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The great hypecane of 2012 [Hurricane Sandy]

ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
edited October 2012 in Social Entropy++
BEWARE THE HYPEDCANE OF 2012!
475px-Sandy_Oct_25_2012_1530Z.jpg

So the Canadian and Euro computer models have been pointing towards a super storm slamming the North East of the United States over the start of next week and on through Halloween. With time the other models such as both the GFS ensembles and operational models and the NAM have come to agree with the aforementioned models and show a pretty bleak picture for portions of the Northeast. Here is what will likely happen and what you need to know if you live in the path of Hurricane Sandy.

Currently Hurricane Sandy is affecting portions of the Bahamas as well south east Florida as a category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph. Over the next couple of days the low pressure center of Sandy will deepen with in the atmosphere and go from being a surface feature to becoming both a strong surface low and a strong 500mb upper cutoff low. When a hurricane does this it is transitioning from a tropical cyclone to an extra-tropical low, the kind of low pressure systems that move across the country bringing with it unsettled weather. Some times, when coupled with extremely tight pressure gradients and very low central pressures these powerful lows can cause havoc with strong winds. Couple them with a powerful upper level low and they can also bring with them strong thunderstorms, or powerful blizzards. Sandy will be one of those extreme lows both at the surface and at the upper level. In essence it will act the same as a normal hurricane in that it will have very strong winds, relentless flooding rains, and dangerous storm surge.

To make matters worse for the Northeast is that not only will Sandy be coming on shore as a hybrid hurricane-Nor'easter (strong extra-tropical lows that move into the Northeast from the Atlantic and cause strong gale winds as well as biting blizzards and floods.) But it will be merging with a very amplified and deep upper level trough in the jet stream. This 500mb trough, a form of upper level low, is currently driving the powerful cold snap and arctic front that is ending the mini heatwave known as an indian summer over the Midwest. This cold air and the strength of the upper level low will only further enhance Sandy and allow her to actually grow stronger as she comes ashore. This process can be seen in the animation I made bellow. The red line marks the trough to make it easier to see. The red "L" represents a low pressure center and embedded shortwave lows in the trough, and the blue "H" is representative of an area of high pressure. The thing to watch here is how Sandy merges with the trough of low pressure and then pulls the shortwave lows and the dominant center of the trough into it as it moves towards the North East.

8145e8df135577bf767ef1eeb3ea44b9.gif

The above slides were taking from the 18z run of the GFS from today and runs from 18z to 168 hours into the future from 18z.

So now that you know the meteorology behind what is headed for the Northeast, now here is what you can expect if you live in the path of this storm. The exact area to be affected by this storm is still not certain but in the graphic bellow by the National Hurricane Center shows where Sandy is forecasted to make landfall at. Sandy will likely still be a Hurricane of Cat 1-2 strength and still finishing its transition into a Nor'easter as it makes landfall somewhere near New Jersey or Delaware. Areas along those coasts, especially to the north of the eye, can expect a fairly significant storm surge over several feet in elevation. Winds will be anywhere from the upper 70's to 110mph at land fall. In addition to this torrential rains will affect much of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Virginia, and Vermont. These rains will cause substantial flooding in excess of the 100 year flood mark. Areas on the far west and north regions of the aforementioned areas, and areas of a higher elevation in the Appellation Mountains will see up to several feet of blowing snow and extremely low temps. While this storm will only prompt minimal evacuations of areas directly on the coast, people in the path of this will all need to be ready for power outages, cold temps, lots of rain, and are advised to be ready by stocking up on items such as food, water, and other essential times to make it through two-seven days at home. Although this technically is a super storm by definition do not buy in to the apocalyptic hype that the media will begin to flood you with. This is a very survivable storm that with a little common sense will be easy to ride out. It is a good idea that if you live near a body of water or in a low lying area that you review if you have flood insurance and whether or not your home is at a danger of flooding in a 100 year flood.

