The new forums will be named Coin Return (based on the most recent
vote)! You can check on the status and timeline of the transition to the new forums
here.
We now return to our regularly scheduled PA Forums. Please let me (Hahnsoo1) know if something isn't working. The Holiday Forum will remain up until January 10, 2025.
[Ukraine] Thread, Dedicated to the memory of Juice and Moonfish.
Posts
Any sort of conjecture that "Trump will do (something else), because it makes sense!" has always looked to me like untethered fantasy, at best.
It's all but spelled out in the Mueller report.
Remember that? Apparently nobody else does.
If Trump does that anyways then there's no reason for Ukraine to follow the rules.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-commander-announces-large-scale-transformation-of-ground-forces-of-ukraine/
New Commander Announces Large-Scale Transformation of Ground Forces of Ukraine
Direct translation of his post
https://t.me/Drapatyi_KSV/6
First of all - in the attitude towards people. Human dignity and high-quality training of personnel are in the focus of my attention. It involves reformatting programs and transforming training centers for faster, but at the same time highly professional training, in accordance with the needs of the Armed Forces and the dynamics of the front. More development of new, high-quality simulators, the latest teaching methods.
The skills and abilities of our foundation - the infantryman - should be as applied and practical as possible, without unnecessary lyrics, and the main carriers of this knowledge will be the sergeant corps with combat experience.
The emphasis in these changes will be oriented on the principles of military leadership and knowledge of technologies. Without such skills, it is impossible to establish control over the chaos of battle, and now this is one of the main goals for changing the situation on the front.
We must remember that the Land Forces must be ready for new security challenges, which is impossible without a transparent recruiting model. This process will be installed with maximum transparency and zero tolerance for corruption. The mutated gene of the old man will be eradicated; social support will become permanent: from the first day of service to employment in civilian life after discharge. I see this approach being implemented through changes in the support of servicemen and their family members.
Secondly, this is a technological advantage in the armament of the infantryman. The Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine must become high-tech, flexible and adaptive. Elite. For now, I will refrain from details. We will work here jointly and in coordination with the team of the General Staff, the President of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense and other ministries, our rear - volunteers and foundations.
Thirdly, this is the optimization of management processes - we need maneuverability and efficiency in the administrative apparatus. This will be achieved through organizational changes and digitalization. Emphasis on logistical support and training. The main goal is to critically review the structure of the officer staff's time spent on clerical work, to find a more useful use of the released resource.
In summary. People, technology and transparent management are the focus of attention that will be introduced in the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
I received support for this from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
Changes will certainly come.
No matter how difficult it is for us, we have no right not to do it. This is how I see my task today.
The Ukrainian people, every soldier, having joined the ranks of the Armed Forces, began to build the army of the future. We must complete our work with a double victory - over the enemy, and over everything that hindered the transformation of the army.
Yeah, I doubt we're going to hear much about plucky UA front line people calling the Washington state National Guard for help operating a Javelin in the foreseeable future.
~ Buckaroo Banzai
And indeed another hint. Oofest of oofs.
Where?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report
Presumably he wasn't concerned by Trump's connections with Russia, he just didn't want the US to be run by a guy who has his steak well-done with ketchup.
That's... feeble.
Not really going into it again, but he went to the exact extent of his authority, and the AG fucked him there as well.
Watching the Trump-is-a-Manchurian-candidate thing for the last eight years was how I realized that my team also has its pet conspiracy theories that can't be dislodged. This has been investigated pretty much to death, and nothing substantial was ever found.
Trump likes Putin because he likes dictators, especially those who seem savvy and cold-blooded. Putin likes Trump because, in addition to that first part, the U.S. electing Trump is the U.S. punching itself in the dick. He also likes Bernie Sanders and the Green Party and BLM and the Oathkeepers and anything else that raises tensions in American civil society. That's it. That's the entire story you need to understand the set of facts in the record. It's not as satisfying as pee tapes and treason, but it's in keeping with observable reality.
Theres also the question of if the rest of europe (IE germany, sweden, france and britain) will give two shits if they decide to hammer russian targets with LRMS.
Given the lay of the land I'm going to say "no".
You confuse intent for outcome.
It doesn't matter why Trump is a Russian asset and a traitor. The results are the same.
He is unequivocally a Russian asset. He and his people take Russian money and use it to further the Russian agenda. He negotiates in secret with Putin to gain power, undermine democracy, and use it for Putin's causes. He would give Ukraine wholesale to Russia if he could.
And he is unequivocally a traitor. He will sell out the American people for a dollar to line his own pockets. He instigated and planned the June 6 attack on the Capitol. He gave up, intentionally or not, American agents and assets in the field.
I don't care why Trump is a Russian asset and a traitor. But I know he is one.
I wasn't saying the Mueller investigation was feeble, although I think that he was cowardly for not simply saying the Trump obstructed justice. That wikipedia section is just incredibly remote from "Trump is a compromised Russian asset and a traitor. It's all but spelled out in the Mueller report."
