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The General [Coronavirus] Discussion Thread can't open until schools do.
ceres
When the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
When the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
This thread is like the other discussion threads, but without the "Democrats are awesome/evil" which is extremely tiring, and enough about covid is extremely tiring.
This thread is different from the updates thread. The updates thread is for posting updates (new news) so that people who just want new information (or clarification of it) don't need to dig through posts about your uncle to get to it; this one is for discussing how we are affected as individuals, and families, and communities. Feel free to cross-post from there to continue discussions.
Oh yeah, and if you are throwing a bunch of numbers out there, or info not everyone might have, cite your sources. It helps keep confusion/misinformation to a minimum and people will like you slightly more.
This thread is different from the updates thread. The updates thread is for posting updates (new news) so that people who just want new information (or clarification of it) don't need to dig through posts about your uncle to get to it; this one is for discussing how we are affected as individuals, and families, and communities. Feel free to cross-post from there to continue discussions.
Oh yeah, and if you are throwing a bunch of numbers out there, or info not everyone might have, cite your sources. It helps keep confusion/misinformation to a minimum and people will like you slightly more.
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
ceres on
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Canada has its own share of cases for sure, and a mixed bag of responses, but overall with ~10 times the population and ~100 times the cases, it's... not great.
So, like, a year or two at this rate (even steady, not increasing as it has been) before the US has endured more cases than Canada has people.
I hope that's the only number substantially comparable, before we start getting into the 'potentially X% dead' style contrasts, which would be all the more horrifying than those lost to this already are.
Establishments are required to ensure their customers/guests wear masks. There is an initial warning, then a followup inspection, then OSHA gets involved, and if they need to stay involved, fines. There are more exceptions to the mask mandate than I would like but it's still really good and around here, at least at the few places we ever go, we've seen really good compliance! So that's good!
Pretty much every state is under testing, so I’d bet money that there are a fair number of people who die at home untested and are chalked up as generic pneumonia.
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Iirc excess deaths has us at 200k+ and even that is a lagging indicator.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
This is a paper which takes the dumb count of deaths for March and May and finds that it was 122k above normal compared to the 95k reported deaths.
And since that is the dumb count and does not account for lockdown effects its likely an underestimation. Which is to say that if we’re at 130k officially then our real count almost cannot be lower than 167
"That's I-19, as in, I have Covid-19!" [/Saul Goodman]
The American Academy of Pediatrics has recommended reopening schools in the US.
"With the above principles in mind, the AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school. The importance of in-person learning is well-documented, and there is already evidence of the negative impacts on children because of school closures in the spring of 2020. Lengthy time away from school and associated interruption of supportive services often results in social isolation, making it difficult for schools to identify and address important learning deficits as well as child and adolescent physical or sexual abuse, substance use, depression, and suicidal ideation. This, in turn, places children and adolescents at considerable risk of morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. Beyond the educational impact and social impact of school closures, there has been substantial impact on food security and physical activity for children and families."
We do know that the cases is a pretty massive undercount too though, we're probably at 25 million cases at least.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/real-number-of-coronavirus-cases-underreported-us-china-italy-2020-4?amp
There are lots of solid articles like this, and the numbers line up for this being true in all well tested populations.
So, 5-10% down only 55-65% of the population to go...
Oh, and as an aside, people wanted some links for my "hold on now, other diseases are also terrible" post in the last thread.
Diarrhea diseases in India in 2012 in children
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4367049/
Diarrheal diseases kill 300k children a year in 2012.
Cancer deaths in the USA
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cancer.org/research/cancer-facts-statistics/all-cancer-facts-figures/cancer-facts-figures-2019.html
All cancers kill 610k a year in the USA, lung cancer kills 140k
Tuberculosis burden worldwide
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis
Tuberculosis kills 1.5 million per year.
Now, coronavirus is going to have a solid shot at killing 100 million of us around the world this year but, its not in the lead yet.
The virus is so widespread we missed our opportunity to eliminate it via quarantine, and the federal government won't pay for any states to manage the virus or unemployment benefits, so everyone has to go back to work and kids back to school, and we wait for covid to burn itself through the population.
While I can certainly appreciate this, the simple fact is that Covid-19 makes schools an ideal vector for an outbreak; you have a large number of people concentrated together and then spreading out to a wider area multiple times a week.
What's gonna be real funny is when some schools can't stay open because too many staff are sick/dead.