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Here is what the forecast models are saying tonight about Sandy and where they think she will go.

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Beyond the areas that will be affected by the landfall, the entire eastern seaboard from the tip of Florida to Maine can expect tropical storm force winds, minor storm surges and exaggerated tides, dangerous rip currents, large coastal breaking swells, and strong squalls.

So who of all of you are in the path of this storm and what if anything are you doing about it? I am pretty curious and I may be chasing this hurricane from New Jersey.

Chimera on
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    Lost SalientLost Salient blink twice if you'd like me to mercy kill youRegistered User regular
    In which we discover that my fame as a walking disaster has finally led to them naming a hurricane after me

    about dang time

    RUVCwyu.jpg
    "Sandra has a good solid anti-murderer vibe. My skin felt very secure and sufficiently attached to my body when I met her. Also my organs." HAIL SATAN
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    AntimatterAntimatter Devo Was Right Gates of SteelRegistered User regular
    In which we discover that my fame as a walking disaster has finally led to them naming a hurricane after me

    about dang time
    aw hell

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Not just any old Hurricane.... A SUPERSTORM!

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    Goose!Goose! That's me, honey Show me the way home, honeyRegistered User regular
    Shit that thing is pretty much headed right for Long Island. That's gonna be fun

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    One thing to note is that this storm will be happening on the 12 anniversary of "The Perfect Storm," aka the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. This storm was the result Hurricane Grace being absorbed by a Nor'easter that went on to become a hurricane its self. This storm is famous for sinking the Andrea Gail which the move, "The Perfect Storm" is about. The storm also produced extensive coastal damage in the form of large breaking waves that washed away some 100 homes for the Massachusetts coast and did over $200 million in damages. Waves up to 30 feet high were recorded as far away as Puerto Rico from this storm and out a sea a NOAA buoy recorded an astonishing 100 foot wave. It also caused widespread power outages and wind damage across the coast of New England. This storm actually did more damage than Hurricane Bob did a few months earlier in the same area. This may be due to the fact that the area trees and shorelines were still weak from Bob and thus not able to handle The Perfect Storm. The name "The 1991 Perfect Storm" is the official name of the storm.

    The difference with this storm and the 1991 storm is that the Hurricane is the dominant cyclone and it is merging with an upper level trough while becoming a Nor'easter as apposed to a dominant Nor'easter ingesting a hurricane. Sandy will actually be a more powerful storm than the 1991 storm was if current forecasts hold true.

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    the Professorthe Professor PONY ROMNEY DOES NOT CARE PONY ROMNEY WILL CUT YOUR FUNDINGRegistered User regular
    edited October 2012
    People were telling us Long Islanders to stick our heads between our legs and kiss our asses goodbye when Hurricane Irene rolled around. Hurricane of the year, they said. Gonna wreck all of our stuff, they said.

    I expect a little bit of rain and wind this time around, too. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I'm inclined to think that this is another case of people letting things go to their heads...

    EDIT:

    I named my house Storm's End after Irene hit it with all of her exceptionally weak might.

    Bring on your storm, then, Sandy. And recall, if you will, the name of this castle.

    the Professor on
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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Well yes and no, while the media surely will hype this event it will be much worse than Irene. I am not one to over hype an event and honestly Irene looked like a bust to me before it hit and that is why I was not there to chase it. This will be different if the models hold true and there is little sign that they are not. Don't let the previous media instances of crying the sky is falling when it is not be something that leaves you unprepared. This event wont be as apocalyptic as the media will make it out to be but it will be a serious storm to not take lightly as a little gusty wind and rain. Long Island may be a bit too far north of the landfall to get the brunt of a land falling storm but it will still have to contend with some severe conditions.

