What, Already?
Indeed. The day after Labor Day is the traditional kickoff date for the election season in any given year. From now until November 2nd, you're going to see a whole lot more political commercials, ads, articles, whines, complaints, satires, buh-buh-buh-buh-boooos, and a return of the phrase "and I approve this message."
I've been a close observer of the political process since 1993, though I prefer to deal with them on a polling data and trends macro level, rather than a personal argumentative level where everyone goes on, at length, about how every single one of the tens of millions of people who vote against their preferred choice must be either A) duped, ignorant sheeple or
heartless unfeeling monsters who hate all good things and want you and your pet hamster DEAD. Political talk on the internet is
especially susceptible to this.
So, I'm starting this thread partially because I hope it'll be more informative than what would otherwise pop up as Election Day draws near, but
mostly so it'll wick unwelcome political chatter out of lighthearted fun threads, and let it burn on its own in a safe, designated corner of SE++.
Electoral Schedule
2010 is what we call a midterm year, right in the middle of two presidential election years. The US electoral calendar runs on a repeating four-year schedule:
- (2008) Presidential Year: President, 11 State Governors, 1/3 of the Senators, All House Seats
- (2009) Off-Year #1: Governors of Virginia and New Jersey
- (2010) Midterm Year: 36 State Governors, 1/3 of the Senators, All House Seats <== You Are Here
- (2011) Off-Year #2: Governors of Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi
- (2012) Presidential Year: President, 11 State Governors, 1/3 of the Senators, All House Seats
President: The presidential race isn't on this year, although the day after the midterm elections is usually the unofficial start of the primary season, where candidates start planning their moves and jockeying for position. I shan't say more of this because right now is far, far too early to speculate anything there.
Governors: 48 states elect their governors to four-year terms, with only New Hampshire and Vermont electing their governors every two years. Five US territories also elect governors on the four-year schedule, with American Samoa and Puerto Rico electing on presidential years, Guam and the Virgin Islands electing on midterm years, and the Northern Mariana Islands electing on the year in between.
States with Gubernatorial Elections in 2010: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah*, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming
*- Utah is one of those states that usually elects governors on presidential years, not midterms, but this year is a special election to fill the remaining term of an ambassadorial appointee.
Representatives: All 435 seats of the US House are up for election every presidential and midterm year, plus 6 non-voting members from the five territories and the District of Columbia. They're apportioned by population, so bigger states get more than smaller states, although every state is guaranteed at least one. Even though all 435 are up for election every two years, in practice, the way the district lines are drawn, about two-thirds of all representatives are in safe seats that are virtual locks for reelection, and every election season is fought over those in the middle where the outcome is in doubt.
Senators: There are 100 senators, but they serve six-year terms instead of two-year ones, and so every two years, either 33 or 34 of them are up for election, and the remaining two-thirds get to sit around and just watch. The senators are divided into three classes, Class 1 (their current term is 2006-2012), Class 2 (theirs is 2008-2014), and Class 3 (2004-2010). Class 3, the one with 34 senators, is up to bat this year.
States with Senatorial Elections in 2010: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware*, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York*, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia* and Wisconsin.
* - Due to temporary vacancies, New York is electing
two senators this year, one in a special election, and Delaware and West Virginia are each having special elections.
Previous Congressional Elections
Over the last 40 years, just because it's a nice round number and going too far back would make this too tall. Also, many years the numbers don't add up because of party switches, resignations, appointments, independents, and other miscellaneous events.
