Seems likely to me that Hamas is going to curb attacks for a while in response to US/Israel tensions. Its the perfect time to do it too, especially if they intend to declare statehood later on like rumors say and can point back to a long period of no attacks, Israel won't have any real rhetoric to throw at them.
Sadly, rhetorics never mattered in this conflict anyway. Israel will continue to do as they please, forcing violent reactions where necessary. Hell, I doubt it's beneath them to disguise some of their own men as arabs and stage an "attack".
Ferrus on
I would like to pause for a moment, to talk about my penis.
My penis is like a toddler. A toddler—who is a perfectly normal size for his age—on a long road trip to what he thinks is Disney World. My penis is excited because he hasn’t been to Disney World in a long, long time, but remembers a time when he used to go every day. So now the penis toddler is constantly fidgeting, whining “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? How about now? Now? How about... now?”
And Disney World is nowhere in sight.
Sadly, rhetorics never mattered in this conflict anyway. Israel will continue to do as they please, forcing violent reactions where necessary. Hell, I doubt it's beneath them to disguise some of their own men as arabs and stage an "attack".
I've been reading a lot of recent articles on this tonight and I'm getting the picture that the US is going to try and force some sort of settlement here. Obama has given Israel and Palestine a deadline for autumn to come up with a plan or they'll simply forcefeed them one with a two state solution. I have a strong feeling Hamas is going to try for this because of the cooling relations between the US and Israel and thats giving them some hope of a resolution, Bush kinda/sorta told Israel that the US would support their annexation of jewish settled territory but Obama's told them this is a no go.
So basicly I think Hamas will stop rocket attacks until Autumn, declare statehood and the US will recognize them. What happens after that is up in the air though, Obama is unlikely to allow Israel to annex east Jerusalem but its going to get really fucking messy once Palestine invokes the right of return.
Of course this might all be wishful thinking on my part but I'm hopeful Obama has the balls to do this.
The demographics in Israel, which is going to mean that in some years, Palestinians will form 30% of the people in Israel and 70-80% of the people in the region.
Generation change in the West. When the last person who was alive during the Holocaust is gone and most of the Baby Boomers suffer from Alzheimers (or are dead) I'm guessing we don't have as much tolerance for Israel's bullshit anymore.
Time, which means that the other Middle East nations will grow stronger in economical, diplomatic, political and military means, and that there will be actual democracies there which to support over Israel who also don't violate the strategies of U.S. in the region. Also, the growth of China as a world power and economy (who have absolutely no reason to side with Israel).
I don't say it's going to end perfectly. But if (or when) Israel does something insanely crazy (like some of scenarios you mentioned), I don't think the world will just stand by this time. Even with all the shit experienced by Palestinians, the Israeli JEWS have enjoyed very many freedoms throughout the years, comparable to Europeans and Americans, and I don't think they could take being left out of the world community in the fashion of North Koreans or Cubans. Or to make a more direct comparison, South Africans.
No factor is in the favor of Israel in the future. Zionism is going to end. Would be cool if they could see this themselves.
You raise some very good points.
Israeli politics is the crucible on which all of this rests. If, in twenty to thirty years Israel has made some shift back to the left, then Israel will move away from going completely insane. But if the religious right and the Russian immigrant community can combine to form a block that essentially creates a permanent conservative majority, then this will end in a very ugly fashion. Those two blocks don't really care about democracy, or liberal pluralism, or minority rights, or anything like that.
What worries me is that we're already at the point where we have the current parties in the kinesset
Yisrael Beiteinu 15 (The third biggest party in the kinesset. We should all be scared shitless by this)
Shas-11
United Torah Judaism- 5
National Union - 4
The Jewish Home - 3
40 states, or a third of the parliament, is made up of right wing and religious extremists. United Torah Judaism and National Union are both out of the coalition, probably out of a desire to avoid an excessively fragmented and excessively extreme coalition.
The fear I have is that these parties will take an increasing share of the votes from election to election. These votes are likely to come from the decline of Labor's aging base and possibly from a decline in Likud, as both parties have been in existence from the beginning.
Likud and Netanyahu is the taming force for these parties. If they gain power, all hell breaks loose. The question is whether russian immigration and natural growth will result in the dramatic gains necessary.
I've been reading a lot of recent articles on this tonight and I'm getting the picture that the US is going to try and force some sort of settlement here. Obama has given Israel and Palestine a deadline for autumn to come up with a plan or they'll simply forcefeed them one with a two state solution. I have a strong feeling Hamas is going to try for this because of the cooling relations between the US and Israel and thats giving them some hope of a resolution, Bush kinda/sorta told Israel that the US would support their annexation of jewish settled territory but Obama's told them this is a no go.
So basicly I think Hamas will stop rocket attacks until Autumn, declare statehood and the US will recognize them. What happens after that is up in the air though, Obama is unlikely to allow Israel to annex east Jerusalem but its going to get really fucking messy once Palestine invokes the right of return.
Of course this might all be wishful thinking on my part but I'm hopeful Obama has the balls to do this.
Doubtful. Where are they going to declare statehood, Gaza? Fatah and Hamas are still at odds, and everyone in West Bank are still under total Israeli control. It would be nothing but words at this point. Obama is smart, and he is a pragmatist. It's going to take time beyond his both terms to create a Palestinian state that comes even close to resembling a chance to form a functionable state in the future.
