was still down 3K votes. Montana really tries to unnerve a person with how long it takes to get the votes counted.
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
So some good news, Jon Testor is up now, and NYT hasn’t called it but was giving him 90% odds, where the other two are coinflips with a slight republican edge.
It would be nice to pull out a miracle in one or both races, every seat is going to be important come 2020.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
And all it took was 8+ years of being continuously wore down on D&D. This is the Day of the Dead / Dr Logan trains an army of Bubs to fight the zombies approach.
Tester finally pulled into lead. This was expected but when I got up this am he was still down 3K votes. Montana really tries to unnerve a person with how long it takes to get the votes counted.
Still some precincts left in Missoula, Cascade, Hill, and Gallatin Counties. And that's it. Tester has won all four of those counties thus far, so I think we can safely call that race.
Which is great, I like Tester a lot.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
And all it took was 8+ years of being continuously wore down on D&D. This is the Day of the Dead / Dr Logan trains an army of Bubs to fight the zombies approach.
I'm pretty sure it was nazis co-opting the party and Spool having a reasonable reaction to that. The fact that so few seem to have the same thought as spool is a little horrifying.
Do we have a real reason to expect recounts to help? Or just hoping?
Given the fuckery endemic to Florida, maybe?
Another election in Georgia is... another election. We'd have to see how turnout goes and if the lawsuit to remove Kemp from overseeing it went through. If you get Kemp removed, it's a whole different ballgame.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
I kind of wish leaders would drop the bipartisanship song and dance and just admit almost nothing was going to get passed in Congress the next two years.
Do we have a real reason to expect recounts to help? Or just hoping?
Broward and Palm Beach county still need to count their early/mail-in votes, are larger counties, and generally went 2:1 in favor of Democrats. If it spins it'll be CLOSE, but it's still technically within the realm of possibility
Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
And all it took was 8+ years of being continuously wore down on D&D. This is the Day of the Dead / Dr Logan trains an army of Bubs to fight the zombies approach.
I'm pretty sure it was nazis co-opting the party and Spool having a reasonable reaction to that. The fact that so few seem to have the same thought as spool is a little horrifying.
My father followed the same trajectory, although I don't think he ever landed as registering Democrat.
He still watches Fox Business. I try to get him to stop, but
My BIL is the surprising one. He was quite conservative when we first met. Trump getting the nomination was basically a lightswitch in his head and he went FUCK THIS and is basically more vocal about it on facebook than I am.
I’m sure I’m overinterpreting, but on my drive to work this morning nearly all of the Cruz/sessions signs had vanished, but most of the Beto signs were still up.
Maybe that says something about the depth of his support? Gave me a good feeling, anyways.
I kind of wish leaders would drop the bipartisanship song and dance and just admit almost nothing was going to get passed in Congress the next two years.
“Now that I can no longer legally force democrats to sit in the corner like children, it’s time for me to stop openly shitting on them, also everyone forget everything that happened in my entire political career before yesterday.”
Posts
At our student center, lines were over 2 hours long due to how many Fresh/Soph students were registering to vote for the first time. The construction didn't help either, but it was jam packed.
But the economy is rolling and it’s hard to dismiss that. The GOP and trump in particular is super duper screwed if the economy falters. Which it already shows signs of and there’s lots of reason to think 2019 won’t be a great year directly tied to the tariffs
So if the protectionist economy causes a minor recession or correction it’ll probably be a blood bath next time.
Until then we have the house and some major checks on trump
Can the house set up a special prosecutor if trump fires mueller?
EDIT: oh wait. that's just for senators. Oh well.
If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.
Who cares what the fucking base thinks
Still, Congress got a lot more diverse. Dem women kicked a phenomenal amount of ass in their house races.
They would blame the Democrats no matter what. I'm not sure how effective it is to try and convince them to not blame the Dems. They always will.
You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.
Somewhat related - 39% of latino men and 34% of latino women voted for Cruz?
