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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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  • ChillyWillyChillyWilly Registered User regular
    PAFC Top 10 Finisher in Seasons 1 and 3. 2nd in Seasons 4 and 5. Final 4 in Season 6.
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  • A Half Eaten OreoA Half Eaten Oreo Registered User regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    And what is PA, NC and GA looking like?

    NYT has Biden favored in GA, but Trump favored in NC, both mostly have dem votes outstanding, just a matter of how much. PA I think is in who the hell knows, and we won't know for a few days situation.

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    It feels like there's a "wow this was so close, basically no different from 2016" vibe starting to form. And it's just not gonna be reflected in the results. Biden is gonna clear the tipping point with two states to spare, and when all the counting is done he'll have the popular vote by 4-6 points. It's a decisive victory, even if it's not *quite* as big as we hoped.

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  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud friend pelican soft and relaxing mouthRegistered User regular
    Why do we have to do all the work of rehabbing our neighbors?

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  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Why do we have to do all the work of rehabbing our neighbors?

    To win?

    Aridhol on
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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    I'm getting ready to head to bed down here in kiwi land.

    Just wanted to pop in to say I love you all. And we've still got each other and I'm sorry and.... Yeah.

    See you all in a few hours

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  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    It feels like there's a "wow this was so close, basically no different from 2016" vibe starting to form. And it's just not gonna be reflected in the results. Biden is gonna clear the tipping point with two states to spare, and when all the counting is done he'll have the popular vote by 4-6 points. It's a decisive victory, even if it's not *quite* as big as we hoped.

    A 4-6 point popular vote lead shouldn't be a nail biting election that takes days/weeks to know the results of. Abolish the Electoral College.

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    Lol, Cuomo is so confused by the new Wisconsin data. The guy managing the screen has had to explain it to him like 4 different times now.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Was starting to get a little worried about Wisconsin when they added some votes (going from 81% to 84%) and Biden was STILL behind by over 100,000. We just need the leaning blue states to stay blue and get Michigan and that's the ballgame.

  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Why do we have to do all the work of rehabbing our neighbors?

    To win?

    how do you rehab someone with their beliefs?

    the nature of their beliefs precludes it

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    It feels like there's a "wow this was so close, basically no different from 2016" vibe starting to form. And it's just not gonna be reflected in the results. Biden is gonna clear the tipping point with two states to spare, and when all the counting is done he'll have the popular vote by 4-6 points. It's a decisive victory, even if it's not *quite* as big as we hoped.

    A 4-6 point popular vote lead shouldn't be a nail biting election that takes days/weeks to know the results of. Abolish the Electoral College.


    Yes, but also it wouldn't have been a nailbiter if the votes had been counted quickly and in a logical order. But abolish the EC regardless.

    H3KnucklesGnome-Interruptus
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    That thing that Milwaukee just did? Detroit will do it soon, Atlanta will probably do it in the morning, and Philadelphia will do it some time this week when they get around to it.

    This election felt a lot closer than it will actually end up being.

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  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I think Biden still has a good chance but this is hardly a rebuke of trumpism.

    Deliberately shrinking that big tent and setting aside 35%+ of the country as evil racists is not the winning strategy we imagined.

    I mean, they ARE evil racists. I don't get your point. We weren't appealing enough to fascists?

    I would contend that a different approach would be more effective in actually gaining power and winning elections.

    This is not the same as me agreeing with idiot racists.

    We sure feel good calling ignorant racists, ignorant racists but it sure feels bad to lose the country to them twice in a row.

    So yeah, we didn't do enough to bring people into the big tent and here we are.

    The damming evidence is Trump increasing his pop vote. You think that is because he's so appealing in message and personality?

    People get shouted down here for saying we need to actively try to move the idiot "all lives matter" racists or that you could have any dialog with family members in this category (I personally was told to cut ties with my dad) but all that does is LITERALLY solidify those people in opposition.

    I want to stress that I think this SUCKS and that I am on the side of virtually everyone here. All I am saying as an outsider is that the clear "good vs bad" lines that are drawn today are counterproductive.

