Forecasts for impact on Russia’s GDP are going to be super hard right now. There are a number of confidence-based collapses that you can’t easily turn around, i.e. the problem persists even if the cause disappears.
Capital flight, sovereign default, hyperinflation, bank runs, and ultimately currency collapse could all happen to an unrecoverable degree based on whether enough people think that enough other people think they will happen.
In monetary economics, we always studied how to prevent these things. Now I realize that we can weaponize them against our adversaries.
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webguy20I spend too much time on the InternetRegistered Userregular
Im watching this “expired MREs” thing the same way I was watching the “look at these beat up tank interiors” thing from yesterday. If it makes for good propaganda, cool. Go wild.
But, like, motherfuckers clearly just don’t know. I’ve seen some old ass MREs in the US Army. And some torn-up ass tank seats. It’s the Army, man.
Yea. The big thing with old MREs isn't the stuff in tins, it's all the accessory food and items. That shit can expire and go...weird if it sits too long. usually though its a decade+ the expiration date. They are engineered to take a beating and still be safe to eat.
Having fresh ones are preferable though. My coworker who is an ex Marine lamented when they removed the little tabasco bottles. Apparently they were one of the most valuable trade items out in the field.
Im watching this “expired MREs” thing the same way I was watching the “look at these beat up tank interiors” thing from yesterday. If it makes for good propaganda, cool. Go wild.
But, like, motherfuckers clearly just don’t know. I’ve seen some old ass MREs in the US Army. And some torn-up ass tank seats. It’s the Army, man.
Yea. The big thing with old MREs isn't the stuff in tins, it's all the accessory food and items. That shit can expire and go...weird if it sits too long. usually though its a decade+ the expiration date. They are engineered to take a beating and still be safe to eat.
Having fresh ones are preferable though. My coworker who is an ex Marine lamented when they removed the little tabasco bottles. Apparently they were one of the most valuable trade items out in the field.
In the only somewhat comparable modern invasion the US went into Iraq with a bigger army that was better equipped and completely ready to fight anything they faced with at least a clear mission (during the invasion anyway). Against a country that, even their military, didn't really want to fight and had already been wrecked. Where the US had absolute air superiority.
Russia invaded Ukraine with a military that not only didn't want to fight, mostly didn't know they were going to fight. Against a military and populace that is angry and largely ready to fight, and equipped with the best weapons in the world designed around stopping this particular invasion. And seemingly still somehow don't have air superiority which is absolutely bonkers.
I don't expect Ukraine to win, but I honestly at this point wouldn't be surprised to see Russia order a retreat and try to sue for peace parked on a small chunk of Ukraine territory.
In the only somewhat comparable modern invasion the US went into Iraq with a bigger army that was better equipped and completely ready to fight anything they faced with at least a clear mission (during the invasion anyway). Against a country that, even their military, didn't really want to fight and had already been wrecked. Where the US had absolute air superiority.
Russia invaded Ukraine with a military that not only didn't want to fight, mostly didn't know they were going to fight. Against a military and populace that is angry and largely ready to fight, and equipped with the best weapons in the world designed around stopping this particular invasion. And seemingly still somehow don't have air superiority which is absolutely bonkers.
I don't expect Ukraine to win, but I honestly at this point wouldn't be surprised to see Russia order a retreat and try to sue for peace parked on a small chunk of Ukraine territory.
This is kind of what I am expecting. An ugly and vicious conventional war that costs Russia more men and time to win then they expect. Followed by an insurgency that makes Iraq and Afghanistan look like a family picnic in the park.
Russia is unlikely to retreat unless they completely lose the air war. Until then, they'll just continually escalate their artillery and bombing of the cities until either Ukraine is unable to prosecute conventional war, or they run out of munitions (I would have laughed at that idea a week ago, now I'm conceding it could be a reality).
If Russia retreats, Putin is most likely quite literally dead. That means they are in this for the long haul.
The question is what a 'win' for Russia even looks like; I mean even assuming they capture/kill the current UKR political leadership and occupy most/all of the cities, they're going to be faced with a serious insurgency that they lack the manpower (and maybe will, at least among the actual troops) to suppress. Meanwhile their domestic economic situation will get increasingly dire.
As long as Ukraine don't outright capitulate there doesn't seem to be much of a way they 'lose,' though it will involve a lot of suffering for the people there obviously
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
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TTODewbackPuts the drawl in ya'llI think I'm in HellRegistered Userregular
In the only somewhat comparable modern invasion the US went into Iraq with a bigger army that was better equipped and completely ready to fight anything they faced with at least a clear mission (during the invasion anyway). Against a country that, even their military, didn't really want to fight and had already been wrecked. Where the US had absolute air superiority.
