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Should be interesting tonight. Since I dislike most of these people I won't feel as embarassed for them as I did the dems.
As far as Edwards, take a reeeaaalll good look at where he was ideologically 4-5 years ago, how he was running as a centrist southerner, and tell me you're convinced he didn't completely change his platform for the sake of electability.
edit: what's alienated you from Obama, if you don't mind my asking?
You love him because what he says to the liberal base is "You see what these other guys are going to give you? I'm going to give you more. More More More. You take their most ambitious proposals - I'll double it."
Oh, it's far from love. It's just that, from the candidates we've got, he's the only one that hasn't alienated me that actually has a chance. I might like Richardson if he had a chance, but the man's just too ugly to be elected with the way things work today.
You love him because what he says to the liberal base is "You see what these other guys are going to give you? I'm going to give you more. More More More. You take their most ambitious proposals - I'll double it."
Oh, it's far from love. It's just that, from the candidates we've got, he's the only one that hasn't alienated me that actually has a chance. I might like Richardson if he had a chance, but the man's just too ugly to be elected with the way things work today.
You're pretty easily alienated.
I really am. It happens the second a candidate starts talking seriously about Jesus or god. My exposure to the public version of Edwards has been limited, which is the only reason he hasn't alienated me as well.
Edit: By the way, I'm aware that Edwards is probably the guiltiest of them all in this regard. I'll be voting for Obama on Tuesday, but I can't help but like Edwards for some reason.
You love him because what he says to the liberal base is "You see what these other guys are going to give you? I'm going to give you more. More More More. You take their most ambitious proposals - I'll double it."
Oh, it's far from love. It's just that, from the candidates we've got, he's the only one that hasn't alienated me that actually has a chance. I might like Richardson if he had a chance, but the man's just too ugly to be elected with the way things work today.
You're pretty easily alienated.
I really am. I happens the second a candidate starts talking seriously about Jesus or god. My exposure to the public version of Edwards has been limited, which is the only reason he hasn't alienated me as well.
Sure if you think that people vote specifically on the theme of evolution for US President. You don't exactly exude the ideologies of moderates and conservatives, so I'm guessing you're just looking for an easy disconnect from Republican candidates.
Nah, you don't get it.
I tape Road to the White House on C-Span every weekend. I've been watching Huckabee for over a year. I am thoroughly familiar with him.
And I have a pretty good feel for moderates and conservatives actually. My strong attachement to the Democrats isn't because of an extreme ideology.
Fact is, Huckabee is a light weight. Not even a very intellegent lightweight with a good resume like George H.W. Bush. Like, not an impressive, serious person. He would be destroyed. He's a chump. If nominated he would give a very amiable and polite concession speech.
You have a point there. I don't know any other Arkansas governors that made it to president after being low in the ranks and overlooked. None at all.
You know, Bill Clinton winning the presidency doesn't pave the way to the presidency for every featherweight with a lazy eye and fucked up teeth who sits in the governor's mansion in Little Rock.
The problem with Huckabee is not that he is from Arkansas. The problem with Huckabee is that he isn't a very impressive candidate.
Sure if you think that people vote specifically on the theme of evolution for US President. You don't exactly exude the ideologies of moderates and conservatives, so I'm guessing you're just looking for an easy disconnect from Republican candidates.
Nah, you don't get it.
I tape Road to the White House on C-Span every weekend. I've been watching Huckabee for over a year. I am thoroughly familiar with him.
And I have a pretty good feel for moderates and conservatives actually. My strong attachement to the Democrats isn't because of an extreme ideology.
Fact is, Huckabee is a light weight. Not even a very intellegent lightweight with a good resume like George H.W. Bush. Like, not an impressive, serious person. He would be destroyed. He's a chump. If nominated he would give a very amiable and polite concession speech.
You have a point there. I don't know any other Arkansas governors that made it to president after being low in the ranks and overlooked. None at all.
You know, Bill Clinton winning the presidency doesn't pave the way to the presidency for every featherweight with a lazy eye and fucked up teeth who sits in the governor's mansion in Little Rock.
