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[Politic On] American Presidential Candidates '08!
Spawnbroker
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
The Intro
I enjoy discussing American politics a lot, and I noticed there wasn't a thread for the 2008 presidential election yet. Since this is getting a lot of media coverage, I figured I would post my thoughts and see if others would discuss their views. I'd like to hear what others have to say about the candidates before I make a final decision (though I have a current favorite, who doesn't?), and that's where you guys come in!
The Candidates
From wikipedia, the current candidates for the parties are:
The Democrats:
Candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Democratic Party:
-Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
-Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
-Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina
-Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska
-Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
-Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
Candidates who have formed exploratory committees, but not yet filed with the FEC:
-Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York
-Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Individuals who have expressed serious interest:
-Retired General Wesley Clark of Arkansas
-Reverend Al Sharpton of New York
Individuals frequently mentioned as candidates:
-Former Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee
My favorites from the Democrats right now are Barack Obama and Wesley Clark, who I have always liked. I think Hillary will most likely get the nomination, but will not win the presidency unless the Republicans nominate someone completely retarded (wait, haven't they done that already?)
On to the other parties!
The Republicans:
Candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Republican Party:
-Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
-John H. Cox of Illinois
-Representative Duncan Hunter of California
-Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
-Michael Charles Smith of Oregon
Candidates who have formed exploratory committees, but not yet filed with the FEC:
-Former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia
-Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
-Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York
-Senator John McCain of Arizona
-Representative Ron Paul of Texas
-Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado
-Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
Individuals who have expressed serious interest:
-Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia
-Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska
-Radio talk show host Michael Savage of California
The only ones I can really say I've heard much about are Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. I don't know what I think about McCain, he seems to contradict himself with every speech he gives. That annoys me. As for Giuliani, he may win the nomination just by the September 11th sympathy factor; I think he has way too many skeletons in his closet to be a serious contender for the presidency, though. As for Mitt Romney...wait, who is that again? Newt Gingrich might do well, but I don't know much about what he is planning.
Third parties!!!
Constitution Party:
Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party (United States):
-James Gilchrist of California
-Dale Thompson of Kentucky
All I have to say to this is...hahaha, lol
Green Party:
Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party:
-Kat Swift of Texas
Haven't heard much here either. Surprising, considering the whole Global Warming debacle going on. I'd think their PR people would be all over that shit.
Libertarian Party:
Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Libertarian Party:
-Steve Kubby of California
-George Phillies of Massachusetts
-Christine Smith of Colorado
Announced candidates:
-Doug Stanhope of Arizona
Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:
-Gene Chapman of Texas
-Barry Hess of Arizona
-Dave Hollist of California
-Robert Milnes of New Jersey
Not much to say here. Don't know much about the Libertarian Party, except that one of their major platforms was complete isolationism last time I checked. Yeah fuck that, that shit almost lost us WW2.
The Conclusion
I have a heavy Democrat bias, considering how much of a shitstorm this country is in because of good ol' Georgie. I can't believe I voted for that fucker. Anyways, past mistakes aside, I am liking Barack Obama a lot. I think he's got an interesting take on things, definitely refreshing to see a new face in the Democratic party. As for Hillary, well...she's been siding with Jack Thompson on video-game issues for so long that I really stopped listening to what she had to say.
Anyways, discuss! I'd like to hear what you guys have to say. Even if you don't live in America, feel free to take part in the discussion. Just..try not to derail the thread with too many 'OMG Bush sucks!!!' comments.
I enjoy discussing American politics a lot, and I noticed there wasn't a thread for the 2008 presidential election yet. Since this is getting a lot of media coverage, I figured I would post my thoughts and see if others would discuss their views. I'd like to hear what others have to say about the candidates before I make a final decision (though I have a current favorite, who doesn't?), and that's where you guys come in!
The Candidates
From wikipedia, the current candidates for the parties are:
The Democrats:
Candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Democratic Party:
-Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
-Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
-Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina
-Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska
-Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
-Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
Candidates who have formed exploratory committees, but not yet filed with the FEC:
-Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York
-Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Individuals who have expressed serious interest:
-Retired General Wesley Clark of Arkansas
-Reverend Al Sharpton of New York
Individuals frequently mentioned as candidates:
-Former Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee
My favorites from the Democrats right now are Barack Obama and Wesley Clark, who I have always liked. I think Hillary will most likely get the nomination, but will not win the presidency unless the Republicans nominate someone completely retarded (wait, haven't they done that already?)
