I don't know who 15 is but I like how he literally just watches bennett all the way from the 3 point arc to the hoop, while guarding essentially nobody
The next Bosh.
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
So the scuttlebutt right now is that Cleveland drafted Andrew Wiggins specifically because Minnesota likes him more than Jabari Parker, and Cleveland has wanted to trade for Kevin Love to play along side LeBron (don't be fooled, this LeBron to Cleveland thing has been in the works for a WHILE, Cleveland has been planning for just this possibility).
If that goes down, Cleveland would have a core of James, Irving and Love. Put some shooters and role players around them and that's a hell of a team in the east.
I don't think they could, I also don't think you'll see Love on the cavaliers. It'll be just like the James teams of old, James and some other guys cleveland hopes are going to be the next scottie pippen.
I think you're going to be wrong on the Love part. There is a lot of rumbling that Love has already told his agent he would sign a long term deal with Cleveland, and notice LeBron did not mention Wiggins or Bennet in his letter.
I would be very surprise if Love isn't in a cavs jersey next year.
e: In fact, the rumblings are so strong, both SI and ESPN have articles about that very specific core of a team and what they are capable of. I'll bet you the Love domino falls this weekend or early next week.
expected win totals have roughly a +/- 3 margin of error from what I have seen, and 60+ win teams win championships a lot more than 52-54 win teams (which is what CLE would be with just lebron and kyrie [kyrie is crazy fucking overrated as currently skilled, but still only 22])
Here are some benchmarks to keep in mind: A team that played James 35 minutes a game and filled out the rest of the roster with replacement-level players would have a projected record of 33-49. And a team that had James plus 11 league-average players would have a record of 56-26.
As a Spurs fan, I am just fine with Bosh not going to Houston. Kind of makes me wonder why Houston shipped out Jeremy Lin (and whatever else) to the Lakers if Bosh wasn't a sure thing.
im guessing lin wasn't official official yet, so they'll probably hang on to him. asik though, he kinda got shipped off for nothing
I always heard that Harden never got along with Lin on the court.
Nah, they got along fine. I mean, as long as one of them is Jeremy Lin, it's pretty much impossible for them not to get along. They basically gave Beverley Lin's job, and they were BFFs both on and off the court.
The problem is that Harden plays the way everyone used to want LeBron James and Kevin Durant to play (before they realized that kind of play was unsustainable and would destroy the player come playoffs time). He has all the physical properties of a black hole when it comes to the basketball. The only time he ever gives it up is when he absolutely doesn't have a play (i.e., when he drives and there are four guys there and he can't get a foul or when he has done his little shimmy shake move and the defender didn't bite and there are 4 seconds left on the clock but oh well here you go dude your turn).
If you aren't going to implement an actual offense (which the Rockets either couldn't or wouldn't do), nobody else is going to do well in that "system" unless they are premiere pop-up shooters and don't need the ball in their hands to succeed. Lin was pretty much the antithesis of that going into his contract.
The irony here is that by the time this last season rolled around, he went from one of the worst to one of the best catch-and-shoot guards in the league. From NBA.com:
"Lin’s biggest strides came as a shooter as he established career highs in both 3-point percentage (.358) and true shooting percentage (.572). In fact, the Ivy League product’s true shooting figure was 10th among all point guards this season, eclipsing the marks posted by All-Stars Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving. Lin also ranked well above average as a catch-and-shoot threat, knocking down better than 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities from beyond the arc. And not only did Lin improve upon his 3-point accuracy for the fourth consecutive year, he did the same with regard to his finishing touch around the rim where he managed to knock down more than 62 percent of his shots taken from that area this season – this after connecting at a rate of 58.1 and 48.7 percent, respectively, during the prior two seasons."
Lin bent over backwards to accommodate the team's needs, and showed marked, meaningful improvement in basically all areas of his play (especially those they asked him to work on once they signed Harden). He's not the best point/combo guard in basketball, but if you look around at the league at all the selfish guys who only want to do what they do and refuse to improve or be team players, it's hard to fathom why a franchise or a fanbase would trash a player as much as Houston trashed Lin.
Makes you wonder what's going on.
Oh wait, I know what it is. They have Jeremy Lin confused with this Asian guy here on this poster who fixed their computer and says things like "ching chong wang wong". Obviously they are the same guy and can't play basketball.
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
As a Spurs fan, I am just fine with Bosh not going to Houston. Kind of makes me wonder why Houston shipped out Jeremy Lin (and whatever else) to the Lakers if Bosh wasn't a sure thing.
im guessing lin wasn't official official yet, so they'll probably hang on to him. asik though, he kinda got shipped off for nothing
I always heard that Harden never got along with Lin on the court.
Nah, they got along fine. I mean, as long as one of them is Jeremy Lin, it's pretty much impossible for them not to get along. They basically gave Beverley Lin's job, and they were BFFs both on and off the court.