Russia invaded Ukraine with a military that not only didn't want to fight, mostly didn't know they were going to fight. Against a military and populace that is angry and largely ready to fight, and equipped with the best weapons in the world designed around stopping this particular invasion. And seemingly still somehow don't have air superiority which is absolutely bonkers.
I don't expect Ukraine to win, but I honestly at this point wouldn't be surprised to see Russia order a retreat and try to sue for peace parked on a small chunk of Ukraine territory.
This is kind of what I am expecting. An ugly and vicious conventional war that costs Russia more men and time to win then they expect. Followed by an insurgency that makes Iraq and Afghanistan look like a family picnic in the park.
im not sure anything can get worse than their experience in Afghanistan (Russias not Americas)
Alright, I guess I'm not going to get any work done until I get this out of my brain, so here it is, a goddamn seperate post about why Russia's invasion strategy is completely bananas:
If you'd asked me at the outset of the war whether Ukraine had a snowman's chance in hell of winning, I would have said "no". But that's because I would have expected Putin to approach things as he has until now, slicing off parts of the country piece by piece, seeing how much he can get away with and then pushing it further. I knew that he had troops stationed pretty much along all of the border crossings including Belarus, but I figured most of them were just a bluff in order to force Ukraine to spread their forces out and overextend themselves.
What I expected:
Russian forces move in over land from the East into the "Independent" areas of Donetsk, Luhanks and Mariupol, and into Crimea from the South
The territory is taken quickly, and as with Crimea they hold a fake election where surprise surprise, the people overwhelmingly vote to become part of Russia
Putin takes a look at the international response, and if he thinks he can get away with it, gobbles up more of the country, basically stopping at Kharkiv and cutting the country in half
Thus Putin has a route to his new warm-water port, and "plausible" deniability that no really, this is what the people who live there actually wanted, look, they did a vote and everything! The international community all know that this is bullshit, but nobody cares enough to start a war so Putin gets away with it again.
I honestly believe this plan could have worked; Ukraine (wisely) don't seem to have made any effort to defend the "seperatist" regions which were basically already lost, and if the Russians had thrown everything they had in that one spot, I believe it would have been taken by now.
What actually happened:
Russian forces launch an all-out attack from every direction at once, stretching their forces as thinly as they possibly can
They fire some token missile and airstrikes at military targets, but don't commit to a full on shock-and-awe campaign
They drop unsupported paratroopers into Kiev itself to take an airport, which are quickly overrun up because that's what happens to unsupported paratroopers in enemy territory
They have some success in the South and East where Ukraine wasn't really trying to put up a fight anyway, but the forces headed to Kiev are repelled
They attempt to drop MORE unsupported paratroopers into Kiev, this time Ukraine's air defences are alert and expecting them, and they don't even get to leave their planes
Instead of cutting their losses in the North and focussing on the South and East where they actually seem to be making some progress, they double-down on trying to take Kiev, which has already proven to be a hard target
And so here we are, with a massive queue of armored vehicles lining up single-file on the road to Kiev waiting to get blown up one by one, in such a way that really you only have to blow up a few at the front and they'll block the whole convoy. They might be able to take Kiev eventually from sheer attrition, but as a history buff and armchair general, this does not look like the strategy of somebody militarily competent. Probably because the orders are coming directly from Putin rather than letting the generals make plans for themselves; because having your generals be independent and able to make plans on their own is bad if you're a dictator.
Mr Ray on
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
Also while he mentioned moving more forces in, was he accounting for all the armaments that people are sending into Ukraine? He mentioned hundreds of combat helicopters sitting unused. How do combat helicopters typically do against MANPADS? (I am actually wondering if there is any historical data on this, not just being sarcastic).
Pretty effective. They were used extensively against the Russians in Afghanistan and against the Americans, also in Afghanistan. They aren’t perfect and experienced pilots can avoid them. Flares sometimes work. Sometimes don’t. Russia has about 1800 helicopters. And near as I can tell there are tens of thousands of Surface to Air Missiles in Ukraine.
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
Also while he mentioned moving more forces in, was he accounting for all the armaments that people are sending into Ukraine? He mentioned hundreds of combat helicopters sitting unused. How do combat helicopters typically do against MANPADS? (I am actually wondering if there is any historical data on this, not just being sarcastic).
His read seems mostly good. I'm not a Russian military expert and more armchair guy so I'll agree his is probably right, but Russias initial blunders make it an uphill battle out of humiliation even if they do manage to crush Ukraine now.
MANPADs are effective, just like man portable antitank weapons against random targets that aren't prepared. Against a proper coordinated and supported advance or formation, firing one is near suicidal even if you are lucky enough to hit your target.
Also wasn't Putin's approval with the Russian people in the shitter more so than usual because of his Covid response? So it's not like things have to sink for for this to go super south for Putin.