The problem with Huckabee is not that he is from Arkansas. The problem with Huckabee is that he isn't a very impressive candidate.
.... according to your liberal viewpoints. I could say the same thing about Biden or Obama to you.
Should be interesting tonight. Since I dislike most of these people I won't feel as embarassed for them as I did the dems.
I’d hate to be a Republican voter in this upcoming election. The standard opposition party backlash, the Bush backlash, and a fairly underwhelming list of candidates.
GoslingLooking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered Userregular
edited June 2007
10 people on stage, plus Fred, the Eye of Newt looming as well, and (as far as I know) no more Republican debates until October.
Campaigns will end tonight. Not might. Will. Any straggler that fails to make an impression is done, because if they can't get it done tonight, there's no way in hell they're going to get enough momentum on the campaign trail, and if you're still in the sub-5% club in October, you're toast. Someone might get knocked out, as nobody is in a position to play the unity let's-keep-numbers-stagnant card like Hillary did (and Rudy isn't the kind of guy to play that card anyway), so everyone will be on the attack trying to knock people out of this race.
Gosling on
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
.... according to your liberal viewpoints. I could say the same thing about Biden or Obama to you.
You know, calling me a liberal isn't all that great a comeback. It's not like believing in gay marriage makes me incapable of evaluating someone's foreign policy credentials or their charisma or their appeal to the electorate.
You don't need to be a liberal to know that a guy who plays with his band (Capitol Punishment) at campaign events, who has no foreign policy experience, who is competing with four other guys over the religious conservative vote, who isn't particularly telegenic or charismatic and whose major statewide accomplishments have been increasing government healthcare and taxes doesn't have much of a chance to win his party's nomination, let alone the general election.
Be serious. The guy is running for vice president - betting that Rudy McRomney will need a southern baptist to compliment them on the ticket and appease the base.
Shinto on
0
GoslingLooking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered Userregular
in case anybody was interested, here's the intrade.com predition markets
2008 Republican Pres Nominee(Others on Request)
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 24.5 24.8 24.3 88363 -0.8
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Gov Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 22.2 23.2 22.1 71118 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 25.1 25.5 25.8 22120 +0.9
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 16.1 16.2 15.7 88039 -1.3
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.4 2.5 2.3 37696 +0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
Gov Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 1.9 2.0 2.0 37532 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.6 2.9 3.0 30529 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE
Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.8 0.9 0.9 88237 -0.0
2008.GOP.NOM.HAGEL
Sen Chuck Hagel to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.8 0.8 33820 +0.4
2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG
Michael Bloomberg to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.6 0.4 26162 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BROWNBCK
Sen. Sam Brownback to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.7 0.5 26124 0
2008.GOP.NOM.CHENEY
VP Richard B Cheney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.5 29281 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.BUSH(J)
Gov Jeb Bush to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.4 34803 +0.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(T)
Tommy Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.2 0.4 0.3 25991 0
2008.GOP.NOM.TANCREDO
Tom Tancredo to be the Rep Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.3 0.4 0.2 17792 0
2008.GOP.NOM.POWELL
Colin Powell to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.2 24238 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 21189 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SANTORUM
Rick Santorum to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20091 0
2008.GOP.NOM.OWENS
Gov Bill Owens to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20504 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GRAHAM
Lindsey Graham to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 15756 0
2008.GOP.NOM.ALLEN
George Allen to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 36997 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAWLENTY
Tim Pawlenty to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 18878 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SANFORD
Mark Sanford to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20034 0
2008.GOP.NOM.DOLE(E)
Elizabeth Dole to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 15961 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SCHWARZ
Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 10885 0
2008.GOP.NOM.RIDGE
Tom Ridge to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 14625 0
2008.GOP.NOM.FRANKS
Retired General Tommy Franks to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 4314 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GILMORE
Jim Gilmore to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 13365 0
2008.GOP.NOM.WARNER
Senator John Warner to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 3432 0
2008.GOP.NOM.FRIST
Sen Bill Frist to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 24049 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PATAKI
Gov George Pataki to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 23535 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BARBOUR
Haley Barbour to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 17441 0
Jim Gilmore is polling barely above a guy who isn't even Constitutionally eligible for President. (As I read it. If I'm interpreting this right. He might even be below.) Oh, man.