Year - House
Senate
1970:
255-
180 (
+12)
______54-43_ (+1)
1972:
242-
192 (
+12)
______56-42_ (+2)
1974:
291-
144 (
+49)
______61-38_ (+3)
1976:
292-
143 (
+1)
______61-38_ (+0)
1978:
277-
158 (
+15)
______58-41_ (+3)
1980:
242-
192 (
+34)
______53-46_ (+12)
1982:
269-
166 (
+27)
______54-46_ (+1)
1984:
253-
182 (
+16)
______53-47_ (+2)
1986:
258-
177 (
+5)
______55-45_ (+8)
1988:
260-
175 (
+2)
______55-45_ (+0)
1990:
267-
167 (
+7)
______56-44_ (+1)
1992:
258-
176 (
+9)
______56-44_ (+0)
1994:
230-
204 (
+54)
______52-48_ (+8)
1996:
228-
206 (
+8)
______55-45_ (+3)
1998:
223-
211 (
+5)
______55-45_ (+0)
2000:
221-
212 (
+1)
______50-50_ (+5)
2002:
229-
204 (
+8)
______51-49_ (+1)
2004:
232-
202 (
+3)
______55-45_ (+4)
2006:
233-
202 (
+31)
______51-49_ (+6)
2008:
257-
178 (
+21)
______59-41_ (+8)
2010: TBD
State of the 2010 Races
Note: TL,DR summary's at the bottom.
01- Alabama
Safe Rep: Senate, House-1/3/4/6
Likely Rep: Governor, House-5
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-2
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-7
02- Alaska
Safe Rep: Governor, House-AL
Likely Rep: Senate
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
03- Arizona
Safe Rep: Senate, House-2/6
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep: House-3
*****Toss-Up: House-5
Leaning Dem: House-1/8
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-4/7
04- Arkansas
Safe Rep: Senate, House-3
Likely Rep: House-2
Leaning Rep: House-1
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: Governor, House-4
Safe Dem:
05- California
Safe Rep: House-2/4/19/21/22/24/25/26/40/41/42/44/46/48/49/50/52
Likely Rep: House-3/45
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: Governor, House-11
Leaning Dem: Senate, House-18/47
Likely Dem: House-20
Safe Dem: House-1/5/6/7/8/9/10/12/13/14/15/16/17/23/27/28/29/30/31/32/33/34/35/36/37/38/39/43/51/53
06- Colorado
Safe Rep: House-5/6
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-4
*****Toss-Up: Senate
Leaning Dem: House-3/7
Likely Dem: Governor
Safe Dem: House-1/2
07- Connecticut
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: Senate, House-4/5
Likely Dem: Governor
Safe Dem: House-1/2/3
08- Delaware
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-AL
Likely Dem: Senate
Safe Dem:
09- Florida
Safe Rep: House-1/4/5/6/7/9/10/12/13/14/15/16/18/21
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-8/25
*****Toss-Up: Governor, Senate, House-2/22/24
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-3/11/17/19/20/23
10- Georgia
Safe Rep: Senate, House-1/3/6/7/9/10/11
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: Governor
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-8/12
Likely Dem: House-2
Safe Dem: House-4/5/13
11- Hawaii
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-1
Likely Dem: Governor
Safe Dem: SenateHouse-2
12- Idaho
Safe Rep: Governor, Senate, House-2
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-1
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
13- Illinois
Safe Rep: House-6/13/15/16/18/19
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: Governor, House-11
*****Toss-Up: Senate, House-10, House-14
Leaning Dem: House-8
Likely Dem: House-17
Safe Dem: House-1/2/3/4/5/7/9/12
14- Indiana
Safe Rep: House-3/4/5/6
Likely Rep: Senate
Leaning Rep: House-8
*****Toss-Up: House-9
Leaning Dem: House-2
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-1/7
15- Iowa
Safe Rep: Senate, House-4/5
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: House-3
Leaning Dem: House-1
Likely Dem: House-2
Safe Dem:
16- Kansas
Safe Rep: Governor, Senate, House-1/2/4
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-3
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
17- Kentucky
Safe Rep: House-1/2/4/5
Likely Rep: Senate
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-3/6
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
18- Louisiana
Safe Rep: House-1/4/5/6/7
Likely Rep: Senate
Leaning Rep: House-3
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: House-2
Safe Dem:
19- Maine
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: Governor
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-1/2
20- Maryland
Safe Rep: House-6
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: House-1
Leaning Dem: Governor
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: Senate, House-2/3/4/5/7/8
21- Massachusetts
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: Governor
Likely Dem: House-6/10
Safe Dem: House-1/2/3/4/5/7/8/9
22- Michigan
Safe Rep: House-2/3/4/6/8/10/11
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep: House-7
*****Toss-Up: House-1
Leaning Dem: House-9
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-5/12/13/14/15
23- Minnesota
Safe Rep: House-2/3
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-6
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: Governor, House-1
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-4/5/7/8
24- Mississippi
Safe Rep: House-3
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-1
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-2/4
25- Missouri
Safe Rep: House-2/6/7/8/9
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: Senate
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: House-3/4
Safe Dem: House-1/5
26- Montana
Safe Rep: House-AL
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
27- Nebraska