There has been a string of TikTok videos over the last few days of Ukrainian civilians stealing Russian armored vehicles and just driving off with them. The first rule of warfare is "Don't arm your enemy." It's fucking amature hour out there.
In this case, if given the option between "guard the vehicle that is not yours from the very angry people" and "guard mr. vehicle", mr. vehicle is probably going walkies, because Spc. Jenkinovich is apparently very young, very unhappy about life at the moment, and very definitely not paid enough for this shit, and Spc. Jenkinovich has seen absolutely nothing, sir.
I'm imagining this in a sarcastic drill instructor voice.
Now tell us one about Mr. Grenade!
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That_GuyI don't wanna be that guyRegistered Userregular
I could honestly see this war ending with a coup against Putin.
AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
Reminds me of another European dictator who distracted his generals from attacking key targets to focus on one city as a symbol of their power and that their invasion was going well.
I could honestly see this war ending with a coup against Putin.
It's definitely up there in the odds.
Nobody really knows his inner circle dynamics, but there is a lot of pressure on it to make Putin go away, blame everything on that madman, and we all pretend this never really happened.
I could honestly see this war ending with a coup against Putin.
It certainly feels like the most probable way to get to a resolution soon. Even a successful Russia is signing up for the mother of all quagmires in a long occupation.
I could honestly see this war ending with a coup against Putin.
It's definitely up there in the odds.
Nobody really knows his inner circle dynamics, but there is a lot of pressure on it to make Putin go away, blame everything on that madman, and we all pretend this never really happened.
But on the other hand, shit REALLY goes tits up if there's an attempt to oust him and it fails.
The question is what a 'win' for Russia even looks like; I mean even assuming they capture/kill the current UKR political leadership and occupy most/all of the cities, they're going to be faced with a serious insurgency that they lack the manpower (and maybe will, at least among the actual troops) to suppress. Meanwhile their domestic economic situation will get increasingly dire.
As long as Ukraine don't outright capitulate there doesn't seem to be much of a way they 'lose,' though it will involve a lot of suffering for the people there obviously
I suspect Moscow might still be in denial about the scale of the civilian mobilization and what that might imply for the Russian experience should they break the Ukrainian army proper. I'm drawing a blank on the last war in my lifetime where television news gave pointers on where to aim your Molotovs when throwing them at specific vehicles.
Now, Putin being Putin, he might just think that insurgencies aren't a problem if you don't care about how many people you kill, but I don't think he's gotten a chance to try putting that one into practice since he reconquered Chechnya.
Now, Putin being Putin, he might just think that insurgencies aren't a problem if you don't care about how many people you kill, but I don't think he's gotten a chance to try putting that one into practice since he reconquered Chechnya.
Problem might be that there's 50x as many Ukrainians as Chechens, and they're getting openly supplied by NATO ...
In the only somewhat comparable modern invasion the US went into Iraq with a bigger army that was better equipped and completely ready to fight anything they faced with at least a clear mission (during the invasion anyway). Against a country that, even their military, didn't really want to fight and had already been wrecked. Where the US had absolute air superiority.
Russia invaded Ukraine with a military that not only didn't want to fight, mostly didn't know they were going to fight. Against a military and populace that is angry and largely ready to fight, and equipped with the best weapons in the world designed around stopping this particular invasion. And seemingly still somehow don't have air superiority which is absolutely bonkers.
I don't expect Ukraine to win, but I honestly at this point wouldn't be surprised to see Russia order a retreat and try to sue for peace parked on a small chunk of Ukraine territory.
This is kind of what I am expecting. An ugly and vicious conventional war that costs Russia more men and time to win then they expect. Followed by an insurgency that makes Iraq and Afghanistan look like a family picnic in the park.
im not sure anything can get worse than their experience in Afghanistan (Russias not Americas)
I think this is worse than Afghanistan for Russia.
Afghanistan didn't have 8 years to prep for Russian invasion (IIRC, if somebody remembers the history better than I do please correct me). Afghanistan wasn't being fed supplies by pretty much all of Europe and the US. With shorter supply lines and delivery times. And larger amounts that could be delivered. And Ukraine has probably been getting subtly supplied ever since 2014.
Ukraine has more people (6 million or so more) over 20,000 less square miles. And is probably more unified than Afghanistan has ever been.
Read a great article speculating as to why the Russians still have not established air superiority and why they haven't used the bulk of their air force yet
A possible explanation is that the Russians might have used too much of their guided munitions in Syria, so most of the planes only have unguided munitions available. Which means using them will definitely cause a lot of civilian casualties.
Another one is that the Russians might fear flying while their own SAMs are active because it's trivially easy to shoot down your own jets when everyone is flying the same aircraft and also your crews are poorly trained teenagers. So instead of the air force pounding the Ukrainian Army into submission before the ground troops even come into contact with them (that would be the US playbook), they are being kept in reserve.