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    the Professorthe Professor PONY ROMNEY DOES NOT CARE PONY ROMNEY WILL CUT YOUR FUNDINGRegistered User regular
    edited October 2012
    Chimera wrote: »
    Well yes and no, while the media surely will hype this event it will be much worse than Irene. I am not one to over hype an event and honestly Irene looked like a bust to me before it hit and that is why I was not there to chase it. This will be different if the models hold true and there is little sign that they are not. Don't let the previous media instances of crying the sky is falling when it is not be something that leaves you unprepared. This event wont be as apocalyptic as the media will make it out to be but it will be a serious storm to not take lightly as a little gusty wind and rain. Long Island may be a bit too far north of the landfall to get the brunt of a land falling storm but it will still have to contend with some severe conditions.

    Fair enough. I have lots of stockpiled food, enough water for weeks, ammunition, clean firearms...I think I'm good.

    The only thing I lack are beer and cigarettes. I live next to an Indian Reservation, so I guess I'm gonna be getting one of those SACKS O' CIGARETTES for 15$.

    Anything else you feel I am wanting?

    EDIT: I'll also get gasoline for my vehicles, and talk to my friends about some things and stuff.

    the Professor on
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    BarcardiBarcardi All the Wizards Under A Rock: AfganistanRegistered User regular
    edited October 2012
    Chimera wrote: »
    One thing to note is that this storm will be happening on the 12 anniversary of "The Perfect Storm," aka the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. This storm was the result Hurricane Grace being absorbed by a Nor'easter that went on to become a hurricane its self. This storm is famous for sinking the Andrea Gail which the move, "The Perfect Storm" is about. The storm also produced extensive coastal damage in the form of large breaking waves that washed away some 100 homes for the Massachusetts coast and did over $200 million in damages. Waves up to 30 feet high were recorded as far away as Puerto Rico from this storm and out a sea a NOAA buoy recorded an astonishing 100 foot wave. It also caused widespread power outages and wind damage across the coast of New England. This storm actually did more damage than Hurricane Bob did a few months earlier in the same area. This may be due to the fact that the area trees and shorelines were still weak from Bob and thus not able to handle The Perfect Storm. The name "The 1991 Perfect Storm" is the official name of the storm.

    The difference with this storm and the 1991 storm is that the Hurricane is the dominant cyclone and it is merging with an upper level trough while becoming a Nor'easter as apposed to a dominant Nor'easter ingesting a hurricane. Sandy will actually be a more powerful storm than the 1991 storm was if current forecasts hold true.

    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college. Those things a surprisingly common, at least relative to how rare we thought they were.

    Hope this thing does not get too bad. Hell, i hope they are ready for this thing in New York, especially around the new tower.

    Barcardi on
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    the Professorthe Professor PONY ROMNEY DOES NOT CARE PONY ROMNEY WILL CUT YOUR FUNDINGRegistered User regular
    Barcardi wrote: »
    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college.
    Chimera wrote: »
    One thing to note is that this storm will be happening on the 12 anniversary of "The Perfect Storm," aka the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. This storm was the result Hurricane Grace being absorbed by a Nor'easter that went on to become a hurricane its self. This storm is famous for sinking the Andrea Gail which the move, "The Perfect Storm" is about. The storm also produced extensive coastal damage in the form of large breaking waves that washed away some 100 homes for the Massachusetts coast and did over $200 million in damages. Waves up to 30 feet high were recorded as far away as Puerto Rico from this storm and out a sea a NOAA buoy recorded an astonishing 100 foot wave. It also caused widespread power outages and wind damage across the coast of New England. This storm actually did more damage than Hurricane Bob did a few months earlier in the same area. This may be due to the fact that the area trees and shorelines were still weak from Bob and thus not able to handle The Perfect Storm. The name "The 1991 Perfect Storm" is the official name of the storm.

    The difference with this storm and the 1991 storm is that the Hurricane is the dominant cyclone and it is merging with an upper level trough while becoming a Nor'easter as apposed to a dominant Nor'easter ingesting a hurricane. Sandy will actually be a more powerful storm than the 1991 storm was if current forecasts hold true.

    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college. Those things a surprisingly common, at least relative to how rare we thought they were.