Safe Rep: Governor, House-1/3
Likely Rep: House-2
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
28- Nevada
Safe Rep: House-2
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep: House-3
*****Toss-Up: Senate
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-1
29- New Hampshire
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: Senate, House-2
*****Toss-Up: House-1
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: Governor
Safe Dem:
30- New Jersey
Safe Rep: House-2/4/5/7/11
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-3
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-1/6/8/9/10/12/13
31- New Mexico
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: Governor
*****Toss-Up: House-2
Leaning Dem: House-1
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-3
32- New York
Safe Rep: House-3/26
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-29
*****Toss-Up: House-24
Leaning Dem: House-25
Likely Dem: House-1/13/19/20/23
Safe Dem: Governor, Senate-1/2, House-2/4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11/12/14/15/16/17/18/21/22/27/28
33- North Carolina
Safe Rep: House-3/5/6/9/10
Likely Rep: Senate
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-8/11
Likely Dem: House-2
Safe Dem: House-1/4/7/12/13
34- North Dakota
Safe Rep: Senate
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-AL
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
35- Ohio
Safe Rep: House-2/3/4/5/7/8/14
Likely Rep: Governor, House-12
Leaning Rep: Senate, House-1/15/16
*****Toss-Up: House-13
Leaning Dem: House-18
Likely Dem: House-6
Safe Dem: House-9/10/11/17
36- Oklahoma
Safe Rep: Senate, House-1/3/4/5
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-2
37- Oregon
Safe Rep: House-2
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: Governor
Leaning Dem: House-5
Likely Dem: Senate
Safe Dem: House-1/3/4
38- Pennsylvania
Safe Rep: House-5/9/16/18/19
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep: Senate, House-6/15
*****Toss-Up: House-3/7/8/10/11/12
Leaning Dem: House-17
Likely Dem: House-4
Safe Dem: House-1/2/13/14
39- Rhode Island
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: Governor* (race is between Democrat and Independent)
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-1/2
40- South Carolina
Safe Rep: Senate, House-1/2/3/4
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-5
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-6
41- South Dakota
Safe Rep: Governor, Senate,
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-AL
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
42- Tennessee
Safe Rep: House-1/2/3/7
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep: House-6/8
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: House-4
Safe Dem: House-5/9
43- Texas
Safe Rep: House-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/10/11/12/13/14/19/21/22/24/26/31/32
Likely Rep: Governor
Leaning Rep: House-17
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem: House-23
Likely Dem: House-27
Safe Dem: House-9/15/16/18/20/25/27/28/29/30
44- Utah
Safe Rep: Governor, Senate, House-1/3
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: House-2
Safe Dem:
45- Vermont
Safe Rep:
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: Governor
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: Senate, House-AL
46- Virginia
Safe Rep: House-1/4/6/7/10
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-5
*****Toss-Up: House-2
Leaning Dem: House-11
Likely Dem: House-9
Safe Dem: House-3/8
47- Washington
Safe Rep: House-4/5
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: House-8
*****Toss-Up: Senate, House-3
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem: House-1/2/6/7/9
48- West Virginia
Safe Rep: House-2
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up: House-1
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem: Senate, House-3
Safe Dem:
49- Wisconsin
Safe Rep: House-1/5/6
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep: Governor, House-7
*****Toss-Up: Senate
Leaning Dem: House-8
Likely Dem: House-3
Safe Dem: House-2/4
50- Wyoming
Safe Rep: Governor, House-AL
Likely Rep:
Leaning Rep:
*****Toss-Up:
Leaning Dem:
Likely Dem:
Safe Dem:
Overview:
Governors -
Safe Rep: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Likely Rep: 5 Republicans, 6 Democrats
Leaning Rep: 1 Republican, 3 Democrats
*****Toss-Up: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Leaning Dem: 1 Republican, 2 Democrat
Likely Dem: 2 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Safe Dem: 1 Democrat
No Election This Year: 6 Republicans, 7 Democrats
Senators -
Safe Rep: 10 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Likely Rep: 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat
Leaning Rep: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat
*****Toss-Up: 2 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Leaning Dem: 2 Democrats
Likely Dem: 3 Democrats
Safe Dem: 5 Democrats
No Election This Year: 23 Republicans, 40 Democrats
Representatives -
Safe Rep: 163 Republicans, 1 Democrat
Likely Rep: 5 Republicans, 1 Democrat
Leaning Rep: 5 Republicans, 22 Democrats
*****Toss-Up: 1 Republican, 23 Democrats
Leaning Dem: 2 Republicans, 31 Democrats
Likely Dem: 1 Republican, 23 Democrats
Safe Dem: 157 Democrats
Reference LinksPolls:
Poll Aggregates:
So How Can We Help (candidate/party) Win?