So what are a few hundred planes with unguided bombs good for? Basically levelling cities and that's it.
Russia spent a lot of time pushing the angle that Ukrainians are just regular ole Russians and the UK government were a bunch of nazis holding them hostage. Now the average Russian soldier is getting molotovs tossed at them by furious civilians and almost the entirety of NATO are shipping in weapons and equipment for those furious civilians to use.
If you're an 18 year old frontovik something here isn't gonna be squaring up.
Much as I’m rooting for Ukraine, I still expect Putin to achieve what I think to be his objectives within a week or maybe two and then withdraw.
My read on his objectives being a ceasefire that provides some kind of status for Donetsk and Luhansk and ceding Crimea to Russia.
His objective was topping the Ukrainian government and putting a puppet government in there that makes Belarus look like Poland.
If he settles on Donetsk and Luhansk (still have to check spelling) having some semi-independent status and eventually voting for an unrecognized 'independence' and annexation while holding Crimea - thats basically status quo without the invasion.
It's a good 'retreat and declare victory' that might end this war but it is a hell of a loss and embarrassment- a downright national humiliation - for Russia. And wont make back the x trillion rubles they lost in the past week.
It baffles me that Russia is going to attempt to keep markets closed until March 5. What a magical date. It's only going to cause capital to flee that much harder, and I suspect, tons of future sale positions are being set to pull nearly all major foreign investment out of the country entirely.
It'll be a question of if there is enough value to cover all these sales.
A lot of Russian companies will go bankrupt and be unable to operate. With Gazprom losing both BP and Shell partnership investments... It really won't matter.
If Russia takes Ukraine, it feels like they won't even have the funds to develop Ukraine's resources without HUGE concessions. China could buy them all up and develop them, but only if Russia makes huge concessions to not tax these companies to oblivion to cover the crippling of their economy.
I simply don't see a way out of this economically for Russia that doesn't turn them into a new North Korea.
Much as I’m rooting for Ukraine, I still expect Putin to achieve what I think to be his objectives within a week or maybe two and then withdraw.
My read on his objectives being a ceasefire that provides some kind of status for Donetsk and Luhansk and ceding Crimea to Russia.
Like Mr Ray above I feel like that the bolded is a workable goal that Russia could have gotten away with.
If one of Putin's objectives is capture Kyiv, that could take longer than a week or two. 3 Million people. Probably 6 figures of which are heavily armed. Heavy bombing won't get them all. And urban combat, known militarily as the suckiest of all combat.
I wonder how much a bunch of signs saying "Russians go home we don't want to <implied doom>" would work. Just "We are not bogeymen but get the fuck out" basically. Seems like the invaders are young enough to be swayed be that sort of thing.
Much as I’m rooting for Ukraine, I still expect Putin to achieve what I think to be his objectives within a week or maybe two and then withdraw.
My read on his objectives being a ceasefire that provides some kind of status for Donetsk and Luhansk and ceding Crimea to Russia.
Russia can't withdraw though. Ukraine has already kicked out a Russian puppet leader. The populace is completely mobilized against them. Any gains Russia makes evaporate five minutes after troops leave. Putin has to completely break Ukraine, or fail. There's no gracefully bowing out of this for Russia.
Considering all the videos of functioning, fuelled vehicles abandoned in the road, I suspect at least some of the teenaged conscripts are taking it seriously. And good for them, because fuck dying for Putin.
I know that it would be terribly naive Pollyannaism to suggest it seriously, but I would sure like it if one outcome of this episode was to see a post-Putin world do some more serious work on dismantling the two truly human-experiment-ending stockpiles of strategic nuclear weapons.
I know we will never put the horrifying genie of atomic weaponry back in the bottle, but the idea that my child might one day sleep free of the worry that civilization might be ground to a halt over a couple years of keen suffering for the survivors of the initial battle …I want that. Even if I don’t ever get it, I want it for her.
Much as I’m rooting for Ukraine, I still expect Putin to achieve what I think to be his objectives within a week or maybe two and then withdraw.
My read on his objectives being a ceasefire that provides some kind of status for Donetsk and Luhansk and ceding Crimea to Russia.
Like Mr Ray above I feel like that the bolded is a workable goal that Russia could have gotten away with.
If one of Putin's objectives is capture Kyiv, that could take longer than a week or two. 3 Million people. Probably 6 figures of which are heavily armed. Heavy bombing won't get them all. And urban combat, known militarily as the suckiest of all combat.
If they committed to sweeping into Kyiv following a shock and awe phase with actual ground forces off the bat, it might have worked. Kyiv is only a couple hours drive from the border, and could legitimately have had tanks in the street by last Thursday morning.