Israeli politics is the crucible on which all of this rests. If, in twenty to thirty years Israel has made some shift back to the left, then Israel will move away from this. But if the religious right and the Russian immigrant community can combine to form a block that essentially creates a permanent conservative majority, then this will end in a very ugly fashion. Those two blocks don't really care about democracy, or liberal pluralism, or minority rights, or anything like that.
What worries me is that we're already at the point where we have the current parties in the kinesset
Yisrael Beiteinu 15 (The third biggest party in the kinesset. We should all be scared shitless by this)
Shas-11
United Torah Judaism- 5
National Union - 4
The Jewish Home - 3
40 states, or a third of the parliament, is made up of right wing and religious extremists. United Torah Judaism and National Union are both out of the coalition, probably out of a desire to avoid an excessively fragmented and excessively extreme coalition.
The fear I have is that these parties will take an increasing share of the votes from election to election. These votes are likely to come from the decline of Labor's aging base and possibly from a decline in Likud, as both parties have been in existence from the beginning.
Likud and Netanyahu is the taming force for these parties. If they gain power, all hell breaks loose. The question is whether russian immigration and natural growth will result in the dramatic gains necessary.
Honestly, it will probably end ugly.
But when it will, Israel will have nobody to stand behind it, and the world won't be just standing around when it's going to descend into massive fascist nightmare. I don't believe that it will ever come into a military intervention seeing as Israel has nuclear weapons and all (though I doubt that any country in the world wants to see yet another nuclear armedreactionary dictatorship).
Massive economical isolation, however, will be enough to switch the popular opinion in Israel if it goes that way. It's a complete pariah in their own region, if everyone else will refuse to do business with them as well, then they will pretty much go down to third world levels. Israel is a high tech economy with almost zero natural resources with themselves and a land area that does not lend itself well to agricultural processes either. Economical isolation will be hundred times more crushing to Israel then it ever was to South Africa.
If it does end badly, then they have signed the end of Zionism themselves. One way or another, it will end, and they have utterly dug their grave themselves. It's just up to them to decide on how gracefully they accept it's inevitable demise.
Sadly, rhetorics never mattered in this conflict anyway. Israel will continue to do as they please, forcing violent reactions where necessary. Hell, I doubt it's beneath them to disguise some of their own men as arabs and stage an "attack".
sorry, this site is terrible. Read some of the other articles. It's an interesting and unique type of crazy, but not one that I would want to use to back up my arguments.
The site may be terrible, but it's pretty common knowledge that a bunch of Israeli money mysteriously ended up in Hamas' coffers right around when a competing movement was really inconvenient for the PLO.
Palestine has stopped being as much as a problem because of the discontinued rocket fire from Gaza? Better start a war with Syria! Gotta used those bombs somehow, I guess?
Palestine has stopped being as much as a problem because of the discontinued rocket fire from Gaza? Better start a war with Syria! Gotta used those bombs somehow, I guess?
This doesn't seem all that unreasonable. If a militia funded by a government starts using that government's weapons, that government is probably backing them.
Palestine has stopped being as much as a problem because of the discontinued rocket fire from Gaza? Better start a war with Syria! Gotta used those bombs somehow, I guess?
This doesn't seem all that unreasonable. If a militia funded by a government starts using that government's weapons, that government is probably backing them.
Hezbollah is an official part of the Lebanese government and it's legitimacy in Lebanon's politics are supported by both international and internal agreements. Lebanon's government has secured it's existence as an armed organization. Countries are not allowed to make arms trades now? I'd say that considering Israel's belligerency regarding Lebanon (two invasions, decades of occupation, thousands of civilians dead) it doesn't seem all that unreasonable that Hezbollah is further arming themselves.
Certainly not a cause for war. It's not like Syria would bomb United States if Israel would bomb them with U.S. made missiles.
Just another article in the long, long list of Israel hypocrisy.
If governmental blessing somehow legitimizes military actions (like Israeli apologists here seem to believe)...then Hezbollah is about as much a terrorist organization as IDF. Guess which side in fact killed less civilians then soldiers in the 2006 war?
Palestine has stopped being as much as a problem because of the discontinued rocket fire from Gaza? Better start a war with Syria! Gotta used those bombs somehow, I guess?
This doesn't seem all that unreasonable. If a militia funded by a government starts using that government's weapons, that government is probably backing them.
Hezbollah is an official part of the Lebanese government and it's legitimacy in Lebanon's politics are supported by both international and internal agreements. Lebanon's government has secured it's existence as an armed organization. Countries are not allowed to make arms trades now? I'd say that considering Israel's belligerency regarding Lebanon (two invasions, decades of occupation, thousands of civilians dead) it doesn't seem all that unreasonable that Hezbollah is further arming themselves.
Certainly not a cause for war. It's not like Syria would bomb United States if Israel would bomb them with U.S. made missiles.
Just another article in the long, long list of Israel hypocrisy.
If governmental blessing somehow legitimizes military actions (like Israeli apologists here seem to believe)...then Hezbollah is about as much a terrorist organization as IDF. Guess which side in fact killed less civilians then soldiers in the 2006 war?
You seem to have misread the article, which said that Israel would consider Hezbollah to be a proxy of Syria if Hezbollah were to attack using Syrian weapons.
You seem to have misread the article, which said that Israel would consider Hezbollah to be a proxy of Syria if Hezbollah were to attack using Syrian weapons.
And again, it's massive hypocrisy. Israel uses U.S. weapons, but isn't a proxy of the United States. Hezbollah also uses Iranian weapons, but isn't their proxy either. It is allied to Iran and Syria but it's also a legitimized part of the Lebanese government and has the right to conduct arms deals with whoever it wants, just like Israel does.
