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[Wii] Shiren the Wanderer coming, courtesy of Atlus

elkataselkatas Registered User regular
edited June 2009 in Games and Technology
screenshot_01.jpg

And things are getting better! I need to do Rockman dance now. :)

Hypnotically inclined.
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Posts

  • pslong9pslong9 Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    YES!

    This is happy, happy news.

    pslong9 on
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  • elkataselkatas Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    pslong9 wrote: »
    FUCK YES!

    I'm just amazed they decided to take the risk. Xseed would have been interested in the game, but said that localizing it would be too risky as console games don't more niche than this.

    elkatas on
    Hypnotically inclined.
  • UncleSporkyUncleSporky Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    Well that's really cool looking.

    I just wish Japan knew how to make western-style roguelikes. I want DnD stats and full equipment for every part of my body, not just a sword that I'm afraid to bring with me because I'll die and lose what I spent building over seven runs. I want bigger and more varied maps with doors and chests and a lot more item types, I want to be able to choose my race and class, and I want to be able to learn spells. I want to have a world map and be able to go anywhere, not take a linear path from start to finish.

    UncleSporky on
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  • SlayerVinSlayerVin Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    elkatas wrote: »
    pslong9 wrote: »
    FUCK YES!

    I'm just amazed they decided to take the risk. Xseed would have been interested in the game, but said that localizing it would be too risky as console games don't get more niche than this.

    You just described Atlus' entire business model.

    They know what they localize is always going to be niche, so they plan and promote accordingly. Persona 3 by their standards was a rousing success and I'm not even sure it broke 200k units sold.

    SlayerVin on
    BE ATTITUDE FOR GAINS!
  • elkataselkatas Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    They know what they localize is always going to be niche, so they plan and promote accordingly. Persona 3 by their standards was a rousing success and I'm not even sure it broke 200k units sold.

    U-hu, but Shiren sold 5000 copies last time.

    elkatas on
    Hypnotically inclined.
  • UncleSporkyUncleSporky Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    elkatas wrote: »
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    They know what they localize is always going to be niche, so they plan and promote accordingly. Persona 3 by their standards was a rousing success and I'm not even sure it broke 200k units sold.

    U-hu, but Shiren sold 5000 copies last time.

    A good fantasy Wii game has a lot less competition, though.

    UncleSporky on
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  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    I couldn't beat this on DS.

    Cantido on
    3DS Friendcode 5413-1311-3767
  • SlayerVinSlayerVin Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    elkatas wrote: »
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    They know what they localize is always going to be niche, so they plan and promote accordingly. Persona 3 by their standards was a rousing success and I'm not even sure it broke 200k units sold.

    U-hu, but Shiren sold 5000 copies last time.

    Yeesh... that is low...

    Sporky's right though, another RPG on the DS, no matter how fun is up against stiff and popular competition.

    The promotion for it was miserable too. I didn't even hear about it until a couple months ago, coupled with all of the reviews that vehemently rail against the entire genre handicapped it from the get-go.

    That and the box art was ugly.

    I have a really good feeling that Atlus will not fuck this up like Sega did.

    SlayerVin on
    BE ATTITUDE FOR GAINS!
  • ZerokkuZerokku Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    elkatas wrote: »
    pslong9 wrote: »
    FUCK YES!

    I'm just amazed they decided to take the risk. Xseed would have been interested in the game, but said that localizing it would be too risky as console games don't get more niche than this.

    You just described Atlus' entire business model.

    They know what they localize is always going to be niche, so they plan and promote accordingly. Persona 3 by their standards was a rousing success and I'm not even sure it broke 200k units sold.

    While I'm not complaining myself since I tend to love their games, I always sit here and wonder how the hell atlus stays afloat. Their games, liked you said, pretty much define "niche".

    Zerokku on
  • elevatureelevature Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    This is the best thing to come out of E3. I am considering hugging my Wii right now, and I haven't felt that way in a long, long time.

    Atlus, I love you.

    elevature on
  • RichardTauberRichardTauber Kvlt Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    Great. Maybe it'll sell 6000 copies!

    RichardTauber on
  • earthwormadamearthwormadam ancient crust Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    So what the hell is it? An image that works, or a link to something would be swell.

    earthwormadam on
  • elkataselkatas Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    So what the hell is it? An image that works, or a link to something would be swell.

