[US Economy]-Covid-19 Depression? Edition, though not about Covid itself

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  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    Cauld wrote: »
    schuss wrote: »
    The real richest person is probably MBS or Putin - things like Saudi wealth just aren't tracked the ways others are.

    The Saudi state oil company recently had an IPO making 5% of the company publicly traded, so probably easier to track Saudi wealth now.

    House of Saud's original game was more or less a skimming racket involving most of the businesses in Mecca and Medina so they'd get a cut from all the people on their Hajj.

    The oil wealth is a little easier to track now, but no way their books will ever be transparent.

    First they came for the Muslims and we said...NOT TODAY MOTHERFUCKERS!
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  • AegisAegis Not Quite TorontoRegistered User regular
    Quid wrote: »
    I timed the market during that one massive drop early in to covid.

    I have no intention of ever doing so again and have retired with a perfect record.

    I also may have done this, and justified it on the basis of "I haven't made my yearly TFSA contribution yet, now seems like a perfect time!"

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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  • KrieghundKrieghund Registered User regular
    Can government refinance loans? If so, wouldn't it be a good idea to do that with older loans with rates past say, 6%?

  • AegisAegis Not Quite TorontoRegistered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Biden officially off the austerity train.

    Krugman must be so very happy right now.

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Quid wrote: »
    I timed the market during that one massive drop early in to covid.

    I have no intention of ever doing so again and have retired with a perfect record.

    I did this accidentally, it was kind of hilarious. Did 2008 accidentally too (I had started a new job in 2007 and had all my investment in the default...which was bonds..
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Biden officially off the austerity train.

    Good. Now to get Manchin and Co on board..

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Biden officially off the austerity train.

    And on the invest in trains train.

    We are very likely to have an actual gold plated $1trillion infrastructure week bill.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Manchin backed down already. He'll evaluate whatever package comes forward. Doesn't think it's a first priority, which it sounds like he thinks is improving vaccination distribution.

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    They have so many really urgent priorities

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    They have so many really urgent priorities

    Plague, Civil War, Depression, Voting Rights, renaming the Huntington, WV Post Office...

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    I hesitate to give Manchin any credit under most circumstances, but from the reports the media didn't actually report what he said and the "absolutely not" was in reference to "do you want this to be the first thing we do" and he had immediately followed up with "when we do we should make sure its the people who need it" sort of thing.

    Though, with his record, I have no difficulty believing the media as presented. He's a tool.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Like they literally quoted him wrong, he was saying the first priority should be getting vaccines in arms, which is true that should be the first priority of the new incoming government. And quoting him out of context as being against the 2k was misleading to the point of flat out lying to stir up people who already for good reason hate Manchin.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    Http:// pleasepaypreacher.net
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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited January 9
    moniker wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    They have so many really urgent priorities

    Plague, Civil War, Depression, Voting Rights, renaming the Huntington, WV Post Office...

    Climate.

    Also, as a reminder, the stock market is not there to make you rich. It does not reflect the economy. So go in knowing it's working against you and just wants to take your money if you treat it that way. It's the national casino.

    Fencingsax on
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  • rndmherorndmhero Registered User regular
    Manchin will never be the vanguard of progressive messaging. And he loves to talk big or vote symbolically against democratic initiatives that are already electorally going to fail. But I can't recall him ever tanking a dem bill when he was the single deciding vote. Manchin is not going to kill a 2k bill if Schumer brings it to the floor.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    rndmhero wrote: »
    Manchin will never be the vanguard of progressive messaging. And he loves to talk big or vote symbolically against democratic initiatives that are already electorally going to fail. But I can't recall him ever tanking a dem bill when he was the single deciding vote. Manchin is not going to kill a 2k bill if Schumer brings it to the floor.

    This is the key.

    He isn't up till 2024. He is older. And he votes the line when it matters and his vote actually is the decider.

    The big fucker in the past when we owned stuff was Lieberman.

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  • useruser Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Biden officially off the austerity train.

    I saw this earlier, and it does partially alleviate the fear I had spoken to in the last thread. Now I hope that it's a substantive and earnest commitment.