    Hope this thing does not get too bad. Hell, i hope they are ready for this thing in New York, especially around the new tower.

    Hey, man, I like 100 foot waves, too, but I live pretty close to the beach.

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    BarcardiBarcardi All the Wizards Under A Rock: AfganistanRegistered User regular
    Barcardi wrote: »
    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college.
    Chimera wrote: »
    One thing to note is that this storm will be happening on the 12 anniversary of "The Perfect Storm," aka the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. This storm was the result Hurricane Grace being absorbed by a Nor'easter that went on to become a hurricane its self. This storm is famous for sinking the Andrea Gail which the move, "The Perfect Storm" is about. The storm also produced extensive coastal damage in the form of large breaking waves that washed away some 100 homes for the Massachusetts coast and did over $200 million in damages. Waves up to 30 feet high were recorded as far away as Puerto Rico from this storm and out a sea a NOAA buoy recorded an astonishing 100 foot wave. It also caused widespread power outages and wind damage across the coast of New England. This storm actually did more damage than Hurricane Bob did a few months earlier in the same area. This may be due to the fact that the area trees and shorelines were still weak from Bob and thus not able to handle The Perfect Storm. The name "The 1991 Perfect Storm" is the official name of the storm.

    The difference with this storm and the 1991 storm is that the Hurricane is the dominant cyclone and it is merging with an upper level trough while becoming a Nor'easter as apposed to a dominant Nor'easter ingesting a hurricane. Sandy will actually be a more powerful storm than the 1991 storm was if current forecasts hold true.

    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college. Those things a surprisingly common, at least relative to how rare we thought they were.

    Hope this thing does not get too bad. Hell, i hope they are ready for this thing in New York, especially around the new tower.

    Hey, man, I like 100 foot waves, too, but I live pretty close to the beach.

    Man this quote relocation is freaking me out.

    Most 100 foot waves break off the continental shelf, not on the beach. Thankfully.

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    the Professorthe Professor PONY ROMNEY DOES NOT CARE PONY ROMNEY WILL CUT YOUR FUNDINGRegistered User regular
    Barcardi wrote: »
    Barcardi wrote: »
    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college.
    Chimera wrote: »
    One thing to note is that this storm will be happening on the 12 anniversary of "The Perfect Storm," aka the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991. This storm was the result Hurricane Grace being absorbed by a Nor'easter that went on to become a hurricane its self. This storm is famous for sinking the Andrea Gail which the move, "The Perfect Storm" is about. The storm also produced extensive coastal damage in the form of large breaking waves that washed away some 100 homes for the Massachusetts coast and did over $200 million in damages. Waves up to 30 feet high were recorded as far away as Puerto Rico from this storm and out a sea a NOAA buoy recorded an astonishing 100 foot wave. It also caused widespread power outages and wind damage across the coast of New England. This storm actually did more damage than Hurricane Bob did a few months earlier in the same area. This may be due to the fact that the area trees and shorelines were still weak from Bob and thus not able to handle The Perfect Storm. The name "The 1991 Perfect Storm" is the official name of the storm.

    The difference with this storm and the 1991 storm is that the Hurricane is the dominant cyclone and it is merging with an upper level trough while becoming a Nor'easter as apposed to a dominant Nor'easter ingesting a hurricane. Sandy will actually be a more powerful storm than the 1991 storm was if current forecasts hold true.

    I know its dangerous and everything but the very concept of a 100 foot wave is really fascinating to me, i wish i studied that aspect of physics in college. Those things a surprisingly common, at least relative to how rare we thought they were.

    Hope this thing does not get too bad. Hell, i hope they are ready for this thing in New York, especially around the new tower.

    Hey, man, I like 100 foot waves, too, but I live pretty close to the beach.

    Man this quote relocation is freaking me out.

    Most 100 foot waves break off the continental shelf, not on the beach. Thankfully.

