Generally what I hear about Taiwan is that reunification is more or less a matter of time before it happens and China is perfectly willing to wait for it to happen.
Its places like western china that's more of an issue.
Especially since China and Taiwan have mutually restarted economic ties like allowing investment in each others' companies and direct travel.
The most likely flareup with China is over islands and exclusive economic zones.
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"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Have we gone over how this might relate to China and Taiwan? Interesting to consider.
It doesn't, except in that China might make a play for it if the U.S. became heavily entangled in Europe
The ROC and PRC both claim to be the same entity, Ukraine and Russia claim to be separate nations, with one further asserting whole or partial sovereignty over the other
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Der Waffle MousBlame this on the misfortune of your birth.New Yark, New Yark.Registered Userregular
Generally what I hear about Taiwan is that reunification is more or less a matter of time before it happens and China is perfectly willing to wait for it to happen.
Its places like western china that's more of an issue.
Especially since China and Taiwan have mutually restarted economic ties like allowing investment in each others' companies and direct travel.
The most likely flareup with China is over islands and exclusive economic zones.
Right, that's what I was forgetting about. Stuff like the Spratley Islands and their recent tantruming over exclusive airspace.
Goddamnit. If Putin tries this either he's right in his (apparent) assumption that neither the US or any major player in Europe will offer military or even financial assistance to Ukraine and he'll eventually seize all of Ukraine (Although I am kind of doubtful about what Russia's long term ability to actually hold onto the land would be, not getting into how much difficulty Russia would have totally subduing the Ukrainian armed forces.), or he's wrong about previously mentioned assumption and this might escalate to the point of putting Russian/European+US relations back into Cold War levels of frostiness. Either way Putin would be starting the first large-scale war between two heavily industrialized nations in decades. Which, you know, is pretty awful.
Generally what I hear about Taiwan is that reunification is more or less a matter of time before it happens and China is perfectly willing to wait for it to happen.
Its places like western china that's more of an issue.
Uh
I dunno who you've been talking to
but there is a very very significant percentage of people that want China to fuck right off.
The current Chinese government has never run a damn thing in Taiwan, and their current influence is negligible, if present at all.
There are tons of differences between the relations of China/Taiwan and the relations of Russia/Ukraine. Perhaps the biggest differences between the two situations are that Taiwan only managed to maintain its independence due to the protection of the US and that the Taiwan/China split wasn't considered legal by either party at the time (Although the government of Taiwan eventually changed their minds on that issue once they realized they had no chance in hell of ever regaining control of mainland China.), while Ukraine's vote to become independent following the Soviet Union was accepted legally.
Further worth mentioning that the governments in charge of both China and Taiwan don't look anything like the governments that were in charge when the split first occurred!
For starters, the Taiwanese Government is now actually legitimately elected!
(And it only took them until 1981 to get started on that!)
Taiwan's history is fascinating and heart-wrenching and I love that little island and the many different people that live there so much.
At this point it would actually be a relief for something to just go one way or another here. I feel like I'm in an anxiety pressure-cooker.
Is it too much to ask for Putin to pull a Sadam Hussein and just go "Oh, nothing to see here, never mind!" and march his troops home while pretending it was one big overblown western misunderstanding?
Besides the unethical and unlawful nature of Russia's actions, allowing Putin to do this (If he continues to ramp up military action in what can only appear as preparing an attempt to invade Ukraine.) also sets a bad precedent and may encourage him to pull future stunts in the future. It (rightfully) puts the rest of eastern Europe on edge, and is yet another example of the flaws and weaknesses of the UN. (Namely in this case that the whole "members of the Security Council get veto powers" thing continues to be hinder the UN's ability to respond to unlawful military action.)
Now, I'm almost completely certain that Putin doesn't want this to escalate uncontrollably. I suspect, as has been suggested before, that the recent Russian aggression on Ukraine's border is an attempt to make Crimean annexation seem like the lesser of two evils. I continue to find it hard to believe Putin would actually invade and attempt to annex the entirety of Ukraine, both because it'd be a logistical nightmare and because it'd put the rest of Europe in a position where they'd be hard-pressed to not escalate the conflict. I don't know where the line in the sand is exactly, but that definitely feels like that would be crossing it.
China abstaining seems like a pragmatic move in that they realized Russia was just going to veto the UN motion, and this way they can more easily stay out of it without antagonizing anyone.
I find it hard to believe that Putin would invade the Ukraine because the Ukrainian army is no pushover, and the Russian economic ability to support an army engaged like that is rather unstable. That isn't to say that he wouldn't do it, just that there are reasons why they'd not be able to actually call that bluff if the Ukraine attempted to retain the Crimea by force.