Gosling on
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
in case anybody was interested, here's the intrade.com predition markets
2008 Republican Pres Nominee(Others on Request)
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 24.5 24.8 24.3 88363 -0.8
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Gov Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 22.2 23.2 22.1 71118 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 25.1 25.5 25.8 22120 +0.9
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 16.1 16.2 15.7 88039 -1.3
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.4 2.5 2.3 37696 +0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
Gov Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 1.9 2.0 2.0 37532 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.6 2.9 3.0 30529 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE
Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.8 0.9 0.9 88237 -0.0
2008.GOP.NOM.HAGEL
Sen Chuck Hagel to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.8 0.8 33820 +0.4
2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG
Michael Bloomberg to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.6 0.4 26162 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BROWNBCK
Sen. Sam Brownback to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.7 0.5 26124 0
2008.GOP.NOM.CHENEY
VP Richard B Cheney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.5 29281 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.BUSH(J)
Gov Jeb Bush to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.4 34803 +0.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(T)
Tommy Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.2 0.4 0.3 25991 0
2008.GOP.NOM.TANCREDO
Tom Tancredo to be the Rep Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.3 0.4 0.2 17792 0
2008.GOP.NOM.POWELL
Colin Powell to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.2 24238 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 21189 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SANTORUM
Rick Santorum to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20091 0
2008.GOP.NOM.OWENS
Gov Bill Owens to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20504 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GRAHAM
Lindsey Graham to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 15756 0
2008.GOP.NOM.ALLEN
George Allen to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 36997 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAWLENTY
Tim Pawlenty to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 18878 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SANFORD
Mark Sanford to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20034 0
2008.GOP.NOM.DOLE(E)
Elizabeth Dole to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 15961 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SCHWARZ
Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 10885 0
2008.GOP.NOM.RIDGE
Tom Ridge to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 14625 0
2008.GOP.NOM.FRANKS
Retired General Tommy Franks to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 4314 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GILMORE
Jim Gilmore to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 13365 0
2008.GOP.NOM.WARNER
Senator John Warner to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 3432 0
2008.GOP.NOM.FRIST
Sen Bill Frist to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 24049 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PATAKI
Gov George Pataki to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 23535 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BARBOUR
Haley Barbour to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 17441 0
Jim Gilmore is polling barely above a guy who isn't even Constitutionally eligible for President. (As I read it. If I'm interpreting this right. He might even be below.) Oh, man.
You know, Bill Clinton winning the presidency doesn't pave the way to the presidency for every featherweight with a lazy eye and fucked up teeth who sits in the governor's mansion in Little Rock.
The problem with Huckabee is not that he is from Arkansas. The problem with Huckabee is that he isn't a very impressive candidate.
.... according to your liberal viewpoints. I could say the same thing about Biden or Obama to you.
You know, I think Shinto has a better grasp of conservative mentality than most conservatives.
Just saying.
FWIW, I sort of agree with Shinto. Clinton succeeded because he was superhumanly charismatic amidst a field of eminently unlikeable candidates, and then ran in the general against an unpopular president who got us into a war and presided over a recession. He's also wily as all fuck and can disarm most legitimate accusations by smiling real purty. Huckabee is not Clinton. Huckabee is an affable enough fellow, but he's out of his league.