    Sorry, I don't have image stored. Shiren the Wanderer is very, very hard roguelike that has been very popular in the Japan. There has been three games in the series, and only DS one has been localized. PA actually had pretty long thread dedicated to it.

    elkatas on
    Hypnotically inclined.
  • ArcticMonkeyArcticMonkey Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    So what the hell is it? An image that works, or a link to something would be swell.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwY91fhP2qs
    It's part of the Mystery Dungeon series which includes Chocobo's Dungeon and Pokemon Mystery Dungeon.

    ArcticMonkey on
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  • UltimanecatUltimanecat Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    Ultimanecat on
    SteamID : same as my PA forum name
  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    edited June 2009
    It's part of the Mystery Dungeon series which includes Pokemon Mystery Dungeon.

    However, unlike Pokemon Mystery Dungeon it doesn't suck.

    It is, in fact, awesome.

    Also to answer UncleSporky, while I can (sometimes) appreciate a big sprawling roguelike I love the tightness of Shiren, by paring down the options into sword, shield, herb, scroll, staff and jar I feel it paradoxically opens up more options as I never get 'lost' in the possibilities.

    Alistair Hutton on
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  • eelektrikeelektrik Southern CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    edited June 2009
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    I bought Chocobo's Dungeon myself not expecting this to come stateside. It was disappointing after the awesomeness that was Shiren on DS. I love Atlus for having the balls to bring this over.

    Also, anyone interested can still probably find copies of Shiren the Wanderer for DS in the bargain bins at Best Buy, I always see a few in there, last I saw it was 14.99. Its well worth it.

    eelektrik on
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  • inthegrayinthegray Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    elkatas wrote: »
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    They know what they localize is always going to be niche, so they plan and promote accordingly. Persona 3 by their standards was a rousing success and I'm not even sure it broke 200k units sold.

    U-hu, but Shiren sold 5000 copies last time.

    just curious where you got this number, as i don't believe i've ever seen any details on how much this sold, other than it was absurdly low.

    inthegray on
  • elkataselkatas Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    inthegray wrote: »
    just curious where you got this number, as i don't believe i've ever seen any details on how much this sold, other than it was absurdly low.

    It was leaked months ago on GAF. Probably in NPD thread.

    elkatas on
    Hypnotically inclined.
  • SlayerVinSlayerVin Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    elkatas wrote: »
    inthegray wrote: »
    just curious where you got this number, as i don't believe i've ever seen any details on how much this sold, other than it was absurdly low.

    It was leaked months ago on GAF. Probably in NPD thread.

    http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=17380&region=All

    Either this chart's wrong, or people on GAF don't understand what .48m means.

    SlayerVin on
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  • elkataselkatas Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »

    First, we are talking about US sales. Secondly, VGChartz pulls its numbers from its ass. They are not based on any real numbers, just on guesses.

    elkatas on
    Hypnotically inclined.
  • FalstaffFalstaff Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    So what does this game have that the DS version didn't? I consider the handheld version to be perfect, (and trust me, I don't use the term lightly) but without the ability to snap open my DS and play anywhere, I honestly can't see myself even enjoying such a simple formula on a console.

    Edit: to clarify and gush a little I'll just say that, in my opinion, Shiren the Wanderer for the DS did everything it set out to do perfectly. Then, just when you begin to fully understand its ins and outs, to appreciate the challenge of pitting your intellect, creativity and careful planning against fate itself, it reveals a "post-game" that eclipses what you had already assumed to be a very full and enjoyable (if excruciating at times) experience. 11/10.

    Falstaff on
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  • SlicerSlicer Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    Falstaff wrote: »
    So what does this game have that the DS version didn't? I consider the handheld version to be perfect, (trust me, I don't use the term lightly) but without the ability to snap open my DS and play anywhere, I honestly can't see myself even enjoying a simple console roguelike.

    Same. Much as I enjoy the DS game, if I had to sit down in front of a TV to play it I'd probably just grab one of the many free roguelikes available on the PC instead.

    Slicer on
  • slash000slash000 Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    Either this chart's wrong, or people on GAF don't understand what .48m means.

    The chart is wrong. VGchartz is notorious for being way off with numbers that we don't get actual NPD/CT/GFK/MC numbers from.