Trump was literally meeting with russian agents without any US personell in the oval office and was consistently doing damn near everything Putin wanted up to and including meeting with him in finland because Putin said he would after the whitehouse staff said he wouldn't.
It's possible that trump's just an idiot, a simp, a coward (or some combination thereof) but the consistency with which he has moved in the interests of russia at the expense of america and it's allies lends credence to the liklihood that trump is compromised.
Someone needs to convince him that the real move that Putin would respect would be for Trump to screw him over for personal gain. Keep those sanctions until Russia collapses and make deals with the fragments Donald, it's what Putin would do in your place. That will really make him think you're cool and strong.
You would have thought that in 2017 but he rolled out the red carpet and played a whipped dog back then too.
Like... If I'm trump (a self aggrandizing trecherous cowardly shit) then I'd be looking to extort the shit out of Russia to get them into a position of subservience to me.
In fact so much the better, because it emphasises the difference between Him and, well, us.
Romania's constitutional court cancelled their 1st round election results after all mainstream political parties met and made public inteligence on a massive foreign interference campaign, involving 10s of thousands of coordinated tiktok accounts and bribing far right influencers to spread favourable messages to an outsider pro Russia candidate who is repeatedly on record wanting to stop all aid to Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ndg1eeeno
We have proof publicly of what went down in Romania and the scale of the money and effort to push the scales. The US is infinitely more important strategically.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2024_United_States_elections
Is likely not scratching the surface and this stuff is already pretty damning:
"Two employees of the Russian state-owned propaganda network RT (Kostiantyn Kalashnikov and Elena Afansayeva) were indicted for conspiracy and violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act for operating a money laundering operation that had sent at least $9.7 million[12] to support the creation and distribution of propaganda videos on American social media."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/15/7489168/
Some telegram vids there. Apparently could be 8000 tonnes leaked.
Weird that both happened at the same time.
Meanwhile Suchominus reports footage of North Koreans (the ones who survived the little welcome show that Ukraine gave them) attacking:
Not that weird. Kerch strait just had a serious storm with very heavy waves. One of the tankers was ran ground and had its bow broken off while what exactly has happened to the other isn't 100% clear.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
I suspect that between said weather, the potential for drones to immolate literal tonnes of oil and the issue of having two massive tanker wrecks in the strait there's a good chance russia isn't sending anything down that way for the foreseeable future.
I was going to say, it's probably MORE likely this happens in the same storm than in different ones.
The route is also the home turf for some truly decrepit ships. One of the ships that sunk was a 55-year-old oil hauler that had previously been on a longer route, but then shortened (to relieve structural stress) and had its bow re-welded on and used as a hauler between Rostov-on-Don and black sea ports (in what's normally quite calm waters).
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-troops-destroyed-a-russian-fuel-train-in-the-zaporizhzhia-region/
Ukrainian troops destroyed a Russian fuel train in the Zaporizhzhia region
Also we have some more info about the recently revealed new drone-missile
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-peklo-drone-missiles-will-be-cheaper-than-liutyi-drones/
Also it's not like Ukraine is in a position where they can strike the repair team. I mean, they could, but Russia has plenty of higher priority targets that they can use their finite resources on and destroying fuel, equipment, supplies and military personnel are of higher value than a team of mooks fixing rail tracks. The former is a permanent solution, while the later is merely delaying things getting to a certain point on the map.
That was true in 2022, but I hear that their track repair capability has suffered some attrition this last couple of years. They still have a competent and fairly effective operation, but it's apparently rather overstretched.
Yeah the wrecking of the train and the fuel were the best results here.
Any railway that was wrecked is just a small and temporary bonus.
How is Russian train production going?
I mean can they replace those cars and engine quickly?
Or will that take a while?
It would not surprise me in the least if there was a stockpile of soviet-era trains and cars somewhere and we start seeing coal powered engines seeing use going forward.
When they claim that they're able to make a drone/missile that's capable of carrying a 30-50kg warhead, travel at 700kmh for over 1 hour, also features some level of INS navigation and all of this for less than 200k USD...
...some level of my brain is going "Man. There is no way they can make something like that that cheap. They're fucking with me. This is just a cover for their broom-riding Ukrainian night witches dropping 30kg bomb backpacks."
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Then there are the engine drivers, they would need hundreds of new drivers, because the pay is shit and many have left to sign military contracts or work in the military industry, making life shit for the ones still there, burning them out and increasing the risk of accidents. Also a downward spiral, and every loss of an experienced engine driver etc. etc.
So like most things in Russia, things are shit and slowly heading towards a collapse with no improvement in sight. Will the Russian railway system collapse in 2025? Probably not. 2026? 2027? Maybe? Things are definitely going to get worse though. It is not the rocks solid juggernaut it was in Soviet times.