Climate Change: There Will Be A Day After Tomorrow

Mill

Figured I'd stick with the theme of the previous on naming convention and this seems to line up well with the Kurzgesagt that dropped today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw&ab_channel=Kurzgesagt%E2%80%93InaNutshell

The good news is that there has been improvements in green technology both in efficiency and costs. That there have also been other improvements that will help mitigate climate change. That it is actually good business sense to go green. That while climate change is still a thread, we've likely dodged the bullet on it leading to our extinction. That's the good news, the problem is of course we still need to do more and that well many are probably still in for a bad time. At the very least it's progress and it's progress that is gaining momentum.

So welcome to the thread where we continue to discuss climate change, its impacts and what's being done to mitigate it.

Calica

Mill wrote: »

Figured I'd stick with the theme of the previous on naming convention and this seems to line up well with the Kurzgesagt that dropped today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw&ab_channel=Kurzgesagt%E2%80%93InaNutshell

The good news is that there has been improvements in green technology both in efficiency and costs. That there have also been other improvements that will help mitigate climate change. That it is actually good business sense to go green. That while climate change is still a thread, we've likely dodged the bullet on it leading to our extinction. That's the good news, the problem is of course we still need to do more and that well many are probably still in for a bad time. At the very least it's progress and it's progress that is gaining momentum.

So welcome to the thread where we continue to discuss climate change, its impacts and what's being done to mitigate it.

How so? Everything I've heard lately has been "we have the tech to fix this; now we just need the will."

(I realize this is probably covered in the video, but I Do Not Like consuming information that way. If you have a text article I'll happily read it!)

Captain Inertia

There’s a lot of room between extinction and “widespread misery, immigration, weather catastrophe, and trillions in rebuilding costs,” and civilization collapse is one of the possibilities called out in that zone

The video basically says “good news, green tech advancements in the last decade have likely ruled out extinction, but all that other stuff is still in play- don’t get apathetic, there’s still work to do to rule out civilization collapse, but the last decade shows it’s possible”

Captain Inertia

Actually I guess the really important thing is less about advancements in green tech and more that prosperity and fossil fuel consumption are no longer linked- the inconvenient truth is no longer a truth and thus no longer so inconvenient

Dac

Captain Inertia wrote: »

There’s a lot of room between extinction and “widespread misery, immigration, weather catastrophe, and trillions in rebuilding costs,” and civilization collapse is one of the possibilities called out in that zone

The video basically says “good news, green tech advancements in the last decade have likely ruled out extinction, but all that other stuff is still in play- don’t get apathetic, there’s still work to do to rule out civilization collapse, but the last decade shows it’s possible”

"Oh so what you mean is I don't have to do anything anymore. Thank goodness."

Doodmann

Dac wrote: »

Captain Inertia wrote: »

There’s a lot of room between extinction and “widespread misery, immigration, weather catastrophe, and trillions in rebuilding costs,” and civilization collapse is one of the possibilities called out in that zone

The video basically says “good news, green tech advancements in the last decade have likely ruled out extinction, but all that other stuff is still in play- don’t get apathetic, there’s still work to do to rule out civilization collapse, but the last decade shows it’s possible”

"Oh so what you mean is I don't have to do anything anymore. Thank goodness."

honestly, we (individually) have never had to / been able to do anything the whole time. We (collectively) had to fix it structurally and it looks like capitalism, with being a terrible instrument, it going to get us across the finish line by the skin of our teeth.

Captain Inertia

Dac wrote: »

Captain Inertia wrote: »

There’s a lot of room between extinction and “widespread misery, immigration, weather catastrophe, and trillions in rebuilding costs,” and civilization collapse is one of the possibilities called out in that zone

The video basically says “good news, green tech advancements in the last decade have likely ruled out extinction, but all that other stuff is still in play- don’t get apathetic, there’s still work to do to rule out civilization collapse, but the last decade shows it’s possible”

"Oh so what you mean is I don't have to do anything anymore. Thank goodness."

The video clearly states the good news is 8 billion people probably won’t die, but hundreds of millions are going to without continued, even more rapid progress, so the message is very much not “do nothing” it’s actually “don’t let the fossil fuel propagandists trick you into thinking ‘we’re all doomed no matter what so eat at arbys’”

Captain Inertia

Doodmann wrote: »

Dac wrote: »

Captain Inertia wrote: »

There’s a lot of room between extinction and “widespread misery, immigration, weather catastrophe, and trillions in rebuilding costs,” and civilization collapse is one of the possibilities called out in that zone

The video basically says “good news, green tech advancements in the last decade have likely ruled out extinction, but all that other stuff is still in play- don’t get apathetic, there’s still work to do to rule out civilization collapse, but the last decade shows it’s possible”

"Oh so what you mean is I don't have to do anything anymore. Thank goodness."

honestly, we (individually) have never had to / been able to do anything the whole time. We (collectively) had to fix it structurally and it looks like capitalism, with being a terrible instrument, it going to get us across the finish line by the skin of our teeth.