    In other words, when there's not reliable info out there available, they make up a number. A pure guess based on lots of speculation and estimation but still unfounded.

    They are notorious for being way off because, if you actually compare their numbers for obscure software sales to NPD when NPD becomes available, they are often found to be off many times over. Sometimes they'll post 200k for a game that only sold 50k. Sometimes they'll post 100k for a game that sold 300k. Seriously it's that bad. They try to go back and correct their data afterwards but they've been found to overlook corrections many times.


    The only times they're spot on is when there is actual publicized NPD data that can back it up. In other words, NPD data that you and I and anyone else who watches has access to. In other words still, if you cite sales, why not just cite NPD directly?

    The answer is usually - because I can't find any NPD data on Game X! But VGchartz has a number!
    That's the problem. If there's no NPD data available on it, publicly, then citing VGchartz is equivalent to citing some armchair analyst's best guess. Pure guesswork.


    They're good for general console hardware historical data at best and nothing more. But even then, there are better sites that track and source straight from NPD without the taint of guesswork that's been edited and reedited.


    VGchartz is terrible.



    The worst part? Periodically VGchartz makes a claim about a game's sales. And then some unknowing gaming site picks up the number and publishes "zomg Game X sold # number copies!" And then the publisher is forced to waste time and resources making public statements correcting that idiocy. I know Capcom has had to do it and a few other publishers have had to as well.


    damn vgchartz..

    slash000 on
  • SlayerVinSlayerVin Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    Disappointing. Why even bother presenting the information then? And why does anyone even use the site if they're notorious for being that off base? If Shiren only sold 5k (in NA) and they're saying it sold 150k, that's a serious error margin... Is there any reliable source out there?

    Going back to Shiren 3 and Atlus, I'm of the mind that marketing can make or break a game's sales, as I'm sure a number of people are. I have high expectations that Atlus will do a better job promoting this title than Sega did with Shiren DS. Their faithful fanbase, paired with the fact that it's an RPG for the Wii will go a pretty long way, I think.

    SlayerVin on
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  • UncleSporkyUncleSporky Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    slash000 wrote: »
    The worst part? Periodically VGchartz makes a claim about a game's sales. And then some unknowing gaming site picks up the number and publishes "zomg Game X sold # number copies!" And then the publisher is forced to waste time and resources making public statements correcting that idiocy. I know Capcom has had to do it and a few other publishers have had to as well.
    That's the best part. Because we learn about sales numbers that we never would've known otherwise.

    UncleSporky on
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  • solsovlysolsovly Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    Same here except Shiren was awesome and Baroque was a terrible piece.

    solsovly on
  • SlayerVinSlayerVin Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    solsovly wrote: »
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    Same here except Shiren was awesome and Baroque was a terrible piece.

    I'm in the same boat.

    That's disappointing about Baroque, though I got Baroque for like $12, so no worries I guess. Still haven't tried it out yet, but I probably will at some point soon. I heard the graphics were absolutely miserable but all the rest of the reviews complained about was the difficulty (typical...). I did buy the ps2 version, which was rated slightly higher than the Wii version, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

    SlayerVin on
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  • UncleSporkyUncleSporky Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    solsovly wrote: »
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    Same here except Shiren was awesome and Baroque was a terrible piece.

    I'm in the same boat.

    That's disappointing about Baroque, though I got Baroque for like $12, so no worries I guess. Still haven't tried it out yet, but I probably will at some point soon. I heard the graphics were absolutely miserable but all the rest of the reviews complained about was the difficulty (typical...). I did buy the ps2 version, which was rated slightly higher than the Wii version, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

    I enjoyed it quite a bit, actually. A good mix of item types and equipment with various augments, and it doesn't look that bad. There's a film grain filter applied that may make it look weird to some, I guess.

    UncleSporky on
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  • RichardTauberRichardTauber Kvlt Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    Well, I've bought two copies of Shiren, so let's start counting, that makes it ... 2 ...

    RichardTauber on
  • solsovlysolsovly Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    solsovly wrote: »
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    Same here except Shiren was awesome and Baroque was a terrible piece.

    I'm in the same boat.

