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Those of you who had [Super Flu] apocalypse, please step forward and collect your bets.

SniperGuySniperGuy SniperGuyGamingRegistered User regular
edited November 2011 in Debate and/or Discourse
http://www.doctortipster.com/6952-dutch-researcher-created-a-super-influenza-virus-with-the-potential-to-kill-millions.html
A Dutch researcher has created a virus with the potential to kill half of the planet’s population. Now, researchers and experts in bioterrorism debate whether it is a good idea to publish the virus creation ”recipe”. However, several voices argue that such research should have not happened in the first place.

The virus is a strain of avian influenza H5N1 genetically modified to be extremely contagious. It was created by researcher Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam, Netherlands. The work was first presented at a conference dedicated to influenza, that took place in September in Malta.

...
“I can not think of a pathogenic organism to be more dangerous than this one”, commented Paul Keim, a specialist in microbial genetics who worked for many years with the anthrax bacillus. “I think the anthrax is not at all scary, when compared with this virus” , he added.

So, should we be allowing this sort of research? Is there really a cause to create these sorts of things, and how much worry is there about anything getting loose?

SniperGuy on
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Posts

  • Tiger BurningTiger Burning Dig if you will, the pictureRegistered User, SolidSaints Tube regular
    I always knew it would be the Dutch. You could just tell.

    Ain't no particular sign I'm more compatible with
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Why would anyone ever do this research? What do we have to gain?

    Lh96QHG.png
  • Pi-r8Pi-r8 Registered User regular
    I guess it's good to have it be created in a controlled laboratory so we can prepare for it and defend against it?

  • MetroidZoidMetroidZoid Registered User regular
    Why do you even work towards something like this? Why?

    9UsHUfk.jpgSteam
    3DS FC: 4699-5714-8940 Playing Pokemon, add me! Ho, SATAN!
  • HavelockHavelock Registered User regular
    They really should get rid of that 12 Monkeys DVD at the Erasmus Medical Center.

  • dbrock270dbrock270 Registered User regular
    edited November 2011
  • AtomikaAtomika Live fast and get fucked or whatever Registered User regular
    I may be remembering wrongly with the specifics, but as working as a medical person during the recent swine flu panic, I had to keep reminding patients that Regular flu was deadly enough for no special extra concern to be placed on any variant strain.


    Flu be deadly, y'all. Regular influenza viruses kill about 25,000 people in the US every year. About 8 times that of Swine flu.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    edited November 2011
    Pi-r8 wrote:
    I guess it's good to have it be created in a controlled laboratory so we can prepare for it and defend against it?

    But, if it hadn't been created in a lab we wouldn't need to defend against it.

    If a highly contagious strain develops in the wild it would need a different drug to combat it anyway. MAYBE this would help us develop one faster, which was probably the reasoning. Unless the Dutch are trying to become Bond villans. I mean again.

    AManFromEarth on
    Lh96QHG.png
  • zerg rushzerg rush Registered User regular
    edited November 2011
    Why would anyone ever do this research? What do we have to gain?

    Well, 1st reason is that it demonstrates how wrong we were regarding H5N1. Originally, it was thought that human to human transmission would be almost impossible, but these people proved that it is possible. Now that we know it can be a real problem, we can actually start to work on countermeasures.

    2nd, creating ways to counteract it can only occur once we've done this prior groundwork.

    3rd, the lab this was created as is a BSL-3 facility. This particular strain won't be killing anyone.

    4th is that apparently it's not too hard. Here's a less doom-y article. They were originally expecting to need to use synthetic biology or gene sequencing or something. Turns out they only needed to do standard selective breeding instead. IE, while this strain happened to be created in a high tech lab, any lab in Iran or North Korea could have pulled it off... or hell just natural selection.

    Hence it's good that we figure this out now, because the only other way we'd have discovered it is when half our population ends up dead.

    Edit:
    [snip]Fouchier initially tried to make the virus more transmissible by making specific changes to its genome, using a process called reverse genetics; when that failed, he passed the virus from one ferret to another multiple times, a low-tech and time-honored method of making a pathogen adapt to a new host.

    After 10 generations, the virus had become "airborne": Healthy ferrets became infected simply by being housed in a cage next to a sick one.[snip]

    Not to belittle his work, but the article makes it sound like any sonofabitch with access to a pet shop and the original (widely available) strain could have ended up killing more people than the black death. At least now we can start working on ways to prevent it.

    zerg rush on
  • see317see317 Registered User regular
    Is this the part where he makes a demand for a huge amount of money and the Brits send James Bond in to kick his ass and blow stuff up?
    Cause this is really sounding like something out of a Bond flick.

  • Skoal CatSkoal Cat Registered User regular
    Maybe its a ARG for the next in the franchise?