The entire idea that we can return to normal at any level is a fantasy. We will try, kill thousands, break a bunch of institutions and the economy, and then finally panic back into some form of lockdown.
That’s because the U.S. under constant waves of this virus becomes a pariah state. Investors need stability, and there will be no stability until the virus is contained.
Maybe if the entire world was failing at containment, the U.S. strategy could work. With Arizona having more daily cases than the EU, it definitely won’t.
Herd immunity is also a fantasy. Might as well wish for Jesus to come down and make the virus go away.
All that and teaching kids the knowledge and skills they need to succeed in life. No pressure!
Doctors are notoriously shitty experts at anything even slightly out of their specific field.
I bet podiatrists and plastic surgeons think it's totally cool if we open up again, too.
I can't say for certain, but I recall NYC was seeing about as many surplus deaths not attributed to COVID as they were reporting as confirmed COVID deaths.
You gotta figure some decrease in accidental deaths due to accidents, workplace injuries, etc attributable to the lockdown and some increase offsetting that due to people postponing elective surgeries or avoiding hospitals...but the ballpark figures I've seen say the real number of deaths due to COVID and knock-on effects is up to double the 'confirmed' count. And that was NYC overwhelmed but not really putting their thumb on the scale like a lot of states might be inclined to do.
The county (rural TN) we are at is reporting 21 cases, 12 recovered for the whole epidemic. Five people at the local hardware store have tested positive, and three people that our neighbor works with have tested positive.
Its POSSIBLE out of the minimal contact we have had down we have that degree of separation for like 90% of the cases in the county having talked to like four people this whole week, but I'm pretty sure those numbers TN is reporting are pure bullshit.
i do not care, y'all are going to kill my mom.
On schooling: would it be possible to maybe go back to a one room schoolhouse kind of thing? find a group, create a bubble, and work through teaching the group of kids that way? I dunno. was just thinking about how the homeschool kids back home used to do it. but there were liker 30 of them (farm families) and the parents took turns.
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I feel like I don't want random parents teaching my kid
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Random members of the public aren't exactly making a good case that they can be trusted right now.
True and good to keep in mind. But child health is the specific field of pediatricians. I'd say thier word on on this subject is mostly trustworthy. A little less so on the mental health aspect, perhaps.
When this thing first hit and schools in Sweden stayed open that was my first thought as well but it hasn't really materialised.
From what I've seen there have been single digit publicised outbreaks and only a single death among teachers connected to those outbreaks. If anything teaching looks to be quite a bit safer than many other professions right now.
That might be useful to keep kids from falling far behind on on knowledge, but it won't count for accreditation. And as mentioned it entirely depends on the people participating.
Come to think of it I would love a D&D teaching group. We have scientist and professionals across lots of different fields.
I mean, it wouldn't really be random.
You'd be able to teach and have your kid learning with their friends.
Like, going just from where I am now, Ellie has a group of about 5 close friends. And we actually get along with their parents pretty well. Could i theoretically see us all getting together and agreeing to be a school pod? Yes. Would I want those other parents to be teaching my kid Health and Religion or anything? No. But ABCs and 123s? Sure.
I'm lucky in that at the moment it isn't an idea I have to worry about. But it is an idea.
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So much for "it's going to disappear on its own."
For so many subjects, learning requires a foundation of what came before, and I don't think it's good or responsible to assume a level of retention from the at-home lessons during a pandemic to in-person classrooms under normal circumstances.
I don't see any scenario where they won't need to essentially be re-taught the cirriculum that was introduced after schools were closed, and that's going to be further compounded the longer schools remain closed.
Just in time for a nice patriotic Fourth of July surrender.
But yeah, the real problem is not that kids can't learn that way, but that it requires a level of quarantine trust which you can't really give in 2020 USA.
I presume we're going to see more data about this as time evolves, but we might take years to get a clear picture.
Terrifying symptoms. Remember that "Recovered" is an arbitrary distinction. The lasting impacts go beyond the initial infection.
I'm particularly freaked out, personally, because periodic extreme tachycardia is already something that's landed me in the ER, and got me wearing a heart monitor for 30 days without interruption. That's not something I want to make any worse than it already is.
This is what people are going to have to "Live with". Perhaps for the rest of their lives.
To be fair, at this point there isn't exactly a lot the federal government can actually do given how widely this shit has spread and how many people are refusing to use common sense for dealing with it.
Like, if trump had taken put forthe the most basic effort to corral this thing back in january or early febuary you could have probably been ahead of europe at this point.