    That's disappointing about Baroque, though I got Baroque for like $12, so no worries I guess. Still haven't tried it out yet, but I probably will at some point soon. I heard the graphics were absolutely miserable but all the rest of the reviews complained about was the difficulty (typical...). I did buy the ps2 version, which was rated slightly higher than the Wii version, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

    I enjoyed it quite a bit, actually. A good mix of item types and equipment with various augments, and it doesn't look that bad. There's a film grain filter applied that may make it look weird to some, I guess.

    Graphics were ok but really bland. It's strange how the 3D graphics felt worse than the typical ascii/tile art of most rogue games.

    The actual items were really boring and combat just felt tedious. I only spent $15 and ended up trading on Goozex for more than $15 worth of points, but I felt incredibly dissapointed at my first console (non ds) roguelike. Especially when you consider how great Shiren was (especially for a SNES game ported to the DS).

    solsovly on
  • slash000slash000 Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    Disappointing. Why even bother presenting the information then?

    Because when VGchartz presents information, even though it's made up / guesstimated, people wind up going there to get numbers because no other numbers exist. Usually they do this innocently, not knowing that, indeed, VGchartz has pulled something out of their butts for many games. Vgchartz does it because they like the website traffic.

    Now, not all of their games are waaaaay off base. You see, some of their guesstimations are based on existing NPD data that is released to the public on a monthly basis. But in such a case, anyone can get those actual NPD numbers with decent googling. If something shows up in NPD top 10 sales for a month, you can get a number for it from NPD, for example. For Europe, there's CT/GFK and for Japan there's MC. Japan is the easiest to get good info on because they release data every week. Europe is the hardest to get accurate data on. So really, the flimsiest data found on VGChartz usually involves their european numbers.

    And why does anyone even use the site if they're notorious for being that off base?
    Because a lot of people don't know that it's so way, way off. When I say notorious, I'm talking about notorious among people that really follow the industry news reasonably closely. If someone doesn't really follow or care about industry sales/finances/etc., then in trying to find sales data for something they could easily fall into the trap of googling for it and winding up only with VGchartz.

    If Shiren only sold 5k (in NA) and they're saying it sold 150k, that's a serious error margin... Is there any reliable source out there?

    I'm not sure where the Shiren 5k number came from. Probably first month NPD. The leaked NPD data I have on Shiren for the Nintendo DS is from January 2009, and it is at 18k for North America. There are a few of us around here that for some odd reason enjoy collecting tidbits of data like this when we can. Unfortunately there's no official NPD link I can give you.

    Often we can snag NPD numbers from other sources that get it leaked from NPD, including sites like Gamasutra and sometimes news sources that squeeze it out of their NPD contacts. That's typically how we get numbers for games that don't hit top 10 npd, like MadWorld or GTA Chinatown, for example. We also sometimes get publishers/developers that come out and publicly state the sales for their games, either for better or worse. That's how we found out that De Blob had sold 700k+, for example.



    If you want to see how bad VGChartz can be, read this article:
    GSW wrote:
    http://www.gamesetwatch.com/2008/06/analysis_what_vgchartz_does_and.php#more
    This is a good article on vgchartz.
    So, let's start with the basics. Most worldwide game charts (of which NPD in North America, Media Create and Enterbrain in Japan, and Chart-Track in England are the most prominent) are compiled by extrapolation from sales figures provided by retailers. Thus, there's no third-party that uses regular access to publisher data on sales to make the charts - all of them take in data from major retailers, and then calculate sales from there.

    This service is sold to major publishers and financial firms for a monthly or yearly subscription, allowing publishers to see how well their competitors are doing. Limited amounts of the data is made available to the public, generally in terms of a top 10, 20, or 50 either weekly or monthly, depending on the territory. Obviously, if the pay service was sufficiently 'off' from the internal numbers the publisher was getting, they would not want to pay for it.

    But what VGChartz claims to do is a weekly estimate of every game published in every territory - including Japan, North America, and the particularly difficult to estimate Europe (there's no subscription-based pan-European chart right now, due to the fragmented nature of the market) - and offer all of that data for free. Which is extremely impressive, let's face it, because it enables them to provide real-time updated information for the entire market.

