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Your new overlord: IBM's Watson on Jeopardy tonight

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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Presumably it was looking at the math and realizing the best chance the humans had to catch up was the daily doubles so was actively looking for them based on statistical records. Which means taking a lot of 1200/1600 dollar clues as they're the most likely to have daily doubles.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    dlinfinitidlinfiniti Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    ken jennings and i are on the same page here
    I wanted him to sound like Darrell Hammon doing Sean Connery on SNL's Celebrity Jeopardy instead. "That'sh not what your mother shaid lasht night, Trebek!"

    dlinfiniti on
    AAAAA!!! PLAAAYGUUU!!!!
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    BubbaT wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    At the end of yesterday's show it appeared that the contestants had watsons number, you could see that they were ringing in immediately the light went on and then thinking while Alex said their name. I bet they were told not to do that today, since Watson obliterated them.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they were told to back off. Watching Jennings and Rutter answer is totally not the point of this whole thing. We already know they can answer Jeopardy questions by deciphering plain human language. We want to see if Watson can too, and obviously the answer is yes.

    What's disappointing is how simple all the clues have been. Not just in terms of content (Jeopardy's gotten progressively easier over the last decade), but in terms of format. There's been little to none of the clues based around puns, homonyms, before & after (eg, Tom Cruise Missile), etc., - the exact types of "natural language" answers that were supposed to really test Watson.

    Not that it really matters for tech demo purposes. No one who actually needs Watson's help is going to be asking for it with puns.

    It is certainly true, none of the questions have been of the sort where I don't even know what sort of thing they are asking until I hear the answer which is very common on Jeopardy on a normal day. I'd like to see them throw out something really hard though. Tom Cruise Missile would be a perfect example, something like a 'Star Weaponry' category. Where the answer itself and the question make no sense considered in isolation.

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    That would be Before & After, which Ken says he's seen Watson sweep.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    That would be Before & After, which Ken says he's seen Watson sweep.

    I still think that 'irrational' answers have to be his weak point, since they don't make sense without a complete understanding of clue and answer and category. The questions we've seen so far have all been solvable with a vaguely logic understanding of language.

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    The WolfmanThe Wolfman Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    I'm disappointed to learn that Watson is specifically programmed to not pull a Cliff Clavin bet on FJ.

    On the other hand, I love that he's predisposed to bet like a dick and win by a buck.

    The Wolfman on
    "The sausage of Green Earth explodes with flavor like the cannon of culinary delight."
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Shock, it bets like almost everyone on Jeopardy ever! Maximize your days on show, not earnings.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    tofutofu Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    To everyone saying Jeopardy/IBM told contestants to "ease off"
    FUNNY BUSINESS?
    Q. Given that it is in IBM's (marketing) interest for Watson to win, what sort of oversight (if any) exists to make sure that Watson isn't getting the questions provided to him ahead of time or any funny business isn't taking place?

    A. KEN JENNINGS :
    Not rigging a quiz show in America isn't just a good idea--IT'S THE LAW. Since the scandals of the 50s, it's actually been made a felony to screw around with the outcome of a game show. There was VERY careful oversight (an independent auditor) on every aspect of gameplay here. Plus, from IBM's point of view, this is a research experiment. (Well, and a PR bonanza.) They don't want their data tainted either.

    tofu on
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    jimbo034jimbo034 Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Is anyone else hoping they have an AI in fiction category tonight?

    jimbo034 on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Yeah, I think it's mostly Ken's point about computers being able to work faster than us on the whole buzzer thing. I mean, these aren't even tournament of champions level questions for the most part (though last night's categories were not favorable for me) so with Ken and Brad it's just a matter of buzzing.

    Which makes this an interesting tech demo, but not great TV.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    BubbaTBubbaT Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    That would be Before & After, which Ken says he's seen Watson sweep.

    He also says IBM did a lot of work specifically targeted at wordplay categories. Which makes it all the more disappointing that we're not seeing Watson actually get to try them.

    BubbaT on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    They're not that frequent and they didn't rig the categories for obvious reasons related to the US penal code. We'll see what comes up tonight.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Even if they tweaked the hell out of this thing, I doubt it could do as well on a You Don't Know Jack-styled show as it does on Jeopardy. The questions in Jeopardy are all phrased in a very specific way, without pop-culture obfuscation added to confuse the query.

    joshofalltrades on
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    BubbaTBubbaT Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    They're not that frequent and they didn't rig the categories for obvious reasons related to the US penal code. We'll see what comes up tonight.