The problem is that Harden plays the way everyone used to want LeBron James and Kevin Durant to play (before they realized that kind of play was unsustainable and would destroy the player come playoffs time). He has all the physical properties of a black hole when it comes to the basketball. The only time he ever gives it up is when he absolutely doesn't have a play (i.e., when he drives and there are four guys there and he can't get a foul or when he has done his little shimmy shake move and the defender didn't bite and there are 4 seconds left on the clock but oh well here you go dude your turn).
If you aren't going to implement an actual offense (which the Rockets either couldn't or wouldn't do), nobody else is going to do well in that "system" unless they are premiere pop-up shooters and don't need the ball in their hands to succeed. Lin was pretty much the antithesis of that going into his contract.
The irony here is that by the time this last season rolled around, he went from one of the worst to one of the best catch-and-shoot guards in the league. From NBA.com:
"Lin’s biggest strides came as a shooter as he established career highs in both 3-point percentage (.358) and true shooting percentage (.572). In fact, the Ivy League product’s true shooting figure was 10th among all point guards this season, eclipsing the marks posted by All-Stars Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving. Lin also ranked well above average as a catch-and-shoot threat, knocking down better than 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities from beyond the arc. And not only did Lin improve upon his 3-point accuracy for the fourth consecutive year, he did the same with regard to his finishing touch around the rim where he managed to knock down more than 62 percent of his shots taken from that area this season – this after connecting at a rate of 58.1 and 48.7 percent, respectively, during the prior two seasons."
Lin bent over backwards to accommodate the team's needs, and showed marked, meaningful improvement in basically all areas of his play (especially those they asked him to work on once they signed Harden). He's not the best point/combo guard in basketball, but if you look around at the league at all the selfish guys who only want to do what they do and refuse to improve or be team players, it's hard to fathom why a franchise or a fanbase would trash a player as much as Houston trashed Lin.
Makes you wonder what's going on.
Oh wait, I know what it is. They have Jeremy Lin confused with this Asian guy here on this poster who fixed their computer and says things like "ching chong wang wong". Obviously they are the same guy and can't play basketball.
don't you think that maybe playing fewer minutes and almost exclusively against second units may have helped his numbers, especially compared to guys like kyrie and lillard who had to carry a huge load offensively both in minutes and role
you know, instead of believing an entire organization, one that focuses heavily on advanced stats and finding undervalued assets, is racist
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
As a Spurs fan, I am just fine with Bosh not going to Houston. Kind of makes me wonder why Houston shipped out Jeremy Lin (and whatever else) to the Lakers if Bosh wasn't a sure thing.
im guessing lin wasn't official official yet, so they'll probably hang on to him. asik though, he kinda got shipped off for nothing
I always heard that Harden never got along with Lin on the court.
Nah, they got along fine. I mean, as long as one of them is Jeremy Lin, it's pretty much impossible for them not to get along. They basically gave Beverley Lin's job, and they were BFFs both on and off the court.
The problem is that Harden plays the way everyone used to want LeBron James and Kevin Durant to play (before they realized that kind of play was unsustainable and would destroy the player come playoffs time). He has all the physical properties of a black hole when it comes to the basketball. The only time he ever gives it up is when he absolutely doesn't have a play (i.e., when he drives and there are four guys there and he can't get a foul or when he has done his little shimmy shake move and the defender didn't bite and there are 4 seconds left on the clock but oh well here you go dude your turn).
If you aren't going to implement an actual offense (which the Rockets either couldn't or wouldn't do), nobody else is going to do well in that "system" unless they are premiere pop-up shooters and don't need the ball in their hands to succeed. Lin was pretty much the antithesis of that going into his contract.
The irony here is that by the time this last season rolled around, he went from one of the worst to one of the best catch-and-shoot guards in the league. From NBA.com:
"Lin’s biggest strides came as a shooter as he established career highs in both 3-point percentage (.358) and true shooting percentage (.572). In fact, the Ivy League product’s true shooting figure was 10th among all point guards this season, eclipsing the marks posted by All-Stars Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving. Lin also ranked well above average as a catch-and-shoot threat, knocking down better than 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities from beyond the arc. And not only did Lin improve upon his 3-point accuracy for the fourth consecutive year, he did the same with regard to his finishing touch around the rim where he managed to knock down more than 62 percent of his shots taken from that area this season – this after connecting at a rate of 58.1 and 48.7 percent, respectively, during the prior two seasons."
Lin bent over backwards to accommodate the team's needs, and showed marked, meaningful improvement in basically all areas of his play (especially those they asked him to work on once they signed Harden). He's not the best point/combo guard in basketball, but if you look around at the league at all the selfish guys who only want to do what they do and refuse to improve or be team players, it's hard to fathom why a franchise or a fanbase would trash a player as much as Houston trashed Lin.
Makes you wonder what's going on.
Oh wait, I know what it is. They have Jeremy Lin confused with this Asian guy here on this poster who fixed their computer and says things like "ching chong wang wong". Obviously they are the same guy and can't play basketball.
don't you think that maybe playing fewer minutes and almost exclusively against second units may have helped his numbers, especially compared to guys like kyrie and lillard who had to carry a huge load offensively both in minutes and role
you know, instead of believing an entire organization, one that focuses heavily on advanced stats and finding undervalued assets, is racist
Yep, especially the Rockets of all organizations. The #7 thing was stupid, but moving Lin to bring in Bosh would've been a major +++ move. Lin could be a starting PG somewhere, but it's understandable that Beverly/Harden was the preferred 1/2, especially after the playoffs last season.