And the article clearly says that they will declare war to Syria should Hezbollah use Syrian weapons. If you didn't pick that up I think you should read it again.
It has been close to two years, so I suppose we are due for another brutal IDF campaign against civilian infrastructure. Calling it now...
2006: Lebanon
2008-9: Gaza
2010: Syria
Do you guys want to start a pool over the exact date that the first bomb gets dropped?
Also, I wonder what the target will be in 2012? My guess is the refugee camps in Jordan -- those lily-livered pussies haven't suffered a good population wipe in a long time and are getting a bit complacent.
It has been close to two years, so I suppose we are due for another brutal IDF campaign against civilian infrastructure. Calling it now...
2006: Lebanon
2008-9: Gaza
2010: Syria
Do you guys want to start a pool over the exact date that the first bomb gets dropped?
Also, I wonder what the target will be in 2012? My guess is the refugee camps in Jordan -- those lily-livered pussies haven't suffered a good population wipe in a long time and are getting a bit complacent.
It has been close to two years, so I suppose we are due for another brutal IDF campaign against civilian infrastructure. Calling it now...
2006: Lebanon
2008-9: Gaza
2010: Syria
Do you guys want to start a pool over the exact date that the first bomb gets dropped?
Also, I wonder what the target will be in 2012? My guess is the refugee camps in Jordan -- those lily-livered pussies haven't suffered a good population wipe in a long time and are getting a bit complacent.
I suppose after the last fiasco they are going to avoid Lebanon - by all accounts Hezbollah pretty much held their ground with about ten times less weapons and manpower, even when Israel leveled half of Beirut. My guess is they'll strike something where their enemies can't fight back.
But, let's face it, Israel isn't actually going to attack Syria. Modern society in Israel isn't going to accept the same losses that Israel has experienced in it's past wars.
And Hezbollah isn't going to shoot a missile into Israel out of the blue either so this is all pretty useless posturing. I got no more problem with them having missiles then the IDF having them, Hezbollah has shown that it's a much more responsible combatant out of the two, which is pretty fucking hilarious.
The most recent editorial on Haaretz is good, and pretty much says my feelings on the issue more nicely and eloquently.
The joy attendant on Israel's Independence Day traditionally focused on emphasizing the growing list of the young state's achievements and the sense that the country was progressing toward a better future - one of peace, enhanced physical and existential security, integration into the family of nations and the region, and a normalized existence. But the country's lifespan, which was considered a great virtue in and of itself during the first few decades, has become secondary to a far more important question: Within what dynamic is Israel operating? Is time on Israel's side? Is it setting goals for itself and working toward their realization? Has it blossomed into maturity? Are its citizens more secure and happier? Does it greet the future with hope?
Unfortunately, Israel's 62nd Independence Day finds it in a kind of diplomatic, security and moral limbo that is certainly no cause for celebration. It is isolated globally and embroiled in a conflict with the superpower whose friendship and support are vital to its very existence. It is devoid of any diplomatic plan aside from holding onto the territories and afraid of any movement. It wallows in a sense of existential threat that has only grown with time. It seizes on every instance of anti-Semitism, whether real or imagined, as a pretext for continued apathy and passivity. In many respects, it seems that Israel has lost the dynamism and hope of its early decades, and is once again mired in the ghetto mentality against which its founders rebelled.
Granted, Israel is not the sole custodian of its fate. Yet the shortcomings that have cast a pall over the country since its founding - the ethnocentrism, the dominance of the army and religious functionaries, the socioeconomic gaps, the subservience to the settlers, the mystical mode of thinking and the adherence to false beliefs - have, instead of disappearing over time, only gathered steam. The optimistic, pragmatic, peace-seeking spirit that once filled the Israeli people, in tune with the Zionist revolution, which sought to alter Jewish fate, has weakened. And it is not clear whether the current government is deepening the reactionary counterrevolution or merely giving it faithful expression.
On the eve of Independence Day last year, we wrote in this space: "Stagnation has taken the place of change. Not only does this government, which was formed not long ago, not bode well for hope and change. It champions a policy of regression in a number of areas: the diplomatic front; the Palestinian question; the state's attitude toward the settlers; issues of state and religion; its handling of Israeli Arabs; and its general behavior toward our Arab neighbors and the world. Whoever clings to the vision of 'managing the conflict' and despairs of reaching a solution to the conflict will find himself treading water. Instead of growing and reinventing ourselves, we will be the ones managed by crises."
It is saddening to discover that all these fears came true this year, to an even greater degree than we expected. When the prime minister's main message to the country is that we are once again on the verge of a holocaust, and his vision consists primarily of delving into the Bible, nurturing nationalist symbols and clinging to "national heritage sites," it seems that Hebrew independence has become a caricature of itself. One can only hope that forces within the nation will soon arise to reshape the state and the leadership in a way worthy of us all.
The most recent editorial on Haaretz is good, and pretty much says my feelings on the issue more nicely and eloquently.
The joy attendant on Israel's Independence Day traditionally focused on emphasizing the growing list of the young state's achievements and the sense that the country was progressing toward a better future - one of peace, enhanced physical and existential security, integration into the family of nations and the region, and a normalized existence. But the country's lifespan, which was considered a great virtue in and of itself during the first few decades, has become secondary to a far more important question: Within what dynamic is Israel operating? Is time on Israel's side? Is it setting goals for itself and working toward their realization? Has it blossomed into maturity? Are its citizens more secure and happier? Does it greet the future with hope?