Eh. Don't know, don't care. I'm a dispassionate political observer, not a strategist, analyst, advocate, or cheerleader. Work that out amongst yourselves, I guess. But be sane about it.
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Fuck I am such a bad american.
I can't wait for the real campaigning to start...
It varies by state.
Also it wouldn't fit in the OP because I was running up into the 35,000 character limit.
It makes me want to headbutt a brick wall. It's been a process of elimination, this year.
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Yay time to look into candidates and issues.
Meg Whitman can go suck an egg.
I'm so tired of her radio ads.
like, go fuck yourself, that has negative connotations. but suck an egg? why? what? I have been hearing it a lot recently.
I'm not a fan of the concept of a resurrected Governor, either. Time to look at the third part candidates. There's a list to be depended on. :?
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quit cramping my
style
Actually, this is the one time I would vote for a libertarian. If there's one this this screwed up state needs is less government. ...Though the Peace and Freedom party is looking good, with a promised $15 minimum wage, and free education and healthcare.
Seriously though I hate negative campaigning.
Right, because we have the money for that right now.
Seriously, though, I have to be super picky this year.
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Yeah, ugly this time. This is my first time voting in California, so I don't know what I'll do. I do have a personal rule that when in doubt, vote communist. It keeps things fresh, and probably my name in an FBI database somewhere.
A recession is exactly the time that (especially higher) education should be at least subsidised by the government.
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
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or at least, the result is
since the Republicans could in theory pick up one or both houses and then exactly fuck-all will get done over the course of the next two years, and then in 2012 people will be screaming for Obama's head over the fact that nothing was done in Congress
edit: plus, the Democrats apparently need a 65-seat majority in the house to do anything anyway, going down to 52*-48* would eliminate their ability to do anything
*does not take into account Joe "The Gigantic Gaping Asshole" Lieberman
I work at a school district. Things are insanely tight, right now. A fundraiser had to be held to hire just one more teacher so we wouldn't have to combine a classroom.
So, yeah, I'd love for the state to do at least a little better.
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I agree with the democrats on a lot of their publicly stated positions but I don't think I'm going to bother associating with their party like some kinda favorite sports team.
Not least because the democrats can't ever agree on anything.
well not so much state governments
the federal government can handle a pretty big deficit without it really effecting much of anything, especially the US
getting unemployed people without many job prospects into universities and technical colleges is a good thing, especially when otherwise they would just be sitting around collecting benefits and looking for jobs which they probably won't find for a long time
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Look, let's focus on the immediate threat.
We can focus on the fucked up educational system, right-to-work bullshit, and Civil War guilt later.
what is the deal with belonging to parties in the US anyway, you have to be a member to vote for who gets to represent the party right? Here nearly all actual party members like... work for the party a lot of the time, I think.
And yeah identifying your political position by "I am a [party]" is generally a good sign that you haven't thought about things enough.
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kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
Yes, though that is just internal to the party. So makes sense that they would want members to vote for them.
What is At-Will? Is that like some not-batshit-crazy version of Right-to-Work?
You can be fired for no reason, however you can also quit for no reason.
I think the U.K. doesn't operate by at-will
but I may have imagined Janson saying this!
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