And lol @ criticizing Bosh's defense. I wonder what it's like to support the Heat for the last 4 years, and still complain about everything they're actually good at compared to everyone else.
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Inquisitor772 x Penny Arcade Fight Club ChampionA fixed point in space and timeRegistered Userregular
don't you think that maybe playing fewer minutes and almost exclusively against second units may have helped his numbers, especially compared to guys like kyrie and lillard who had to carry a huge load offensively both in minutes and role
you know, instead of believing an entire organization, one that focuses heavily on advanced stats and finding undervalued assets, is racist
Yeah the problem is that those are demonstrably false. He played virtually the same minutes in 2012-2013 year (32.2 MPG) that he did this year (28.9 per game). He was a literal starter for half the season (owing to Beverley and Harden getting injured) and Houston by and large liked to play a smaller lineup, putting Beverley, Harden, and Lin all out at the same time for extended periods.
Also, there's a huge body of evidence that shows that the "bench lineup vs. starter lineup" dichotomy is untrue, for variety of reasons (largely doing with the fact that there's no such thing as playing only your starters and then rotating to only your reserves, and that basketball is a team sport).
I don't believe the entire organization or fan-base is overtly racist. The front office probably doesn't care either way, and McHale's decisions owe largely to his weaknesses as a coach rather than any racial bias (although I do think there is some of that there in the sense that everyone downplayed Lin's abilities up to his breakout season). I do think that the franchise as a whole has largely taken him for granted and put out face-saving narratives for their own benefit while expecting him to take it in stride and be a good company man. For example, I don't think the front office believes that Beverley is a better player (even on defense) than Lin is. But I do think that they believe Beverley is nearly as good a player, particularly given Harden's presence, and that he can be had at literally a fraction of the price and for the duration of the H&H contention window. But saying that there is some sort of "battle" for the PG position at the start of the year was disingenuous given they wanted to have Beverley play as many minutes as possible so that he would be ready to go for the next several years, instead of having him relegated to the bench and not getting the development he needed. Similarly, the idea that Lin would be playing "6th man" was also disingenuous when you actually looked at McHale's rotations (which largely made no sense) - the only reason Lin got so many minutes was because Beverley and Harden were out for extended periods of time, and the team went with small lineups in general. It had nothing to do with leading the bench or being the 6th man. The assumption that you would take a guy whom you signed as a starter and a heavily-featured player, and then demote him in such an overt manner, and then throw out such a pandering narrative, would have been absurd had he not been Asian. Nobody would have blamed him for calling them out on it, but instead he took it in stride. And if you're looking for an indication on how they would've reacted if he had said something, look at what happened when Lin threw out a freaking Bible verse in response to the Melo number ridiculousness. Not only did the fans say he was a passive-aggressive crybaby, but Morey himself went out of his way to say, "I'm sorry you feel bad" (the classic passive-aggressive "apology").
So do I think the franchise is full of KKK racists? No. But do I think there is something there, in the wide spectrum of "totally not racist" to "slave lynchings", that is closer to the latter than the former? Sure.
At any rate, the fan base for sure has shown plenty of indication that they are racist, and I have no qualms calling them out on it. I've watched plenty of Rockets games, and it's surreal the amount of crap they piled on Lin while simultaneously absolving pretty much every single other player on the roster over the past two seasons, and I'm not even talking about the last playoff series against the Blazers.
maybe lin's better than I give him credit for, but he still doesn't seem like a great fit with harden
like, they both want to dominate the ball; harden at his best is practically playing point anyway. Giving Lin up basically for nothing isn't a great move, but would've been worth it to get bosh and like Asik, Lin was sort of redundant for their roster anyway
ed: 'one of the best' catch and shoot guards is a severely aggressive evaluation; he was 10th in true shooting among PGs and did not shoot a particularly good percentage from three. He improved and that's good, but he improved from frankly fairly bad to league average.
also the idea that the team that's been on the leading edge of the league's chinese/asian marketing for basically the entirety of recent memory is somehow racist against chinese or asian players is fucking dumb. There's nothing else to call it.
Eat it You Nasty Pig. on
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
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MsAnthropyThe Lady of Pain Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the RhythmThe City of FlowersRegistered Userregular
Is it me or does all that stat stuff just suck the fun out of the room for you guys too?
Why would it? I mean, the analytics stuff is that it can either reveal things that you would not notice by just casually watching a game, put things you have seen that don't fall into standard stats into better context, or point out that some things that are impressive to watch can actually be hindering a team. It shouldn't take away from the enjoyment of watching the game, it should enrich it--just like understanding the physics that produce a sunrise/sunset should enrich your enjoyment of seeing one.
the biggest trap people fall into with stats like that (and one of the reasons people wind up resenting them imo) is that people assume they're predictive; it takes a good team to win a title and a good team to win 60+ games so the idea that the two would be correlated isn't particularly revelatory.
