I'm not really worried at all, if Iran gets the bomb they'll probably more openly do the things they've already been doing on the down low that piss us and Israel off knowing they're immune to invasion
and then we'll have to deal with them in terms that don't have a military option on the table if we want something from them
you know, like Obama has been trying to despite Congress doing their very best
I remain unconvinced that Iran actually wants the bomb.
I am, but I'm also pretty sure that they want it for the same reason any sane nation does - as a deterrent.
The thing is, most nations are also smart enough to know that sabre rattling takes on a new component when you own one. For all their faults, leadership in Iran has never really shown they're foolish enough to think that using a nuclear device, or providing the materials for use, would ever work out well for them.
The problem that makes all these anti-Iran arguments seem reasonable is when unstable countries like Pakistan get nuclear weapons. Most leaders know what's at stake. You're just not always going to get rational actors from the kinds of people fanatical enough to start open rebellion.
Remember: Some serious people advocated tactical nuclear attacks against Afghanistan in 2001. For some, there is only one reason to have nuclear weapons and it's not as a deterrent.
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Members of the Bush administration going up at least as far as Cheney advocated and pushed for the use of nuclear attacks in Iraq on Hussein's bunkers.
Openly and in the media.
Iran might want the bomb for deterrent, I'm not discounting that possibility at all, but I see no reason not to take them at face value right now during the negotiations, and everyone in Congress that disagrees makes me think it might be time to start building a shelter or moving to an island somewhere.
They most likely want break-out capacity similar to Japan. In that they have a purely civilian nuclear sector that could make a bomb within a couple days in the event that they want one.
They most likely want break-out capacity similar to Japan. In that they have a purely civilian nuclear sector that could make a bomb within a couple days in the event that they want one.
It always amuses me that there is this list of big bad NUCLEAR POWERS and then a list just about as long of "Effectively Nuclear Powers, ya know, if they cared to".
Nuclear weapons have always had a moderating effect on every single nation that has attained them. 100% of the time.
Israel
I think that was sarcasm. Usually having nukes has a moderating effect on everyone else's behavior.
Also, if Iran does want a nuke, I think it's pretty naive to suppose they only want it for insurance against the US. Their number one goal seems to be displacing Saudi Arabia and Egypt as regional powers.
Nuclear weapons have always had a moderating effect on every single nation that has attained them. 100% of the time.
Israel
I think that was sarcasm. Usually having nukes has a moderating effect on everyone else's behavior.
Also, if Iran does want a nuke, I think it's pretty naive to suppose they only want it for insurance against the US. Their number one goal seems to be displacing Saudi Arabia and Egypt as regional powers.
They most likely want break-out capacity similar to Japan. In that they have a purely civilian nuclear sector that could make a bomb within a couple days in the event that they want one.
It always amuses me that there is this list of big bad NUCLEAR POWERS and then a list just about as long of "Effectively Nuclear Powers, ya know, if they cared to".
To be fair, most of the countries on the breakout list don't have nukes only because they are already under someone else's nuclear umbrella. Why buy the cow, etc.
I don't want Iran to have a nuke, just because proliferation is bad. I certainly get why they want them / feel they need them. If I had to choose though, I'd much rather Iran having them than Pakistan.
Congress is so disappointingly, pathetically horrible. It seems like every time I think they can't get any worse, they manage to find a new low. The part that bugs me the most is that they aren't - and probably won't - have to pay for it. They get to act like assholes with no consequences, and at worst they are only buying more time for their buddies to get rich / live with low taxes while the country falls apart.
Although, if you've driven through Ohio on I-75, Boehner's district sure has been putting a lot of money into their highways. Some massive freeway spending in the podunk areas all the way between Dayton and Findlay. Which - to be fair - I wouldn't mind if it was getting spread around. Pork and earmarks make the government work, because at least the bribes normally get back to the citizenry one way or the other.
I remain unconvinced that Iran actually wants the bomb.
Oh, make no mistake. They want a deterrent threat. The question is how much are they willing to risk to attain it.
At the end of the day they are probably looking at American and Isreali conservatives and saying "if the stars align it won't matter whether or not we are trying to build a bomb, only if we have built one"
Their idea of negotiations is to probably stand on the chair scream "AMERICA IS GREAT, FUCK YOU, DO WHAT WE SAY", flip the table, then walk out, thinking they are totes badass when in reality they are just unhinged nutjobs who need psychiatric holds.