I agree that he's probably being aggressive to try and get away with the Crimea by itself, though. But it does depend on the Ukraine's response. If they don't budge, then this could get even hotter.
Yeah, I'm kind of at the "Shit or get off the pot already" phase of this waiting game. Seeing the Sword of Damocles hang over 40 million people every day is tiring.
Admittedly the popular wisdom right now is they're waiting until Crimea votes to join* before they move one way or the other. Will they go further? Well they've certainly been posturing like they might. Between saying they need to consider protesters'** requests for Russia to come in, and the hint that Ukrainian Succession from the USSR "wasn't entirely legal".
I don't even get why they resorted to this, beyond vague feelings of paranoia and pride. They could probably have got what they wanted through applying the economic squeeze first and watch the Kiev Government collapse.
*Yes, I have that little faith in any other decision happening. Between a referendum being organised in ten days and the promise to have the results within two hours of polls closing, I treat the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
**All those pro-Russian people in Kharkiv and Donetsk who totally weren't either paid or bussed in.
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PiptheFairFrequently not in boats.Registered Userregular
Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine in a referendum that most of the world has condemned as illegal. Early results – when 50% of the votes were counted – showed that 95.5% of ballots were in favour of joining Russia.
As the results rolled in, they were met with neither surprise nor welcome by the west. Russian president Vladimir Putin told Barack Obama in a phone call on Sunday night that the referendum endorsing Crimea becoming part of Russia was legal and should be accepted, according to the Kremlin. However, Obama said that the US rejected the results and warned that Washington was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow over the crisis.
It is illegal because Ukrainian law says if a section wants to secede the entire country has to vote on it, not just the part that wants to leave. As far as I understand it, the vote only went to some Ukrainians in Crimea, and even then the tartars and a few others were left out.
i mean at most you're gonna get 4 out of 5 dentists to agree on gum
There is a comedic panel show on tv in Australia called the Gruen Transfer. They had a segment where they talked about claims like that in adverts, and they registered a business name "Nine out of ten experts", then offered to agree with anyone, for a nominal fee of course!
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Indie Winterdie KräheRudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered Userregular
Many of the Tatars and pro-Ukrainians boycotted the vote anyway. There was also a neat thing going around Twitter showing a Russian citizen, reporting for the UK, who was allowed to vote.
There was no option on the ballot to support the status quo (whoops, like Centi already said). Also, the voting wasn't done in secret in at least a few places.
so russia is just making up reasons to invade the crimea, in the most transparent fashion imaginable
does that have any impact on anybody, aside from actual russians? can barack obama just, like, give a speech calling him out on it and explaining that economic sanctions will continue as planned?
because it seems like the only thing preventing putin from straight-up militarily annexing the whole of eastern europe is fear of western reprisal. i guess the question i'm asking (and that i honestly don't know the answer to) is, does a fake referendum has any real impact on NATO countries' ability to or likelihood of issuing economic sanctions, or whatever tools it is that are available to them?
so russia is just making up reasons to invade the crimea, in the most transparent fashion imaginable
does that have any impact on anybody, aside from actual russians? can barack obama just, like, give a speech calling him out on it and explaining that economic sanctions will continue as planned?
because it seems like the only thing preventing putin from straight-up militarily annexing the whole of eastern europe is fear of western reprisal. i guess the question i'm asking (and that i honestly don't know the answer to) is, does a fake referendum has any real impact on NATO countries' ability to or likelihood of issuing economic sanctions, or whatever tools it is that are available to them?
The US, UK, France, Canada and (I think) Germany have rejected the referendum because it was neither fair nor free, and held with foreign troops on the ground. They're not going to let the referendum put them off.
Not that Putin cares. Lots of this is a show for the internal Russian audience.
I learned today that Russia invited representatives of European far-right parties to act as "observers" during the referendum. Among those observers was a guy who was convicted of re-engagement in National Socialist activities in an Austrian court.
that article seemed poor quality to me. some interesting stuff on the fascist section, but i felt some of the rest of it was slanted, or making unfounded leading assumptions.
Posts
Especially since China and Taiwan have mutually restarted economic ties like allowing investment in each others' companies and direct travel.
The most likely flareup with China is over islands and exclusive economic zones.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
It doesn't, except in that China might make a play for it if the U.S. became heavily entangled in Europe
The ROC and PRC both claim to be the same entity, Ukraine and Russia claim to be separate nations, with one further asserting whole or partial sovereignty over the other
Right, that's what I was forgetting about. Stuff like the Spratley Islands and their recent tantruming over exclusive airspace.