    Have you managed to convince your dad?

    I have not. He maintains that "natives" are stealing our tax money and are "lazy". I did convince him to vote Green from the environmental and economic perspective though which is a move away from the Conservative side. I may never get him to not be racist, which he is, but I think I can move him into other things such as climate, safety nets, and govt transparency.

    If you're asking me why I haven't moved my 65 year old dad into the ever shrinking progressive tent I would just say I'm not interested in a group with a sign outside that says NO:(list of 500 things)

    stopgap
  • DaypigeonDaypigeon Registered User regular
    i feel like if you want a big tent a better place to pitch it would be over the 40% of eligible voters who, y'know, don't, rather than the folks who have already committed to all the shitty republican views for years or decades but maybe don't like how mask off the president is

    obviously not all non-voters are winnable but even a small chunk of that group is probably larger than what you could shave off of the death cult at this point, imo

    which isn't to say individuals shouldn't try to convince their friends and family members, but on the national stage the money is probably better used chasing anyone but the Absolute Median Voter

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    Biden just took the lead in WI.

    1yipso5csc16.png

    Gonna say, fuck that 1.5%.

    Anyone who didn't pick a side here, are so fucking self absorbed ("Well, neither side alpealed to ME!"). Fuck off. You're not deplorable, you're contemptable.

    Same with that Governor who wrote in Reagan. Eat shit. If it's enough you can't vote for Trump, then not voting for Biden makes you a pathetic coward.

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  • MatevMatev Cero Miedo Registered User regular
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Why do we have to do all the work of rehabbing our neighbors?

    To win?

    how do you rehab someone with their beliefs?

    the nature of their beliefs precludes it

    To add onto this, a person has to want to change to open to being “rehabbed” and I guarantee most of the people that made their choice thought it was the good and right one and that they don’t need to change anything.

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  • AntinumericAntinumeric Registered User regular

    "for reasons he can't explain" = no time to explain quantum chronodynamics

    In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any phony god’s blessing. But because, I am enlightened by my intelligence.
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  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    lead taken in NV too. long way to go there of course

    4rcakzi52bon.png

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  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    Obama won twice and never once shit on republican voters or put them in any specific derogatory category (even if they deserved it!)

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    And what is PA, NC and GA looking like?
    Pennsylvania isn't going to report until tomorrow morning. Philly is still counting, Allegheny will reconvene at 10 est.

    monikerjmcdonald
  • HachfaceHachface Not the Minister Farrakhan you're thinking of Registered User regular
    Ordinary, politically unengaged people tend to have completely incoherent political ideas. You really need to try and persuade everyone. You never know what'll stick with people.

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Blight on Discourse Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I think Biden still has a good chance but this is hardly a rebuke of trumpism.

    Deliberately shrinking that big tent and setting aside 35%+ of the country as evil racists is not the winning strategy we imagined.

    I mean, they ARE evil racists. I don't get your point. We weren't appealing enough to fascists?

    I would contend that a different approach would be more effective in actually gaining power and winning elections.

    This is not the same as me agreeing with idiot racists.

    We sure feel good calling ignorant racists, ignorant racists but it sure feels bad to lose the country to them twice in a row.

    So yeah, we didn't do enough to bring people into the big tent and here we are.

    The damming evidence is Trump increasing his pop vote. You think that is because he's so appealing in message and personality?

    People get shouted down here for saying we need to actively try to move the idiot "all lives matter" racists or that you could have any dialog with family members in this category (I personally was told to cut ties with my dad) but all that does is LITERALLY solidify those people in opposition.

    I want to stress that I think this SUCKS and that I am on the side of virtually everyone here. All I am saying as an outsider is that the clear "good vs bad" lines that are drawn today are counterproductive.

    Have you managed to convince your dad?

    I have, actually. He was a lifelong Republican until 2008 and his politics are basically socialist now.

    But I don't think this is the same as trying to appeal to that 35% that have a hard-on for genocide. Some people are in fact just bad. There are limits to who you're going to be able to deprogram.