Unfortunately, Israel's 62nd Independence Day finds it in a kind of diplomatic, security and moral limbo that is certainly no cause for celebration. It is isolated globally and embroiled in a conflict with the superpower whose friendship and support are vital to its very existence. It is devoid of any diplomatic plan aside from holding onto the territories and afraid of any movement. It wallows in a sense of existential threat that has only grown with time. It seizes on every instance of anti-Semitism, whether real or imagined, as a pretext for continued apathy and passivity. In many respects, it seems that Israel has lost the dynamism and hope of its early decades, and is once again mired in the ghetto mentality against which its founders rebelled.
Granted, Israel is not the sole custodian of its fate. Yet the shortcomings that have cast a pall over the country since its founding - the ethnocentrism, the dominance of the army and religious functionaries, the socioeconomic gaps, the subservience to the settlers, the mystical mode of thinking and the adherence to false beliefs - have, instead of disappearing over time, only gathered steam. The optimistic, pragmatic, peace-seeking spirit that once filled the Israeli people, in tune with the Zionist revolution, which sought to alter Jewish fate, has weakened. And it is not clear whether the current government is deepening the reactionary counterrevolution or merely giving it faithful expression.
On the eve of Independence Day last year, we wrote in this space: "Stagnation has taken the place of change. Not only does this government, which was formed not long ago, not bode well for hope and change. It champions a policy of regression in a number of areas: the diplomatic front; the Palestinian question; the state's attitude toward the settlers; issues of state and religion; its handling of Israeli Arabs; and its general behavior toward our Arab neighbors and the world. Whoever clings to the vision of 'managing the conflict' and despairs of reaching a solution to the conflict will find himself treading water. Instead of growing and reinventing ourselves, we will be the ones managed by crises."
It is saddening to discover that all these fears came true this year, to an even greater degree than we expected. When the prime minister's main message to the country is that we are once again on the verge of a holocaust, and his vision consists primarily of delving into the Bible, nurturing nationalist symbols and clinging to "national heritage sites," it seems that Hebrew independence has become a caricature of itself. One can only hope that forces within the nation will soon arise to reshape the state and the leadership in a way worthy of us all.
Yeah, I agree with pretty much all of that. The causes are various: the influx of authoritarian, hard-line Eastern European immigrants, rapidly expanding ultra-orthodox community, repeated failure in the peace process, etc. This has led to erosion in the quality of healthcare, education, and many other non-security, non-religious functions of the government.
I went to Israel as part of a MASA program, which is outreach to the diaspora Jewish community, or more specifically, the educated, young, non-ultra-orthodox/Hasidic diaspora community. They need people like me to make aliyah (to become an Israeli citizen and settle down permanently) to balance out the massive population growth in the ultra-orthodox community (and, I'd argue, the authoritarian Eastern European community as well). I'm not going to do that but it did open my eyes to the incredibly tenuous grip the secular community has on Israel's future. Kadima was perhaps one of their last, best hopes at changing Israel's direction but Livni et al. were incapable of forming a coalition due to Israel's fucked up political system (you win the most seats but you can still lose! Yay!).
My hope is that the political wing of Hamas truly has won out and will minimize the use of violence so the Israeli left can actually make a persuasive push for peace. The right tends to win when rockets are falling but the left is much better at actually managing the country. This may be a pipe dream but I gotta believe that the crazies don't have history on their side.
You seem to have misread the article, which said that Israel would consider Hezbollah to be a proxy of Syria if Hezbollah were to attack using Syrian weapons.
And again, it's massive hypocrisy. Israel uses U.S. weapons, but isn't a proxy of the United States. Hezbollah also uses Iranian weapons, but isn't their proxy either. It is allied to Iran and Syria but it's also a legitimized part of the Lebanese government and has the right to conduct arms deals with whoever it wants, just like Israel does.
And the article clearly says that they will declare war to Syria should Hezbollah use Syrian weapons. If you didn't pick that up I think you should read it again.
You seem to have misread the article, which said that Israel would consider Hezbollah to be a proxy of Syria if Hezbollah were to attack using Syrian weapons.
And again, it's massive hypocrisy. Israel uses U.S. weapons, but isn't a proxy of the United States. Hezbollah also uses Iranian weapons, but isn't their proxy either. It is allied to Iran and Syria but it's also a legitimized part of the Lebanese government and has the right to conduct arms deals with whoever it wants, just like Israel does.
And the article clearly says that they will declare war to Syria should Hezbollah use Syrian weapons. If you didn't pick that up I think you should read it again.
That's what I said.
So I'm not sure what's the problem here is? It's massively hypocritical to equate one state with the country they buy weapons from. Otherwise U.S. would be at war with half the countries in the world. And by proxy, so would be Israel.
"This demand that they've now introduced, the Palestinians, to stop all construction, Jewish construction in Jewish neighbourhoods in Jerusalem, is totally, totally a non-starter, because what it does is prevent peace."
"This demand that they've now introduced, the Palestinians, to stop all construction, Jewish construction in Jewish neighbourhoods in Jerusalem, is totally, totally a non-starter, because what it does is prevent peace."
*facepalm* I'm not even surprised anymore, news come out that Hamas is forcing other factions in Gaza to stop firing rockets and this is how Israel responds.
Edit: Reading that article Netanyahu frames it a bit differently, and he adds this:
"I say let's remove all preconditions, including those on Jerusalem. Let's get into the room and negotiate peace without preconditions. That's the simplest way to get to peace."