    Does this even qualify as a real quiz show? Is Watson going to get the money/prizes if he wins?
    For the purposes of this section--

    (1) The term "contest'' means any contest broadcast by a radio station in connection with which any money or any other thing of value is offered as a prize or prizes to be paid or presented by the program sponsor or by any other person or persons, as announced in the course of the broadcast.
    http://law.justia.com/us/codes/title47/47usc509.html

    BubbaT on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    The humans get half their winnings, so yes.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    LaOsLaOs SaskatoonRegistered User regular
    edited February 2011
    The humans get half their winnings, so yes.

    I'd say so.

    LaOs on
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    MetroidZoidMetroidZoid Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    So I know it's a very small part of this, but Watson can hear and understand anybody talking to him? Like, when they were showing the test Jeopardy sparrings, and the not-Trebek host told him it was wrong, does Watson input that or is it fed to him digitally?

    E: Also, I want to see Watson guest on other game shows. Specifically, Wheel of Fortune, Hollywood Squares, and the Dating Game.

    MetroidZoid on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    It's fed to him digitally. Watson is blind and deaf, so the only exception to the meddling is that all audio and visual clues are eliminated.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Yeah, I think it's mostly Ken's point about computers being able to work faster than us on the whole buzzer thing. I mean, these aren't even tournament of champions level questions for the most part (though last night's categories were not favorable for me) so with Ken and Brad it's just a matter of buzzing.

    Which makes this an interesting tech demo, but not great TV.

    Yeah, as interesting as it is from a Com Sci perspective, the game itself is pretty boring to watch.

    It was good the first day by the end, when it looked like it would tighten up, but by the second day it was just "Watson always buzzes in first and gets the right answer 99% of the time".

    shryke on
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    tofutofu Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    BubbaT wrote: »
    They're not that frequent and they didn't rig the categories for obvious reasons related to the US penal code. We'll see what comes up tonight.

    Does this even qualify as a real quiz show? Is Watson going to get the money/prizes if he wins?
    For the purposes of this section--

    (1) The term "contest'' means any contest broadcast by a radio station in connection with which any money or any other thing of value is offered as a prize or prizes to be paid or presented by the program sponsor or by any other person or persons, as announced in the course of the broadcast.
    http://law.justia.com/us/codes/title47/47usc509.html

    Half of the humans' winnings go to charity while all of Watson's does

    tofu on
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Even if they tweaked the hell out of this thing, I doubt it could do as well on a You Don't Know Jack-styled show as it does on Jeopardy. The questions in Jeopardy are all phrased in a very specific way, without pop-culture obfuscation added to confuse the query.

    That could make for an interesting Game With Fame when YDKJ comes out.

    AngelHedgie on
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    TheCanManTheCanMan GT: Gasman122009 JerseyRegistered User regular
    edited February 2011
    MagicPrime wrote: »
    This reminds me of the style of computer from Star Trek. Maybe not a true A.I. but a 100% interactive and adaptable database.

    In the NOVA special, the lead IBM guy actually said that that's his ultimate goal.

    TheCanMan on
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    shryke wrote: »
    Yeah, I think it's mostly Ken's point about computers being able to work faster than us on the whole buzzer thing. I mean, these aren't even tournament of champions level questions for the most part (though last night's categories were not favorable for me) so with Ken and Brad it's just a matter of buzzing.

    Which makes this an interesting tech demo, but not great TV.

    Yeah, as interesting as it is from a Com Sci perspective, the game itself is pretty boring to watch.

    It was good the first day by the end, when it looked like it would tighten up, but by the second day it was just "Watson always buzzes in first and gets the right answer 99% of the time".

    Indeed, I think what we've shown here is that all three contestants are equally quick to think of the answer, probably equally likely to be right and that Watson is faster at pushing a buzzer.

    Now, the fact that Watson is so great at jeopardy is amazing, but it's not very interesting.

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    MKRMKR Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    I've noticed something:
    When Watson has 3 substantially below the line, the correct answer tends to be the third highest answer. You'd think it would pick up on that.