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
like seriously, lin this year and in his "breakout" year he had below average PERs. this guy is a league average player
i'm pretty sure the rockets had realized they had made a mistake signing lin for 3 years instead of dragic for 4 and were looking for any way to dump him to avoid this $15 million cap hit
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
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MsAnthropyThe Lady of Pain Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the RhythmThe City of FlowersRegistered Userregular
the biggest trap people fall into with stats like that (and one of the reasons people wind up resenting them imo) is that people assume they're predictive; it takes a good team to win a title and a good team to win 60+ games so the idea that the two would be correlated isn't particularly revelatory.
True, but any predictive model will necessarily be based off of past data--it's the only thing anyone has to operate off of! Even the informal gut feelings that we all use when making judgment calls on who is likely to win can be viewed as predictive models. A statistically base one is just precise about what it is saying (the article does lay out what the past observed odds of a given 60+win team taking the championship were) and how much uncertainty is involved (although the uncertainty is often underreported in all of these things). Again, knowing how good a team had to be (63-64+ wins!) in the past to have better-than-even shot at a title should only enhance our understanding and appreciation of the game.
also yeah, isn't the coming year the 'poison pill' year that the rockets used to pry him away from new york in the first place? They were probably always going to figure out a way to dump him as an expiring deal since he's going to be like hilariously overpaid even if you think he's a decent player
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
also:
Yeah the problem is that those are demonstrably false. He played virtually the same minutes in 2012-2013 year (32.2 MPG) that he did this year (28.9 per game). He was a literal starter for half the season (owing to Beverley and Harden getting injured) and Houston by and large liked to play a smaller lineup, putting Beverley, Harden, and Lin all out at the same time for extended periods.
when he played a ton of minutes in NY in 2012, he was basically carrying the team without carmelo (and playing a lot more minutes doing so, his avg MPG is lower because of the stretch he didn't play much early in the season). this year, even when playing more minutes with people out, he was hardly ever the top option on the court.
lin's just not great. no knock on the kid. i've been saying this, on these forums, LITERALLY ever since his linsanity run. he can play in the league. he's not a star. they'd much rather dump his $8 mil salary and $15 mil cap hit and get carmelo or bosh and pay beverley $900k
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
his catch and shoot numbers were also boosted immeasurably by having an elite drive and kick scorer (as well as a great center inside). go look at mario chalmers' numbers compared to lin, and tell me if you really think chalmers is a great shooter or if he just played with lebron bosh and wade
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Inquisitor772 x Penny Arcade Fight Club ChampionA fixed point in space and timeRegistered Userregular
maybe lin's better than I give him credit for, but he still doesn't seem like a great fit with harden
like, they both want to dominate the ball; harden at his best is practically playing point anyway. Giving Lin up basically for nothing isn't a great move, but would've been worth it to get bosh and like Asik, Lin was sort of redundant for their roster anyway
ed: 'one of the best' catch and shoot guards is a severely aggressive evaluation; he was 10th in true shooting among PGs and did not shoot a particularly good percentage from three. He improved and that's good, but he improved from frankly fairly bad to league average.
also the idea that the team that's been on the leading edge of the league's chinese/asian marketing for basically the entirety of recent memory is somehow racist against chinese or asian players is fucking dumb. There's nothing else to call it.
You're equating capitalist enterprise with something else entirely. Or do you think that people exploiting cheap black labor and cornering the African market makes then progressive?
But thanks for calling me dumb. Much appreciated.
Also, try to actually read what I wrote, and tell me where anything that I said crosses over with the stuff you're talking about, because I can't see it. I didn't say that the front office said anything untrue. I also didn't say anything about whether or not Lin and Harden are a good fit (I don't think they are, but I think that narrative is overblown). I said that how they went about it is what bothered me.
Maybe if you weren't biased to such a ridiculously simplistic worldview, fewer people would seem "dumb" to you and you'd realize that they are talking over your head.
BTW, since you brought up stats:
Lin was 8th among PGs (with more than 1,000 minutes) last year in TS%. That makes him by definition above-average. He was also 27th in 3P%, with .358. Not great, but also not terrible, considering that's the same percentage as Kyrie Irving, and better than John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Ricky Rubio, Monta Ellis, Russell Westbrook, Michael Carter-Williams, etc. etc. etc.
Do you know who else isn't a world-beating 3-point shooter? James Harden, who had a .366 last year and is a career .369. It is incredibly rare to find anyone who shoots near-or-above .400, and calling out Lin for not doing it is asinine when you aren't doing it for anyone else, let alone anyone else on the same freaking team.
This is the kind of shit that doesn't fly with me. The world is big and complicated. If you are unable or unwilling to engage in that kind of nuance out of fear of big scary labels like "racist" then go back to your hole. Don't try to spray everything with grade-school narratives and expect people to bow down to you because you "spoke the truth" and walk around with your big boy pants on.
