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American Primaries: How dumb are the Democrats?

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  • HarrierHarrier The Star Spangled Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Some sort of thing in the San Francisco Chronicle.
    By the numbers: California's twin presidential primaries may be much tighter than polls have suggested, with both Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama making late surges, according to new tracking data.

    The numbers are part of a nightly tracking poll being done by the anti-Indian-gaming initiative campaign, which has included a question on the presidential primaries.

    Separate samplings of 300 Republican voters taken Thursday and Sunday found Romney had gained five points from earlier in the week and pulled into a dead heat with John McCain. Each had about 25 percent, and those figures held up Monday night. But then that was before McCain's big Florida win Tuesday.

    On the Democratic side, the combined results of three nightly samplings of 400 different voters - for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday - found Hillary Rodham Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and John Edwards at 12 percent.

    But when taken alone, Sunday's tracking - just a day after Obama's big win in the South Carolina primary - had Obama leading Clinton, 35 percent to 32 percent, with Edwards' share growing to 16 percent. And pretty much the same numbers came up Monday.

    One caveat: A prominent political consultant following the numbers emphasizes that while a single night's tracking isn't considered statistically reliable, it does show movement and direction.

    Any way you slice it, the source says, the presidential race here is definitely heating up.
    I don't know what that all really means, or whether it applies for all of California or just San Francisco, but it has Obama close to Clinton in numbers, so I think it's a good sign.

    Harrier on
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  • TheMarshalTheMarshal Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    So when a candidate drops out of the race before a given state's primary, does he/she remain on the ballot in that state? If not, what happens to the absentee ballots for the people who voted for someone who's no longer running?

    TheMarshal on
  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    I would hope that those who voted before a candidate dropped through absentee get a do-over before the polls close.

    Hoz on
  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    I still think Obama and Hillary should be running mates.... it'll never happen, but still.

    AbsoluteZero on
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  • HarrierHarrier The Star Spangled Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Harrier on
    I don't wanna kill anybody. I don't like bullies. I don't care where they're from.
  • an_altan_alt Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Derrick wrote: »
    Rudy endorses McCain.

    ... and McCain's poll numbers started falling immediately.

    an_alt on
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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Apparently one of my friends got called last week by an Obama supporter as part of the GOTV thing. He was already planning on voting Obama, so he didn't mind, and said that he appreciated that it was an actual person instead of a recording. Does anyone know if the recordings are being employed anywhere?

    Jragghen on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Is California a winner take all state?

    Couscous on
  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    an_alt wrote: »
    Derrick wrote: »
    Rudy endorses McCain.

    ... and McCain's poll numbers started falling immediately.

    Sabotage!

    AbsoluteZero on
    cs6f034fsffl.jpg
  • HarrierHarrier The Star Spangled Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    titmouse wrote: »
    Is California a winner take all state?
    I don't believe so. I know it's not on the Democratic side, and it may not be on the Republican side.

    Harrier on
    I don't wanna kill anybody. I don't like bullies. I don't care where they're from.
  • geckahngeckahn Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    No state is winner take all for the democrats.

    geckahn on
  • GoslingGosling Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, Probably Watertown, WIRegistered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Harrier wrote: »
    titmouse wrote: »
    Is California a winner take all state?
    I don't believe so. I know it's not on the Democratic side, and it may not be on the Republican side.
    The GOP is winner-take-all by district. Don't know if that's state or congressional. There's also a winner-take-all bonus for the guy that gets the most districts.

    Gosling on
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  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    geckahn wrote: »
    No state is winner take all for the democrats.

    So winning or losing by a point or two won't make much of a difference except for propaganda purposes.

    Couscous on
  • nosnibornosnibor Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    On votes for lame-duck candidates

    (sarcasm)Depends on the party. If it's the Republicans, they just burn them. If it's the Democrats, then the delegates are assigned to whichever candidate is approved by Grand Master George Soros. (sarcasm)

    I live in a rural county that votes exclusively by absentee ballot, and has done so as long as I have been of voting age. I honestly don't see the attachment that so many people have to physical polling stations. Just because it's always been done that way doesn't make it a great idea. Kind of like college football and the bowl system. There are better ways of doing things, but the people who are in a position to make changes are too attached to the nostalgia of the old way of doing things.