    MKR on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    I really liked that final jeopardy clue. Requires some knowledge and lateral thinking. Kind of impressive Watson got it.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    MKR wrote: »
    I've noticed something:
    When Watson has 3 substantially below the line, the correct answer tends to be the third highest answer. You'd think it would pick up on that.

    thats the kind of false pattern humans will fall for but not computers

    nexuscrawler on
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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    ahaha

    I love Ken Jennings

    Xaquin on
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    MKRMKR Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    MKR wrote: »
    I've noticed something:
    When Watson has 3 substantially below the line, the correct answer tends to be the third highest answer. You'd think it would pick up on that.

    thats the kind of false pattern humans will fall for but not computers

    You calling me fallible?

    Those are fighting words.

    Fisticuffs at noon.

    Ok maybe with gloves.

    Ok never mind.

    MKR on
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    DaedalusDaedalus Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    It's fed to him digitally. Watson is blind and deaf, so the only exception to the meddling is that all audio and visual clues are eliminated.

    For the record, they will do this for any blind/deaf contestant.

    Daedalus on
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    MetroidZoidMetroidZoid Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    MKR wrote: »
    MKR wrote: »
    I've noticed something:
    When Watson has 3 substantially below the line, the correct answer tends to be the third highest answer. You'd think it would pick up on that.

    thats the kind of false pattern humans will fall for but not computers

    You calling me fallible?

    Those are fighting words.

    Fisticuffs at noon.

    Ok maybe with gloves.

    Ok never mind.

    Cables at dawn, good sir

    MetroidZoid on
    9UsHUfk.jpgSteam
    3DS FC: 4699-5714-8940 Playing Pokemon, add me! Ho, SATAN!
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    The WolfmanThe Wolfman Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Wow.
    1: Even though he won in the end, Watson really fumbled today. A metric ton of questions he didn't know, and wasn't even close on in his calculations. Still, bloody amazing either way, and hey, nobody knows everything. :P

    2. Did anybody else get a glimpse of Ken and Brad when Watson got the second DD? You could just see the "Aw fuck move they did. :)

    3. Ken Jennings is a God. :D

    The Wolfman on
    "The sausage of Green Earth explodes with flavor like the cannon of culinary delight."
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    randombattlerandombattle Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Wow.
    1: Even though he won in the end, Watson really fumbled today. A metric ton of questions he didn't know, and wasn't even close on in his calculations. Still, bloody amazing either way, and hey, nobody knows everything. :P

    2. Did anybody else get a glimpse of Ken and Brad when Watson got the second DD? You could just see the "Aw fuck move they did. :)

    3. Ken Jennings is a God. :D

    Ken was really smashing that button today.

    randombattle on
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    SammyFSammyF Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    It was super fucking impressive, but contrary to IBM's suggestion that one of the key areas where this sort of open question technology would be useful is in medicine, I'm still pretty sure I don't want my healthcare managed by a set of algorithms that came up with "Toronto" as an answer in the category "U.S. Cities."

    Although within another few years of actually refining the algorithms and also tailoring a system to a specific application like medicine, I can possibly see myself changing my mind.

    SammyF on
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    RBachRBach Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    It's not like they were saying it's ready for that use right this instant. Like you said, give it a couple/few more years for development.

    RBach on
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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    SammyFSammyF Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    RBach wrote: »
    It's not like they were saying it's ready for that use right this instant. Like you said, give it a couple/few more years for development.

    Right.

    Although based on the Legal E's category, I would totally expect it to ace the MBE portion of the Virginia State Bar Exam if it took it tomorrow. Eminent Domain? Alright, that one's easy. Escalator clauses? Holy shit.

    Edit: Oh God. Think of the tens of thousands of unemployed paralegals who wouldn't be able to find work in Manhattan. Times Square would be like Tahrir Square, only instead of shoes they'll be flinging soy lattes.

    SammyF on
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    tofutofu Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Anyone have a link for tonight's game? I missed it

    tofu on
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    FyreWulffFyreWulff YouRegistered User, ClubPA regular
    edited February 2011
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    tofutofu Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Thanks!

    tofu on
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    RikushixRikushix VancouverRegistered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Wow, Ken. Genius.

    Rikushix on
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    chiasaur11chiasaur11 Never doubt a raccoon. Do you think it's trademarked?Registered User regular
    edited February 2011
    Rikushix wrote: »
    Wow, Ken. Genius.

    Saw him scribbling in Final Jeopardy.

    Never guessed what he was pulling.

    Although given how the other guy was sucking up with his charity, I figure Ken knew he had to hedge his bets.

    chiasaur11 on
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