Goddamnit. If Putin tries this either he's right in his (apparent) assumption that neither the US or any major player in Europe will offer military or even financial assistance to Ukraine and he'll eventually seize all of Ukraine (Although I am kind of doubtful about what Russia's long term ability to actually hold onto the land would be, not getting into how much difficulty Russia would have totally subduing the Ukrainian armed forces.), or he's wrong about previously mentioned assumption and this might escalate to the point of putting Russian/European+US relations back into Cold War levels of frostiness. Either way Putin would be starting the first large-scale war between two heavily industrialized nations in decades. Which, you know, is pretty awful.
Uh
I dunno who you've been talking to
but there is a very very significant percentage of people that want China to fuck right off.
The current Chinese government has never run a damn thing in Taiwan, and their current influence is negligible, if present at all.
For starters, the Taiwanese Government is now actually legitimately elected!
(And it only took them until 1981 to get started on that!)
Taiwan's history is fascinating and heart-wrenching and I love that little island and the many different people that live there so much.
Russia deploys 10k troops to Ukraine border
Also, from Reuters:
Is it too much to ask for Putin to pull a Sadam Hussein and just go "Oh, nothing to see here, never mind!" and march his troops home while pretending it was one big overblown western misunderstanding?
I wonder if Putin is going to call NATOs bluff?
I wonder if it is a bluff?
Poland have said they won't stand by and, well, I believe that. Poland tends to be very keen in these circumstances.
Now, I'm almost completely certain that Putin doesn't want this to escalate uncontrollably. I suspect, as has been suggested before, that the recent Russian aggression on Ukraine's border is an attempt to make Crimean annexation seem like the lesser of two evils. I continue to find it hard to believe Putin would actually invade and attempt to annex the entirety of Ukraine, both because it'd be a logistical nightmare and because it'd put the rest of Europe in a position where they'd be hard-pressed to not escalate the conflict. I don't know where the line in the sand is exactly, but that definitely feels like that would be crossing it.
China abstaining seems like a pragmatic move in that they realized Russia was just going to veto the UN motion, and this way they can more easily stay out of it without antagonizing anyone.
I agree that he's probably being aggressive to try and get away with the Crimea by itself, though. But it does depend on the Ukraine's response. If they don't budge, then this could get even hotter.
Admittedly the popular wisdom right now is they're waiting until Crimea votes to join* before they move one way or the other. Will they go further? Well they've certainly been posturing like they might. Between saying they need to consider protesters'** requests for Russia to come in, and the hint that Ukrainian Succession from the USSR "wasn't entirely legal".
I don't even get why they resorted to this, beyond vague feelings of paranoia and pride. They could probably have got what they wanted through applying the economic squeeze first and watch the Kiev Government collapse.
*Yes, I have that little faith in any other decision happening. Between a referendum being organised in ten days and the promise to have the results within two hours of polls closing, I treat the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
**All those pro-Russian people in Kharkiv and Donetsk who totally weren't either paid or bussed in.
welp
Crimea votes to secede from Ukraine in 'illegal' poll
Steam
There is a comedic panel show on tv in Australia called the Gruen Transfer. They had a segment where they talked about claims like that in adverts, and they registered a business name "Nine out of ten experts", then offered to agree with anyone, for a nominal fee of course!
I'm sorry, I had to find it:
Much self-determination
Wow
they are running the Olympics
does that have any impact on anybody, aside from actual russians? can barack obama just, like, give a speech calling him out on it and explaining that economic sanctions will continue as planned?
because it seems like the only thing preventing putin from straight-up militarily annexing the whole of eastern europe is fear of western reprisal. i guess the question i'm asking (and that i honestly don't know the answer to) is, does a fake referendum has any real impact on NATO countries' ability to or likelihood of issuing economic sanctions, or whatever tools it is that are available to them?
The US, UK, France, Canada and (I think) Germany have rejected the referendum because it was neither fair nor free, and held with foreign troops on the ground. They're not going to let the referendum put them off.
Not that Putin cares. Lots of this is a show for the internal Russian audience.
What the fuck is going on, world
Defence ministers of Ukraine and Russia have agreed upon a truce until the 21 of March.
Kiev Parliament has formally mobilized 40,000 reservists. Travel bans and asset freezes have gone into place onto 21 Ukranian and Russian officials in response to the Crimean occupation.
3DS Friend Code: 0216-0898-6512
Switch Friend Code: SW-7437-1538-7786
make putin look like a bigger idiot please
that article seemed poor quality to me. some interesting stuff on the fascist section, but i felt some of the rest of it was slanted, or making unfounded leading assumptions.