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2019 election results thread

JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
There was an election today. There's implications for a lot of things, but some of them don't really fit in any other thread and we don't want things to trickle.

Some notable results I'm aware of:

VA Senate and House flipped, giving Democrats the trifecta for the first time since 1993.

Kentucky Governor flipped by a very narrow margin, which has implications for next year in terms of enfranchisement, but Republicans won most downstream tickets by 20 points.

Mississippi Governor looks to be staying R, but there's some interesting turnout trends.

NYC voted for ranked choice voting.

Other stuff I know which is up, but haven't looked into results:

Washington affirmative action
Tuscon sanctuary City
Colorado tax propositions
Texas House district 28 - this district has embodied the shift of the state and is viewed as a bellwether


Anyway, use this as a catch-all for state and local stuff. Thread is mod-approved.

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Posts

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    In one of the other thread, someone mentioned recount in KY. My understanding is there's no recount condition, it's just a matter of if Bevin wants to pay for it out of pocket.

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    How did Republicans do in Kentucky compared to their margins in 2018 and 2016? If the results are looking more like 2018, that's a really good sign.

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  • LabelLabel Registered User regular
    I gotta say, if Kentucky is close, I won't be holding my breath waiting for the Democrat to be seated. I feel like the celebratory chatter I see online might be premature.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    How did Republicans do in Kentucky compared to their margins in 2018 and 2016? If the results are looking more like 2018, that's a really good sign.

    Haven't seen comparisons to 2018 or 2016, just 2015, where turnout is OBNOXIOUSLY up.

    Like 400000+ more voters up, I think?

    MarathonMild ConfusionMan in the Mists
  • TetraRayTetraRay Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    How did Republicans do in Kentucky compared to their margins in 2018 and 2016? If the results are looking more like 2018, that's a really good sign.

    Quick googling earlier for comparing to 2016 made it look like D turn out was up a bit and R turn out was down a bunch.

    So glad to be rid of Bevin though, maybe theres a chance for moscow mitch.

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  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    Kentucky reporter



    The Kentucky libertarian party is apparently run by 4chan trolls.

    E:

    The Trump-world spin is already that Trump is wholly responsible for all the other Republicans in Kentucky winning, but it's only thanks to him that Bevin was close at all. And also, Beshear, the guy that they kept calling a socialist, is actually basically a Republican anyway, so come back and try winning with a REAL liberal.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Doesn't surprise me in the bit that the Libertarian Party of Kentucky is likely run by trolls.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    Kentucky reporter



    The Kentucky libertarian party is apparently run by 4chan trolls.
    Not surprising.

    But a spoiler candidate tipping the election to the left and plugging RCV?

    I'll allow it.

    Now let's watch as "memelords splitting the GOP vote for lulz" is the framing that carries RCV forward in the post-sanity era.

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  • never dienever die Registered User regular
    A lot of my Kentucky based friends are ecstatic tonight, due to Beshear winning.

    For Indiana, we have Democrat’s winning seats in the Carmel-Fishers area in Northern Indianapolis, for the first time in 30 years. That area has been a Arepublican stronghold until now.

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  • President RexPresident Rex Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    I would have liked to see Mississippi go with Hood (D) over Reeves (R), but Reeves looks like he won 52.4% to 46.4%. Although Hood was seeming a bit Barr-like in his campaign and investigation handling. And he probably wouldn't have been seated by the Mississippi house (or at least forced a court decision). Since the republican state chambers were so enamored with the electoral college, the current law requires a candidate to win the majority of the vote and the majority of districts (otherwise the house votes on a candidate). As summarized here.

    But I am excited at this Kentuckian news. If only because of what it might portend for McConnell. And hopefully as a sign to Republicans that they're not making the best decisions right now.

    President Rex on
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Okay, back at a keyboard.
    Washington affirmative action

    Narrowly lost (49-51). Wouldn't be surprised to see this one again: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/election-results-2019-referendum-88-affirmative-action-washington-state/
    Tuscon sanctuary City

    Overwhelmingly shot down (70-30)
    Colorado tax propositions

    CC (state must return revenue over a certain amount) lost 55-45. DD (legalizing and taxing sports betting) looks to be squeaking through via .06%, yes.
    Texas House district 28 - this district has embodied the shift of the state and is viewed as a bellwether

    Dem is in first place, but this is a special election and requires majority, so it's probably going into a runoff. However, end results don't really look great, because she still only pulled 39%. The reason I heard this one was a bellweather was because it was showing the Democratization of the suburbs, so to speak, where each Presidential election this century leading into the Beto/Cruz election last year being extremely close was showing this district drifting RAPIDLY (like, noticeable percentages each year) to the left. Not quite there yet, looks like.


    Other rando results:



    New Jersey, Republicans picked up a few seats and it was quite low turnout, but it won't really make a difference in the makeup of the legislature.