On to the other parties!
The Republicans:
Candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Republican Party:
-Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
-John H. Cox of Illinois
-Representative Duncan Hunter of California
-Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
-Michael Charles Smith of Oregon
Candidates who have formed exploratory committees, but not yet filed with the FEC:
-Former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia
-Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
-Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York
-Senator John McCain of Arizona
-Representative Ron Paul of Texas
-Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado
-Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
Individuals who have expressed serious interest:
-Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia
-Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska
-Radio talk show host Michael Savage of California
The only ones I can really say I've heard much about are Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. I don't know what I think about McCain, he seems to contradict himself with every speech he gives. That annoys me. As for Giuliani, he may win the nomination just by the September 11th sympathy factor; I think he has way too many skeletons in his closet to be a serious contender for the presidency, though. As for Mitt Romney...wait, who is that again? Newt Gingrich might do well, but I don't know much about what he is planning.
Third parties!!!
Constitution Party:
Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party (United States):
-James Gilchrist of California
-Dale Thompson of Kentucky
All I have to say to this is...hahaha, lol
Green Party:
Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party:
-Kat Swift of Texas
Haven't heard much here either. Surprising, considering the whole Global Warming debacle going on. I'd think their PR people would be all over that shit.
Libertarian Party:
Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Libertarian Party:
-Steve Kubby of California
-George Phillies of Massachusetts
-Christine Smith of Colorado
Announced candidates:
-Doug Stanhope of Arizona
Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:
-Gene Chapman of Texas
-Barry Hess of Arizona
-Dave Hollist of California
-Robert Milnes of New Jersey
Not much to say here. Don't know much about the Libertarian Party, except that one of their major platforms was complete isolationism last time I checked. Yeah fuck that, that shit almost lost us WW2.
The Conclusion
I have a heavy Democrat bias, considering how much of a shitstorm this country is in because of good ol' Georgie. I can't believe I voted for that fucker. Anyways, past mistakes aside, I am liking Barack Obama a lot. I think he's got an interesting take on things, definitely refreshing to see a new face in the Democratic party. As for Hillary, well...she's been siding with Jack Thompson on video-game issues for so long that I really stopped listening to what she had to say.
Anyways, discuss! I'd like to hear what you guys have to say. Even if you don't live in America, feel free to take part in the discussion. Just..try not to derail the thread with too many 'OMG Bush sucks!!!' comments.
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And possibly Edwards, but that's more related to his projected image than anything.
DEMS:
Biden- Maybe as a dark horse let-Clinton/Obama-KO-each-other guy, but past that, nah.
Dodd- Feh.
Edwards- The stink of Kerry will keep him from serious enough consideration.
Gravel- Don't be silly.
Kucinich- Don't be sillier.
Obama- His task is simple: Get Clinton out of the way while avoiding being torpedoed himself. If he can do that, the White House is his.
Clinton- She has the edge in the primary, as everyone knows her and people are split 50/50 on her. The 50 that hate her can't agree on the person that should take her out, so the 50 that like her may win out if Clinton isn't taken out by something on down the road. Then she has to worry about the general- there are plenty of Republicans who couldn't beat a rug let alone beat a Democratic candidate in this environment, but there are some that can beat Clinton. She has to hope the GOP comes up with someone unelectable. THEN she has to be ready for the inevitable anti-Hillary onslaught. Hell, she has to be ready for it, now, from both sides.
Richardson- I think this guy is going to wind up the Dem candidate- Clinton and Obama punch each other out, and Richardson will be the guy to slide in there.
Clark- His chance was 2000. He couldn't convert.
Sharpton- This guy again?
Gore- WHY DID YOU NOT DECLARE LAST NIGHT?! I WANT TO VOTE FOR YOU! RUN, DAMMIT, RUN! (Seriously, though, he's gained plenty of momentum since 2000, but doesn't realize it. If he wakes up to it and runs, he's a legitimate threat.)
GOP:
Brownback- Primary potential, but no shot in a general.
Cox- Hahahahahano.