Their idea of negotiations is to probably stand on the chair scream "AMERICA IS GREAT, FUCK YOU, DO WHAT WE SAY", flip the table, then walk out, thinking they are totes badass when in reality they are just unhinged nutjobs who need psychiatric holds.
"Those silly Iranians can't tell Americans apart. At the negotiations they thought Kif here was the statesman and I was a jabbering mental patient."
I remain unconvinced that Iran actually wants the bomb.
Oh, make no mistake. They want a deterrent threat. The question is how much are they willing to risk to attain it.
At the end of the day they are probably looking at American and Isreali conservatives and saying "if the stars align it won't matter whether or not we are trying to build a bomb, only if we have built one"
To be fair, it probably won't matter if they have, either - if anyone rolls in, it'd probably be the US. A strategic weapon only works if you can deliver it at sufficient range, which they can't, and it's been decades since the US had engaged in the types of movements that tactical weapons were conceived to defend against.
They could hit a base, or maybe a carrier group, but there will be no Normandy landing, no large bomber formations, only inefficient uses of the weapons. They could take the inefficient use to make a point, but that would probably only bring the hammer down harder. They'd probably have better luck tossing it on one of their own cities and hoping enough people blame the US to destabilize our network of allies.
I'm pretty sure the idea isn't that the bomb the US, because they're on the other side of the world but they bomb the fuck out of Israel which is right nearby.
any country that did would have maybe 24 hours to get out and go before the rest of the world turns them into a crater.
pretty much what I've been saying this entire stupid situation.
No nation, no matter how crazy someone thinks it is, will never use an atomic bomb in this day and age, because it would instantly galvanize the entire whole goddamn world against you.
The only nuclear threat that exists in the world is some crazy person blowing up a truckload of irradiated medical waste, because its alarming how blasé many places are about dealing with the stuff. (Wasn't a truckload of the stuff stolen last year in Mexico? and the dumbass thief broke open the containers, and the cops didn't even bother looking for him because he'd have gotten such a huge dose of radiation that he was most likely dead by the time they found the truck?)
But that's just a dirty bomb, that's not a city busting atomic.
any country that did would have maybe 24 hours to get out and go before the rest of the world turns them into a crater.
Yea, a government that can expect to be in power tomorrow wouldn't do it because it would spell their downfall. Of course, when the US declares war on them they don't have much reason to not order the strike....and the US will totally get a huge portion of the blame for what was an utterly predictable outcome.
Nukes are a deadman's switch deal. You don't use the when your country is working just fine, you use it when it's collapsing and fuck it what more can they do to you?
Nukes are a deadman's switch deal. You don't use the when your country is working just fine, you use it when it's collapsing and fuck it what more can they do to you?
Nukes are a deadman's switch deal. You don't use the when your country is working just fine, you use it when it's collapsing and fuck it what more can they do to you?
Pakistan has nukes and barely exists as a state anymore.
how many nukes have they launched?
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
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and then we'll have to deal with them in terms that don't have a military option on the table if we want something from them
you know, like Obama has been trying to despite Congress doing their very best
I am, but I'm also pretty sure that they want it for the same reason any sane nation does - as a deterrent.
The thing is, most nations are also smart enough to know that sabre rattling takes on a new component when you own one. For all their faults, leadership in Iran has never really shown they're foolish enough to think that using a nuclear device, or providing the materials for use, would ever work out well for them.
The problem that makes all these anti-Iran arguments seem reasonable is when unstable countries like Pakistan get nuclear weapons. Most leaders know what's at stake. You're just not always going to get rational actors from the kinds of people fanatical enough to start open rebellion.
Remember: Some serious people advocated tactical nuclear attacks against Afghanistan in 2001. For some, there is only one reason to have nuclear weapons and it's not as a deterrent.
Openly and in the media.
Iran might want the bomb for deterrent, I'm not discounting that possibility at all, but I see no reason not to take them at face value right now during the negotiations, and everyone in Congress that disagrees makes me think it might be time to start building a shelter or moving to an island somewhere.
Israel
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
In a recent "documentary", Putin claimed to have toyed with putting Nuclear Forces on alert as he seized Crimea.
pleasepaypreacher.net
It always amuses me that there is this list of big bad NUCLEAR POWERS and then a list just about as long of "Effectively Nuclear Powers, ya know, if they cared to".
I think that was sarcasm. Usually having nukes has a moderating effect on everyone else's behavior.