ElJeffe on
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
in case anybody was interested, here's the intrade.com predition markets
2008 Republican Pres Nominee(Others on Request)
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 24.5 24.8 24.3 88363 -0.8
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Gov Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 22.2 23.2 22.1 71118 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 25.1 25.5 25.8 22120 +0.9
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 16.1 16.2 15.7 88039 -1.3
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.4 2.5 2.3 37696 +0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
Gov Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 1.9 2.0 2.0 37532 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.6 2.9 3.0 30529 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE
Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.8 0.9 0.9 88237 -0.0
2008.GOP.NOM.HAGEL
Sen Chuck Hagel to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.8 0.8 33820 +0.4
2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG
Michael Bloomberg to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.6 0.4 26162 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BROWNBCK
Sen. Sam Brownback to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.7 0.5 26124 0
2008.GOP.NOM.CHENEY
VP Richard B Cheney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.5 29281 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.BUSH(J)
Gov Jeb Bush to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.4 34803 +0.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(T)
Tommy Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.2 0.4 0.3 25991 0
2008.GOP.NOM.TANCREDO
Tom Tancredo to be the Rep Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.3 0.4 0.2 17792 0
2008.GOP.NOM.POWELL
Colin Powell to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.2 24238 +0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 21189 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SANTORUM
Rick Santorum to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20091 0
2008.GOP.NOM.OWENS
Gov Bill Owens to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20504 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GRAHAM
Lindsey Graham to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 15756 0
2008.GOP.NOM.ALLEN
George Allen to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 36997 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAWLENTY
Tim Pawlenty to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 18878 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SANFORD
Mark Sanford to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 20034 0
2008.GOP.NOM.DOLE(E)
Elizabeth Dole to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 15961 0
2008.GOP.NOM.SCHWARZ
Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 10885 0
2008.GOP.NOM.RIDGE
Tom Ridge to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 14625 0
2008.GOP.NOM.FRANKS
Retired General Tommy Franks to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 4314 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GILMORE
Jim Gilmore to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 13365 0
2008.GOP.NOM.WARNER
Senator John Warner to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 3432 0
2008.GOP.NOM.FRIST
Sen Bill Frist to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 24049 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PATAKI
Gov George Pataki to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 23535 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BARBOUR
Haley Barbour to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 - 17441 0
Jim Gilmore is polling barely above a guy who isn't even Constitutionally eligible for President. (As I read it. If I'm interpreting this right. He might even be below.) Oh, man.
Ok here's how to read it. Anything that is .1 with no bid price means, according to the gambling public, this person has less then a .1 percent chance of winning. I'm guessing it's impossible to go below .1% for bid increments. So basically absolutely NO ONE at this point is willing to put money down on the chance that they'll be the President, and the people who currently own a share of that chance are trying to sell it at .1%.
For all intents and purposes 0/.1 up there equals 1 in 1000 chance or lower, and likely MUCH lower.
You need to remember, also, that this has been going on for some time. So remember last year when people were talking about a constitutional amendment to let Arnold run, or how Rice should be the nominee. (And unless a miracle happens in foreign policy in the next 3 months, she likely isn't going to)
By trimming the race down you get a better idea of what people put the odds of a person winning are.
Thompson is in first place, then Giuliani and Romney (both very close), then McCain, then Ron Paul, Gingrich, and finally Huckabee. My guess is that people really assume Thompson is going to run, and that Gingrich probably won't run, or that (more likely) Thompson or others will narrow the field enough into a single candidate that Gingrich will not be needed to run.
Notice that Paul has risen to the pack of the second tiers, and that people don't expect Gingrich to run, since conventional polls that include him place him MUCH higher up in terms of people that'd vote for him.
You know, Bill Clinton winning the presidency doesn't pave the way to the presidency for every featherweight with a lazy eye and fucked up teeth who sits in the governor's mansion in Little Rock.
The problem with Huckabee is not that he is from Arkansas. The problem with Huckabee is that he isn't a very impressive candidate.
.... according to your liberal viewpoints. I could say the same thing about Biden or Obama to you.
You know, I think Shinto has a better grasp of conservative mentality than most conservatives.
Just saying.
FWIW, I sort of agree with Shinto. Clinton succeeded because he was superhumanly charismatic amidst a field of eminently unlikeable candidates, and then ran in the general against an unpopular president who got us into a war and presided over a recession. He's also wily as all fuck and can disarm most legitimate accusations by smiling real purty. Huckabee is not Clinton. Huckabee is an affable enough fellow, but he's out of his league.
I readily admit that Huckabee is a longshot at president at this point, but if we look down the line at who could win the nomination that ISN'T McCain, Romney, or Guliani, then we really only have two people: Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. That's of course presuming Newt doesn't flip the whole thing on its head, I would think he would wait four years and then run when the public opinion of the conservative base isn't so acidic.