    Jragghen
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Not to defend Manchin because I don't like him, but this seems like an issue of piss poor communication. IMO if it was me and I didn't think something like the relief checks was the top priority, I would have used very different phrasing. For instance, "I'd like to see vaccine distribution settled before authorizing additional checks." From what I got, he isn't opposed to the checks at all, just feels other things need to be passed first and phrased it in the most piss poor way.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Not to defend Manchin because I don't like him, but this seems like an issue of piss poor communication. IMO if it was me and I didn't think something like the relief checks was the top priority, I would have used very different phrasing. For instance, "I'd like to see vaccine distribution settled before authorizing additional checks." From what I got, he isn't opposed to the checks at all, just feels other things need to be passed first and phrased it in the most piss poor way.

    It was a news reporter being awful to the point of almost being outright lying.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Not to defend Manchin because I don't like him, but this seems like an issue of piss poor communication. IMO if it was me and I didn't think something like the relief checks was the top priority, I would have used very different phrasing. For instance, "I'd like to see vaccine distribution settled before authorizing additional checks." From what I got, he isn't opposed to the checks at all, just feels other things need to be passed first and phrased it in the most piss poor way.

    It was a news reporter being awful to the point of almost being outright lying.

    Yeah like he doesn't mention the relief checks at all. He specifically said that vaccine distribution should absolutely be the top priority and in that he's 100% correct. A big help to the econ would be getting most people who can be vaccinated, vaccinated.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Extending eviction protections and a 2k stimulus is a good way to buy yourself time to get other efforts hammered out and to earn public good will, providing the bills are fairly clean and you get them done quick

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    RedTide wrote: »
    Extending eviction protections and a 2k stimulus is a good way to buy yourself time to get other efforts hammered out and to earn public good will, providing the bills are fairly clean and you get them done quick

    I'm pretty sure Manchin knows that those sorts of things would be incredibly effective in his state.

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  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    I was actually thinking of making a Legislative Priority for the 117th Congress thread Wednesday morning, because I can't keep track of everything that needs to get done and wanted to crowdsource ideas. Then all the oxygen got sucked out of the room by the civil war threads and it seemed all the posting was happening there.

    That said my initial few ideas were:
    1) Covid - Pandemic response
    2) Covid - Economic stimulus
    3) Recession - Economic stimulus
    4) John Lewis Voting Rights Act
    5) DC and PR states

    So Joe Manchin is right in that if you don't do things in the correct order, people will get outraged and you will have a harder time passing anything.

    Maybe, maybe if things calm down in a few days, I'll revisit, but I'm 4000 post behind reading the Coup threads.

    V wrote:
    Words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth.

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Toss in post office reform and vote by mail for everyone everywhere and we got a solid list of potentially doable things there.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    If we're touching the USPO, let's throw in those postal banking proposals too.

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  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    I was actually thinking of making a Legislative Priority for the 117th Congress thread Wednesday morning, because I can't keep track of everything that needs to get done and wanted to crowdsource ideas. Then all the oxygen got sucked out of the room by the civil war threads and it seemed all the posting was happening there.

    That said my initial few ideas were:
    1) Covid - Pandemic response
    2) Covid - Economic stimulus
    3) Recession - Economic stimulus
    4) John Lewis Voting Rights Act
    5) DC and PR states

    So Joe Manchin is right in that if you don't do things in the correct order, people will get outraged and you will have a harder time passing anything.

    Maybe, maybe if things calm down in a few days, I'll revisit, but I'm 4000 post behind reading the Coup threads.

    Those top three things should be compiled into one bill and, preferably, unique enough that you're not cause programs to overlap that may delay the rollout. For example I would
    hope that they don't do another rental assistance component to the next bill because every state and locality is already trying to roll out the program from the consolidated appropriations act.

    Not necessarily something that should get pushed above anything on your list, but I expect the TCJA to get repealed very quickly and a new infrastructure bill to get done. Supposedly the Dem senators really want to get rid of the TCJA and Buttigieg already has a $1 trillion infrastructure bill written to propose quickly.

    moniker
  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    edited January 9
    Oghulk wrote: »
    I was actually thinking of making a Legislative Priority for the 117th Congress thread Wednesday morning, because I can't keep track of everything that needs to get done and wanted to crowdsource ideas. Then all the oxygen got sucked out of the room by the civil war threads and it seemed all the posting was happening there.