Especially if taking everything east of the Deniper and leaving the rest...for now...was the wars objective.
Instead it looks like they thought they could cheaply take the airports, fly in a few planes of soldiers, and it would fall with no real effort.
I'm more and more thinking their readiness is so piss poor they can't even put planes in the air with real reliable munitions.
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
Also while he mentioned moving more forces in, was he accounting for all the armaments that people are sending into Ukraine? He mentioned hundreds of combat helicopters sitting unused. How do combat helicopters typically do against MANPADS? (I am actually wondering if there is any historical data on this, not just being sarcastic).
Afgahnistan (for the USSRs experience) would suggest badly. Ukraine is presumably receiving a lot of MANPADs, if only because you bet that the Pentagon would like to know how Russian helicopters and airpower fair against modern anti-air weaponry.
Things like the Russians flying a lot of helicopters over Kiev seem unlikely to be repeated at this point, given that the Ukranians are now getting widely setup to turn every multi-storey building into a potential missile and anti-tank launch site.
EDIT: I mean consider that the US loses Black Hawks every now and against Middle Eastern rebels with Cold War era RPGs. Helicopters are incredibly slow versus everything, their whole role and benefit is hovering i.e. remaining stationary against supersonic munitions.
I do wonder if Putin seriously thought this would be Crimea 2.0. There were more dumbasses that apparently craved being ruled by the fucker there, more people less inclined to fight it, wasn't able to do it as a surprise attack and got a mild response from the West. Honestly, I'm not sure what the fucker was taking to make him think things would play out the same. Ukraine had nearly a decade to prepare for the the next round of this shit and before he attacked it was made pretty damn clear that there would be no element of surprise for the Russians. Also since they absorbed the more Putin friendly areas, they really should have expected harsher resistance.
Honestly, I have to wonder how many of us are mystified by Russia's approach here. I think most of us assumed their plan was to take the areas already under puppet control and secure a land route to Crimea. At this point, it's pretty clear that one the goals was depose the legitimate Ukrainian government and replace it with a puppet. Clearly at least Putin and possibly his highest advisors were high on their own supply because given how things went for the last puppet, it wasn't going to fucking work. Russia can't meet it's war goals because they are unrealistic.
Hell, the US couldn't even install a friendly government in Afghanistan, that could stand on it's own and people fucking hated the Taliban government. Being next door doesn't offset that and the US actually retained it's ability to project force after the cold war unlike Russia. Taliban also didn't get the benefit of massive international aid, much of which is next door no less, nor did their military prowess come anyone near the US. Ukraine on the other hand has a government it's people respect, friends next door and a comparable military to Russia, at least on the tech front. Like anyone not getting high off their own bullshit would have realized that taking Kiev and killing the Ukrainian government's leaders, will not save you from being bled fucking dry by the resulting bloody occupation.
I suspect at this rate, Putin might just get the Russian military crippled for decades on trying to take Kiev, which he may or may not succeed at because of his fucking ego. If he does that, no fucking way Russia stays there for very long. The US could get away with two long ass occupations because the losses it took were never enough to be an issue. If he damn nears breaks the Russian army just taking Kiev, there is no real way for them to effectively occupied much and then it's only a matter of time for the Ukrainian army to organize and supply enough to roll what's left of the Russian army.
Putin has way too much of ego to back down at this point and that would be the smart thing to do because pretty soon he likely is going to be dealing with a shit ton of internal issues.
Interestingly, while I know NATO is heavily involved, it’s EU and Europe in general that are spearheading the pushback against Russia. Even non interventionist countries like Switzerland are getting in on it. This was possibly not in Putin’s plans at all.
Also a good chunk of Crimea was also a very large Russian naval base and a surrounding community of their families, workers, and hanger-ons. It would be like going to Newport News and being surprised people supported the USN.
Especially when anyone who wasn't a known Russian sympathizer was driven out of the region and often at gunpoint while their homes and property were looted.
Much as I’m rooting for Ukraine, I still expect Putin to achieve what I think to be his objectives within a week or maybe two and then withdraw.
My read on his objectives being a ceasefire that provides some kind of status for Donetsk and Luhansk and ceding Crimea to Russia.
His objective was topping the Ukrainian government and putting a puppet government in there that makes Belarus look like Poland.
If he settles on Donetsk and Luhansk (still have to check spelling) having some semi-independent status and eventually voting for an unrecognized 'independence' and annexation while holding Crimea - thats basically status quo without the invasion.
It's a good 'retreat and declare victory' that might end this war but it is a hell of a loss and embarrassment- a downright national humiliation - for Russia. And wont make back the x trillion rubles they lost in the past week.