    But how accurate is it? If I was, say, writing a story for the New York Times, what proof do I have that the 'correct' numbers are displayed on the site? Obviously, as mentioned above, all sales figures are by necessity estimates, and that's the crux of the issue - we'll get back to that later. But I asked Brett Walton his methodology, and he gave me the following, quite impressive answer:

    "The methodology we use for all of our charts in all regions is the same and our data is arrived at by a combination of the following:

    - Sampled direct sell-through data
    - Industry knowledge and experience - applying past trends in terms of marketshares, regional breakdowns, casual vs hardcore and so on
    - plenty of statistical analysis, regression calculations, market projections
    - Contact with industry figures - buy-side analysts (such as Pachter / Divnich), sell-side analysts who work with us on specific products / projects, manufacturers who work with us to project sales of their key titles
    - Retail checks - we have a team who talk to stores and estimate shipment figures for low-stock and hard to find items which we struggle to track with our normal data samples.

    Exactly how we get from these various sources of data to final figures differs from game to game and console to console and our exact methodologies are confidential for obvious reasons."

    Essentially, Walton is saying that he uses a number of high quality factors to produce his estimates, but can't mention any of the retail sources, or companies that VGChartz works with. Well, fair enough. But did you realize that VGChartz estimates can retroactively change by 100% or more based on 'official' chart results?

    Iron Man & Retrofitting

    One of the most unexpected results in the recent NPD charts for May was the appearance of the poorly reviewed Iron Man game for PlayStation 2 in the Top 10 of the charts, with 130,000 copies sold.

    Thinking about it carefully, with the movie rocketing to unexpected success during the month, it would make sense that the game would sell well. But it's not the kind of game that you're likely to estimate in the Top 10 - and indeed VGChartz did not, estimating 53,000 units in sales, according to VGChartz staffers.

    But what's surprising is that Iron Man for PlayStation 2 has been adjusted in its official VGChartz page so that its first four weeks of sales (encompassing May) add up to 111,000 units.

    Clearly, these numbers have been changed after NPD debuted, showing a couple of things. Firstly, if you were a journalist, you could have cited VGChartz as saying Iron Man was a flop on PS2, selling half as many units - when NPD vibrantly disagrees. In addition, and more interestingly, it shows that VGChartz trusts NPD over their own prediction data by retroactively changing things to better match.

    Apparently, this has happened before, because in a FAQ about North American VGChartz numbers, Brett Walton addresses this precise subject:

    "Do we adjust our data? Not as such. Do we adjust our methods then? Yes - which will of course alter some data. On what basis? If we believe that a particular data set differs significantly from other sources of data (data released into the public domain by tracking firms, manufacturers, analysts) then we do re-check our data and make adjustments to the methods / scaling factors used.

    This happens on a fairly infrequent basis - less often than we adjust due to internal data changes - and is something that every tracking firm and analyst does. I personally have no issues with "benchmarking" our data from time to time against other sources of data - as long as it has been made public."

    In other words, if they are sufficiently out, then VGChartz will retrofit their results - either weekly or monthly - to conform to the more 'official' data. But they won't credit those firms as the source of the retrofitting - they'll just bump their numbers around without saying why on the site.

    As a result, we get to what VGChartz actually is - a strange mixture of a prediction market (as consensus prediction site TheSimExchange is) and a retroactive, but non-credited reflection of charts that have historically been known for having more concrete data.

    Where's The Beef?

    OK, so you might say - and a lot of VGChartz' forumgoers do - what's the problem with that? If VGChartz gets close enough, and can adjust if it's too far off when top-end data comes out, then why would there be a problem?

    Well, because you then have a moving target for checking/reporting purposes, and particularly because there's a high probability that VGChartz figures will be significantly wrong for those titles on the lower end of sales - those that lurk outside the top of the charts.

    In other words, for those high-selling titles, VGChartz is checking against public data, and they will change their estimates if they are majorly off. Most of the time, they are quite close compared to the worldwide charts. That's because VGChartz is - like services such as The SimExchange - using common sense, Internet buzz, real-time data such as Amazon.com and analyst commentary to synthesize a sensible estimate.

    But in covering all games, they are doing readers a disservice, because it's clear from the Iron Man example that they simply do not have the direct sale retail contacts to extrapolate unexpected but nonetheless true results. And if a title spikes but is outside public data, VGChartz will never catch it.