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
the way TS% is calculated leads to some weird numbers. if you take a shitload of open threes and hit at a good 40% clip, are good at free throws, and don't take many twos, you can end up way up there
like, jodie meeks is 10th OVERALL in TS%
jodie meeks is not very good
patty mills is 23rd
patty mills is not good enough to be a starting PG
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
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Inquisitor772 x Penny Arcade Fight Club ChampionA fixed point in space and timeRegistered Userregular
the way TS% is calculated leads to some weird numbers. if you take a shitload of open threes and hit at a good 40% clip, are good at free throws, and don't take many twos, you can end up way up there
like, jodie meeks is 10th OVERALL in TS%
jodie meeks is not very good
patty mills is 23rd
patty mills is not good enough to be a starting PG
Yeah I prefer to look at TS% in conjunction with other numbers like eFG% and general usage rate, shots attempted, etc.
The real problem with stats isn't that they are bad, it's that too many people try to use them without context or as some sort of fundamental truth. People used to do that with PER all the time until the old stat-heads yelled at them that you can just throw up shots to increase your PER, so it's not a good number to use in a vacuum.
it's almost as though harden, wall, irving, etc have other skills and/or are used in ways that make up for their poor shooting. For a spot up shooter (which is what houston apparently wanted him to turn into) Lin was average at best and about to have a hugely disproportionate cap number. That's why they dumped him; there's no reason to think houston's treatment of him was the result of latent or active racism, especially considering their specific background.
yes, the world is complicated. That's not an excuse for making a bunch of bullshit up because a player perceived as underperforming caught some media heat
.400 3P% shooters are valuable, but hardly incredibly rare. 25 players in the league did it last year with more than 100 attempts, including 9 point guards (10 if you count kendall marshal, who posted a .399.) The list includes such shooting luminaries as DJ Augustine, Patty Mills and Jodie Meeks.
Eat it You Nasty Pig. on
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
Looks like Melo is staying in NY, and Pau is going to the Bulls.
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
edited July 2014
only a 2 year deal for LeBron with an opt out after 1 year
imagine if he left again.. oh lawd
y2jake215 on
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y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
Ariza to houston for 4 yr/32 mil. surprised, figured he was back in washington if the price tag was that low. looks like parsons may be going to dallas then
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
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MsAnthropyThe Lady of Pain Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the RhythmThe City of FlowersRegistered Userregular
Looks like Melo is staying in NY, and Pau is going to the Bulls.
Poor Bulls fans. Pau is an upgrade over Boozer, true, but by all accounts they already had Mirotic coming over already and their FO still hasn't bothered finding a SG who can both dribble and shoot (and they've needed one for 4+ years!).
Looks like Melo is staying in NY, and Pau is going to the Bulls.
Poor Bulls fans. Pau is an upgrade over Boozer, true, but by all accounts they already had Mirotic coming over already and their FO still hasn't bothered finding a SG who can both dribble and shoot (and they've needed one for 4+ years!).
Who needs ball handlers when Tibs can just grind his players to dust with 80pts/game defense?
I dont get the "cheap" argument. Its demonstraitably false. They were so over the cap last year that dumping dengs and boozers salaries combined barely got them under. How is that "cheap?"
They didnt dump deng and (will) amnesty boozer to save money, they did it to free up money to get better players. I dont get how any team could be considered cheap in a salary cap era. Not throwing money at bad players has little to do with cheap and a lot to do with wanting flexibility to get better.
I do question the pau gasol move because from all accounts, they have 3 solid big men already if Mirotic comes (which he will). And dougy mcbuckets is a stretch 4/large 3 as well. Looks like the bulls will be going big? They also told Taj to prepare to be a starter, so I dont get how noah, pau and taj all fit. And it looks like butler will be playing 200 minutes a game again until hes run down like deng is.
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MsAnthropyThe Lady of Pain Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the Rhythm, Breaks the RhythmThe City of FlowersRegistered Userregular
I dont get the "cheap" argument. Its demonstraitably false. They were so over the cap last year that dumping dengs and boozers salaries combined barely got them under. How is that "cheap?"
They didnt dump deng and (will) amnesty boozer to save money, they did it to free up money to get better players. I dont get how any team could be considered cheap in a salary cap era. Not throwing money at bad players has little to do with cheap and a lot to do with wanting flexibility to get better.
I do question the pau gasol move because from all accounts, they have 3 solid big men already if Mirotic comes (which he will). And dougy mcbuckets is a stretch 4/large 3 as well. Looks like the bulls will be going big? They also told Taj to prepare to be a starter, so I dont get how noah, pau and taj all fit. And it looks like butler will be playing 200 minutes a game again until hes run down like deng is.
Yeah. The main issue is they don't seem to have spent money very wisely. They haven't had a starting caliber 2 during any part of Thibs' tenure (Butler is definitely more of a 3 playing out of position), and haven't generally bothered finding a decent back-up point guard during that time either. If Rose returns to form, they'll do well in the regular season, but it will just take a decent trapping scheme or a team with the rare 2-3 that can guard him to shut their entire offense down.