    I have a surfboard. It'd be pretty dope if I could surf that B. No chance of that happening, though, and like you said, I should be squared away.

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    Johnny ChopsockyJohnny Chopsocky Scootaloo! We have to cook! Grillin' HaysenburgersRegistered User regular
    I'm disappointed

    They got all the way to the letter "S" and they didn't name it "Scrambles the Death Dealer"

    Missed opportunity

    ygPIJ.gif
    Steam ID XBL: JohnnyChopsocky PSN:Stud_Beefpile WiiU:JohnnyChopsocky
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    the Professorthe Professor PONY ROMNEY DOES NOT CARE PONY ROMNEY WILL CUT YOUR FUNDINGRegistered User regular
    I'm disappointed

    They got all the way to the letter "S" and they didn't name it "Scrambles the Death Dealer"

    Missed opportunity

    my penny was on Skadi The Giantess myself

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    godmodegodmode Southeast JapanRegistered User regular
    This hurricane is going to be right up by DC on the day of my job interview. Thanks a lot @Lost Salient

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    UnbreakableVowUnbreakableVow Registered User regular
    This year's T-named tropical storm was named after me but apparently it already broke up in an insignificant manner

    A screaming indictment of my life

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    There still hasn't been a Hurricane Chimera D:

    And yes Toby was an utter disappointment and instantly forgettable! :D

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    lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    hmm

    i should make sure my mom is aware of this.

    also, @Chimera, your OP is like my mini meteorology hopeful nerd wet dream. <3

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    ZuelZuel Registered User regular
    Supposed to go to a outside wedding Saturday night. Probably not going to that now.

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    BigBearBigBear If your life had a face, I would punch it. Registered User regular
    Ugh, why does this thing have to come here on fucking Halloween!? Fuckity fuck fuck fuuuuuuuck.

    Here's hoping everyone's wrong, and that a cold front or something will come and push it out to sea.

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    Dead LegendDead Legend Registered User regular
    @Chimera what an awesome thread, as usual

    Fucking love weather

    diablo III - beardsnbeer#1508 Mechwarrior Online - Rusty Bock
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    JasconiusJasconius sword criminal mad onlineRegistered User regular
    hurricanes aint nothin


    its the road signs they hurl into your chest cavity at 110MPH that is the real issue at hand

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    Mortal SkyMortal Sky queer punk hedge witchRegistered User regular
    Of course this happens on my birthday.

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    HunterHunter Chemist with a heart of Au Registered User regular
    Jasconius wrote: »
    hurricanes aint nothin


    its the road signs they hurl into your chest cavity at 110MPH that is the real issue at hand

    Thank you the comedy styles of Ron White

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    LanglyLangly Registered User regular
    I'm in DC, we're getting some uh, flashlight batteries I think.

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    PeenPeen Registered User regular
    Psh, Irene. More like hurrican't, am I right?

    Seriously people are going to ignore this storm because of that and I hope it doesn't turn out to be terrible.

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    SassoriSassori Registered User regular
    Ugh.

    I really hope I'm not stuck with my roommates because we lose power.

    I need electricity to distract me from how annoying they are. Time to charge my kindle, iPod, DS, and whatever else I can find.

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    JasconiusJasconius sword criminal mad onlineRegistered User regular
    Hunter wrote: »
    Jasconius wrote: »
    hurricanes aint nothin


    its the road signs they hurl into your chest cavity at 110MPH that is the real issue at hand

    Thank you the comedy styles of Ron White

    the man makes numerous salient points

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    The Good Doctor TranThe Good Doctor Tran Registered User regular
    I don't know if this is the hurricane but it's super foggy in Raleigh right now. For Raleigh, anyway. Almost made me oversleep and miss work, I tell you what.

    LoL & Spiral Knights & MC & SMNC: Carrington - Origin: CarringtonPlus - Steam: skdrtran
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    JayKaosJayKaos Registered User regular
    I hope my internet at home comes back before this hits so I can pre-emptively download a bunch of shit onto my various tablets in case things go south.