    And the amount of concrete data available to VGChartz is low - as is freely admitted in a recent interview, VGChartz had 2-3% of the North American market as a sample at the time, whereas by estimate, NPD might have 60-65%. If this 2-3% was clean and canonical, this might not matter - but how do you explain the big Iron Man discrepancy, if so? Wouldn't VGChartz' retail sources have picked it up too?

    So, let's take a step back and concentrate on some games that have sold in significant numbers, but have never made it into the Top 20 in North America for a significant time.

    One good example is the Ben 10 series of games from D3 Publisher. VGChartz has the series listed at 590,000 sold worldwide to date. But when Gamasutra interviewed D3's Yoji Takenaka last week, he specifically said: "Ben 10 is selling well over a million units right now, since last Christmas."

    So sure, Takenaka could be conflating shipped with sold - making the number closer to the estimate. But that's an awfully large discrepancy - one that most people won't care about because it's not a prominent or critically acclaimed game, and there's no way to refute VGChartz on it, but a discrepancy nonetheless.

    Unfortunately, we don't have lifetime NPD data for this set of titles - but in researching this story, we spoke to a third party who had access to NPD lifetime to date sales that are not normally disclosed to the public.

    We picked two titles released for one of the next-gen consoles over the previous year, neither of which had been in the public NPD charts for more than a month, leaving VGChartz to make estimates based on their own sources on their selling curve over time.

    Well, somewhat spectacularly, in both cases, NPD and VGChartz disagreed by about 100%. In one case, VGChartz was citing 300,000 sales, whereas NPD had the game at 150,000 units. And in the other case, it was inversed - NPD had the game at around 200,000, but VGChartz had it at 100,000.

    If VGChartz knew of this discrepancy, would they have retroactively changed their data? Probably so, given the Iron Man example. And this is essentially the problem - that with very limited access to retail numbers, especially over time, the downward curve of a game's sales becomes essentially a guessing game for VGChartz, whereas services like Media Create and NPD merge in greater real sales data to calculate their curve at much higher levels.

    [Here's one more public datapoint, this time referencing NPD, but uncorrected by VGChartz, since I presume they didn't notice it or consider it important enough. Variety recently revealed that Brash's Alvin & The Chipmunks game had sold 286,000 copies since launch, according to NPD. VGChartz has the combined SKUs listed at just 110,000 units.]

    Conclusion

    Let's be clear. I think the concept behind VGChartz is a wonderful one - freely available data to let everyone see how well games are selling. And it's absolutely true that all data is an estimate - not even major services such as Media Create and NPD get it exactly right.

    But VGChartz is staffed by amateurs working in their spare time to estimate sales, and while they are perfectly smart, they are much closer to the SimExchange model of estimation than the Media Create method.

    What I'd like to see is some clear labeling of what is estimated data, and what is extrapolated or changed from companies that have greater access to retail sales. And not only does VGChartz have no intention of doing this, it is starting to claim major scoops based on data which, in some cases, estimates entire territories without any real data.

    In particular, the site widely and loudly disseminated to the media its worldwide Day 1 Metal Gear Solid 4 sales, explaining:

    "VGChartz can exclusively reveal that first day sales of Metal Gear Solid 4, released on June 12th 2008 in most major markets worldwide, were an impressive 1.3 million units."

    The headline actually originally read 1.5 million, but was changed by a not insignificant 200,000 units after publication. Even more surprisingly, the figure debuted just 48 hours after the launch of the game - not a lot of time to compile data from retail sources.

    I asked Brett Walton about the change, and why this figure was not advertised a little more prominently as an estimate, given the short amount of time to get real data, and he explained:

    "It was based on first day Japan sales, first day America sales, and from that projecting for Europe / others which we didn't get direct day 1 for. We projected Europe would be ~20% higher than America given the larger install base and based on previous game releases, but it turned out at 430k for the week vs 510k for America - whereas we estimated it at more like 600k given America and Japan figures."

    Firstly, Walton freely admits the numbers were based on zero actual data for the entire European market, just pure extrapolation. It's also very unclear how far the estimates for launch were based on real retail data for Japan and North America.