I wonder if the FO there thinks they are playing 2k, an all-C/PF lineup can dominate in that.
They haven't been able to get that secondary scorer but I wouldn't say they haven't spent money wisely. Noah and raj are on very team friendly deals. They get guys like dunleavy and dj and Nate and Marco for cheap.
The rose injuries really derailed their efforts considering how much money he eats. And Kirk, dj, Nate and Cj are all solid backup pg. the issue is that rose was hurt.
I'd like to see rose and butler on the floor together a bit to see how it will play. In preseason they were insane with advanced metrics as a tandem. Then butker got hurt then rose died again.
Butker and Doug/dunleavy spacing the floor with Noah/pau playmaking with rose could be a solid offende
y2jake215certified Flat Birther theoristthe Last Good Boy onlineRegistered Userregular
Spurs are nowhere near guaranteed champs. The west is so stacked... Remember 8 seed Dallas took them 7. All it takes is an injury to one of their ancient big 3 and they're doomed.
I agree cavs are likely into the finals however. I don't think they're even close to the best team, but they're the best in the east. I see it going cavs, bulls, heat, sleeper bobcats in 4th
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Posts
The next Bosh.
They're getting a shooter in Mike Miller
damnit LeBron!
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-cleveland-would-look-like-with-lebron-james-and-kevin-love/
expected win totals have roughly a +/- 3 margin of error from what I have seen, and 60+ win teams win championships a lot more than 52-54 win teams (which is what CLE would be with just lebron and kyrie [kyrie is crazy fucking overrated as currently skilled, but still only 22])
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-james-shouldnt-stay-in-miami-or-go-to-cleveland/
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
When you are a Mavericks fan, and see that nice dip around the 67 win mark, it certainly does.
Stats are a large part of what make sports fun to me.
The other part is the narrative.
Which probably makes me the worst possible fan of sports.
Nah, they got along fine. I mean, as long as one of them is Jeremy Lin, it's pretty much impossible for them not to get along. They basically gave Beverley Lin's job, and they were BFFs both on and off the court.
The problem is that Harden plays the way everyone used to want LeBron James and Kevin Durant to play (before they realized that kind of play was unsustainable and would destroy the player come playoffs time). He has all the physical properties of a black hole when it comes to the basketball. The only time he ever gives it up is when he absolutely doesn't have a play (i.e., when he drives and there are four guys there and he can't get a foul or when he has done his little shimmy shake move and the defender didn't bite and there are 4 seconds left on the clock but oh well here you go dude your turn).
If you aren't going to implement an actual offense (which the Rockets either couldn't or wouldn't do), nobody else is going to do well in that "system" unless they are premiere pop-up shooters and don't need the ball in their hands to succeed. Lin was pretty much the antithesis of that going into his contract.
The irony here is that by the time this last season rolled around, he went from one of the worst to one of the best catch-and-shoot guards in the league. From NBA.com:
"Lin’s biggest strides came as a shooter as he established career highs in both 3-point percentage (.358) and true shooting percentage (.572). In fact, the Ivy League product’s true shooting figure was 10th among all point guards this season, eclipsing the marks posted by All-Stars Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving. Lin also ranked well above average as a catch-and-shoot threat, knocking down better than 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities from beyond the arc. And not only did Lin improve upon his 3-point accuracy for the fourth consecutive year, he did the same with regard to his finishing touch around the rim where he managed to knock down more than 62 percent of his shots taken from that area this season – this after connecting at a rate of 58.1 and 48.7 percent, respectively, during the prior two seasons."
Lin bent over backwards to accommodate the team's needs, and showed marked, meaningful improvement in basically all areas of his play (especially those they asked him to work on once they signed Harden). He's not the best point/combo guard in basketball, but if you look around at the league at all the selfish guys who only want to do what they do and refuse to improve or be team players, it's hard to fathom why a franchise or a fanbase would trash a player as much as Houston trashed Lin.
Makes you wonder what's going on.
Oh wait, I know what it is. They have Jeremy Lin confused with this Asian guy here on this poster who fixed their computer and says things like "ching chong wang wong". Obviously they are the same guy and can't play basketball.
don't you think that maybe playing fewer minutes and almost exclusively against second units may have helped his numbers, especially compared to guys like kyrie and lillard who had to carry a huge load offensively both in minutes and role
you know, instead of believing an entire organization, one that focuses heavily on advanced stats and finding undervalued assets, is racist
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
Yep, especially the Rockets of all organizations. The #7 thing was stupid, but moving Lin to bring in Bosh would've been a major +++ move. Lin could be a starting PG somewhere, but it's understandable that Beverly/Harden was the preferred 1/2, especially after the playoffs last season.
And lol @ criticizing Bosh's defense. I wonder what it's like to support the Heat for the last 4 years, and still complain about everything they're actually good at compared to everyone else.
Yeah the problem is that those are demonstrably false. He played virtually the same minutes in 2012-2013 year (32.2 MPG) that he did this year (28.9 per game). He was a literal starter for half the season (owing to Beverley and Harden getting injured) and Houston by and large liked to play a smaller lineup, putting Beverley, Harden, and Lin all out at the same time for extended periods.