    That said my initial few ideas were:
    1) Covid - Pandemic response
    2) Covid - Economic stimulus
    3) Recession - Economic stimulus
    4) John Lewis Voting Rights Act
    5) DC and PR states

    So Joe Manchin is right in that if you don't do things in the correct order, people will get outraged and you will have a harder time passing anything.

    Maybe, maybe if things calm down in a few days, I'll revisit, but I'm 4000 post behind reading the Coup threads.

    Those top three things should be compiled into one bill and, preferably, unique enough that you're not cause programs to overlap that may delay the rollout. For example I would
    hope that they don't do another rental assistance component to the next bill because every state and locality is already trying to roll out the program from the consolidated appropriations act.

    Not necessarily something that should get pushed above anything on your list, but I expect the TCJA to get repealed very quickly and a new infrastructure bill to get done. Supposedly the Dem senators really want to get rid of the TCJA and Buttigieg already has a $1 trillion infrastructure bill written to propose quickly.

    Actually now that I think of it, they also need to hold inquiries and hearings on a variety of social issues plaguing our country, plus conduct hearings on all the new appointments. They will be very busy for the first time in 10 years.

    E: If everything $$ related has to get rolled into one budget bill, repealing the TCJA could help pay for it.

    silence1186 on
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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Yeah, one thing I've learned with the media. Is that you get some types, where you need to make sure you have specific phrasing because they'll manage to fuck up the message otherwise and it hardly matters whether it was intentional or not.

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  • BrainleechBrainleech 機知に富んだコメントはここにあります Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Not to defend Manchin because I don't like him, but this seems like an issue of piss poor communication. IMO if it was me and I didn't think something like the relief checks was the top priority, I would have used very different phrasing. For instance, "I'd like to see vaccine distribution settled before authorizing additional checks." From what I got, he isn't opposed to the checks at all, just feels other things need to be passed first and phrased it in the most piss poor way.

    Since they are currently fumbling the vaccine {even basic info of do I pay for it? Does insurance? The very lack of that clear info and other points} Combined with the ideal they talk like reopening is waving a magic wand and ta da reopen
    as you have how many people out of work and very likely unable to return to the jobs they had before?
    The timeline Biden said of reopening schools, businesses and such by March seemed really far fetched when he said it and that was in the first salvo of the vaccine
    We currently would be lucky if it reopens this fall

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  • furbatfurbat Registered User regular
    NIO became the third most valuable car company today. They delivered 36k cars last year.

    WSB had to delete posts by CCP members talking up the company yesterday. Huge effort to talk the company up. More pump and dump.

    Also, about an hour ago they announced they were selling 1.3 billion senior convertible notes. So, junk bonds.

    Tesla was down about 8% today.

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  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    For reference GM delivered 2.8 million vehicles in the US in 2019

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  • Trajan45Trajan45 Registered User regular
    Another mortgage question. Prices on houses are skyrocketing around DC, with an extra $100,000 being thrown on almost all sales at minimum. I understand sellers can get away with this as interest rates are at historic lows and the lower the interest rate, the more you can afford. However as someone who may not stay in the area for 15 years or so, this feels like a trap? While we may be able to afford the monthly costs, we'll be paying a crazy high price, and if we want to sell in 5-10 years, interest rates may be back around 4-5% and folks may not be able to afford the same price we paid. Does that make sense?

    I'm just wondering if I'm talking myself into home ownership due to the super low interest rates and that could end up biting me down the road.

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  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    It does indeed make sense to be wary of that if you aren’t sure you’re going to be around.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited January 14
    Trajan45 wrote: »
    Another mortgage question. Prices on houses are skyrocketing around DC, with an extra $100,000 being thrown on almost all sales at minimum. I understand sellers can get away with this as interest rates are at historic lows and the lower the interest rate, the more you can afford. However as someone who may not stay in the area for 15 years or so, this feels like a trap? While we may be able to afford the monthly costs, we'll be paying a crazy high price, and if we want to sell in 5-10 years, interest rates may be back around 4-5% and folks may not be able to afford the same price we paid. Does that make sense?

