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2010 Midterm Elections, or: Barnum Was Right
Gosling
Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered User regular
Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered User regular
Welcome to the latest edition of the midterm thread. Here's the link to 538.
Basically, America is sick and tired of everybody, as can be witnessed by what is set to be a third consecutive wave election, the parties splitting the 2006-10 elections 2-1. '06 and '08 to the Dems, '10 to the GOP. The voters, far as I can tell, are either despairing to the point where they've cut out of the process, or are so utterly pissed off that they can't even vote straight and are susceptible to being misled by anyone with sufficient charisma that will tell them what they want to hear whether or not these things are actually true, not unlike a snake oil salesman from the early 1900's.
They're pissed, they're desperate, they're pretty much willing to vote for anyone or anything that will actually fix shit to a degree they will notice.
However, the message at the polls is set to be garbled to the point where it comes out as "We would like to be led by the craziest people available, and the more they can screech and poop on everything as though they were a group of howler monkeys, the better." Which... yeah. It's a train that's jumped the tracks and is set to crash into a hospital full of orphan babies in about three weeks. Fun!
So how does one keep the train from crashing into the orphan baby hospital, or at least veer it into a non-baby-intensive section of same? If you can campaign, do that. If you can donate funds to a campaign, do that. Failing that, here's a start:
This is an I Voted sticker. They give these out when you go to the polls; this design is the one you get at my precinct and the one we used here in 2008 when we did this same thing.
When you cast your general-election vote, I want you to make this sticker- or another one you happen to like better- your new avatar until Election Day. For many of you, you can do this now through early voting. By the time the polls close, the only people that should NOT be sporting these stickers are those who are too young to vote and those who are not US citizens.
You will notice I am sporting a similar sticker myself- again, the one I used for myself in '08.
Basically, America is sick and tired of everybody, as can be witnessed by what is set to be a third consecutive wave election, the parties splitting the 2006-10 elections 2-1. '06 and '08 to the Dems, '10 to the GOP. The voters, far as I can tell, are either despairing to the point where they've cut out of the process, or are so utterly pissed off that they can't even vote straight and are susceptible to being misled by anyone with sufficient charisma that will tell them what they want to hear whether or not these things are actually true, not unlike a snake oil salesman from the early 1900's.
They're pissed, they're desperate, they're pretty much willing to vote for anyone or anything that will actually fix shit to a degree they will notice.
However, the message at the polls is set to be garbled to the point where it comes out as "We would like to be led by the craziest people available, and the more they can screech and poop on everything as though they were a group of howler monkeys, the better." Which... yeah. It's a train that's jumped the tracks and is set to crash into a hospital full of orphan babies in about three weeks. Fun!
So how does one keep the train from crashing into the orphan baby hospital, or at least veer it into a non-baby-intensive section of same? If you can campaign, do that. If you can donate funds to a campaign, do that. Failing that, here's a start:
This is an I Voted sticker. They give these out when you go to the polls; this design is the one you get at my precinct and the one we used here in 2008 when we did this same thing.
When you cast your general-election vote, I want you to make this sticker- or another one you happen to like better- your new avatar until Election Day. For many of you, you can do this now through early voting. By the time the polls close, the only people that should NOT be sporting these stickers are those who are too young to vote and those who are not US citizens.
You will notice I am sporting a similar sticker myself- again, the one I used for myself in '08.
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
Gosling on
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EDIT: By the way, my official prediction is that the Republicans blow this in the last two weeks. Dems retain enough control to keep Pelosi as Speaker, but not the votes to pass anything and maintain a several seat majority in the Senate (~53-47 with Sanders/Lieberman).
Not extremely likely, but not completly out of the realm of the possible. I give it 15% chance. Max.
If it does happen I give Liberman a 75% chance of switching to the GOP. Because he is just that kind of asshole.
Dems keeping the house? Which democrats and which house of representatives are we talking about? I realize any polls and statistics are poor estimates are this point because of the particulars of the election, but do you see any factors that would not be represented in the data?
He won't do that because it'd reduce his power in the Senate significantly.