While your analysis is reasonable, I still disagree. I think getting:
1. De jure in addition to de facto control of Crimea.
2. Ongoing Ukrainian territorial disputes that will keep it out of NATO and the EU.
3. And an opportunity to show other countries that Russia can and will invade you, and annex some of your territory, regardless of western sanctions.
is the entirety of what Putin is trying to achieve. So if he does, and if (if!) he can survive the sanctions, he will have achieved victory in the sense of accomplishing his strategic objectives.
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
Also while he mentioned moving more forces in, was he accounting for all the armaments that people are sending into Ukraine? He mentioned hundreds of combat helicopters sitting unused. How do combat helicopters typically do against MANPADS? (I am actually wondering if there is any historical data on this, not just being sarcastic).
Afgahnistan (for the USSRs experience) would suggest badly. Ukraine is presumably receiving a lot of MANPADs, if only because you bet that the Pentagon would like to know how Russian helicopters and airpower fair against modern anti-air weaponry.
Things like the Russians flying a lot of helicopters over Kiev seem unlikely to be repeated at this point, given that the Ukranians are now getting widely setup to turn every multi-storey building into a potential missile and anti-tank launch site.
EDIT: I mean consider that the US loses Black Hawks every now and against Middle Eastern rebels with Cold War era RPGs. Helicopters are incredibly slow versus everything, their whole role and benefit is hovering i.e. remaining stationary against supersonic munitions.
Also the US has lost how many helicopters to RPG-7s? A basic dumbfire rocket that's not even that fast.
A Stinger is so much more deadly to a helicopter flying low and slow or hovering and deploying troops than an RPG it's not even funny.
Also we sent maybe a thousand stingers to Afghanistan that were far less capable than modern MANPADS. I dunno how many for sure or how many we sent to Ukraine, but I bet Ukraine had more than the Mujahedeen ever did.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
is the entirety of what Putin is trying to achieve. So if he does, and if (if!) he can survive the sanctions, he will have achieved victory in the sense of accomplishing his strategic objectives.
Russia cannot survive the sanctions, so whether Putin can seems rather academic.
Either the West lifts the sanctions or Russia collapses, and I do not expect the West to lift the sanctions if Ukraine falls.
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Capital flight, sovereign default, hyperinflation, bank runs, and ultimately currency collapse could all happen to an unrecoverable degree based on whether enough people think that enough other people think they will happen.
In monetary economics, we always studied how to prevent these things. Now I realize that we can weaponize them against our adversaries.
Yea. The big thing with old MREs isn't the stuff in tins, it's all the accessory food and items. That shit can expire and go...weird if it sits too long. usually though its a decade+ the expiration date. They are engineered to take a beating and still be safe to eat.
Having fresh ones are preferable though. My coworker who is an ex Marine lamented when they removed the little tabasco bottles. Apparently they were one of the most valuable trade items out in the field.
Origin ID: Discgolfer27
Untappd ID: Discgolfer1981
The Spice must flow.
Russia invaded Ukraine with a military that not only didn't want to fight, mostly didn't know they were going to fight. Against a military and populace that is angry and largely ready to fight, and equipped with the best weapons in the world designed around stopping this particular invasion. And seemingly still somehow don't have air superiority which is absolutely bonkers.
I don't expect Ukraine to win, but I honestly at this point wouldn't be surprised to see Russia order a retreat and try to sue for peace parked on a small chunk of Ukraine territory.
This is kind of what I am expecting. An ugly and vicious conventional war that costs Russia more men and time to win then they expect. Followed by an insurgency that makes Iraq and Afghanistan look like a family picnic in the park.
If Russia retreats, Putin is most likely quite literally dead. That means they are in this for the long haul.
As long as Ukraine don't outright capitulate there doesn't seem to be much of a way they 'lose,' though it will involve a lot of suffering for the people there obviously
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
im not sure anything can get worse than their experience in Afghanistan (Russias not Americas)
If you'd asked me at the outset of the war whether Ukraine had a snowman's chance in hell of winning, I would have said "no". But that's because I would have expected Putin to approach things as he has until now, slicing off parts of the country piece by piece, seeing how much he can get away with and then pushing it further. I knew that he had troops stationed pretty much along all of the border crossings including Belarus, but I figured most of them were just a bluff in order to force Ukraine to spread their forces out and overextend themselves.
What I expected:
Thus Putin has a route to his new warm-water port, and "plausible" deniability that no really, this is what the people who live there actually wanted, look, they did a vote and everything! The international community all know that this is bullshit, but nobody cares enough to start a war so Putin gets away with it again.
I honestly believe this plan could have worked; Ukraine (wisely) don't seem to have made any effort to defend the "seperatist" regions which were basically already lost, and if the Russians had thrown everything they had in that one spot, I believe it would have been taken by now.