    It's a reasonable figure, of course, because the VGChartz folks are smart people. But it's not a real figure. It's a educated guesstimate, and it's much more of an estimate than the subsequent Chart Track data for the UK, for example. Walton clarified due to my complaints:

    "So yes, maybe we should be clearer with the word estimate, especially in early PR and this has been reflected in comments back to the guy who wrote the story. From now on we will label day 1 sales as preliminary for that very reason."

    But that doesn't really change the main problem with the site. There's a place for a resource like VGChartz, but it'd be a site that clearly labels the source of its estimates (whether it be Chart-Track, NPD, Media Create - even if some of those sources have poor data dissemination and a fractious relationship with the media) and then labels which are its own estimates based on its own industry knowledge and whatever channel checks it has.

    But if I was a writer or analyst trying to extrapolate significant information from the resource, especially regarding those titles which don't chart regularly, given the major discrepancies with other figures shown here, I would not recommend it.

    [UPDATE: Someone has just pointed out to me that Brett Walton has accused me of reprinting a 'confidential email conversation' for this article. In the course of my discussion with Brett, I specifically asked him if our emails were on the record. He replied: "I have no issues reproducing the discussion - needs a tidy up of course." As far as I'm concerned, issues like this are symptomatic of why VGChartz cannot be trusted.]


    Going back to Shiren 3 and Atlus, I'm of the mind that marketing can make or break a game's sales, as I'm sure a number of people are. I have high expectations that Atlus will do a better job promoting this title than Sega did with Shiren DS. Their faithful fanbase, paired with the fact that it's an RPG for the Wii will go a pretty long way, I think.

    I think Atlus has a good following. Enough to get average Atlus sales for this. So I can see them pulling around or just under 50k sales for this game. Which is not atypical for atlus titles like this.

    slash000 on
  • RichardTauberRichardTauber Kvlt Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    slash000 wrote: »
    Snip

    Awesome post! Great read, indeed.

    RichardTauber on
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    SlayerVin wrote: »
    solsovly wrote: »
    I bought Baroque because I had a feeling this game would never be localized...

    I would have much rather had this. Oh well, Atlus deserves as much of my money as they see fit.

    Same here except Shiren was awesome and Baroque was a terrible piece.

    I'm in the same boat.

    That's disappointing about Baroque, though I got Baroque for like $12, so no worries I guess. Still haven't tried it out yet, but I probably will at some point soon. I heard the graphics were absolutely miserable but all the rest of the reviews complained about was the difficulty (typical...). I did buy the ps2 version, which was rated slightly higher than the Wii version, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

    I enjoyed it quite a bit, actually. A good mix of item types and equipment with various augments, and it doesn't look that bad. There's a film grain filter applied that may make it look weird to some, I guess.

    Baroque was a great game. and also, my only successful thread in G&T hehe

    Xaquin on
  • SlayerVinSlayerVin Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    slash000 wrote: »
    Snip

    Awesome post! Great read, indeed.

    Agreed. I'll have to take the time to fully read that article.

    Re: Baroque, I decided against playing it right after putting down Shiren so I wouldn't compare the two as much, knowing how much I loved Shiren. I'm sure I still will, but hopefully not too much. I'm looking forward to starting it, the story/world sounds interesting to me and I like roguelikes, so... hopefully it doesn't disappoint.

    SlayerVin on
    BE ATTITUDE FOR GAINS!
  • IdolNinjaIdolNinja Registered User regular
    edited June 2009
    Falstaff wrote: »
    So what does this game have that the DS version didn't? I consider the handheld version to be perfect, (and trust me, I don't use the term lightly) but without the ability to snap open my DS and play anywhere, I honestly can't see myself even enjoying such a simple formula on a console.

    Edit: to clarify and gush a little I'll just say that, in my opinion, Shiren the Wanderer for the DS did everything it set out to do perfectly. Then, just when you begin to fully understand its ins and outs, to appreciate the challenge of pitting your intellect, creativity and careful planning against fate itself, it reveals a "post-game" that eclipses what you had already assumed to be a very full and enjoyable (if excruciating at times) experience. 11/10.

    Shiren DS was perfect in every way and one of my favorite games of all time. I am definitely looking forward to Shiren 3 for the Wii. Hopefully someone will pickup and localize the Shiren 2 DS remake as well.

    IdolNinja on
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