It sounds like everyone is discounting (or forgetting) the fact that most political commentators after the last debate said Huckabee was in the top two, and easily reached the same level as the leading three. Then we have people saying he can't do it because of his credentials, which again is a load of crap because we just don't know at this point, and it's been done before.
Add to all that, I have a staunch liberal telling his opinions about how staunch conservatives are going to vote on Republican. When I say "I vote Democrat on certain issues," I get flamed, but when he does it, he shits golden political nuggets of truth. I'm just saying, let's just watch the debates and decide on merit, not on who speaks the loudest.
EDIT: Ron Paul in fifth? That's downright laughable.
Yeah, commentators say Biden does fantastic at the debates also. I don't entertain delusions that he is going to win the nomination though.
You say "I vote Democrat on certain issues" to try and prevent yourself from being pigeonholed as a conservative taking the usual conservative line. You say it to make yourself be more convincing.
I don't do that. Don't go crying about how unfair it is. In fact, I'm at a loss to see the connection between the two events.
Shinto on
0
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
Add to all that, I have a staunch liberal telling his opinions about how staunch conservatives are going to vote on Republican.
Why exactly does being a liberal decrease my understanding of conservatives and the Republican primary?
Edit: You don't have a point. You have an attitude.
Because you don't get a vote? Because you don't know what issues are important to conservatives, VOTING conservatives? Because you just said someone shouldn't be president because of a mother fucking picture?
I still fail to see Shinto as a particularly liberal person. I've always seen him as a moderate with a few conservative positions and a few liberal positions.
ElJeffe on
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
I still fail to see Shinto as a particularly liberal person. I've always seen him as a moderate with a few conservative positions and a few liberal positions.
And I love you ElJeffe, but you're kinda - and when I say kinda I mean really, really, really - wrong on this. I cannot stress that enough.
imbalanced on
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
0
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
Add to all that, I have a staunch liberal telling his opinions about how staunch conservatives are going to vote on Republican.
Why exactly does being a liberal decrease my understanding of conservatives and the Republican primary?
Edit: You don't have a point. You have an attitude.
Because you don't get a vote? Because you don't know what issues are important to conservatives, VOTING conservatives? Because you just said someone shouldn't be president because of a mother fucking picture?
He said that Huckabee won't be president because he's a lightweight. And it's true.
And as far as "issues important to conservatives" go, how'd that Gary Bauer or Alan Keyes thing go for you guys?
Irond Will on
0
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
I still fail to see Shinto as a particularly liberal person. I've always seen him as a moderate with a few conservative positions and a few liberal positions.
And I love you ElJeffe, but you're kinda - and when I say kinda I mean really, really, really - wrong on this. I cannot stress that enough.
Shinto's pretty conservative for a Democrat. He's pretty deeply into foreign policy realism, strongly religious, and very traditionalist.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
Add to all that, I have a staunch liberal telling his opinions about how staunch conservatives are going to vote on Republican.
Why exactly does being a liberal decrease my understanding of conservatives and the Republican primary?
Edit: You don't have a point. You have an attitude.
Because you don't get a vote? Because you don't know what issues are important to conservatives, VOTING conservatives? Because you just said someone shouldn't be president because of a mother fucking picture?
I do get a vote. In New Hampshire no less.
Are conservatives aware of what issues are important to voting conservatives? Because last I checked Huckabee wasn't breaking double digits in IA or NH.
And I'm wrong because I enjoy making fun of lightweight politicians? Because if that's the case I'll have to stop making fun of Kucinich, lest he roar from behind and win the Democratic Primary!
I still fail to see Shinto as a particularly liberal person. I've always seen him as a moderate with a few conservative positions and a few liberal positions.
What if he has sex with three males of various minorities and subsidizes their STD checks with his higher taxes?
EDIT: Ron Paul in fifth? That's downright laughable.