    I generally vote at least 1-2 weeks before an official election day in order to avoid being somehow swayed by last-minute campaign shenanigans. Also I haven't voted in a primary since they forced people to register party affiliation.

    nosnibor on
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  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    AbsoluteZero on
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  • geckahngeckahn Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    titmouse wrote: »
    geckahn wrote: »
    No state is winner take all for the democrats.

    So winning or losing by a point or two won't make much of a difference except for propaganda purposes.

    Correct. In Nevada Obama actually won more delegates then Hillary because he did better then her in the rural areas. I think that had something to do with the fact that it was a caucus system.

    geckahn on
  • geckahngeckahn Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    This Tuesday. 22 states vote.

    geckahn on
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    titmouse wrote: »
    geckahn wrote: »
    No state is winner take all for the democrats.

    So winning or losing by a point or two won't make much of a difference except for propaganda purposes.
    California *has* to have upwards of 200 delegates. That, plus the bonus for winning, means a point or two can make a big difference.

    Thanatos on
  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    It has 400 something.

    Hoz on
  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    geckahn wrote: »
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    This Tuesday. 22 states vote.

    Vote for what?

    AbsoluteZero on
    cs6f034fsffl.jpg
  • geckahngeckahn Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    geckahn wrote: »
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    This Tuesday. 22 states vote.

    Vote for what?

    Are you serious? for the primaries.

    geckahn on
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    geckahn wrote: »
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    This Tuesday. 22 states vote.

    Vote for what?

    What thread are you in?

    Jragghen on
  • DrakeonDrakeon Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    February 5th. It's the day that 20+ states all vote at once, including California, New York, and many others. Basically its the day that decides whos going to be running for each party.

    Drakeon on
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  • redxredx I(x)=2(x)+1 whole numbersRegistered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Hoz wrote: »
    The "obama muslim" search gives encouraging results. A lot of people are confused, and they're searching for the truth and finding it thanks to those evil bastards at google.

    ehh.. not evil at google. I like google for the most part. They are great as far as massive cooperate juggernauts go.

    just that of those people for whom information is 5 seconds away, and religion is an issue for, it still 2 of the 3 to searches. That means, there are a lot of folk who it is an issue for, and don't necessarily have ready access to the answer.

    there have been scandals and shit about fox lying about it, and it being all over the meta news shows.

    still, an awful lot of people who seem to care about it are ignorant. bothers me. Cause, I really think there is a good chance he is going to lose.

    It's got to be a really really common search to be up that high.

    edit: actually, no, not really
    not even a little bit actually.

    redx on
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  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Durr... nevermind. Someone hit me in the head.

    AbsoluteZero on
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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    geckahn wrote: »
    What the hell is Super Tuesday?

    This Tuesday. 22 states vote.

    Vote for what?

    Vote for who will have his or her past dragged through the mud.

    Couscous on
  • HarrierHarrier The Star Spangled Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Jragghen wrote: »
    On Super Tuesday? That strikes me as a little late to be having a town hall meeting. Unless she's looking ahead to the other contests.

    Harrier on
    I don't wanna kill anybody. I don't like bullies. I don't care where they're from.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    It should read on Super Tuesday Eve.

    enlightenedbum on
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  • HarrierHarrier The Star Spangled Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    So how's that going to work? Is she using webcams and stuff?

    And what could the effect be?

    Harrier on
    I don't wanna kill anybody. I don't like bullies. I don't care where they're from.
  • nosnibornosnibor Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    I realized the other day the Obama religion thing was more widespread than I thought.

    Mom(who doesn't really follow politics): This Obama guy scares me. Did you know when he was sworn into Congress..
    Me(interrupting): That's bullshit. Someone is lying to you. He's a Christian, he's just got a Muslim-sounding name.
    Mom: Oh. Are you sure, because so-and-so told me that...
    Me: No. It's Internet garbage. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about Obama, religion is not one of them.

    nosnibor on
    When you're a spy, it's a good idea to give away your trade secrets in a voiceover on a TV show.
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Also, to the question of California's delegates:

    241 district level delegates, 81 at large delegates and 48 PLEO delegates (this is what goes to the popular vote winner, I believe), and 71 superdelegates.

    So in other words, popular vote in California gives almost as many delegates as what's been assigned in every state so far combined, superdelegates excluded.

    Jragghen on
  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    nosnibor wrote: »
    I realized the other day the Obama religion thing was more widespread than I thought.