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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Heh. Apparently the reason Green Bay is so slow to return its results is because a vote counting machine... ran out of ink. So they’ve had to run off to get more.


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  • DexterBelgiumDexterBelgium Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Obama won twice and never once shit on republican voters or put them in any specific derogatory category (even if they deserved it!)
    And he united the country and got a huge mandate in the first midterm following it to unite the country further, right?

    DexterBelgium on
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  • LuvTheMonkeyLuvTheMonkey High Sierra Serenade Registered User regular
    For those wondering why AZ is not 100% done yet everywhere

    h0w0jmbqhgs9.png

    Lead is 105,000 votes.

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  • autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    Bernie is just a very, very smart man

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Obama won twice and never once shit on republican voters or put them in any specific derogatory category (even if they deserved it!)

    If this election, and the last one, has taught us anything it’s that raw charisma counts. People like Joe Biden, but seemingly he lacked some element of pizazz which seems to be critical with some demographics. Obama had it, and sadly, Trump also has it at his rallies. Not anywhere else, but there he has it.

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Blight on Discourse Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I think Biden still has a good chance but this is hardly a rebuke of trumpism.

    Deliberately shrinking that big tent and setting aside 35%+ of the country as evil racists is not the winning strategy we imagined.

    It's weird to me that anybody would draw this conclusion when Biden was almost exclusively campaigning towards the center and soft right. I don't want to be in a tent with Nazis and Nazi sympathizers. That tent's too big!

    You're calling them Nazi's in this very post!
    They gonna vote for the public option on healthcare after that? Tough call.

    Because they are.

    And they aren't people that were ever voting for the Democratic Party, at least not post-Southern Strategy. We don't need fascists to win. We outnumber tf out of them. We do need to stop pivoting further and further right for diminishing returns and attacking our left flank though. It's staggering how similar this moment is to the end of the Weimar Republic.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Bernie is just a very, very smart man

    While he is, this wasn't a real reach.

    Given the upswing in mail ins as a result of the pandemic, Trump's dismissal of mail in, and it not being a blowout either way, this was literally the most predictable outcome for election night.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I think Biden still has a good chance but this is hardly a rebuke of trumpism.

    Deliberately shrinking that big tent and setting aside 35%+ of the country as evil racists is not the winning strategy we imagined.

    It's weird to me that anybody would draw this conclusion when Biden was almost exclusively campaigning towards the center and soft right. I don't want to be in a tent with Nazis and Nazi sympathizers. That tent's too big!

    You're calling them Nazi's in this very post!
    They gonna vote for the public option on healthcare after that? Tough call.

    Because they are.

    And they aren't people that were ever voting for the Democratic Party, at least not post-Southern Strategy. We don't need fascists to win. We outnumber tf out of them. We do need to stop pivoting further and further right for diminishing returns and attacking our left flank though. It's staggering how similar this moment is to the end of the Weimar Republic.

    The confusing thing for me here is that it really did seem Biden was saying the right things and presenting the right statements for all wings of the party. He wasn’t calling people irredeemable monsters, nor did he have surrogates doing that, but, he also presented a steadily more and more progressive policy platform which seemed to resonate with voters.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Update! Green Bay’s clerk has returned with ink! (Also sounds like pretty much all the vote counting machines ran out of ink, not just one)


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  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    If you think you are suffering, imagine seeing Trump, the man who has replaced your entire personality and gathered all your hopes, outperforming like this and now powerlessly watching bad voting totals trickle in.

    Republican congresspeople that refused to chant "No more counting" are NOT going to have an enjoyable time if Trump loses.

    We are all as God made us and frequently much worse
  • LuvTheMonkeyLuvTheMonkey High Sierra Serenade Registered User regular
    Nevada has a drop of 80k votes from Clark county coming. Dem lead is 23k right now.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Michigan deficit is down to 75k with tons of Detroit left to count.