Here's a fun list for comparisons
Contract Bid Ask
US recession 07 11.0 14.0
Gonzales resign by 6/07 20.0 24.0
Libby pardoned 62.5 69.7
DeLay guilty laundering 26.0 27.9
Bird flu in US by 30/06/07 1.5 9.4
US attack N.Ko by 12/07 1.0 3.5
US-I bomb Iran by 12/07 16.2 18.0
Hamas rec Isr by 6/07 1.0 5.0
Osama captured by 12/07 11.4 12.7
GOP House 2008 15.0 18.5
GOP Senate 2008 13.5 23.0
GOP president 2008 41.5 41.6
Giuliani GOP nominee 08 24.5 24.8
Giuliani president 08 11.3 12.8
McCain GOP nominee 08 15.6 16.2
McCain president 08 8.7 9.0
Romney GOP nominee 08 22.2 23.2
Thompson GOP nom 08 25.1 25.5
Paul GOP nominee 08 2.6 2.9
DEM president 2008 55.7 56.4
Obama DEM nominee 08 26.6 27.4
Obama president 16.4 17.1
Clinton DEM nominee 08 51.3 51.8
Clinton president 08 34.7 38.0
Paul being in 5th actually makes sense if you assume Gingrich will not run.
First assume the the polls are wrong. In 2006 18-29s cast 13% of the votes in the US. A recent news report showed that 25-30% of people this age do not have a landline phone. Meaning that roughly about 3-4% of the voting public is underpolled, but I suspect it's higher then that.
Now think about it, Ron Paul has won every major online poll, (Young people use the net more then old voters), youtube subscribers (Which also is young people), and the cell phone votes (Which young people are more likely to own a cell phone and more likely to vote on text message votes).
We've seen this before, in 1936 Roosevelt was said to lose by a landslide, because telephone surveys said that he would. The problem was that most poor people didn't have a phone, and most rich people wouldn't vote for Roosevelt.
In context, this puts Paul in 5th place in the nominees, 6th if Gingrich actually is in the race, and 4th if Thompson and Gingrich do NOT (which I'm fairly sure Thompson will announce at this point). Considering that none of the second tier candidates have distinguished themselves from the pack, most are divided over specific one-issue (the border) or partisan (the fundy) votes...
I believe it.
Now, what's the chance Rudy will have his own Iowa Scream? What's the chance Romney will implode? What's the chance Fred Thompson is seen as adds-nothing-new, or doesn't run. Or the Iraq war goes haywire enough even die hards can't take it... and you're left with the alternative. That's Ron Paul.
Alexan Drite on
0
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
edited June 2007
You do not understand the needs of the real-life voting liberal, Shinto. We love Kucinich with all our hearts and will release a dove in protest should his primary bid fail.
Add to all that, I have a staunch liberal telling his opinions about how staunch conservatives are going to vote on Republican.
Why exactly does being a liberal decrease my understanding of conservatives and the Republican primary?
Edit: You don't have a point. You have an attitude.
Because you don't get a vote? Because you don't know what issues are important to conservatives, VOTING conservatives? Because you just said someone shouldn't be president because of a mother fucking picture?
I do get a vote. In New Hampshire no less.
Are conservatives aware of what issues are important to voting conservatives? Because last I checked Huckabee wasn't breaking double digits in IA or NH.
And I'm wrong because I enjoy making fun of lightweight politicians? Because if that's the case I'll have to stop making fun of Kucinich, lest he roar from behind and win the Democratic Primary!
Ugh, open primaries are so stupid.
I don't even make fun of Kucinich. It's like kicking a preschooler.
You do not understand the needs of the real-life voting liberal, Shinto. We love Kucinich with all our hearts and will release a dove in protest should his primary bid fail.
I still fail to see Shinto as a particularly liberal person. I've always seen him as a moderate with a few conservative positions and a few liberal positions.
And I love you ElJeffe, but you're kinda - and when I say kinda I mean really, really, really - wrong on this. I cannot stress that enough.
Shinto's pretty conservative for a Democrat. He's pretty deeply into foreign policy realism, strongly religious, and very traditionalist.
Like you guys are good judges. You've only known me for two or three years.
At night, I secretly climb out of bed and ride around on a magic unicorn performing abortions for poor minority women.