Also, if Iran does want a nuke, I think it's pretty naive to suppose they only want it for insurance against the US. Their number one goal seems to be displacing Saudi Arabia and Egypt as regional powers.
A lot of talk about foreign policy as relates to Iran and the ongoing nuclear talks.
Also, Ted Cruz announced his candidacy for President. So we can expect fewer stupid floor speeches in favor of stupid stump speeches.
To be fair, most of the countries on the breakout list don't have nukes only because they are already under someone else's nuclear umbrella. Why buy the cow, etc.
I don't want Iran to have a nuke, just because proliferation is bad. I certainly get why they want them / feel they need them. If I had to choose though, I'd much rather Iran having them than Pakistan.
Congress is so disappointingly, pathetically horrible. It seems like every time I think they can't get any worse, they manage to find a new low. The part that bugs me the most is that they aren't - and probably won't - have to pay for it. They get to act like assholes with no consequences, and at worst they are only buying more time for their buddies to get rich / live with low taxes while the country falls apart.
Although, if you've driven through Ohio on I-75, Boehner's district sure has been putting a lot of money into their highways. Some massive freeway spending in the podunk areas all the way between Dayton and Findlay. Which - to be fair - I wouldn't mind if it was getting spread around. Pork and earmarks make the government work, because at least the bribes normally get back to the citizenry one way or the other.
Also, Graham and McCain threatening to cut UN funding if they don't get to sit at the proverbial big kids table in these Iranian talks.
Wow.
The GOP is just so fucking mad things have gone all foreign policy and they don't have the white house.
At the end of the day they are probably looking at American and Isreali conservatives and saying "if the stars align it won't matter whether or not we are trying to build a bomb, only if we have built one"
Didn't they already write a dumbshit note saying they would never ever negotiate?
hmmmmmm
wonder why they aren't invited to the negotiations.
Obviously the birthers will come crawling out of the woodwork to argue that he isn't really American.
"Those silly Iranians can't tell Americans apart. At the negotiations they thought Kif here was the statesman and I was a jabbering mental patient."
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If Marco runs for president he can't run for Senate so Marco might save us from himself.
Until the Florida Republican Party conveniently changes the law for him.
Won't be able to do it unless they do it this month.
To be fair, it probably won't matter if they have, either - if anyone rolls in, it'd probably be the US. A strategic weapon only works if you can deliver it at sufficient range, which they can't, and it's been decades since the US had engaged in the types of movements that tactical weapons were conceived to defend against.
They could hit a base, or maybe a carrier group, but there will be no Normandy landing, no large bomber formations, only inefficient uses of the weapons. They could take the inefficient use to make a point, but that would probably only bring the hammer down harder. They'd probably have better luck tossing it on one of their own cities and hoping enough people blame the US to destabilize our network of allies.
any country that did would have maybe 24 hours to get out and go before the rest of the world turns them into a crater.
pretty much what I've been saying this entire stupid situation.
No nation, no matter how crazy someone thinks it is, will never use an atomic bomb in this day and age, because it would instantly galvanize the entire whole goddamn world against you.
The only nuclear threat that exists in the world is some crazy person blowing up a truckload of irradiated medical waste, because its alarming how blasé many places are about dealing with the stuff. (Wasn't a truckload of the stuff stolen last year in Mexico? and the dumbass thief broke open the containers, and the cops didn't even bother looking for him because he'd have gotten such a huge dose of radiation that he was most likely dead by the time they found the truck?)
But that's just a dirty bomb, that's not a city busting atomic.
Deterrent threats must be used to be deterrents.
Which is why we have to (conventionally) bomb them before the proof is a mushroom cloud. Duh!
Yea, a government that can expect to be in power tomorrow wouldn't do it because it would spell their downfall. Of course, when the US declares war on them they don't have much reason to not order the strike....and the US will totally get a huge portion of the blame for what was an utterly predictable outcome.
kill all of you?
yeah, I am real doubtful they will pull that shit off
but last minute bills do get shoved through!
i don't see Rubio running without guarantee he can keep his senate seat
Pakistan has nukes and barely exists as a state anymore.
how many nukes have they launched?
My real theory is that the party is going to tell him to sit down and shut up and let Jeb have his turn.
Or are the party elders calling a mulligan?
Does anyone care about or listen to the party elders anymore? The new kids seem to be running around doing whatever they want.