    MS's main story seems to be turnout: the Dem candidate did MUCH better than the previous one with rural whites, but wasn't able to pull enthusiasm from the African American communities, so overall turnout was down. From Wasserman:




    And back in VA, we're going to recount-town again with one district decided by 18 votes:

    MorganVElvenshaeThe SauceMan in the Mists
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Cook Report analyst setting expectations before results, and puts us between good and "better than expected"





    never die wrote: »
    A lot of my Kentucky based friends are ecstatic tonight, due to Beshear winning.

    For Indiana, we have Democrat’s winning seats in the Carmel-Fishers area in Northern Indianapolis, for the first time in 30 years. That area has been a Arepublican stronghold until now.

    The suburbs swinging to D even in red states would screw up all the electoral preconceptions. Basically all of Northern Virginia is now blue at the state and federal level, when 20 years ago that would have been crazy talk

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Just a bunch of propositions on the ballot here in Texas. The most significant is probably an amendment to the state constitution prohibiting the institution of an income tax We currently have no state income tax and this is designed to make implementation of one in the future more difficult.

    Needless to say it passed easily.

    We also authorized a bunch of bonds and spending for schools and infrastructure on the same ballot, so ... yay consistency?

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  • I ZimbraI Zimbra Registered User regular


    State politics arm of the Lexington Herald

    The GOP is going to do everything possible to ratfuck this election.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    Just a bunch of propositions on the ballot here in Texas. The most significant is probably an amendment to the state constitution prohibiting the institution of an income tax We currently have no state income tax and this is designed to make implementation of one in the future more difficult.

    Needless to say it passed easily.

    We also authorized a bunch of bonds and spending for schools and infrastructure on the same ballot, so ... yay consistency?

    Skipping out on the check is a very consistent conservative view, yes.

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    Oh and we agreed that storm damaged property and gold should be exempt from property taxes

    :rotate:

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  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    What, exactly, would a "contested election" in Kentucky mean? That they just ignore a result they don't like?

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  • I ZimbraI Zimbra Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    What, exactly, would a "contested election" in Kentucky mean? That they just ignore a result they don't like?

    As near as I can tell it means the state senate votes. One guess who has the majority there.

    In good news my hometown, Wichita KS, ousted their crooked-ass mayor and elected a Democrat.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    What, exactly, would a "contested election" in Kentucky mean? That they just ignore a result they don't like?

    https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/kentucky-governors-election-race-recount-look-what-happens-now/4172935002/

    Looks like steps are:

    1) recanvas. Basically, each county clerk goes 'yep, those are my numbers'.
    2) recount, which Bevin would have to pay for.
    3) "contested election" has to be filed by next Tuesday.
    The third step that a candidate could take is a formal election contest, which must also be filed by the Tuesday after the election. Under this contest, the candidate challenging the results must specify the grounds for the action, such as a violation of campaign finance rules or specific problems when it comes to how ballots were cast.

    Last but not least, there is Section 90 of the state constitution, which addresses a "contest of election for Governor or Lieutenant Governor."

    Section 90 states: "Contested elections for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be determined by both Houses of the General Assembly, according to such regulations as may be established by law."

    Sam Marcosson, a constitutional law professor at the University of Louisville Brandeis School of Law, told The Courier Journal that this language of the state Constitution suggests there must be procedure established by law for a review of a contested election to take place by the House and Senate.

    “They can’t just make them up,” Marcosson said.

    Further, he said, such a review would be extremely risky for lawmakers to undertake without clear reasons for a contested election.

    So realistically it SHOULD be "if it's found that there's gross violations of campaign law, the legislature can step in." Given the timeline we live in, who the fuck knows.

    I'd kinda expect it to go to recount and then peter out, with the legislature instead going with WI/NC route of neutering what the Governor is able to do.

    moniker
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    chrisnl wrote: »
    What, exactly, would a "contested election" in Kentucky mean? That they just ignore a result they don't like?

    https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/kentucky-governors-election-race-recount-look-what-happens-now/4172935002/

    Looks like steps are:

    1) recanvas. Basically, each county clerk goes 'yep, those are my numbers'.
    2) recount, which Bevin would have to pay for.
    3) "contested election" has to be filed by next Tuesday.
    The third step that a candidate could take is a formal election contest, which must also be filed by the Tuesday after the election. Under this contest, the candidate challenging the results must specify the grounds for the action, such as a violation of campaign finance rules or specific problems when it comes to how ballots were cast.

    Last but not least, there is Section 90 of the state constitution, which addresses a "contest of election for Governor or Lieutenant Governor."

    Section 90 states: "Contested elections for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be determined by both Houses of the General Assembly, according to such regulations as may be established by law."

    Sam Marcosson, a constitutional law professor at the University of Louisville Brandeis School of Law, told The Courier Journal that this language of the state Constitution suggests there must be procedure established by law for a review of a contested election to take place by the House and Senate.

    “They can’t just make them up,” Marcosson said.

    Further, he said, such a review would be extremely risky for lawmakers to undertake without clear reasons for a contested election.

    So realistically it SHOULD be "if it's found that there's gross violations of campaign law, the legislature can step in." Given the timeline we live in, who the fuck knows.