Shinto on
0
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
You do not understand the needs of the real-life voting liberal, Shinto. We love Kucinich with all our hearts and will release a dove in protest should his primary bid fail.
Does the dove get a vote in this?
maybe. We're going to have a rally and bounce ideas off of each other to decide. We will form a consensus on the issue, and will listen to a jam band.
Posts
As far as Edwards, take a reeeaaalll good look at where he was ideologically 4-5 years ago, how he was running as a centrist southerner, and tell me you're convinced he didn't completely change his platform for the sake of electability.
edit: what's alienated you from Obama, if you don't mind my asking?
You're pretty easily alienated.
I really am. It happens the second a candidate starts talking seriously about Jesus or god. My exposure to the public version of Edwards has been limited, which is the only reason he hasn't alienated me as well.
Edit: By the way, I'm aware that Edwards is probably the guiltiest of them all in this regard. I'll be voting for Obama on Tuesday, but I can't help but like Edwards for some reason.
It must be really limited.
You know, Bill Clinton winning the presidency doesn't pave the way to the presidency for every featherweight with a lazy eye and fucked up teeth who sits in the governor's mansion in Little Rock.
The problem with Huckabee is not that he is from Arkansas. The problem with Huckabee is that he isn't a very impressive candidate.
.... according to your liberal viewpoints. I could say the same thing about Biden or Obama to you.
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
Campaigns will end tonight. Not might. Will. Any straggler that fails to make an impression is done, because if they can't get it done tonight, there's no way in hell they're going to get enough momentum on the campaign trail, and if you're still in the sub-5% club in October, you're toast. Someone might get knocked out, as nobody is in a position to play the unity let's-keep-numbers-stagnant card like Hillary did (and Rudy isn't the kind of guy to play that card anyway), so everyone will be on the attack trying to knock people out of this race.
You know, calling me a liberal isn't all that great a comeback. It's not like believing in gay marriage makes me incapable of evaluating someone's foreign policy credentials or their charisma or their appeal to the electorate.
You don't need to be a liberal to know that a guy who plays with his band (Capitol Punishment) at campaign events, who has no foreign policy experience, who is competing with four other guys over the religious conservative vote, who isn't particularly telegenic or charismatic and whose major statewide accomplishments have been increasing government healthcare and taxes doesn't have much of a chance to win his party's nomination, let alone the general election.
Be serious. The guy is running for vice president - betting that Rudy McRomney will need a southern baptist to compliment them on the ticket and appease the base.
- Jim Gilmore
- Who?
No name recognition.
You know, I think Shinto has a better grasp of conservative mentality than most conservatives.
Just saying.
FWIW, I sort of agree with Shinto. Clinton succeeded because he was superhumanly charismatic amidst a field of eminently unlikeable candidates, and then ran in the general against an unpopular president who got us into a war and presided over a recession. He's also wily as all fuck and can disarm most legitimate accusations by smiling real purty. Huckabee is not Clinton. Huckabee is an affable enough fellow, but he's out of his league.
Ok here's how to read it. Anything that is .1 with no bid price means, according to the gambling public, this person has less then a .1 percent chance of winning. I'm guessing it's impossible to go below .1% for bid increments. So basically absolutely NO ONE at this point is willing to put money down on the chance that they'll be the President, and the people who currently own a share of that chance are trying to sell it at .1%.
For all intents and purposes 0/.1 up there equals 1 in 1000 chance or lower, and likely MUCH lower.
You need to remember, also, that this has been going on for some time. So remember last year when people were talking about a constitutional amendment to let Arnold run, or how Rice should be the nominee. (And unless a miracle happens in foreign policy in the next 3 months, she likely isn't going to)
By trimming the race down you get a better idea of what people put the odds of a person winning are.
Thompson is in first place, then Giuliani and Romney (both very close), then McCain, then Ron Paul, Gingrich, and finally Huckabee. My guess is that people really assume Thompson is going to run, and that Gingrich probably won't run, or that (more likely) Thompson or others will narrow the field enough into a single candidate that Gingrich will not be needed to run.