Hunter- No shot.
Romney- A Republican from Massachusetts. Nuff said.
Smith- Okay, I consider myself really tuned in to this race and I've never even heard of this guy.
Gilmore- Him I needed to dig on, and... he's a Bush lackey. Consider the chances of a random Free Republic poster declaring today, and that Freeper's chances are equivalent to Gilmore's.
Huckabee- Possibly. Guiliani and McCain need to go out first, and the GOP doesn't tend to work like that, but should they, he's a possibility.
Guiliani- The current GOP alpha dog. GOP alpha dogs are tough to dislodge. They pick a guy and that's pretty much that. He's a lost cause in the general, though- 9/11 loses impact with every passing day, and once you peel that back, oh the skeletons in his closet.
McCain: Thinks he's the alpha dog. Isn't. Went from 'maverick' to 'biggest Bush lackey in Washington' in 5 seconds flat. Every McCain thread on Fark, I see a pic of him hugging Bush like he's his mommy. His chance was in 2000, and Rove stole it from him.
Paul- If he had name recognition, might get cross-aisle support. He doesn't. And he's got no shot at winning a primary.
Tancredo- 'Comic' relief. Will lose convincingly, but still get a disturbing amount of votes.
Thompson- The last good Governor we've had. Then he went into the Cabinet and immediately commenced babbling about how terrorists want to poison our food. Maybe before he went into the Cabinet, but not now.
Gingrich- Oh HELL no.
Hagel- A possibility in the general, but he's got the same problem Huckabee has, and his base support is low, killing him in a primary.
Savage- he's doing WHAT?! Oh, this should be classic.
THIRDS:
Constitution field- This election will either cement them as an establishment (as angered base supporters break off from the GOP) or kill them as a party (because of the ideology being raked over the coals).
Green field- Depends on what the Dems do, and the Dems are adopting enough of the Green platform to where it's gonna be one more uneventful year. America has people going in this direction- me included- and were the Dems not doing anything special, the Greens might threaten the magic 5% mark, but the Dems are shifting left enough to where the Greens, while seeing their policies get warmer receptions, don't gain any new actual voters.
Libertarian field- They WILL see an increase in membership from disgruntled Republicans who stop short of voting Dem. Unlike the Greens, the GOP is not adopting anything the Libertarians say, in fact drifting further right if anything. THEY might threaten 5%.
My top pick (Warner) is out of the race already and I don't like any of the other options.
I think Huckabee is the guy on the right that everyone is underestimating. I'd like to see Obama win it on the left, but I think Hillary is to firmly entrenched to get out.
He just seems so awesome.
That branch of the GOp is also the branch that's growing to hate survailence programs and religious nonsense being the definitions of "conservative". There's a reason the GOP lost significant numbers in the Northwest and Rural Northeast in the last election.
And yeah, I agree that Gore probably isn't going to run. He's been saying it, and I think he means it. He'd make a good EPA chair, though.
Have you ever watched Huckabee talk?
I mean, seriously. The guy is a joke.
And fuck third parties. Useless.
I'm surprised to be hearing this from you of all people, Shinto.
I'd swear that we've thrown down in the past over third parties, you being pro, me being con.
Hillary is going to get the nomination but won't pick Obama as VP and will probably be cold to him because he presented a challenge. In four to eight years, when Obama has another chance to run, his Senate record will be too long and liberal to get him in office.
I don't know, Obama's polling numbers consistently match Clinton in terms of primary contests and bet her in general match ups. I think that the field is really a toss up between the two right now, and we need to see what kind of a campaign each is running before we can make any calls.
It would be a sellout of the highest order, lose him most of his credibility with the Democratic Left, and would probably eliminate the possibility of a long, illustrious, high-powered Senate career, which I think he has in front of him right now if he loses the Dem primary.
*Spawnbroker, I'm going by the polls on Hillary- in the open-field primary polls, she comes in at a little bit under 50%, but her approval ratings are about the same as her vote totals, and just about everyone feels they know her well enough to make a decision (which means her totals aren't going to go much higher- every other name, even Gore, has at least some amount of people who don't know them, so THEY can gain some people yet). Obama has high approval and low name recognition, meaning as people get to know him, more people can warm up to him (or, alternatively, shy away), so he can rocket past Hillary. But it'll take so much work that he may need Hillary to be taken down before he can take the lead.
