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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Million To One Shot Now Odds On Favourite

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Posts

  • JazzJazz Registered User regular
    altid wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    Did you see that ludicrous display last night?

    What was May thinking? Sending meaningful vote on that early.

    The thing about the Conservatives is they always try and walk it in.

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    altid wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    Did you see that ludicrous display last night?

    What was May thinking? Sending meaningful vote on that early.

    The thing about the Conservatives is they always try and walk it in.

    Feels more like they scored a goal early on and assumed the match was over, even after a slate of injuries in June 2017

  • CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    altid wrote: »
    On the now quite likely EU elections I would be incredibly disappointed if Labour fell in with the "we don't want EU elections" crowd. It's unlikely, but my expectations on Labour and the EU are pretty much rock bottom.

    The problem is how best to send a message that yes, we do want to remain? Labour would naturally be the best choice for beating the tories but as above, Brexit supporters. Smaller parties you have the choice of lib dems, change UK/TIG and the greens - along with the SNP in Scotland. No idea how it'll play out but I really want to see a strong remain vote for this one.

    Of course the above parties are a bit academic for me since none of them stand here. That + STV makes the pro-EU choice a good bit easier. Literally "anyone but the unionists" will do the trick.

    I gave some only mostly frivolous thought to standing as a ChUK MEP this morning. Maybe we all should!

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    I did wonder how easy it'd be to get on the list as a Brexit one, as I reckon they'd have the most half-arsed screening/recruitment method, and then just being entirely reasonable as an MEP if you get elected.

  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    edited April 2019
    woops wrong thread

    surrealitycheck on
    3fpohw4n01yj.png
  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    Speaking of MEPs...



    Some intriguing shifts there. There's really two things I'd be interested to see:
    - what the current political situation does for European election turnout in the UK
    - to what extent these reflect shifts in voting intention for UK parliamentary elections

  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    I did wonder how easy it'd be to get on the list as a Brexit one, as I reckon they'd have the most half-arsed screening/recruitment method, and then just being entirely reasonable as an MEP if you get elected.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sargon-of-akkad-ukip-mep-european-election-candidate-carl-benjamin-a8867986.html

    Apparently the bar is set extremely low.

  • This content has been removed.

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    V1m wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    I did wonder how easy it'd be to get on the list as a Brexit one, as I reckon they'd have the most half-arsed screening/recruitment method, and then just being entirely reasonable as an MEP if you get elected.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sargon-of-akkad-ukip-mep-european-election-candidate-carl-benjamin-a8867986.html

    Apparently the bar is set extremely low.

    Might as well put the people that admit that Brexit is going to be awful, like 10% of GDP loss awful, but is going to be worth it to be able to deport Muslims reclaim sovereignty.

    Because that's what the argument for Brexit comes down: "Is going to be awful, but is worth it".

    TryCatcher on
  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Not sure whether I'll touch Sinn Fein this year? Like why should they be rewarded for hanging out with Achilles in his Tent?

    I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Not sure whether I'll touch Sinn Fein this year? Like why should they be rewarded for hanging out with Achilles in his Tent?

    I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?

    The Tories would still be in government, though their majority would be something like 2. But Sinn Fein votes could have altered the outcome of some critical votes. Not just in the current crisis, but in the buildup to it.

  • altidaltid Registered User regular
    Sylvia Hermon is an odd one. She supports May's deal for some reason - I suspect explicitly for the backstop part? But in the indicative votes, she voted aye for public vote + revoke and no to everything else. I believe she's generally considered a liberal/left leaning unionist (having quit the UUP when they teamed up with the tories officially).

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Not sure whether I'll touch Sinn Fein this year? Like why should they be rewarded for hanging out with Achilles in his Tent?

    I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?

    The Tories would still be in government, though their majority would be something like 2. But Sinn Fein votes could have altered the outcome of some critical votes. Not just in the current crisis, but in the buildup to it.

    That's a thing Sinn Fein has done for quite some time though, right? I can see them not wanting to change that if voters had that expectation built in when they voted for SF. Changing without an election in between seems iffy. Of course, voters should price in that when they decide who to vote for.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Not sure whether I'll touch Sinn Fein this year? Like why should they be rewarded for hanging out with Achilles in his Tent?

    I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?

    The Tories would still be in government, though their majority would be something like 2. But Sinn Fein votes could have altered the outcome of some critical votes. Not just in the current crisis, but in the buildup to it.

    That's a thing Sinn Fein has done for quite some time though, right? I can see them not wanting to change that if voters had that expectation built in when they voted for SF. Changing without an election in between seems iffy. Of course, voters should price in that when they decide who to vote for.

    Absolutely, it's not like you don't know what you (don't) get when you vote for them. I just no longer think the price is worth it.

  • WotanAnubisWotanAnubis Registered User regular
    japan wrote: »
    Speaking of MEPs...

