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Totally not a phalla thread

redxredx I(x)=2(x)+1whole numbersRegistered User regular
edited February 2007 in Debate and/or Discourse
So... I went out to the book store to pick up something to read. After striking out on about 5 books I went there to get, I ended up getting Cryptonomicon.

I kinda read it a bit, and well... I had a neat idea. We've played a fair number of Phalla games, and they are probably still laying about. The forum search feature should be working.

It wouldn't take too much to do a bit of poking around, and maybe find some rather neat information about how folks play phalla. By looking at the old threads, and with a bit of effort, we should be able to piece together some indicators about different aspects based on folks posting behavior. Comparing things like posts per day(average and during games), posts per day in the phalla thread, and special status, we might be able to get some neat results.

Now... I'm lazy. I don't really feel like going about this all on my own, and assistance from mods in maybe chatlogging the old games so the don't get pruned, or even the very unlike chance that an admin with slightly more direct access to the database wanted to give a hand, that would be keen too.

I know we got a fair number of math geeks, and here is an almost real world way to apply some of that(well... maybe not actual math, but statistics anyway). And there are some folks with computer skills, who might be able to get a bit more out of the forum than you would get out of the typical search feature(without doing anything that would fuck the forum up). Like, automate stuff a wee bit. (clearly, getting permission to do this would be required, and with shit that has gone down recently I could guess it might be slow in coming. Even though it would not be anything that a typical user couldn't do manually.)

I wonder if folks might be interested. I think it could be kinda neat. It would be a pretty small population size, and probably insignificant, but I figured I'd throw the idea out there.

They moistly come out at night, moistly.
redx on

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    gundam470gundam470 Drunk Gorilla CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    The stats on me would be:

    As a villager - posts in the thread a lot

    As a bad guy - not so much

    gundam470 on
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    SmasherSmasher Starting to get dizzy Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I've thought about doing this myself, but it would take a great deal of time and effort to do it thoroughly enough that the results would actually be useful. Plus if we did that it would have a metagame effect, as people do something other than what's expected, or what IS expected to be tricky, or... etc.

    But from a pure curiosity standpoint, I agree it would be interesting.

    Smasher on
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    Andrew_JayAndrew_Jay Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    redx wrote: »
    It wouldn't take too much to do a bit of poking around, and maybe find some rather neat information about how folks play phalla. By looking at the old threads, and with a bit of effort, we should be able to piece together some indicators about different aspects based on folks posting behavior. Comparing things like posts per day(average and during games), posts per day in the phalla thread, and special status, we might be able to get some neat results.
    ITT: If Robert McNamara was involved in our Phalla games ;-)

    Andrew_Jay on
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    werehippywerehippy Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    While I think this is a cool idea, I think it's an exercise in futility. I think the participants of each game could go through and just off the top of their heads give you info that's effectively as good as anything you could pull out through analysis, and most damning of all, the best players are immune to this kind of meta-gaming.

    Being good at playing is tied inextricably to being extremely aware of the public facade you're projecting, and manipulating it to achieve a desired effect. All you'd do if you look at most players is start an endless chain of "Do they know I know they know I know?" and when you add "convincing liar" as another good skill to have it becomes an exercise in futility.

    Don't let me rain on your parade, I'd love to see the results and I'd be willing to chip in a bit, but I think it's at best an intellectual exercise with no practical application.

    werehippy on
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    ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I'd actually like to see how my behaviors differ between villager and monster.

    I like to think they're pretty damn close to the same, but I have no illusions that the fact that I'm a monster doesn't affect me subconsciously.

    Thanatos on
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    ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited February 2007
    Elki on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I put together a spreadsheet. Can somebody host it?

    Interesting tidbits:
    (note: the average was divided by 5. even with the empty cells, i wasn't going to go through and divide each one by the correct number.)
    1. Only 9 people posted in all 5 of those threads. (I was one :D)
    2. The highest average in those 5 threads was Shinto, with 53.8. tux had 51.8, Aroduc and werehippy had averages of 49.
    3. The records for a single thread:
      • bsjezz - 145 (V)
      • Aroduc - 133 (V)
      • Shinto - 132 (VIII)
      • Irond Will - 128 (V)
      • werehippy - 120 (VI)
      • tuxkamen - 115 (V)
      • Elendil - 106 (V)
      • Tarranon - 91 (V)
      • Smasher - 91 (V)
    4. Running a game
      • Joseph/ArrBeeBee/Kusu - 121 (VI, 57/17/47)
      • ElJeffe - 76 (V)
      • Shinto - 51 (VIIa/b 27/24)
      • Dynagrip - 33 (VIII)
    5. Lowest averages for 2+ games
      • docse - 6 (12 posts/2 games)
      • Grid System - 6.5 (13 posts/2 games)
      • saggio - 9.5 (19 posts/2 games)
      • Giganticus - 10 (20 posts/2 games)
    Obviously Dynagrip's number and all the numbers for VIII aren't fair, because it wasn't even a quarter of the way through, but still some interesting numbers. And of course, this doesn't take into account dying early, etc. And I haven't looked at monster/special information yet.

    thorgot on
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    Casual EddyCasual Eddy The Astral PlaneRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I don't post alot and then get killed or ruin it for my team.