    I wonder how much the city will freak out though, for Irene they shut down the subway and bridges well in advance and it ended up barely touching us. They mainly did that because people had gotten mad at being unprepared for the storm before that, though, so I guess it depends on whether they're more scared of being unprepared, or more scared of looking like fools once again for being too prepared. Politics, woo.

    Steam | SW-0844-0908-6004 and my Switch code
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    HotandnerdyHotandnerdy Hot and Nerdy Kansas CityRegistered User regular
    Sassori wrote: »
    Ugh.

    I really hope I'm not stuck with my roommates because we lose power.

    I need electricity to distract me from how annoying they are. Time to charge my kindle, iPod, DS, and whatever else I can find.

    Good plan! :)

    girl.jpg
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    PeccaviPeccavi Registered User regular
    godmode wrote: »
    This hurricane is going to be right up by DC on the day of my job interview. Thanks a lot @Lost Salient

    God Dammit, every time you come up...

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    GyralGyral Registered User regular
    You can't see me, but I'm making "Wide Left Field Goal" motions in hopes that it'll force the storm to miss Eastern NC.

    25t9pjnmqicf.jpg
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    LanglyLangly Registered User regular
    hot, but also nerdy

    ben+parka+2.jpg

    dress more appropriately for the climate, then!

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    BigBear wrote: »
    Ugh, why does this thing have to come here on fucking Halloween!? Fuckity fuck fuck fuuuuuuuck.

    Here's hoping everyone's wrong, and that a cold front or something will come and push it out to sea.

    Usually you would have a front and its associated trough be what saves the east coas by smacking into the storm and weakening it or forcing i back out to sea (see: Irene, Earl) but this situation is different as the Hurricane will be well on its way in trasition to a Hor'easter by the time the front and trough catch up with it. Instead of those two items working against Sandy's wishes of smashing the east coast they will actually extend out their hands and help further enhance Sandy's destructive potential.
    Gyral wrote: »
    You can't see me, but I'm making "Wide Left Field Goal" motions in hopes that it'll force the storm to miss Eastern NC.

    North Carolina will only be affected by the far western and southern edges of Sandy as it spins around it to impact areas farther east and north. Only the outer banks will be at an elevated risk from this storm. Those threats include large braking waves up to 30ft high which can lead to beach erosion, and possibly tropical storm force conditions.
    I don't know if this is the hurricane but it's super foggy in Raleigh right now. For Raleigh, anyway. Almost made me oversleep and miss work, I tell you what.

    You wont be feeling Sandy's effects quite yet, the fog is unrelated.

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    PharezonPharezon Struggle is an illusion. Victory is in the Qun.Registered User regular
    Global ... warming?

    jkZziGc.png
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    MillMill Registered User regular
    Well here's hoping that derecho earlier this year knocked down all the trees that could have caused power outages for me this year without making other ones likely to topple over.

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    AdvocateAdvocate Registered User regular
    There is no way this isn't going to suck. Irene knocked power out on my block for a week, and this looks to be worse. All this on the weekend of my birthday too, I hope I can at least go out to celebrate tomorrow.

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    ChimeraChimera Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyes Bad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
    Pharezon wrote: »
    Global ... warming?

    GET OUT. D:<

    *Meteorologically speaking it is impossible to tie a single event or even one single hurricane season to global warming. Currently, despite what some climatologists claim, the current meteorological thoughts are that we have yet to see a significant enough change to the annual number and intensity of storms to yet see any positive or negative effects that global warming has had on the Northern Atlantic Hurricane Season. The current belief is that if and when global warming does start to affect the hurricane season we may see more storms but we will see less major tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. The traditional hurricane season in the Atlantic runs until mid-November so although this is a late season storm it still is in a period that we have not uncommonly seen storms form and affect the east coast.

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    AbracadanielAbracadaniel Registered User regular
    Hahaha that projected path

    what the fuck, Sandy

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