Also, there's a huge body of evidence that shows that the "bench lineup vs. starter lineup" dichotomy is untrue, for variety of reasons (largely doing with the fact that there's no such thing as playing only your starters and then rotating to only your reserves, and that basketball is a team sport).
I don't believe the entire organization or fan-base is overtly racist. The front office probably doesn't care either way, and McHale's decisions owe largely to his weaknesses as a coach rather than any racial bias (although I do think there is some of that there in the sense that everyone downplayed Lin's abilities up to his breakout season). I do think that the franchise as a whole has largely taken him for granted and put out face-saving narratives for their own benefit while expecting him to take it in stride and be a good company man. For example, I don't think the front office believes that Beverley is a better player (even on defense) than Lin is. But I do think that they believe Beverley is nearly as good a player, particularly given Harden's presence, and that he can be had at literally a fraction of the price and for the duration of the H&H contention window. But saying that there is some sort of "battle" for the PG position at the start of the year was disingenuous given they wanted to have Beverley play as many minutes as possible so that he would be ready to go for the next several years, instead of having him relegated to the bench and not getting the development he needed. Similarly, the idea that Lin would be playing "6th man" was also disingenuous when you actually looked at McHale's rotations (which largely made no sense) - the only reason Lin got so many minutes was because Beverley and Harden were out for extended periods of time, and the team went with small lineups in general. It had nothing to do with leading the bench or being the 6th man. The assumption that you would take a guy whom you signed as a starter and a heavily-featured player, and then demote him in such an overt manner, and then throw out such a pandering narrative, would have been absurd had he not been Asian. Nobody would have blamed him for calling them out on it, but instead he took it in stride. And if you're looking for an indication on how they would've reacted if he had said something, look at what happened when Lin threw out a freaking Bible verse in response to the Melo number ridiculousness. Not only did the fans say he was a passive-aggressive crybaby, but Morey himself went out of his way to say, "I'm sorry you feel bad" (the classic passive-aggressive "apology").
So do I think the franchise is full of KKK racists? No. But do I think there is something there, in the wide spectrum of "totally not racist" to "slave lynchings", that is closer to the latter than the former? Sure.
At any rate, the fan base for sure has shown plenty of indication that they are racist, and I have no qualms calling them out on it. I've watched plenty of Rockets games, and it's surreal the amount of crap they piled on Lin while simultaneously absolving pretty much every single other player on the roster over the past two seasons, and I'm not even talking about the last playoff series against the Blazers.
like, they both want to dominate the ball; harden at his best is practically playing point anyway. Giving Lin up basically for nothing isn't a great move, but would've been worth it to get bosh and like Asik, Lin was sort of redundant for their roster anyway
ed: 'one of the best' catch and shoot guards is a severely aggressive evaluation; he was 10th in true shooting among PGs and did not shoot a particularly good percentage from three. He improved and that's good, but he improved from frankly fairly bad to league average.
also the idea that the team that's been on the leading edge of the league's chinese/asian marketing for basically the entirety of recent memory is somehow racist against chinese or asian players is fucking dumb. There's nothing else to call it.
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
Why would it? I mean, the analytics stuff is that it can either reveal things that you would not notice by just casually watching a game, put things you have seen that don't fall into standard stats into better context, or point out that some things that are impressive to watch can actually be hindering a team. It shouldn't take away from the enjoyment of watching the game, it should enrich it--just like understanding the physics that produce a sunrise/sunset should enrich your enjoyment of seeing one.
"The only real politics I knew was that if a guy liked Hitler, I’d beat the stuffing out of him and that would be it." -- Jack Kirby
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
i'm pretty sure the rockets had realized they had made a mistake signing lin for 3 years instead of dragic for 4 and were looking for any way to dump him to avoid this $15 million cap hit
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
True, but any predictive model will necessarily be based off of past data--it's the only thing anyone has to operate off of! Even the informal gut feelings that we all use when making judgment calls on who is likely to win can be viewed as predictive models. A statistically base one is just precise about what it is saying (the article does lay out what the past observed odds of a given 60+win team taking the championship were) and how much uncertainty is involved (although the uncertainty is often underreported in all of these things). Again, knowing how good a team had to be (63-64+ wins!) in the past to have better-than-even shot at a title should only enhance our understanding and appreciation of the game.
"The only real politics I knew was that if a guy liked Hitler, I’d beat the stuffing out of him and that would be it." -- Jack Kirby
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
when he played a ton of minutes in NY in 2012, he was basically carrying the team without carmelo (and playing a lot more minutes doing so, his avg MPG is lower because of the stretch he didn't play much early in the season). this year, even when playing more minutes with people out, he was hardly ever the top option on the court.
lin's just not great. no knock on the kid. i've been saying this, on these forums, LITERALLY ever since his linsanity run. he can play in the league. he's not a star. they'd much rather dump his $8 mil salary and $15 mil cap hit and get carmelo or bosh and pay beverley $900k
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
You're equating capitalist enterprise with something else entirely. Or do you think that people exploiting cheap black labor and cornering the African market makes then progressive?