Notice that Paul has risen to the pack of the second tiers, and that people don't expect Gingrich to run, since conventional polls that include him place him MUCH higher up in terms of people that'd vote for him.
I readily admit that Huckabee is a longshot at president at this point, but if we look down the line at who could win the nomination that ISN'T McCain, Romney, or Guliani, then we really only have two people: Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. That's of course presuming Newt doesn't flip the whole thing on its head, I would think he would wait four years and then run when the public opinion of the conservative base isn't so acidic.
It sounds like everyone is discounting (or forgetting) the fact that most political commentators after the last debate said Huckabee was in the top two, and easily reached the same level as the leading three. Then we have people saying he can't do it because of his credentials, which again is a load of crap because we just don't know at this point, and it's been done before.
Add to all that, I have a staunch liberal telling his opinions about how staunch conservatives are going to vote on Republican. When I say "I vote Democrat on certain issues," I get flamed, but when he does it, he shits golden political nuggets of truth. I'm just saying, let's just watch the debates and decide on merit, not on who speaks the loudest.
EDIT: Ron Paul in fifth? That's downright laughable.
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
You say "I vote Democrat on certain issues" to try and prevent yourself from being pigeonholed as a conservative taking the usual conservative line. You say it to make yourself be more convincing.
I don't do that. Don't go crying about how unfair it is. In fact, I'm at a loss to see the connection between the two events.
Heh.
I look at that face and I think "This is the guy who should guide our country in time of war."
For fucks sake.
And so I've proved my point.
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
Why exactly does being a liberal decrease my understanding of conservatives and the Republican primary?
Edit: You don't have a point. You have an attitude. You like Huckabee.
Because you don't get a vote? Because you don't know what issues are important to conservatives, VOTING conservatives? Because you just said someone shouldn't be president because of a mother fucking picture?
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
And I love you ElJeffe, but you're kinda - and when I say kinda I mean really, really, really - wrong on this. I cannot stress that enough.
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
He said that Huckabee won't be president because he's a lightweight. And it's true.
And as far as "issues important to conservatives" go, how'd that Gary Bauer or Alan Keyes thing go for you guys?
I do get a vote. In New Hampshire no less.
Are conservatives aware of what issues are important to voting conservatives? Because last I checked Huckabee wasn't breaking double digits in IA or NH.
And I'm wrong because I enjoy making fun of lightweight politicians? Because if that's the case I'll have to stop making fun of Kucinich, lest he roar from behind and win the Democratic Primary!
Paul being in 5th actually makes sense if you assume Gingrich will not run.
First assume the the polls are wrong. In 2006 18-29s cast 13% of the votes in the US. A recent news report showed that 25-30% of people this age do not have a landline phone. Meaning that roughly about 3-4% of the voting public is underpolled, but I suspect it's higher then that.
Now think about it, Ron Paul has won every major online poll, (Young people use the net more then old voters), youtube subscribers (Which also is young people), and the cell phone votes (Which young people are more likely to own a cell phone and more likely to vote on text message votes).
We've seen this before, in 1936 Roosevelt was said to lose by a landslide, because telephone surveys said that he would. The problem was that most poor people didn't have a phone, and most rich people wouldn't vote for Roosevelt.
In context, this puts Paul in 5th place in the nominees, 6th if Gingrich actually is in the race, and 4th if Thompson and Gingrich do NOT (which I'm fairly sure Thompson will announce at this point). Considering that none of the second tier candidates have distinguished themselves from the pack, most are divided over specific one-issue (the border) or partisan (the fundy) votes...
I believe it.
Now, what's the chance Rudy will have his own Iowa Scream? What's the chance Romney will implode? What's the chance Fred Thompson is seen as adds-nothing-new, or doesn't run. Or the Iraq war goes haywire enough even die hards can't take it... and you're left with the alternative. That's Ron Paul.
Ugh, open primaries are so stupid.
I don't even make fun of Kucinich. It's like kicking a preschooler.
Wii Code: 1040-1320-0724-3613 :!!:
Like you guys are good judges. You've only known me for two or three years.
At night, I secretly climb out of bed and ride around on a magic unicorn performing abortions for poor minority women.