Combine that with the fact that practically every high profile Republican candidate for national office this year is a walking October Surprise, and we will probably be seeing some fireworks in the last weeks of October. They're not all O'Donnell crazy, but it's a pretty impressive pack of whackjobs this cycle.
At the very least I don't think this will be the rout that everyone in the media is hoping for.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
If it comes down to a 50-50 split, I would significantly up the chances of Lieberman going over. Especially if the GOP guarantees his position for the next two years. Its not like he has a snowballs chance of a re-election.
One final fuck you to the dems is what he lives for.
While researching that answer, I found out that the Whigs kicked back off in '08.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
She studied SCOTUS law under Palin it seems
"What Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?"
"Oh, all of them."
Loss of the Senate is pretty unlikely, loss of the House is fairly likely. Honestly, a split congress is a decent outcome, but would be much, much better if the Democratic caucus wasn't so ideologically spread out such that we could give the Republicans a taste of their own obstructionist medicine.
I guess once they're too banged up to die for their country, they don't really count anymore.
Seriously, fuck Dick Burr.
The thing is, I guarantee you no one in his state has any idea that he did that.
Oh, absolutely. They're too busy worrying about Obama's secret muslim plot to give all our jobs to the illegals.
I listen to conservative talk radio. I happen to think the morning show is the best morning show on (if I'm not going to get music, I might as well get news).
People calling in tend to make me want to ram my truck into oncoming traffic because of how stupid they are.
Yeah, that seems to be the general consensus. The O'Donnell debacle cost the Republicans a seat they were all but guaranteed, and that single loss basically erases their chances of taking the Senate.
One interesting (read: fucking terrifying) thing I heard is someone suggesting that if the Dems somehow manage a miracle and retain a very slim majority of the House, the Republicans might nominate one of the Blue Dogs for Speaker of the House. And with their lock-step vote and the couple of fellow Blue Dogs that are sure to vote with them, they have a really good chance of winning. Can someone who knows more about House rules tell me how likely, or even possible, this is? It's been giving me nightmares.
The Pubs did this in the MT State Legislature a few years back.
Tennessee sticks in my mind. Probably wrong, though. But yeah, such shenanigans do happen.
Let me put that fear to rest: That will never ever happen. Any democrat that went along with such a coup would with 100% certainty be stripped of seniority within the caucus. That's Superliebermann levels of dickery.
I thought it was Tennessee too, but I'm certain it was a 50-49 vote and the TN Senate doesn't have that many members.
The republicans basically staged a coo and voted in Dem who switched parties
to get the house back to Dems they bribed the asshole with leadership positions to switch back
Yeah, unfortunately close majorities or supermajorities are just ripe for abuse by opportunistic assholes like Lieberman.
I'd say half of that is self-delusion and the other half is the conventional wisdom being completely wrong, as always. David Broder may gush about Republicans having control, but nobody else does. God I fucking hate Broder.
The polls aren't exactly optimistic either. Unless Nate is going to be really really wrong we have roughly an 82% chance of keeping at least 50 seats in the senate and 28% chance of keeping 218 in the house.
Edit: In the campaign office and state wide we have started using a predictive dialing automated system. It sucks that I don't know who the hell I'm talking to, their age, party identity, or address, but I do end up talking to a lot more people. Instead of talking to ~1 person out of every 10 dials (which takes about 10 minutes) I am talking to maybe 5+ people in a 10 minute span.
Edit2: I heard somewhere that you are not allowed to auto dial cell phones. Does anyone happen to know if this is true? I've googled around a bit but haven't found much.
Edit3: I found this article on the autodialers but it only pertains to debt collectors so I'm not sure if the FCC regulation also applies to non-solicitations.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Kind of a good metaphor for Republicans this cycle really.
Don't know if that is still the case.
You seriously don't think if the 'pubs nominated someone like one of the C-Street guys, that they wouldn't get atleast a couple of the Blue Dogs to vote for him? I don't even think it's a question as to whether or not they'd be able to whip a 100% vote out of their fellow 'pubs.
I do think there's going to be greater margin for error in the House races because the smaller size and geographic footprint of the electorate means that local politics are more important than they are in state-wide or national races, and any polling done frequently uses a smaller sample size than a statewide poll; still, I'd rate Dem chances of retaining the House as Not Very Good At All.