    I'm just wondering if I'm talking myself into home ownership due to the super low interest rates and that could end up biting me down the road.

    15 years is likely long enough to merit ownership, running the numbers for your situation (and especially if you can manage a 15 year mortgage), but 5-10 is a lot more questionable as to whether it would be worth it versus a long term rental lease. DC does have a bit of the benefit of a permanent jobs guarantee from the Federal government (especially for highly educated folks) which will raise the cost of living in general like any other boom town. But it is still always a risk that you pay too much for what you get.

    moniker on
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  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    And selling a house when you want to move is a major PITA. My rule of thumb, think about buying if you:

    1. Expect to stay in the place for a decade.
    2. Are comfortable learning about and doing a bunch of minor maintenance. (e.g. What's a flame sensor on a furnace and how do I change it? Bam, just saved you $300. YouTube is great for this.)
    3. You are disciplined enough to keep a couple thousand in savings for the occasional disaster.

  • southwicksouthwick Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Trajan45 wrote: »
    Another mortgage question. Prices on houses are skyrocketing around DC, with an extra $100,000 being thrown on almost all sales at minimum. I understand sellers can get away with this as interest rates are at historic lows and the lower the interest rate, the more you can afford. However as someone who may not stay in the area for 15 years or so, this feels like a trap? While we may be able to afford the monthly costs, we'll be paying a crazy high price, and if we want to sell in 5-10 years, interest rates may be back around 4-5% and folks may not be able to afford the same price we paid. Does that make sense?

    I'm just wondering if I'm talking myself into home ownership due to the super low interest rates and that could end up biting me down the road.

    15 years is likely long enough to merit ownership, running the numbers for your situation (and especially if you can manage a 15 year mortgage), but 5-10 is a lot more questionable as to whether it would be worth it versus a long term rental lease. DC does have a bit of the benefit of a permanent jobs guarantee from the Federal government (especially for highly educated folks) which will raise the cost of living in general like any other boom town. But it is still always a risk that you pay too much for what you get.

    I would also say, the current housing market over pricing is happening all over the place, so wherever you move MAY have the same issue. 15 years is a long time in the future, so I don't think its crazy to take the plunge now. We had to overpay by a bit on our current home 3 years ago, but if we had waited, we would be asking the same questions we did last time since, if anything, prices have continued to go up.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    "Overpaying" for housing assumes the price will drop at some point. I laugh at this idea personally. No one I know in the last 10 years who's tried to play that game has won.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    "Overpaying" for housing assumes the price will drop at some point. I laugh at this idea personally. No one I know in the last 10 years who's tried to play that game has won.

    Literally 13 years ago we had a housing collapse.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited January 14
    moniker wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    "Overpaying" for housing assumes the price will drop at some point. I laugh at this idea personally. No one I know in the last 10 years who's tried to play that game has won.

    Literally 13 years ago we had a housing collapse.

    I'm not even sure you can see that in the housing market stats up here. I'm not aware of it changing much of anything when it came to housing prices. And even the dip in the US was only for a bit afaik.

    shryke on
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    "Overpaying" for housing assumes the price will drop at some point. I laugh at this idea personally. No one I know in the last 10 years who's tried to play that game has won.

    Literally 13 years ago we had a housing collapse.

    I'm not even sure you can see that in the housing market stats up here. I'm not aware of it changing much of anything when it came to housing prices. And even the dip in the US was only for a bit afaik.

    There were areas it was not so much a collapse but a period of stagnation in pricing. Around here the price never dropped that much but also it was not that out of wack in the first place.

    HappylilElfFencingsax
  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    Seems like so long as you're relatively smart about what you're buying, and you're not sitting on a ticking time bomb of an ARM, and/or you have good savings or a reasonable expectation your job will stay stable - overpaying is probably never going to hurt you in the long run when it comes to buying real estate.

    I've only ever seen one situation where that wasn't true, where someone converted a bunch of military housing outside of Reno NV to small condos at the height of the market before the 2008 crash, and the people who bought those places probably over paid by about $150k. And that housing stock was so old and cheap, and the location so far outside of the city, that the prices likely never recovered.

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