"This demand that they've now introduced, the Palestinians, to stop all construction, Jewish construction in Jewish neighbourhoods in Jerusalem, is totally, totally a non-starter, because what it does is prevent peace."
Netanyahu:"I say let's remove all preconditions, including those on Jerusalem. Let's get into the room and negotiate peace without preconditions. That's the simplest way to get to peace."
Actually I find that a pretty surprising quote. Usually Israel is all about preconditions so they can claim that every stalling in achieving peace negotiations is Palestinians fault for not meeting those preconditions. Maybe with the Hamas announcement Netanyahu has figured which way the wind is blowing, or maybe he just wants to put some ridicolous shit on the table in the actual negotiations so he can claim that the Palestinians threw his selfless offer to his face.
Actually I find that a pretty surprising quote. Usually Israel is all about preconditions so they can claim that every stalling in achieving peace negotiations is Palestinians fault for not meeting those preconditions. Maybe with the Hamas announcement Netanyahu has figured which way the wind is blowing, or maybe he just wants to put some ridicolous shit on the table in the actual negotiations so he can claim that the Palestinians threw his selfless offer to his face.
Or he might just end it over contention over recognizing Israel, as things could devolve very easily if one side is negotiating with a sasquatch on paper. Also, Hamas sees prior agreements as bargaining chips, while Israel sees them as an assurance that it won't throw out negotiation results the minute it feels it's gotten what it wants from Israel.
Actually I find that a pretty surprising quote. Usually Israel is all about preconditions so they can claim that every stalling in achieving peace negotiations is Palestinians fault for not meeting those preconditions. Maybe with the Hamas announcement Netanyahu has figured which way the wind is blowing, or maybe he just wants to put some ridicolous shit on the table in the actual negotiations so he can claim that the Palestinians threw his selfless offer to his face.
Or he might just end it over contention over recognizing Israel, as things could devolve very easily if one side is negotiating with a sasquatch on paper. Also, Hamas sees prior agreements as bargaining chips, while Israel sees them as an assurance that it won't throw out negotiation results the minute it feels it's gotten what it wants from Israel.
The problem is, Israel views the smallest and tiniest hitch in meeting whatever standards it sets as an excuse to claim that Palestinians as a whole have thrown the negotiation results out. While never meeting a single standard set to themselves in the process.
Actually I find that a pretty surprising quote. Usually Israel is all about preconditions so they can claim that every stalling in achieving peace negotiations is Palestinians fault for not meeting those preconditions. Maybe with the Hamas announcement Netanyahu has figured which way the wind is blowing, or maybe he just wants to put some ridicolous shit on the table in the actual negotiations so he can claim that the Palestinians threw his selfless offer to his face.
Or he might just end it over contention over recognizing Israel, as things could devolve very easily if one side is negotiating with a sasquatch on paper. Also, Hamas sees prior agreements as bargaining chips, while Israel sees them as an assurance that it won't throw out negotiation results the minute it feels it's gotten what it wants from Israel.
The problem is, Israel views the smallest and tiniest hitch in meeting whatever standards it sets as an excuse to claim that Palestinians as a whole have thrown the negotiation results out. While never meeting a single standard set to themselves in the process.
And Palestine views the tiniest disagreement as a reason to blow up civilians. Look, I can do it too!
It is an incredibly volatile situation on both sides. I think the most important thing to note about Netanyahu's comment is that it means he thinks that the Israeli public is continuing to shift away from the right, which HAS been its current trend. I will say that I do not honestly believe that we are going to have peace tomorrow, but it is a sign of the building potential.
Actually I find that a pretty surprising quote. Usually Israel is all about preconditions so they can claim that every stalling in achieving peace negotiations is Palestinians fault for not meeting those preconditions. Maybe with the Hamas announcement Netanyahu has figured which way the wind is blowing, or maybe he just wants to put some ridicolous shit on the table in the actual negotiations so he can claim that the Palestinians threw his selfless offer to his face.
Or he might just end it over contention over recognizing Israel, as things could devolve very easily if one side is negotiating with a sasquatch on paper. Also, Hamas sees prior agreements as bargaining chips, while Israel sees them as an assurance that it won't throw out negotiation results the minute it feels it's gotten what it wants from Israel.
The problem is, Israel views the smallest and tiniest hitch in meeting whatever standards it sets as an excuse to claim that Palestinians as a whole have thrown the negotiation results out. While never meeting a single standard set to themselves in the process.
And Palestine views the tiniest disagreement as a reason to blow up civilians. Look, I can do it too!
It is an incredibly volatile situation on both sides. I think the most important thing to note about Netanyahu's comment is that it means he thinks that the Israeli public is continuing to shift away from the right, which HAS been its current trend. I will say that I do not honestly believe that we are going to have peace tomorrow, but it is a sign of the building potential.
Which is why Palestinians have been slaughtering Israeli citizens by the dozen ever since Netanyahu's statement OH WAIT
Actually I find that a pretty surprising quote. Usually Israel is all about preconditions so they can claim that every stalling in achieving peace negotiations is Palestinians fault for not meeting those preconditions. Maybe with the Hamas announcement Netanyahu has figured which way the wind is blowing, or maybe he just wants to put some ridicolous shit on the table in the actual negotiations so he can claim that the Palestinians threw his selfless offer to his face.