But thanks for calling me dumb. Much appreciated.
Also, try to actually read what I wrote, and tell me where anything that I said crosses over with the stuff you're talking about, because I can't see it. I didn't say that the front office said anything untrue. I also didn't say anything about whether or not Lin and Harden are a good fit (I don't think they are, but I think that narrative is overblown). I said that how they went about it is what bothered me.
Maybe if you weren't biased to such a ridiculously simplistic worldview, fewer people would seem "dumb" to you and you'd realize that they are talking over your head.
BTW, since you brought up stats:
Lin was 8th among PGs (with more than 1,000 minutes) last year in TS%. That makes him by definition above-average. He was also 27th in 3P%, with .358. Not great, but also not terrible, considering that's the same percentage as Kyrie Irving, and better than John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Ricky Rubio, Monta Ellis, Russell Westbrook, Michael Carter-Williams, etc. etc. etc.
Do you know who else isn't a world-beating 3-point shooter? James Harden, who had a .366 last year and is a career .369. It is incredibly rare to find anyone who shoots near-or-above .400, and calling out Lin for not doing it is asinine when you aren't doing it for anyone else, let alone anyone else on the same freaking team.
This is the kind of shit that doesn't fly with me. The world is big and complicated. If you are unable or unwilling to engage in that kind of nuance out of fear of big scary labels like "racist" then go back to your hole. Don't try to spray everything with grade-school narratives and expect people to bow down to you because you "spoke the truth" and walk around with your big boy pants on.
like, jodie meeks is 10th OVERALL in TS%
jodie meeks is not very good
patty mills is 23rd
patty mills is not good enough to be a starting PG
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
Yeah I prefer to look at TS% in conjunction with other numbers like eFG% and general usage rate, shots attempted, etc.
The real problem with stats isn't that they are bad, it's that too many people try to use them without context or as some sort of fundamental truth. People used to do that with PER all the time until the old stat-heads yelled at them that you can just throw up shots to increase your PER, so it's not a good number to use in a vacuum.
yes, the world is complicated. That's not an excuse for making a bunch of bullshit up because a player perceived as underperforming caught some media heat
.400 3P% shooters are valuable, but hardly incredibly rare. 25 players in the league did it last year with more than 100 attempts, including 9 point guards (10 if you count kendall marshal, who posted a .399.) The list includes such shooting luminaries as DJ Augustine, Patty Mills and Jodie Meeks.
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
imagine if he left again.. oh lawd
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
Poor Bulls fans. Pau is an upgrade over Boozer, true, but by all accounts they already had Mirotic coming over already and their FO still hasn't bothered finding a SG who can both dribble and shoot (and they've needed one for 4+ years!).
"The only real politics I knew was that if a guy liked Hitler, I’d beat the stuffing out of him and that would be it." -- Jack Kirby
Who needs ball handlers when Tibs can just grind his players to dust with 80pts/game defense?
This is due to the upcoming TV Deal, the cap being raised, and him being able to get more money in a long term deal in 2 years.
the extremely cheap FO ain't helpin either
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
They didnt dump deng and (will) amnesty boozer to save money, they did it to free up money to get better players. I dont get how any team could be considered cheap in a salary cap era. Not throwing money at bad players has little to do with cheap and a lot to do with wanting flexibility to get better.
I do question the pau gasol move because from all accounts, they have 3 solid big men already if Mirotic comes (which he will). And dougy mcbuckets is a stretch 4/large 3 as well. Looks like the bulls will be going big? They also told Taj to prepare to be a starter, so I dont get how noah, pau and taj all fit. And it looks like butler will be playing 200 minutes a game again until hes run down like deng is.
Yeah. The main issue is they don't seem to have spent money very wisely. They haven't had a starting caliber 2 during any part of Thibs' tenure (Butler is definitely more of a 3 playing out of position), and haven't generally bothered finding a decent back-up point guard during that time either. If Rose returns to form, they'll do well in the regular season, but it will just take a decent trapping scheme or a team with the rare 2-3 that can guard him to shut their entire offense down.
I wonder if the FO there thinks they are playing 2k, an all-C/PF lineup can dominate in that.
"The only real politics I knew was that if a guy liked Hitler, I’d beat the stuffing out of him and that would be it." -- Jack Kirby
The rose injuries really derailed their efforts considering how much money he eats. And Kirk, dj, Nate and Cj are all solid backup pg. the issue is that rose was hurt.
I'd like to see rose and butler on the floor together a bit to see how it will play. In preseason they were insane with advanced metrics as a tandem. Then butker got hurt then rose died again.
Butker and Doug/dunleavy spacing the floor with Noah/pau playmaking with rose could be a solid offende
i guess we are getting pretty hyped in cleveland
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
pleasepaypreacher.net
welp
pleasepaypreacher.net
They would still get rolled by the Spurs.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I agree cavs are likely into the finals however. I don't think they're even close to the best team, but they're the best in the east. I see it going cavs, bulls, heat, sleeper bobcats in 4th
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here