    Mom(who doesn't really follow politics): This Obama guy scares me. Did you know when he was sworn into Congress..
    Me(interrupting): That's bullshit. Someone is lying to you. He's a Christian, he's just got a Muslim-sounding name.
    Mom: Oh. Are you sure, because so-and-so told me that...
    Me: No. It's Internet garbage. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about Obama, religion is not one of them.

    :| What the hell difference does it make what religion he is? I mean, I could understand if he was a Scientologist, but sheesh. I think Americans can stop demonizing Muslims any day now...

    AbsoluteZero on
    cs6f034fsffl.jpg
  • TarranonTarranon Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    nosnibor wrote: »
    I realized the other day the Obama religion thing was more widespread than I thought.

    Mom(who doesn't really follow politics): This Obama guy scares me. Did you know when he was sworn into Congress..
    Me(interrupting): That's bullshit. Someone is lying to you. He's a Christian, he's just got a Muslim-sounding name.
    Mom: Oh. Are you sure, because so-and-so told me that...
    Me: No. It's Internet garbage. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about Obama, religion is not one of them.

    :| What the hell difference does it make what religion he is? I mean, I could understand if he was a Scientologist, but sheesh. I think Americans can stop demonizing Muslims any day now...

    Are you kidding? We're still at the point where your average joe considers himself a progressive if he's willing to admit that not all muslims are waiting to destory America.

    Tarranon on
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  • HarrierHarrier The Star Spangled Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    nosnibor wrote: »
    I realized the other day the Obama religion thing was more widespread than I thought.

    Mom(who doesn't really follow politics): This Obama guy scares me. Did you know when he was sworn into Congress..
    Me(interrupting): That's bullshit. Someone is lying to you. He's a Christian, he's just got a Muslim-sounding name.
    Mom: Oh. Are you sure, because so-and-so told me that...
    Me: No. It's Internet garbage. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about Obama, religion is not one of them.

    :| What the hell difference does it make what religion he is? I mean, I could understand if he was a Scientologist, but sheesh. I think Americans can stop demonizing Muslims any day now...
    While I agree with your larger point, the e-mails are a problem because they're blatant lies about him.

    Harrier on
    I don't wanna kill anybody. I don't like bullies. I don't care where they're from.
  • nosnibornosnibor Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    nosnibor wrote: »
    I realized the other day the Obama religion thing was more widespread than I thought.

    Mom(who doesn't really follow politics): This Obama guy scares me. Did you know when he was sworn into Congress..
    Me(interrupting): That's bullshit. Someone is lying to you. He's a Christian, he's just got a Muslim-sounding name.
    Mom: Oh. Are you sure, because so-and-so told me that...
    Me: No. It's Internet garbage. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about Obama, religion is not one of them.

    :| What the hell difference does it make what religion he is? I mean, I could understand if he was a Scientologist, but sheesh. I think Americans can stop demonizing Muslims any day now...

    To people like my parents, it makes a lot of difference. I know I can't convince them that religion doesn't really matter, but at least I can point out when someone is trying to use their fears against them. And I think the entire world can stop demonizing Americans any day now.

    nosnibor on
    When you're a spy, it's a good idea to give away your trade secrets in a voiceover on a TV show.
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Harrier wrote: »
    nosnibor wrote: »
    I realized the other day the Obama religion thing was more widespread than I thought.

    Mom(who doesn't really follow politics): This Obama guy scares me. Did you know when he was sworn into Congress..
    Me(interrupting): That's bullshit. Someone is lying to you. He's a Christian, he's just got a Muslim-sounding name.
    Mom: Oh. Are you sure, because so-and-so told me that...
    Me: No. It's Internet garbage. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about Obama, religion is not one of them.
    :| What the hell difference does it make what religion he is? I mean, I could understand if he was a Scientologist, but sheesh. I think Americans can stop demonizing Muslims any day now...
    While I agree with your larger point, the e-mails are a problem because they're blatant lies about him.
    The e-mails are a problem because of the retarded bigots who believe them.

    Thanatos on
  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    Sure, right after they stop demonizing "illegal immigrants" (that's the Republican word for Mexicans).

    wwtMask on
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  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited January 2008
    nosnibor wrote: »
    And I think the entire world can stop demonizing Americans any day now.
    Yeah, just as soon as we stop deserving it.

    Thanatos on
This discussion has been closed.