  • Muse Among MenMuse Among Men Suburban Bunny Princess? Its time for a new shtick Registered User regular
    I am sick with the common cold right now I don't need this!

  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    Yeah, it won't be getting out of that lab. Relax people, this is alarmist bullshit.

  • wanderingwandering Russia state-affiliated media Registered User regular
    zerg rush wrote:
    3rd, the lab this was created as is a BSL-3 facility. This particular strain won't be killing anyone.
    If you don't use BSL-4 for viruses that can kill half the planet what do you use level 4 for

  • zerg rushzerg rush Registered User regular
    edited November 2011
    Apparently Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, which causes you to bleed to death from every orifice including the new ones it creates holyshit.


    Although in their defense, the disease started out as relatively non-dangerous. Not their fault they did such a good job it got leveled up to 'existential threat'.

    zerg rush on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    Yeah, it won't be getting out of that lab. Relax people, this is alarmist bullshit.

    Yeah that's what they said about killer bees man!

    Haha but seriously I guess level 4 is for the really dangerous stuff like Justin bieber

    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    zerg rush wrote:
    Why would anyone ever do this research? What do we have to gain?

    Well, 1st reason is that it demonstrates how wrong we were regarding H5N1. Originally, it was thought that human to human transmission would be almost impossible, but these people proved that it is possible. Now that we know it can be a real problem, we can actually start to work on countermeasures.

    2nd, creating ways to counteract it can only occur once we've done this prior groundwork.

    3rd, the lab this was created as is a BSL-3 facility. This particular strain won't be killing anyone.

    4th is that apparently it's not too hard. Here's a less doom-y article. They were originally expecting to need to use synthetic biology or gene sequencing or something. Turns out they only needed to do standard selective breeding instead. IE, while this strain happened to be created in a high tech lab, any lab in Iran or North Korea could have pulled it off... or hell just natural selection.

    Hence it's good that we figure this out now, because the only other way we'd have discovered it is when half our population ends up dead.

    Edit:
    [snip]Fouchier initially tried to make the virus more transmissible by making specific changes to its genome, using a process called reverse genetics; when that failed, he passed the virus from one ferret to another multiple times, a low-tech and time-honored method of making a pathogen adapt to a new host.

    After 10 generations, the virus had become "airborne": Healthy ferrets became infected simply by being housed in a cage next to a sick one.[snip]

    Not to belittle his work, but the article makes it sound like any sonofabitch with access to a pet shop and the original (widely available) strain could have ended up killing more people than the black death. At least now we can start working on ways to prevent it.

    Ah, that is a much better article.

    Thanks for the clarification.

    Lh96QHG.png
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  • Delta AssaultDelta Assault Registered User regular
    edited November 2011
    Yeah, it won't be getting out of that lab. Relax people, this is alarmist bullshit.

    The_Stand_cover.jpg

    M-O-O-N, that spells Captain Trips, laws yes!

    Well, I'm heading to Boulder, Colorado.

    Delta Assault on
  • chidonachidona Registered User regular
    Yeah, it won't be getting out of that lab. Relax people, this is alarmist bullshit.

    The_Stand_cover.jpg

    M-O-O-N, that spells Captain Trips, laws yes!

    Well, I'm heading to Boulder, Colorado.

    I'm literally reading that book at the moment.

    My heart froze when I saw the thread title D=

  • DaedalusDaedalus Registered User regular
    The scary part is that according to the article, it's just a combination of five different mutations to H5N1, and each of these five exists normally in nature; it's just that in nature we haven't seen all five at once before in the same strain.

    Man, forget about someone we don't like brewing this shit up in a lab; it seems like this could just happen by itself at some point in the future.

  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited November 2011
    I may be remembering wrongly with the specifics, but as working as a medical person during the recent swine flu panic, I had to keep reminding patients that Regular flu was deadly enough for no special extra concern to be placed on any variant strain.


    Flu be deadly, y'all. Regular influenza viruses kill about 25,000 people in the US every year. About 8 times that of Swine flu.

    Yeah. Being especially contagious doesn't really make it a "pandemic" so much as it's just the flu. At best it'll kill off the elderly, the young, and the sick. Probably won't do much to you or I, I'd think.

    Bowen on
  • ChanusChanus Harbinger of the Spicy Rooster Apocalypse The Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered User, Moderator mod
    edited November 2011
    bowen wrote:
    I may be remembering wrongly with the specifics, but as working as a medical person during the recent swine flu panic, I had to keep reminding patients that Regular flu was deadly enough for no special extra concern to be placed on any variant strain.


    Flu be deadly, y'all. Regular influenza viruses kill about 25,000 people in the US every year. About 8 times that of Swine flu.