Or he might just end it over contention over recognizing Israel, as things could devolve very easily if one side is negotiating with a sasquatch on paper. Also, Hamas sees prior agreements as bargaining chips, while Israel sees them as an assurance that it won't throw out negotiation results the minute it feels it's gotten what it wants from Israel.
The problem is, Israel views the smallest and tiniest hitch in meeting whatever standards it sets as an excuse to claim that Palestinians as a whole have thrown the negotiation results out. While never meeting a single standard set to themselves in the process.
And Palestine views the tiniest disagreement as a reason to blow up civilians. Look, I can do it too!
It is an incredibly volatile situation on both sides. I think the most important thing to note about Netanyahu's comment is that it means he thinks that the Israeli public is continuing to shift away from the right, which HAS been its current trend. I will say that I do not honestly believe that we are going to have peace tomorrow, but it is a sign of the building potential.
Which is why Palestinians have been slaughtering Israeli citizens by the dozen ever since Netanyahu's statement OH WAIT
He never said they were very good at blowing up civilians, just that they try their darnedest. Most countries will arrest people for trying to detonate an incompetently constructed bomb.
Most countries will arrest people for trying to detonate an incompetently constructed bomb.
just wanted to reiterate this
there is a crime in the US called attempted murder. if you shoot at a guy in cold blood, and miss him, you do not get off scot-free because you missed him.
Now, before some one thinks they are being clever by comparing Israel to some other type of criminal, I am NOT pretending Israel is entire innocent either, here. I am just pointing out that playing a game where Palestine is a poor defenseless victim who never did nothing to no one is a load of bull. Same goes for anyone who tries to play that game with Israel, obviously.
Most countries will arrest people for trying to detonate an incompetently constructed bomb.
just wanted to reiterate this
there is a crime in the US called attempted murder. if you shoot at a guy in cold blood, and miss him, you do not get off scot-free because you missed him.
Now, before some one thinks they are being clever by comparing Israel to some other type of criminal, I am NOT pretending Israel is entire innocent either, here. I am just pointing out that playing a game where Palestine is a poor defenseless victim who never did nothing to no one is a load of bull. Same goes for anyone who tries to play that game with Israel, obviously.
It's pretty funny when you claim that people think that Palestine is a defenseless victim when nobody here thinks that.
Here is a thing - just because people say that they understand where Palestine is coming from, doesn't mean that they condone the actions. So when I say that I understand why Hamas uses terrorism, that doesn't mean that I condone that. I also understand why Israel is an apartheid oppressive state, but I don't condone it.
Also, just because Palestine isn't a defenseless victim, it doesn't mean that Israel isn't the worse party in this conflict. It kills more people, it causes more destruction, it oppresses far more people, and is responsible for far more bad things then Palestine.
This doesn't mean that Palestine is good. Nazi Germany fought Soviet Union, both were evil. Nazis were just worse.
You are operating on some wierd black and white mentality here. Shades of black and gray here.
Shorter: Obama is knowingly being aggressive towards Israel because he wants to appease the leftists who are disappointed in his Afghanistan policy.
Of course. So obvious. Thank goodness for moderates.
It's pretty funny how the writer ignores the fact that Mexican drug gangs kill more American citizens in a month then the rocket attacks have killed in a day, and the harm caused by them is already far far far far worse to the American society then Hamas could ever cause to Israel. Not to mention to Mexico itself.
Israel has the largest victim complex in the history of the world, and this sort of shit just fuels it.
Number of times when Israel has stopped settlements - none
How about the times when they dismantled all of the settlements in an area?
How about when they've frozen settlements, and then later started again? I am NOT a fan of them restarting, but that is essentially EXACTLY the level of effort you are applauding Palestine for.
If you are going to completely ignore the Sinai and Gaza dismantlements, then you are too far removed from reality to have a rational discussion.
I don't think anyone is ignoring any dismantlement, but the fact is that any less than total dismantlement is insufficient. Settlement must end. The entire enterprise is completely insane.
I don't think anyone is ignoring any dismantlement, but the fact is that any less than total dismantlement is insufficient. Settlement must end. The entire enterprise is completely insane.
Did you ignore the quote in my post, then? DC just said that Israel has never done anything to stop settlement, despite examples of active dismantlement, even in recent memory.
I don't disagree with you on ending settlement. I have never been a fan of settlement. It is a false equivalence, though, to compare building houses to firing rockets at civilians, or sending a man strapped with bombs in to a market.
Just because the Palestinians have inferior weapons doesn't make it okay for them to be firing.
Number of times when Israel has stopped settlements - none
How about the times when they dismantled all of the settlements in an area?
How about when they've frozen settlements, and then later started again? I am NOT a fan of them restarting, but that is essentially EXACTLY the level of effort you are applauding Palestine for.
If you are going to completely ignore the Sinai and Gaza dismantlements, then you are too far removed from reality to have a rational discussion.
Israel does not get any credit for dismantling the Gaza settlements for a number of reasons.
1. Because Israel simply made new settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
2. Because as soon as the settlements were gone, the siege of Gaza began under the guise of penalizing the Gazans for voting in Hamas.
3. Who cares that they dismantled those settlements? What all difference does it make? The Pals don't have any settlements to dismantle in return. The Pals have nothing to offer, but the Israelis have a lot to give back.
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And Disney World is nowhere in sight.
Well, they aren't exactly a world away from that prospect.
So basicly I think Hamas will stop rocket attacks until Autumn, declare statehood and the US will recognize them. What happens after that is up in the air though, Obama is unlikely to allow Israel to annex east Jerusalem but its going to get really fucking messy once Palestine invokes the right of return.