I read the first part of this post and expected the number to be over 100...
Best to consider the Fox News base population (~35% of the electorate) will blame Dems even if the Republicans had zone of truth cast on them and under the eyes of cameras, god, the country, and penalty of death declared they were at fault of everything. They are not who was shifted in the districts or why the overall electorate, including in red districts shifted blue by a rather large amount.
It is the other 65% of of the electorate that you talk to.
Religion.
I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.
I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.
Latinos are not a monolith. Conservative religious values matter to minorities as well, and the Texas Republican Party is definitely aware that they could lose Texas forever without more latino Republicans.
Quoting this again because it really is a great visualization of how much of an impact the "blue wave" actually had. Just looking at who won and who flipped one or another doesn't really tell the whole story. There's a lot to be optimistic about here.
Oculus: TheBigDookie | XBL: Dook | NNID: BigDookie
I believe Texas Latinos outside of the border region are also generally wealthier than recent immigrants?
Not only that, there's at least a minor undercurrent of opposition to more immigration! I've encountered a couple of times the attitude that "the new ones are making it hard for us"...
Nelson definitely, Abrams maybe, Gillum not yet from what I've heard, but could potentially change? Lots of early voting/mail in ballots left to be counted in a deep blue section of FL.
And anecdotally from some friends I've since lost touch with, the ones IN the border region who went through the legal process of immigration/whose family did have a very hard "I went through the process, so should you" feel to the immigration issue.
It’s night and day. Last night was a clear victory. Anybody saying anything different is lying or incapable of seeing anything good.
Gillum seems rough. There might be enough left out to trigger a recount, but it would be with such a large margin that it would be unlikely to change the outcome. Nelson is a little bit closer (which...Bradley Effect?) so might have an actual shot at that race. NYT/Upshot has it almost a coin flip who actually wins the Florida Senate race, Scott just slightly ahead.
Abrams is not conceding because she thinks that as absentee and provisional ballots come in she could get Kemp under 50%, triggering a runoff election. The last time I checked he's at 50.4%.
Boston Globe writer:
It sucks for the Judiciary, but yes. This was a great night for Dems.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
It would be nice to pull out a miracle in one or both races, every seat is going to be important come 2020.
And all it took was 8+ years of being continuously wore down on D&D. This is the Day of the Dead / Dr Logan trains an army of Bubs to fight the zombies approach.
Still some precincts left in Missoula, Cascade, Hill, and Gallatin Counties. And that's it. Tester has won all four of those counties thus far, so I think we can safely call that race.
Which is great, I like Tester a lot.
No new results will be posted until thursday for some reason though.
I'm pretty sure it was nazis co-opting the party and Spool having a reasonable reaction to that. The fact that so few seem to have the same thought as spool is a little horrifying.
Given the fuckery endemic to Florida, maybe?
Another election in Georgia is... another election. We'd have to see how turnout goes and if the lawsuit to remove Kemp from overseeing it went through. If you get Kemp removed, it's a whole different ballgame.
NYT reporter:
I kind of wish leaders would drop the bipartisanship song and dance and just admit almost nothing was going to get passed in Congress the next two years.
Broward and Palm Beach county still need to count their early/mail-in votes, are larger counties, and generally went 2:1 in favor of Democrats. If it spins it'll be CLOSE, but it's still technically within the realm of possibility
My father followed the same trajectory, although I don't think he ever landed as registering Democrat.
He still watches Fox Business. I try to get him to stop, but
My BIL is the surprising one. He was quite conservative when we first met. Trump getting the nomination was basically a lightswitch in his head and he went FUCK THIS and is basically more vocal about it on facebook than I am.
Maybe that says something about the depth of his support? Gave me a good feeling, anyways.
“Now that I can no longer legally force democrats to sit in the corner like children, it’s time for me to stop openly shitting on them, also everyone forget everything that happened in my entire political career before yesterday.”