    Woot.

    Casual Eddy on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I figured out how to divide by the number of games. bsjezz has the highest average, with 145 (145 in 1 game).

    thorgot on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    Also cool:
    • 99 people have posted a total of 5860 times in these 5 Phalla threads.
    • Posts per game were decreasing (2168, 1417, 320/299) until Dyna's game, which had 1656 just a few days in. (Probably due to the size of the games)
    • People who have posted in these 5 Phalla threads have posted in an average of 2.23 of these 5 Phalla threads.
    • Average number of posts per person per Phalla thread: 25.68.
    • Average total number of posts per person in all of the Phalla threads: 59.19

    So the smaller game, the fewer posts per person. But the average person is going to post 26 times in a 300 to 2200 post thread, which makes it hard to get a read on them.

    thorgot on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    Dyna never released all the info on his game, but for the other four:
    • Game. Average Posts per Person / Average Posts per Monster
    • V. 43.36 / 78.83
    • VI. 27.25/28.67
    • VIIa. 11.85/26
    • VIIb. 9.06/12
    Wow. In some games it's a huge difference, but in others it's just a few posts. Obviously, monsters have a better life expectancy, so that could explain the small difference in VI and VIIb. But wow at game V.

    thorgot on
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    Aroused BullAroused Bull Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    Elkamil wrote: »
    I've moved what we had to the archives.
    That's a good idea. I wish we could have caught Rishiri and that one where I kicked all sorts of arse.

    Aroused Bull on
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    SmasherSmasher Starting to get dizzy Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I'm guessing the average posts per person doesn't include the monsters?

    What would probably be most telling would be the average ratio of posts/days alive per person, but that would take a lot of work.

    Smasher on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    No, it does include the monsters. After all, how are you supposed to subtract the posts of the monsters during the game, while you wouldn't know who they are?

    thorgot on
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    SmasherSmasher Starting to get dizzy Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    We wouldn't try to do the calculation on a running game, since as (I think) you're indicating we wouldn't know who the monsters are. But we do know all that for past games, so we can calculate the monster and non-monster posts seperately for those games, and then compare the respective averages to postcounts in the current game.

    How likely that is to accurately predict monsters is another issue, but you can say that for any statistic we come up with.

    Smasher on
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    NerissaNerissa Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    Smasher wrote: »
    What would probably be most telling would be the average ratio of posts/days alive per person, but that would take a lot of work.
    Yeah, the total posts in the thread isn't very good at comparing someone who is active the first day or two, but then dies with someone who only posts a couple of times but lives much longer.

    I know that as of night two in the Hunter game I was high poster by far, but then the monsters got me. I'll bet that by the end of the game several people had caught up to my post count in the thread.

    Also, I know my spreadsheet for each game always includes a notes column, because there are a lot of non-quantifiable aspects to how someone usually acts that make them suspicious or not.

    Nerissa on
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    werehippywerehippy Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    thorgot wrote: »
    [*]The highest average in those 5 threads was Shinto, with 53.8. tux had 51.8, Aroduc and werehippy had averages of 49.

    Just a note, I didn't "really" participate in all 5 games. In the first one (where I have 2 posts) I was reading the game to get a feel for how it works, and I asked two questions during the general discussion.

    So, my real average over 4 games is 60.75 [((49 x 2)-2)/4].

    I win Phalla! :)

    werehippy on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    Well, if you don't count the two he ran, Shinto's average is more like 70.

    thorgot on
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    CantideCantide Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I'm very happy to see Phalla V in the archives. Now the MetsitluC river will live on forever.

    Cantide on
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    RichyRichy Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I'm disappointed that my game (Phalla II) didn't survive.

    Richy on
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    PsychoLarry1PsychoLarry1 Registered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I'd be interested to see the post/day ratio for specials in these games. I guess it would be hard to quantify in the commie game, and all of the special rules in the other games, but you could probably do it for the seer, guardian, and vigilantes anyway.

    PsychoLarry1 on
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    thorgotthorgot there is special providence in the fall of a sparrowRegistered User regular
    edited February 2007
    I'll calculate posts/thread for specials when I get back from lunch. Posts/day would be too much of a pain.

    thorgot on
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