What actually happened:
And so here we are, with a massive queue of armored vehicles lining up single-file on the road to Kiev waiting to get blown up one by one, in such a way that really you only have to blow up a few at the front and they'll block the whole convoy. They might be able to take Kiev eventually from sheer attrition, but as a history buff and armchair general, this does not look like the strategy of somebody militarily competent. Probably because the orders are coming directly from Putin rather than letting the generals make plans for themselves; because having your generals be independent and able to make plans on their own is bad if you're a dictator.
His read seems mostly good. I'm not a Russian military expert and more armchair guy so I'll agree his is probably right, but Russias initial blunders make it an uphill battle out of humiliation even if they do manage to crush Ukraine now.
MANPADs are effective, just like man portable antitank weapons against random targets that aren't prepared. Against a proper coordinated and supported advance or formation, firing one is near suicidal even if you are lucky enough to hit your target.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
I'm imagining this in a sarcastic drill instructor voice.
Now tell us one about Mr. Grenade!
It's definitely up there in the odds.
Nobody really knows his inner circle dynamics, but there is a lot of pressure on it to make Putin go away, blame everything on that madman, and we all pretend this never really happened.
It certainly feels like the most probable way to get to a resolution soon. Even a successful Russia is signing up for the mother of all quagmires in a long occupation.
But on the other hand, shit REALLY goes tits up if there's an attempt to oust him and it fails.
I suspect Moscow might still be in denial about the scale of the civilian mobilization and what that might imply for the Russian experience should they break the Ukrainian army proper. I'm drawing a blank on the last war in my lifetime where television news gave pointers on where to aim your Molotovs when throwing them at specific vehicles.
Now, Putin being Putin, he might just think that insurgencies aren't a problem if you don't care about how many people you kill, but I don't think he's gotten a chance to try putting that one into practice since he reconquered Chechnya.
My read on his objectives being a ceasefire that provides some kind of status for Donetsk and Luhansk and ceding Crimea to Russia.
Problem might be that there's 50x as many Ukrainians as Chechens, and they're getting openly supplied by NATO ...
I think this is worse than Afghanistan for Russia.
Afghanistan didn't have 8 years to prep for Russian invasion (IIRC, if somebody remembers the history better than I do please correct me). Afghanistan wasn't being fed supplies by pretty much all of Europe and the US. With shorter supply lines and delivery times. And larger amounts that could be delivered. And Ukraine has probably been getting subtly supplied ever since 2014.
Ukraine has more people (6 million or so more) over 20,000 less square miles. And is probably more unified than Afghanistan has ever been.
I don't know much about this source and it's probably some flavor of Western state funded media, but here it is: The Myserious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
A possible explanation is that the Russians might have used too much of their guided munitions in Syria, so most of the planes only have unguided munitions available. Which means using them will definitely cause a lot of civilian casualties.
Another one is that the Russians might fear flying while their own SAMs are active because it's trivially easy to shoot down your own jets when everyone is flying the same aircraft and also your crews are poorly trained teenagers. So instead of the air force pounding the Ukrainian Army into submission before the ground troops even come into contact with them (that would be the US playbook), they are being kept in reserve.
So what are a few hundred planes with unguided bombs good for? Basically levelling cities and that's it.
Russia spent a lot of time pushing the angle that Ukrainians are just regular ole Russians and the UK government were a bunch of nazis holding them hostage. Now the average Russian soldier is getting molotovs tossed at them by furious civilians and almost the entirety of NATO are shipping in weapons and equipment for those furious civilians to use.
If you're an 18 year old frontovik something here isn't gonna be squaring up.
His objective was topping the Ukrainian government and putting a puppet government in there that makes Belarus look like Poland.
If he settles on Donetsk and Luhansk (still have to check spelling) having some semi-independent status and eventually voting for an unrecognized 'independence' and annexation while holding Crimea - thats basically status quo without the invasion.
It's a good 'retreat and declare victory' that might end this war but it is a hell of a loss and embarrassment- a downright national humiliation - for Russia. And wont make back the x trillion rubles they lost in the past week.
It'll be a question of if there is enough value to cover all these sales.
A lot of Russian companies will go bankrupt and be unable to operate. With Gazprom losing both BP and Shell partnership investments... It really won't matter.
If Russia takes Ukraine, it feels like they won't even have the funds to develop Ukraine's resources without HUGE concessions. China could buy them all up and develop them, but only if Russia makes huge concessions to not tax these companies to oblivion to cover the crippling of their economy.
I simply don't see a way out of this economically for Russia that doesn't turn them into a new North Korea.
3DSFF: 5026-4429-6577
Like Mr Ray above I feel like that the bolded is a workable goal that Russia could have gotten away with.