Of course this might all be wishful thinking on my part but I'm hopeful Obama has the balls to do this.
You raise some very good points.
Israeli politics is the crucible on which all of this rests. If, in twenty to thirty years Israel has made some shift back to the left, then Israel will move away from going completely insane. But if the religious right and the Russian immigrant community can combine to form a block that essentially creates a permanent conservative majority, then this will end in a very ugly fashion. Those two blocks don't really care about democracy, or liberal pluralism, or minority rights, or anything like that.
What worries me is that we're already at the point where we have the current parties in the kinesset
Yisrael Beiteinu 15 (The third biggest party in the kinesset. We should all be scared shitless by this)
Shas-11
United Torah Judaism- 5
National Union - 4
The Jewish Home - 3
40 states, or a third of the parliament, is made up of right wing and religious extremists. United Torah Judaism and National Union are both out of the coalition, probably out of a desire to avoid an excessively fragmented and excessively extreme coalition.
The fear I have is that these parties will take an increasing share of the votes from election to election. These votes are likely to come from the decline of Labor's aging base and possibly from a decline in Likud, as both parties have been in existence from the beginning.
Likud and Netanyahu is the taming force for these parties. If they gain power, all hell breaks loose. The question is whether russian immigration and natural growth will result in the dramatic gains necessary.
Doubtful. Where are they going to declare statehood, Gaza? Fatah and Hamas are still at odds, and everyone in West Bank are still under total Israeli control. It would be nothing but words at this point. Obama is smart, and he is a pragmatist. It's going to take time beyond his both terms to create a Palestinian state that comes even close to resembling a chance to form a functionable state in the future.
Honestly, it will probably end ugly.
But when it will, Israel will have nobody to stand behind it, and the world won't be just standing around when it's going to descend into massive fascist nightmare. I don't believe that it will ever come into a military intervention seeing as Israel has nuclear weapons and all (though I doubt that any country in the world wants to see yet another nuclear armedreactionary dictatorship).
Massive economical isolation, however, will be enough to switch the popular opinion in Israel if it goes that way. It's a complete pariah in their own region, if everyone else will refuse to do business with them as well, then they will pretty much go down to third world levels. Israel is a high tech economy with almost zero natural resources with themselves and a land area that does not lend itself well to agricultural processes either. Economical isolation will be hundred times more crushing to Israel then it ever was to South Africa.
If it does end badly, then they have signed the end of Zionism themselves. One way or another, it will end, and they have utterly dug their grave themselves. It's just up to them to decide on how gracefully they accept it's inevitable demise.
sorry, this site is terrible. Read some of the other articles. It's an interesting and unique type of crazy, but not one that I would want to use to back up my arguments.
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This doesn't seem all that unreasonable. If a militia funded by a government starts using that government's weapons, that government is probably backing them.
Hezbollah is an official part of the Lebanese government and it's legitimacy in Lebanon's politics are supported by both international and internal agreements. Lebanon's government has secured it's existence as an armed organization. Countries are not allowed to make arms trades now? I'd say that considering Israel's belligerency regarding Lebanon (two invasions, decades of occupation, thousands of civilians dead) it doesn't seem all that unreasonable that Hezbollah is further arming themselves.
Certainly not a cause for war. It's not like Syria would bomb United States if Israel would bomb them with U.S. made missiles.
Just another article in the long, long list of Israel hypocrisy.
If governmental blessing somehow legitimizes military actions (like Israeli apologists here seem to believe)...then Hezbollah is about as much a terrorist organization as IDF. Guess which side in fact killed less civilians then soldiers in the 2006 war?
You seem to have misread the article, which said that Israel would consider Hezbollah to be a proxy of Syria if Hezbollah were to attack using Syrian weapons.
And again, it's massive hypocrisy. Israel uses U.S. weapons, but isn't a proxy of the United States. Hezbollah also uses Iranian weapons, but isn't their proxy either. It is allied to Iran and Syria but it's also a legitimized part of the Lebanese government and has the right to conduct arms deals with whoever it wants, just like Israel does.
And the article clearly says that they will declare war to Syria should Hezbollah use Syrian weapons. If you didn't pick that up I think you should read it again.
2006: Lebanon
2008-9: Gaza
2010: Syria
Do you guys want to start a pool over the exact date that the first bomb gets dropped?
Also, I wonder what the target will be in 2012? My guess is the refugee camps in Jordan -- those lily-livered pussies haven't suffered a good population wipe in a long time and are getting a bit complacent.
That will depend on who threatens Israel.
I suppose after the last fiasco they are going to avoid Lebanon - by all accounts Hezbollah pretty much held their ground with about ten times less weapons and manpower, even when Israel leveled half of Beirut. My guess is they'll strike something where their enemies can't fight back.
But, let's face it, Israel isn't actually going to attack Syria. Modern society in Israel isn't going to accept the same losses that Israel has experienced in it's past wars.
And Hezbollah isn't going to shoot a missile into Israel out of the blue either so this is all pretty useless posturing. I got no more problem with them having missiles then the IDF having them, Hezbollah has shown that it's a much more responsible combatant out of the two, which is pretty fucking hilarious.
Yeah, I agree with pretty much all of that. The causes are various: the influx of authoritarian, hard-line Eastern European immigrants, rapidly expanding ultra-orthodox community, repeated failure in the peace process, etc. This has led to erosion in the quality of healthcare, education, and many other non-security, non-religious functions of the government.