    Some intriguing shifts there. There's really two things I'd be interested to see:
    - what the current political situation does for European election turnout in the UK
    - to what extent these reflect shifts in voting intention for UK parliamentary elections

    I'm curious to see which group is more likely to vote in the EU elections - Remainers or Leavers. I'm guessing Remainers, to be honest.

  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Not sure whether I'll touch Sinn Fein this year? Like why should they be rewarded for hanging out with Achilles in his Tent?

    I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?

    The Tories would still be in government, though their majority would be something like 2. But Sinn Fein votes could have altered the outcome of some critical votes. Not just in the current crisis, but in the buildup to it.

    That's a thing Sinn Fein has done for quite some time though, right? I can see them not wanting to change that if voters had that expectation built in when they voted for SF. Changing without an election in between seems iffy. Of course, voters should price in that when they decide who to vote for.

    Reminder that the Conservatives ran on an explicit manifesto of keeping us in Europe before the referendum.

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    I did wonder how easy it'd be to get on the list as a Brexit one, as I reckon they'd have the most half-arsed screening/recruitment method, and then just being entirely reasonable as an MEP if you get elected.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sargon-of-akkad-ukip-mep-european-election-candidate-carl-benjamin-a8867986.html

    Apparently the bar is set extremely low.

    UKIP is established and vicious enough that they probably have a huge list of awful people to draw on. No interest in wallowing in that cesspool (and hopefully actually giving the Alt-Right a party of it's own will shed some daylight on them and reveal them to be politically toxic rather than the secret but easily mobilised youth wing of more conventional right leaning parties) - but Farage's Brexit party, needing to assemble itself at short notice, and surely having "lets stop Brexit so we can keep complaining about Europe" as the core over-riding value? That could work, plus all the TV bookings you'd get once you were known as the "reasonable one", focused on getting the most out of Europe whilst we're forced to remain within it and acting a foil for more passionate Remainers and leftists.

    Then once the mission is complete, you can then talk about your transformative time working within the EU Parliament and sidle into another party of your choice.

    I mean, why would Nigel start a UKIP clone if it wasn't just part of a scam?

  • AlphaRomeroAlphaRomero Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    Brexit costing us another $100 million
    British Steel is seeking a £100m loan from the government in order to meet EU emission rules.

    Previously, the company could have used EU-issued carbon credits to settle its 2018 pollution bill.

    However, the steel maker has been affected by a European Union decision to suspend UK firms' access to free carbon permits until a Brexit withdrawal deal is ratified.

    Sources say there is no danger to British Steel sites or jobs.

    The EU's emissions trading system's rules allow industrial polluters to use carbon credits to pay for the previous year's emissions, or trade them to raise money.

    Each free permit gives a firm the right to emit a tonne (1,000kg) of carbon dioxide (CO2), and they can be traded for money.

    In a statement the company said: "We are discussing the impact of Brexit on our business with ministers and officials from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and they have been extremely responsive and supportive to date."

    The company is in talks with Department for Business about financial help.

    The Department for Business, Energy and Industry Strategy told the BBC: "As the business department, we are in regular conversation with a wide range of sectors and companies."

    British Steel has until 30 April to comply with EU emission rules.

    AlphaRomero on
  • Kipling217Kipling217 Registered User regular
    Not sure whether I'll touch Sinn Fein this year? Like why should they be rewarded for hanging out with Achilles in his Tent?

    I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?

    The Tories would still be in government, though their majority would be something like 2. But Sinn Fein votes could have altered the outcome of some critical votes. Not just in the current crisis, but in the buildup to it.

    That's a thing Sinn Fein has done for quite some time though, right? I can see them not wanting to change that if voters had that expectation built in when they voted for SF. Changing without an election in between seems iffy. Of course, voters should price in that when they decide who to vote for.

    Absolutely, it's not like you don't know what you (don't) get when you vote for them. I just no longer think the price is worth it.

    Honestly I think Sinn Fein are leavers... for the rest of Britain. Probably think that getting a no deal brexit heightens their chances to re-unify NI with Ireland. Its no joke that NI economy is pretty much depended on Ireland and the EU. A hard border would be a big selling point for them when it comes to unification.

    Would not surprise me if Gerry Adams and Co are bitching about the Irish Backstop as much as the Tories are. A border at the Irish sea would suit them just fine if it came to that.

    The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Oh, Accelerationism, never stop ruining people's lives to save them.

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Polls indicate that reunification would win if it did come down to a hard border in Ireland.
    And in Brexitland - NI is 2.8% of the UK's population who don't vote for Westminster parties, the DUP know that they don't matter there.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    It would be kind of amazing for Elizabeth to be the queen who ruled over not just the dissolution of the British Empire, but of the United Kingdom itself. All because of Ed Miliband's weak and unstable leadership.