I don’t think it’s capitalism doing anything but no longer being a blocker to progress*

Passionate, concerned scientists and engineers developed enough breakthrough tech to de-link GDP growth and burning fossil fuels and thus the market finally tipped to investing in/consuming green tech:
•both developed and emerging countries decreased their fossil fuel use 2010-2020 while growing their GDPs
•7 out of 10 new cars in Norway in like 2019 were electric, then the following year that increased to 8 of 10, etc

Fossil fuel companies are of course still up to their bullshit, but they’re mostly isolated to blocking legislative progress while every other sector sees financial benefit with adopting lower and/or cleaner energy use

*crypto bullshit might end up derailing all this progress and is a great example of the dipshit “line goes up” gun we’ll always have pointed at our figurative head

HamHamJ

I don't find that video very convincing. Partially I've never really bought that actual extinction was on the table. Humanity can adapt to some serious extremes if it has to. My mental image of climate change has always been based on Mindstar Rising, which is funny because it has basically nothing to do with the actual plot of the book but global sea level rise has gotten so bad that the straights of Gibraltar have become a waterfall and large parts of England have just turned into swamps and it generally has basically a tropical climate now, and it apparently reacted to the climate apocalypse by going full on communist for a couple decades. Life in general is pretty shit compared to the present. I imagine that is what 3° warming will look like. And being all like "if we pull together and start taking this seriously we can totally limit it to 2°s"... we are not going to. You should be planning around those 3°s, and that's assuming one of the many possible unknown tipping points doesn't fuck things up sooner.

electricitylikesme

HamHamJ wrote: »

I don't find that video very convincing. Partially I've never really bought that actual extinction was on the table. Humanity can adapt to some serious extremes if it has to. My mental image of climate change has always been based on Mindstar Rising, which is funny because it has basically nothing to do with the actual plot of the book but global sea level rise has gotten so bad that the straights of Gibraltar have become a waterfall and large parts of England have just turned into swamps and it generally has basically a tropical climate now, and it apparently reacted to the climate apocalypse by going full on communist for a couple decades. Life in general is pretty shit compared to the present. I imagine that is what 3° warming will look like. And being all like "if we pull together and start taking this seriously we can totally limit it to 2°s"... we are not going to. You should be planning around those 3°s, and that's assuming one of the many possible unknown tipping points doesn't fuck things up sooner.

This is my concern too. Wiping ourselves out is hard - even nuclear war wouldn't do it. But rising prices, harsher weather (Australia now swings between bushfires and drought and 3 months of rain and flooding) and more brushfire regional conflicts powered by climate-related stresses (see Syria).

We've never been at risk of extinction - we're at huge risk of making life real bad for ourselves. The western world in general hasn't had experience with large scale regressions on qualify of life either, so there's a distinct lack of fear from government about what that will look like - we're circling the problem now.

Void Slayer

The near extinction warnings were always a worst case scenario of bad luck and poor responses. Where changes are only made at the last minute so that ongoing warming cant be stopped in time.

We are doing some of the responses, hopefully, ahead of time now. It is a matter of luck (the real climate compaired to the many models) and finishing the responses in time.

Dark Raven X

The video was mostly "no, shits fucked, but there IS hope" not "we're good!"

The cynical doomer part of me wants to yell about the economic incentives part though. I don't think it matters even if oil and gas were to start trending towards net losses for the fossil fuel industry. They've spent decades turning this into a cultural and political issue rather than a scientific one. If BP came out tomorrow and said "yo we quit, go solar y'all" the response from chuds would be to start throwing money at the lowest bidder to keep slurping the black stuff out of the ground in ever less safe ways.

Dac

Captain Inertia wrote: »

Dac wrote: »

Captain Inertia wrote: »

There’s a lot of room between extinction and “widespread misery, immigration, weather catastrophe, and trillions in rebuilding costs,” and civilization collapse is one of the possibilities called out in that zone

The video basically says “good news, green tech advancements in the last decade have likely ruled out extinction, but all that other stuff is still in play- don’t get apathetic, there’s still work to do to rule out civilization collapse, but the last decade shows it’s possible”

"Oh so what you mean is I don't have to do anything anymore. Thank goodness."

The video clearly states the good news is 8 billion people probably won’t die, but hundreds of millions are going to without continued, even more rapid progress, so the message is very much not “do nothing” it’s actually “don’t let the fossil fuel propagandists trick you into thinking ‘we’re all doomed no matter what so eat at arbys’”

I'm not saying that's what the message of the video is, I'm saying that's what a lot of people in developed nations are going to think hearing arguments like that. Because people are terrible, and only care about themselves. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