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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Million To One Shot Now Odds On Favourite
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The thing about the Conservatives is they always try and walk it in.
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Feels more like they scored a goal early on and assumed the match was over, even after a slate of injuries in June 2017
I gave some only mostly frivolous thought to standing as a ChUK MEP this morning. Maybe we all should!
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Some intriguing shifts there. There's really two things I'd be interested to see:
- what the current political situation does for European election turnout in the UK
- to what extent these reflect shifts in voting intention for UK parliamentary elections
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sargon-of-akkad-ukip-mep-european-election-candidate-carl-benjamin-a8867986.html
Apparently the bar is set extremely low.
Might as well put the people that admit that Brexit is going to be awful, like 10% of GDP loss awful, but is going to be worth it to be able to deport Muslims reclaim sovereignty.
Because that's what the argument for Brexit comes down: "Is going to be awful, but is worth it".
I know they refuse to sit in Parliament, but don't they change the math on who gets a majority? Or are you talking Irish elections?
The Tories would still be in government, though their majority would be something like 2. But Sinn Fein votes could have altered the outcome of some critical votes. Not just in the current crisis, but in the buildup to it.
That's a thing Sinn Fein has done for quite some time though, right? I can see them not wanting to change that if voters had that expectation built in when they voted for SF. Changing without an election in between seems iffy. Of course, voters should price in that when they decide who to vote for.
Absolutely, it's not like you don't know what you (don't) get when you vote for them. I just no longer think the price is worth it.
I'm curious to see which group is more likely to vote in the EU elections - Remainers or Leavers. I'm guessing Remainers, to be honest.
Reminder that the Conservatives ran on an explicit manifesto of keeping us in Europe before the referendum.
UKIP is established and vicious enough that they probably have a huge list of awful people to draw on. No interest in wallowing in that cesspool (and hopefully actually giving the Alt-Right a party of it's own will shed some daylight on them and reveal them to be politically toxic rather than the secret but easily mobilised youth wing of more conventional right leaning parties) - but Farage's Brexit party, needing to assemble itself at short notice, and surely having "lets stop Brexit so we can keep complaining about Europe" as the core over-riding value? That could work, plus all the TV bookings you'd get once you were known as the "reasonable one", focused on getting the most out of Europe whilst we're forced to remain within it and acting a foil for more passionate Remainers and leftists.
Then once the mission is complete, you can then talk about your transformative time working within the EU Parliament and sidle into another party of your choice.
I mean, why would Nigel start a UKIP clone if it wasn't just part of a scam?
Honestly I think Sinn Fein are leavers... for the rest of Britain. Probably think that getting a no deal brexit heightens their chances to re-unify NI with Ireland. Its no joke that NI economy is pretty much depended on Ireland and the EU. A hard border would be a big selling point for them when it comes to unification.
Would not surprise me if Gerry Adams and Co are bitching about the Irish Backstop as much as the Tories are. A border at the Irish sea would suit them just fine if it came to that.
And in Brexitland - NI is 2.8% of the UK's population who don't vote for Westminster parties, the DUP know that they don't matter there.
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I don't even understand that whole bit. Bacon sandwiches are delicious. What's the problem?
Ed Milliband, leader of Labour during the 2015 Election, looked a bit weird eating one and got drummed in the press for it.
Think of it like the Spear of Destiny that struck down Emperor Julian and changed history radically.
Had Miliband and Labour won that election, David Cameron would have been out, and thus no referendum, no Brexit and no potential disintegration of the UK. Had Labour at least managed to force a hung Parliament again (as in 2010), as was expected to happen, the Conservatives would have probably ended up in coalition with the Lib Dems again, and indeed were expecting that result. The price for that coalition would likely have included dropping the referendum pledge in the Conservative manifesto; again, no Brexit, etc, etc.
But on such small things does history turn.
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But much more delicious.
I still literally cannot understand the existence of this scandal.
Rupert Murdoch
Miliband was not a charismatic leader, and Cameron hadn't had a chance to lead on his own (and was coming off the back of 13 years of Labour). Right wing press was not a fan so 3AM'd him (usually taking a ton of quick fire photos to get the embarrassing one where you show your pants or look silly doing an action) whilst eating a bacon sandwich. Though there's also "Hell yes, I'm tough enough" and the 'Edstone - plus an anti-immigration mug and the fact that Trade unions backed him over his brother.
The latter fed easily into betrayal fantasies and even got the Mail to briefly drop it's beard and forget it wasn't suppose to be pro-nazi now when they ran a character assasination of his Dad.
Also Paul Dacre
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Just to elaborate for Yanks these folk own some of the most influential media in the country and are generally not big on Labour by default.
I don't see dork as a negative, mainly because I am one.
Neither do I!
He was also publicly pro-austerity (just less than the Tories) and anti-immigration (but less than the Tories). In a choice of the two PMs, it's no contest - but those things (and the bacon sandwich) are partly why we have May, Brexit and Corbyn.
As much as we knock them, lot easier to understand Labour if you see the previous failed election as catering to the working class Right and still not winning vs the last election going full Corbyn and still not quite winning.
Particularly when the non-Corbyn candidate consensus was that Labour didn't go soft-right enough under Miliband and the Press thought he lost because he catered to the Far-Left (Dad hated Britain don't you see).
I happily cast my vote for Miliband, and his interactions with general people and the stuff he wrote seemed to reinforce the idea that he was generally a really decent guy. Public persona and policy were sometimes more a grey era and were at odds with what he said he believed.
From across the sea- The Obama Mustard "scandal".
The problem, then as here, are rightwingers acting in bad faith.
But over here there is no TV Fox News, it's just 50% of Newspapers.
More like 75-80% of newspapers, but yeah.
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