  • JazzJazz Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    It would be kind of amazing for Elizabeth to be the queen who ruled over not just the dissolution of the British Empire, but of the United Kingdom itself. All because of a fucking bacon sandwich.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    It would be kind of amazing for Elizabeth to be the queen who ruled over not just the dissolution of the British Empire, but of the United Kingdom itself. All because of a fucking bacon sandwich.

    I don't even understand that whole bit. Bacon sandwiches are delicious. What's the problem?

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    It would be kind of amazing for Elizabeth to be the queen who ruled over not just the dissolution of the British Empire, but of the United Kingdom itself. All because of a fucking bacon sandwich.

    I don't even understand that whole bit. Bacon sandwiches are delicious. What's the problem?

    Ed Milliband, leader of Labour during the 2015 Election, looked a bit weird eating one and got drummed in the press for it.

    Think of it like the Spear of Destiny that struck down Emperor Julian and changed history radically.

  • JazzJazz Registered User regular
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    It would be kind of amazing for Elizabeth to be the queen who ruled over not just the dissolution of the British Empire, but of the United Kingdom itself. All because of a fucking bacon sandwich.

    I don't even understand that whole bit. Bacon sandwiches are delicious. What's the problem?

    Ed Milliband, leader of Labour during the 2015 Election, looked a bit weird eating one and got drummed in the press for it.

    Think of it like the Spear of Destiny that struck down Emperor Julian and changed history radically.

    But much more delicious.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

  • KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

    Rupert Murdoch

    KGMvDLc.jpg?1
  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    It would be kind of amazing for Elizabeth to be the queen who ruled over not just the dissolution of the British Empire, but of the United Kingdom itself. All because of a fucking bacon sandwich.

    I don't even understand that whole bit. Bacon sandwiches are delicious. What's the problem?

    Miliband was not a charismatic leader, and Cameron hadn't had a chance to lead on his own (and was coming off the back of 13 years of Labour). Right wing press was not a fan so 3AM'd him (usually taking a ton of quick fire photos to get the embarrassing one where you show your pants or look silly doing an action) whilst eating a bacon sandwich. Though there's also "Hell yes, I'm tough enough" and the 'Edstone - plus an anti-immigration mug and the fact that Trade unions backed him over his brother.

    The latter fed easily into betrayal fantasies and even got the Mail to briefly drop it's beard and forget it wasn't suppose to be pro-nazi now when they ran a character assasination of his Dad.

    Tastyfish on
  • JazzJazz Registered User regular
    KetBra wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

    Rupert Murdoch

    Also Paul Dacre

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    KetBra wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

    Rupert Murdoch

    Also Paul Dacre

    Just to elaborate for Yanks these folk own some of the most influential media in the country and are generally not big on Labour by default.

  • LiiyaLiiya Registered User regular
    Ed Milliband was and is a complete dork but I'd rather have had him any day of the week.

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Liiya wrote: »
    Ed Milliband was and is a complete dork but I'd rather have had him any day of the week.

    I don't see dork as a negative, mainly because I am one.

  • LiiyaLiiya Registered User regular
    Liiya wrote: »
    Ed Milliband was and is a complete dork but I'd rather have had him any day of the week.

    I don't see dork as a negative, mainly because I am one.

    Neither do I!

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    Liiya wrote: »
    Ed Miliband was and is a complete dork but I'd rather have had him any day of the week.

    He was also publicly pro-austerity (just less than the Tories) and anti-immigration (but less than the Tories). In a choice of the two PMs, it's no contest - but those things (and the bacon sandwich) are partly why we have May, Brexit and Corbyn.

    As much as we knock them, lot easier to understand Labour if you see the previous failed election as catering to the working class Right and still not winning vs the last election going full Corbyn and still not quite winning.
    Particularly when the non-Corbyn candidate consensus was that Labour didn't go soft-right enough under Miliband and the Press thought he lost because he catered to the Far-Left (Dad hated Britain don't you see).

    I happily cast my vote for Miliband, and his interactions with general people and the stuff he wrote seemed to reinforce the idea that he was generally a really decent guy. Public persona and policy were sometimes more a grey era and were at odds with what he said he believed.

    Tastyfish on
  • No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    KetBra wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

    Rupert Murdoch

    From across the sea- The Obama Mustard "scandal".

    The problem, then as here, are rightwingers acting in bad faith.

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    KetBra wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

    Rupert Murdoch

    From across the sea- The Obama Mustard "scandal".

    The problem, then as here, are rightwingers acting in bad faith.

    But over here there is no TV Fox News, it's just 50% of Newspapers.

  • JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    KetBra wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    These were the front pages 48 hours before 2015's closely polled election: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election

    Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.

    But on such small things does history turn.

    I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.

    Rupert Murdoch

    From across the sea- The Obama Mustard "scandal".

    The problem, then as here, are rightwingers acting in bad faith.

    But over here there is no TV Fox News, it's just 50% of Newspapers.

    More like 75-80% of newspapers, but yeah.

This discussion has been closed.