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  • Lord_AsmodeusLord_Asmodeus goeticSobriquet: Here is your magical cryptic riddle-tumour: I AM A TIME MACHINERegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I think Biden still has a good chance but this is hardly a rebuke of trumpism.

    Deliberately shrinking that big tent and setting aside 35%+ of the country as evil racists is not the winning strategy we imagined.

    It's weird to me that anybody would draw this conclusion when Biden was almost exclusively campaigning towards the center and soft right. I don't want to be in a tent with Nazis and Nazi sympathizers. That tent's too big!

    You're calling them Nazi's in this very post!
    They gonna vote for the public option on healthcare after that? Tough call.

    Because they are.

    And they aren't people that were ever voting for the Democratic Party, at least not post-Southern Strategy. We don't need fascists to win. We outnumber tf out of them. We do need to stop pivoting further and further right for diminishing returns and attacking our left flank though. It's staggering how similar this moment is to the end of the Weimar Republic.

    The confusing thing for me here is that it really did seem Biden was saying the right things and presenting the right statements for all wings of the party. He wasn’t calling people irredeemable monsters, nor did he have surrogates doing that, but, he also presented a steadily more and more progressive policy platform which seemed to resonate with voters.

    I mean, it did. The thing everyone should always keep in the back of their minds, at all times, while metagaming these election results and the final outcome is this: Biden has won the popular vote. He and his platform are more popular. More people voted for him, by a significant margin, than voted for the other guy. The problem isn't that Biden didn't campaign well or didn't appeal to voters. The problem is we have a centuries out of date electoral system which advantages some voters over others, and it just happens those places so advantaged tend to be more conservative.

    Lord_Asmodeus on
    Lord_Asmodeus.gifLord_Asmodeus2.gifz1i30sg.png
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  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Obama won twice and never once shit on republican voters or put them in any specific derogatory category (even if they deserved it!)

    Biden didn't do that either. What the candidate does and what the supporters do are not the same thing.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Like the mods say, let's wait until this election is over before we do the autopsy. It's definitely going to be one that's pored over for years to come.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Not for nothing, but the whole "stop the counting now, I've won" gambit will be severely undercut by the fact that he's going to be losing in 270 EVs worth of states before most people wake up to hear about it.

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  • JaysonFourJaysonFour Classy Monster Kitteh Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Michigan deficit is down to 75k with tons of Detroit left to count.

    Are these Dem strongholds we’re talking about in Detroit and GB? And we still have the absentee stuff in MI to go too?

    steam_sig.png
  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    Why do we have to do all the work of rehabbing our neighbors?

    Because the alternative is Trump.

    And that's not even the worst alternative.

    Imagine Trump, but competent.

    That's why we have to do the work of rehabbing our neighbors.

    I live in a red state. I know how exhausting it is and I know how cathartic it is to write them off as racist fascist homophobic bigoted useless fucking assholes.

    I get that. I've been there. I mean hell, I am there.

    That's why I know that while catharsis feels good it's worthless but more importantly it's useless.

    Every time someone goes off about the shit above on social media? My job gets harder. Your job too incidentally. Because our job is to convince the assholes that they're wrong and convince them of a better way.

    It's not easy, it's not fun, and almost without exception it doesn't involve dunking on fools.

    It's frustrating. And it's thankless.

    But it's our fucking duty as the ones who are right.

    Can't be done? Ok, then we're fucked. Might as well pack it up.

    The good news is it can be done. I've watched it be done here on these very forums.

    I'm not gonna call out specific names because that's kind of shitty but if you've been around long enough and you've been paying attention it's absolutely happened here (and frankly I dare a lot of you to go back and look at your posts from 10-15 years ago, it's entirely possible you're one of them. I know I am.)

    It's not fast. It's absolutely possible! ...but it's not fast.

    And it's not easy. And with social media it's only gotten harder.

    And frankly it's not even satisfying because by the time someone turns around the journey has generally been so long that you're probably just glad to not be fucking arguing with them anymore (though we might just do so out of habit).

    So getting back to the original question: Why do we have to do all the work of rehabbing our neighbors?

    Because who the fuck else is going to.

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