If one of Putin's objectives is capture Kyiv, that could take longer than a week or two. 3 Million people. Probably 6 figures of which are heavily armed. Heavy bombing won't get them all. And urban combat, known militarily as the suckiest of all combat.
Russia can't withdraw though. Ukraine has already kicked out a Russian puppet leader. The populace is completely mobilized against them. Any gains Russia makes evaporate five minutes after troops leave. Putin has to completely break Ukraine, or fail. There's no gracefully bowing out of this for Russia.
I know we will never put the horrifying genie of atomic weaponry back in the bottle, but the idea that my child might one day sleep free of the worry that civilization might be ground to a halt over a couple years of keen suffering for the survivors of the initial battle …I want that. Even if I don’t ever get it, I want it for her.
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If they committed to sweeping into Kyiv following a shock and awe phase with actual ground forces off the bat, it might have worked. Kyiv is only a couple hours drive from the border, and could legitimately have had tanks in the street by last Thursday morning.
Especially if taking everything east of the Deniper and leaving the rest...for now...was the wars objective.
Instead it looks like they thought they could cheaply take the airports, fly in a few planes of soldiers, and it would fall with no real effort.
I'm more and more thinking their readiness is so piss poor they can't even put planes in the air with real reliable munitions.
Afgahnistan (for the USSRs experience) would suggest badly. Ukraine is presumably receiving a lot of MANPADs, if only because you bet that the Pentagon would like to know how Russian helicopters and airpower fair against modern anti-air weaponry.
Things like the Russians flying a lot of helicopters over Kiev seem unlikely to be repeated at this point, given that the Ukranians are now getting widely setup to turn every multi-storey building into a potential missile and anti-tank launch site.
EDIT: I mean consider that the US loses Black Hawks every now and against Middle Eastern rebels with Cold War era RPGs. Helicopters are incredibly slow versus everything, their whole role and benefit is hovering i.e. remaining stationary against supersonic munitions.
Honestly, I have to wonder how many of us are mystified by Russia's approach here. I think most of us assumed their plan was to take the areas already under puppet control and secure a land route to Crimea. At this point, it's pretty clear that one the goals was depose the legitimate Ukrainian government and replace it with a puppet. Clearly at least Putin and possibly his highest advisors were high on their own supply because given how things went for the last puppet, it wasn't going to fucking work. Russia can't meet it's war goals because they are unrealistic.
Hell, the US couldn't even install a friendly government in Afghanistan, that could stand on it's own and people fucking hated the Taliban government. Being next door doesn't offset that and the US actually retained it's ability to project force after the cold war unlike Russia. Taliban also didn't get the benefit of massive international aid, much of which is next door no less, nor did their military prowess come anyone near the US. Ukraine on the other hand has a government it's people respect, friends next door and a comparable military to Russia, at least on the tech front. Like anyone not getting high off their own bullshit would have realized that taking Kiev and killing the Ukrainian government's leaders, will not save you from being bled fucking dry by the resulting bloody occupation.
I suspect at this rate, Putin might just get the Russian military crippled for decades on trying to take Kiev, which he may or may not succeed at because of his fucking ego. If he does that, no fucking way Russia stays there for very long. The US could get away with two long ass occupations because the losses it took were never enough to be an issue. If he damn nears breaks the Russian army just taking Kiev, there is no real way for them to effectively occupied much and then it's only a matter of time for the Ukrainian army to organize and supply enough to roll what's left of the Russian army.
Putin has way too much of ego to back down at this point and that would be the smart thing to do because pretty soon he likely is going to be dealing with a shit ton of internal issues.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
WoW
Dear Satan.....
Especially when anyone who wasn't a known Russian sympathizer was driven out of the region and often at gunpoint while their homes and property were looted.
While your analysis is reasonable, I still disagree. I think getting:
1. De jure in addition to de facto control of Crimea.
2. Ongoing Ukrainian territorial disputes that will keep it out of NATO and the EU.
3. And an opportunity to show other countries that Russia can and will invade you, and annex some of your territory, regardless of western sanctions.
is the entirety of what Putin is trying to achieve. So if he does, and if (if!) he can survive the sanctions, he will have achieved victory in the sense of accomplishing his strategic objectives.
Also the US has lost how many helicopters to RPG-7s? A basic dumbfire rocket that's not even that fast.
A Stinger is so much more deadly to a helicopter flying low and slow or hovering and deploying troops than an RPG it's not even funny.
Also we sent maybe a thousand stingers to Afghanistan that were far less capable than modern MANPADS. I dunno how many for sure or how many we sent to Ukraine, but I bet Ukraine had more than the Mujahedeen ever did.
Russia cannot survive the sanctions, so whether Putin can seems rather academic.
Either the West lifts the sanctions or Russia collapses, and I do not expect the West to lift the sanctions if Ukraine falls.