*Irond Will, Richardson is a mix of demographics and gut- swing state Hispanic, immigration is one of his big issues, and as for gut, he just SEEMS to me like the guy that would be in the correct position to take over the nomination- Democrats are notorious for not taking the front-runners, and Clinton and Obama are the front-runners. My gut says they both go down before Iowa. I look past those, and Richardson just seems to me like the guy that would take over. I'm totally going out on a limb, and not placing any money on it, but... I say Richardson. Edwards I don't think can get past third place (he still has Kerry stink on him and I think that kills him).
*As for McCain. The GOP, like I've said, is an alpha-dog party. They pick a guy and he's the nominee. Upsets, no matter how small, are uncommon. And I look at THEIR open-field primary polls, and... Guiliani beats McCain. He has been beating McCain by a fairly small, but consistent, margin ever since the polls started. McCain has snuck in the occasional win in a poll, and he has New Hampshire currently (albeit within the margin of error), but by and large it's been Guiliani all the way.
As for the Dems... werehippy, Hillary's got everybody dead to rights at the moment. However, one thing of note: While Hillary has 23 states, Iowa currently belongs to John Edwards.
http://bloggingheads.tv/video.php?id=201
This is a pretty good discussion between two libertarians, if you're able to wade past the chumminess. There's some good meat in there.
More or less. They poll people and determine their chances of winning. It's a good thing to do prior to blowing tens of millions so you can completely fail to get any votes.
I thought you were mainly blowing other people's money. And other people in general.
Okay, that last part was added by me.
It's simply too early to tell yet.
I dislike hilaey not so much because of her personaly. I think the Clintonian Democratic leadership is one of the things that casued the Dems to self-destruct for a good decade. The dems need new blood and new leadership.
My gut tells me that Obama is a cool guy, he is young, hasn't said anything against videogames and seems to believe in what he says, but I really have no idea what his take is on the international community. Of course he is against the war in Iraq, but there's more going on in the world.
....
Oh, LIBERTARIAN! I heard Lib as shorthand for liberal for so long that your post confused the hell out of me for a second.
You know, I'm far more interested in the Democratic primaries for obvious reasons, but the Republican ones are just giving me a headache now. If you asked me a year ago, I'd have said that McCain and Giuliani stood no chance. The religious right base is just too strong; McCain has that "remember when I called you guys evil?" skeleton in his closet, and Giuliani is gay-friendly and pro-choice.
But now...I just, just don't know. All the obvious neo-con and religious right candidates I expected fell apart. Santorum, Frist, Allen, Rice, or even another Bush I could have seen, but now between the President's popularity and the mid-terms, none of them are even in the running. The closest guy left is Brownback, but he has a long road ahead of him. On the other hand, I don't think anyone expected Kerry to win the nomination last time at this point, so who knows? And if McCain or Giuliani wins, would they even have a chance? Why would the Republican's strongest voting block even leave the house for one of them?
I would love to see a black man or a woman (not Hillary) become president in my lifetime, but what a lot of people forget about America is that the majority of this country is made up of white conservatives who would never want either a black man or a woman in office.
As advanced as we like to think we are as a country, we really aren't. It just appears that this country is more liberal and free thinking because the media tends to lean in that direction.
I just don't think obama or Hillary could ever win for the simple fact that they are a black man and a woman.
Do I like that this is the case? no. But I do believe this is the sad truth.
In regards to the advocates of his former empire: “I was going to have them all executed… the Royal Advocate talked me out of it.” -Shadowthrone (Emperor Kellanved)
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You believe this...why? I mean, yes, there are still racists in this country, but given that white people are barely the majority in the first place, you're arguing that almost the totality of white Americans are aggressively racist. That seems a tad high. I'd disagree with the idea that the majority are conservative as well, if only because of how bizarre the definitions of that word have become.
I'm discounting the racist/sexist element because, frankly, the same people who would vote strictly on that point are also the types who would never vote for someone with a capital D in parentheses after their name in the first place. Honestly, I think the number of people who would vote for a minority or woman president largely because they're a minority or woman outnumbers the counter-vote anyway at this point.