    Yeah. Being especially contagious doesn't really make it a "pandemic" so much as it's just the flu. At best it'll kill off the elderly, the young, and the sick. Probably won't do much to you or I, I'd think.

    If I recall, avian flu is more deadly than the "regular" flu, but it is not easily spread. So, while the regular flu kills more people, it's not actually a more dangerous virus, it's just more common.

    And swine flu is not as dangerous, but it is highly contagious.

    So, that's why all the hubbub about them.

    E: Like, "more dangerous" with respect to any given individual dealing with it.

    Chanus on
    Allegedly a voice of reason.
  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    Yeah probably why it'd pick off the fringes of age and health first. A normal person who rests will probably come out just fine. Someone who decides to go to work because they can't afford to take 1-2 weeks off will probably end up in the hospital and infect everyone else.

  • ChanusChanus Harbinger of the Spicy Rooster Apocalypse The Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered User, Moderator mod
    More to the point, making a highly-contagious version of avian flu pretty much is how you start a real global pandemic, and not just a media-hyped one.

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    I wonder what kind of ramifications it would have now that the world is back to like... 3 billion people.

  • ChanusChanus Harbinger of the Spicy Rooster Apocalypse The Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered User, Moderator mod
    No more global warming!

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    I'd say probably the places with poor sanitation and medical care would be destroyed. I can see huge damage to Africa, and Asia and I'm wondering if suddenly outsourced labor becomes more expensive than USA labor at that point.

    Sort of like a reset on globalization.

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  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    Well, better than China, but not much.

  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    bowen wrote:
    I'd say probably the places with poor sanitation and medical care would be destroyed. I can see huge damage to Africa, and Asia and I'm wondering if suddenly outsourced labor becomes more expensive than USA labor at that point.

    Sort of like a reset on globalization.


    Sooooooo... what you're saying is, every cloud has a silver lining?

  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    A racists wet dream?

  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    Yes!

    Now we have the Doomsday Weapon!

    Time to start the Dr. Evil conference call.

    Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    bowen wrote:
    A racists wet dream?

    Well, every white racists wet dream.

  • azith28azith28 Registered User regular
    I can understand wanting to create a virus strain that is spreadable...Nanotechnology will eventually likely rely on the ability to survive and pass on if we ever want technology that would keep spreading a vaccine or cure or genetic 'fix'...but why make one so virulant and deadly I have no idea.

    I mean the only obvious answer beyond the suggestion that the study was funded by the germans for future conquest of the world, is that europe apparently has too much money and they had to spend it on something.

    Stercus, Stercus, Stercus, Morituri Sum
  • BowenBowen Sup? Registered User regular
    azith28 wrote:
    I can understand wanting to create a virus strain that is spreadable...Nanotechnology will eventually likely rely on the ability to survive and pass on if we ever want technology that would keep spreading a vaccine or cure or genetic 'fix'...but why make one so virulant and deadly I have no idea.

    I mean the only obvious answer beyond the suggestion that the study was funded by the germans for future conquest of the world, is that europe apparently has too much money and they had to spend it on something.

    They're hiding it super well.

  • Tiger BurningTiger Burning Dig if you will, the pictureRegistered User, SolidSaints Tube regular
    edited November 2011
    azith28 wrote:
    I can understand wanting to create a virus strain that is spreadable...Nanotechnology will eventually likely rely on the ability to survive and pass on if we ever want technology that would keep spreading a vaccine or cure or genetic 'fix'...but why make one so virulant and deadly I have no idea.

    I mean the only obvious answer beyond the suggestion that the study was funded by the germans for future conquest of the world, is that europe apparently has too much money and they had to spend it on something.

    There are plenty of reasons to study it. Understanding the genetic sources of transmissibility and better understanding how it might arise would be terribly good things to know more about. Whether they justify the risks.. ? The issue is the publication. Presumably he wants to publish the specific mutations that led to the increase in transmissibility, but that would make it pretty trivial for some bad actor with a few thousand dollars of equipment and an undergraduate degree to replicate synthetically. Bad times.

    Tiger Burning on
    Ain't no particular sign I'm more compatible with
  • KarozKaroz Registered User regular
    Why do you even work towards something like this? Why?

    To take the words of Glados: We do what we must, because we can.

  • FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD interior crocodile alligator ⇔ ǝɹʇɐǝɥʇ ǝᴉʌoɯ ʇǝloɹʌǝɥɔ ɐ ǝʌᴉɹp ᴉRegistered User regular
    Wait, they've engineered a virus that could potentially kill all the children and elderly people on the planet?

    Somewhere, Thanatos just had an orgasm and he has no idea why.

    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.

    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
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