    I'd kinda expect it to go to recount and then peter out, with the legislature instead going with WI/NC route of neutering what the Governor is able to do.

    Article says that requests for a (hand) recount or contesting the results both have to be filed by Tuesday. Unless it's possible to complete the hand count by Monday, it seems like you'd need to claim either malfeasance or a miscount up front, not wait and see on the latter.

    I guess we'll find out.

  • LabelLabel Registered User regular
    Sigh... this is about what I figured. I suppose it's a good sign for national stuff at least, even if Kentucky gets ratfucked.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Looks like Amazon is getting the results they paid for here in Seattle.

    Neco
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    philadelphia elected someone from the working families party for one of our 2 reserved non-majority party at-large council seats, which is exciting.

    also in delco, the democrats swept the elections there, county controlled by democrats in the first time since forever and combined with the 2 wins last election, they hold the entire council. possible good news for '20 since philly suburbs are where we're gonna have to win PA in presidential elections going forward.

    our dumb marsy's law measure will pass if the courts allow it, but currently the state supreme court said it if it goes in it will immediately possibly violate the constitutional rights of the accused, so they're not counting it until the legal battle is done. hope it gets struck, because marsy's law is absolute unconstitutional trashgarbage and putting it in the pa constitution would be a true embarassment.

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  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    Just a bunch of propositions on the ballot here in Texas. The most significant is probably an amendment to the state constitution prohibiting the institution of an income tax We currently have no state income tax and this is designed to make implementation of one in the future more difficult.

    Needless to say it passed easily.

    We also authorized a bunch of bonds and spending for schools and infrastructure on the same ballot, so ... yay consistency?

    What do we want?!
    Things!
    How are we gonna pay for it?!
    We're not!

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  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    What was the margin on the vote? I need to know how ridiculous to find the refusal to concede

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Concession does not actually mean anything

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  • GhlinnGhlinn Registered User regular
    AP has Beshar up by 5,333 votes, or about 0.4% of the vote. (NYT has the difference at 5,150 )

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  • Crimson KingCrimson King Registered User regular
    Looks like Amazon is getting the results they paid for here in Seattle.

    love to just straight up buy a city

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  • DysDys Registered User regular
    My city had a proposition up for a new Police Accountability Board.

    It was massively approved.

    Pretty psyched about that!

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Over the course of the late evening Trump said that the day before the election Bevin was down by 15 points, and his rally raised him to a tie in just one day, then the Ronna McDaniel tweeted out that Bevin had been down by 17 points, then Trump tweeted again that he was down by maybe 20 points.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Over the course of the late evening Trump said that the day before the election Bevin was down by 15 points, and his rally raised him to a tie in just one day, then the Ronna McDaniel tweeted out that Bevin had been down by 17 points, then Trump tweeted again that he was down by maybe 20 points.

    They're not....Entirely incorrect? There was one pollster that had Beshear up by 19. But it was....let's say, not a very reputable pollster. The reputable pollster that had most recently polled the race had it completely tied at 46/46.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Over the course of the late evening Trump said that the day before the election Bevin was down by 15 points, and his rally raised him to a tie in just one day, then the Ronna McDaniel tweeted out that Bevin had been down by 17 points, then Trump tweeted again that he was down by maybe 20 points.
    Trump knows that is a lie.

    Huffpost correspondent:

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    The first "this is good news for McCain" of the season.

    Media Matters writer:
    Laura Ingraham's take on the Kentucky elections must be seen to be believed: "That is the power of Donald Trump... This is all very good news for Republicans."
    The right is in full Baghdad Bob mode.

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  • QuidQuid I don't... what... hnnng Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    Either that link is broken or the tweet's been removed

    Edit: Fixed now.

    Quid on
  • President RexPresident Rex Registered User regular
    The link is missing a t in twitter.

    Video is Laura Ingraham basically claiming, "Bevin had a 32% approval rating and only made it to 49% of the vote because of a Trump bump. And also Virginia is disastrous, but look what Trump did for Bevin!"

    Turns out Republicans are willing to vote for people they don't approve of just because they're Republican.

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  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    What, exactly, would a "contested election" in Kentucky mean? That they just ignore a result they don't like?

    https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

    Judging from this:
    Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.

    It means Bevin is going to win.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    chrisnl wrote: »
    What, exactly, would a "contested election" in Kentucky mean? That they just ignore a result they don't like?

    https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

    Judging from this:
    Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.

    It means Bevin is going to win.

    What's more, if you give Bevin all of Beshear's votes he has a 98% landslide victory.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    I'm all for something other than FPTP, but ranked-preference with a Republican legislature doing the ranking isn't what I had in mind.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
  • SproutSprout Registered User regular
    Also, it should be pointed out again that every other statewide office went to the Republican candidates. Including the attorney general race won by Daniel Cameron, who’s entire campaign was basically, “gosh I sure do like that Donald Trump.”

    People just really, really think Bevin’s an idiot.

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