I went to Israel as part of a MASA program, which is outreach to the diaspora Jewish community, or more specifically, the educated, young, non-ultra-orthodox/Hasidic diaspora community. They need people like me to make aliyah (to become an Israeli citizen and settle down permanently) to balance out the massive population growth in the ultra-orthodox community (and, I'd argue, the authoritarian Eastern European community as well). I'm not going to do that but it did open my eyes to the incredibly tenuous grip the secular community has on Israel's future. Kadima was perhaps one of their last, best hopes at changing Israel's direction but Livni et al. were incapable of forming a coalition due to Israel's fucked up political system (you win the most seats but you can still lose! Yay!).
My hope is that the political wing of Hamas truly has won out and will minimize the use of violence so the Israeli left can actually make a persuasive push for peace. The right tends to win when rockets are falling but the left is much better at actually managing the country. This may be a pipe dream but I gotta believe that the crazies don't have history on their side.
That's what I said.
So I'm not sure what's the problem here is? It's massively hypocritical to equate one state with the country they buy weapons from. Otherwise U.S. would be at war with half the countries in the world. And by proxy, so would be Israel.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8630436.stm
Apropos
*facepalm* I'm not even surprised anymore, news come out that Hamas is forcing other factions in Gaza to stop firing rockets and this is how Israel responds.
Edit: Reading that article Netanyahu frames it a bit differently, and he adds this:
This quote is the real kicker:
Or he might just end it over contention over recognizing Israel, as things could devolve very easily if one side is negotiating with a sasquatch on paper. Also, Hamas sees prior agreements as bargaining chips, while Israel sees them as an assurance that it won't throw out negotiation results the minute it feels it's gotten what it wants from Israel.
The problem is, Israel views the smallest and tiniest hitch in meeting whatever standards it sets as an excuse to claim that Palestinians as a whole have thrown the negotiation results out. While never meeting a single standard set to themselves in the process.
And Palestine views the tiniest disagreement as a reason to blow up civilians. Look, I can do it too!
It is an incredibly volatile situation on both sides. I think the most important thing to note about Netanyahu's comment is that it means he thinks that the Israeli public is continuing to shift away from the right, which HAS been its current trend. I will say that I do not honestly believe that we are going to have peace tomorrow, but it is a sign of the building potential.
Which is why Palestinians have been slaughtering Israeli citizens by the dozen ever since Netanyahu's statement OH WAIT
He never said they were very good at blowing up civilians, just that they try their darnedest. Most countries will arrest people for trying to detonate an incompetently constructed bomb.
just wanted to reiterate this
there is a crime in the US called attempted murder. if you shoot at a guy in cold blood, and miss him, you do not get off scot-free because you missed him.
Now, before some one thinks they are being clever by comparing Israel to some other type of criminal, I am NOT pretending Israel is entire innocent either, here. I am just pointing out that playing a game where Palestine is a poor defenseless victim who never did nothing to no one is a load of bull. Same goes for anyone who tries to play that game with Israel, obviously.
Number of times when Israel has stopped settlements - none
It's not hyperbole when it's true.
It's pretty funny when you claim that people think that Palestine is a defenseless victim when nobody here thinks that.
Here is a thing - just because people say that they understand where Palestine is coming from, doesn't mean that they condone the actions. So when I say that I understand why Hamas uses terrorism, that doesn't mean that I condone that. I also understand why Israel is an apartheid oppressive state, but I don't condone it.
Also, just because Palestine isn't a defenseless victim, it doesn't mean that Israel isn't the worse party in this conflict. It kills more people, it causes more destruction, it oppresses far more people, and is responsible for far more bad things then Palestine.
This doesn't mean that Palestine is good. Nazi Germany fought Soviet Union, both were evil. Nazis were just worse.
You are operating on some wierd black and white mentality here. Shades of black and gray here.
Shorter: Obama is knowingly being aggressive towards Israel because he wants to appease the leftists who are disappointed in his Afghanistan policy.
Of course. So obvious. Thank goodness for moderates.
It's pretty funny how the writer ignores the fact that Mexican drug gangs kill more American citizens in a month then the rocket attacks have killed in a day, and the harm caused by them is already far far far far worse to the American society then Hamas could ever cause to Israel. Not to mention to Mexico itself.
Israel has the largest victim complex in the history of the world, and this sort of shit just fuels it.
How about the times when they dismantled all of the settlements in an area?
How about when they've frozen settlements, and then later started again? I am NOT a fan of them restarting, but that is essentially EXACTLY the level of effort you are applauding Palestine for.
If you are going to completely ignore the Sinai and Gaza dismantlements, then you are too far removed from reality to have a rational discussion.
Did you ignore the quote in my post, then? DC just said that Israel has never done anything to stop settlement, despite examples of active dismantlement, even in recent memory.
I don't disagree with you on ending settlement. I have never been a fan of settlement. It is a false equivalence, though, to compare building houses to firing rockets at civilians, or sending a man strapped with bombs in to a market.
Just because the Palestinians have inferior weapons doesn't make it okay for them to be firing.
Israel does not get any credit for dismantling the Gaza settlements for a number of reasons.
1. Because Israel simply made new settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
2. Because as soon as the settlements were gone, the siege of Gaza began under the guise of penalizing the Gazans for voting in Hamas.
3. Who cares that they dismantled those settlements? What all difference does it make? The Pals don't have any settlements to dismantle in return. The Pals have nothing to offer, but the Israelis have a lot to give back.