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[US ELECTION PREDICTIONS] - Predicting precincts and popular votes
PantsB
Fake Thomas JeffersonRegistered User regular
Fake Thomas JeffersonRegistered User regular
So turns out the Presidency and most of the Government of the world's only Superpower will be elected on Tuesday (November 6th 2012). While this will have far reaching effects across the globe economically, politically, fiscally, socially, culturally, diplomatically, culinarily, audibly and physically, what really matters is demonstrating how smart we are by correctly predicting how its all going to happen. Since the Congress/Presidential threads are likely to fly by especially on Tuesday, this thread can allow us to track what we think is going to happen in the horse race that will determine the fates of millions.
In order to maintain proper topic sequestration, please only put predictions and reasoning in this thread with only minor responses. This isn't the thread for policy positions, news, new polls, who you voted for, calling someone a goose for who they voted for etc etc. We already have those threads.
The big races are of course:
Leader of the Free World
President Barack Obama v Governor Mitt Romney
v 
States by poll closing time EST
Core contested states bolded
Control of the US Senate
Competitive races in second post
and Control of US House of Representatives
There's 435 of these and no one in the country knows all of them. Most aren't particular competitive but if you have some favorites by all means make these predictions as well.
In order to maintain proper topic sequestration, please only put predictions and reasoning in this thread with only minor responses. This isn't the thread for policy positions, news, new polls, who you voted for, calling someone a goose for who they voted for etc etc. We already have those threads.
The big races are of course:
Leader of the Free World
President Barack Obama v Governor Mitt Romney
v States by poll closing time EST
Core contested states bolded
7PM
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
730
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
800
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington, DC
830
Arkansas
900
Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
1000
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah
1100
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
1am
Alaska
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
730
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
800
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington, DC
830
Arkansas
900
Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
1000
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah
1100
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington
1am
Alaska
Control of the US Senate
Competitive races in second post
and Control of US House of Representatives
There's 435 of these and no one in the country knows all of them. Most aren't particular competitive but if you have some favorites by all means make these predictions as well.
0
Posts
Arizona (Jon Kyl R retiring)
fmr Surgeon General Carmona (D) v Representative Jeff Flake (R)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman I/D retiring)
Representative Chris Murphy (D) vs Linda McMahon (R)
Florida
Senator Bill Nelson (D) v Representative Connie Mack IV (R)
Indiana (Rick Lugar, defeated in R primary)
Representative Joe Donnelly (D) v Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R)
Maine (Olympia Snowe R retiring)
former Governor Angus King (I) v Cynthia Dill (D) v Maine Sec of State Charlie Summers (R)
Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D) v Senator Scott Brown (R)
Missouri
Senator Claire McCaskill (D) v Representative Todd Akin
Nebraska (Ben Nelson D retiring)
former Senator Bob Kerry (D) v state Senator Deb Fischer (R)
Nevada
Representative Shelley Berkley (D) v Senator Dean Heller (R)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman D retiring)
Representative Martin Heinrich (D) v fmr Representative Heather Wilson (R)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad D retiring)
fmr ND Sec of State Heidi Heitkamp (D) v Representative Rick Berg (R)
Ohio
Senator Sherrod Brown (D) v OH Treasurer Josh Mandel (R)
Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey Jr v Tom Smith (R)
Virginia (Jim Webb D retiring)
fmr Governor Tim Kaine (D) v fmr Senator George Allen (R)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl D retiring)
Representative Tammy Baldwin (D) v fmr Governor Tommy Thompson (R)
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
E: This will serve as my prediction... I think we're looking at around 330-208 Obama.
Senate: 54 (including the indep. that will caucus with the Dems). Not hopeful on them actually finding their spines and using that to kill/reform the filibuster at the start of the session, though.
What is actually possible, but I'm not holding my breath:
Senate stays Blue, thanks to the GOP's obsession with rape and racism.
House stays Red, but I think that gap narrows. If the second map happens we might switch, but that's really unlikely even in an Obama landslide.
They currently have a net change of zero seats.
Though I have a sneaking suspicion that it could end up 294-244, I am not very confident in CO.
Senatewise, I think it'll be 53-47 after that brutal Mourdock polling that came out today.
For the house? No clue, ain't got time to start following that many races, but I am almost certain the republicans will retain control of the chamber, but probably with a slightly shrunken advantage.
I do this because my predictions are always wrong
It's interesting they don't even list VA-07 as competitive (probably because there's no polling seemingly anywhere).
Talk is it's surprisingly competitive as Cantor has garnered so much dislike over the last two years. It's always been a pretty solidly red district, though.
270towin.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
For simplicity regarding the big seat, I suggest this (maybe with 270towin link)
For the Senate:
And House swing
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
For the Senate: Democratic gain in Senate - +2.5 mostly on the backs of weak-ass candidates
Nebraska will tease but still end up a 3-4 point race in the end.
And House swing +19 D
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
I really hope I'm wrong about OH but the more I look at the polling and the voting pattern in past elections the more likely I think this will be.
My guess is there will be recounts out the ass in multiple states but this will not be a blow out election for either party but rather a very close and contested one.
For the Senate:
D + 4.5
House: God knows, let's say D + 15, because America is dumb.
Can I have some of your drugs?
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Dems pick up 2 seats in the senate, winning in Massachusetts, Missouri, and Indiana but losing in Nebraska
Dems pick up about 5-10 seats in the House.
That would be a 1-seat gain, unless you forgot to mention Arizona.
NV red but CO blue? I'm curious what your thought process behind that is?
I think the economy will sink Obama in NV, as for CO it's one of the ones where I'm running on a hunch. Could go either way really.
Senate: D+1 pickups
House? Fuck, I dunno. R+less than now but more than zero.
This would be a surprising development. If Obama can't get NV he isn't getting CO.
Wednesday morning the GOP will look at exit polls and shit themselves over Women and Latino votes say that Romney wasn't conservative enough.
For a more interesting prediction, which race / state will be the Florida (2000) / Ohio (2004) / Minnesota (2008 - Franken) this year?
Either way he'll win, it's just a matter of a give and take on one or two swing states. Some of them are so close it's pretty difficult to guess.
For the Senate:
House swing +10 or 11 to the Dems (edit: that's net gain, not final balance - R's will still have majority, just a smaller one)
EDIT: I'm leaving that smiley in place because it accurately sums up my feelings about North Dakota
Honestly though I don't see Obama losing NV. He's up an average 2.7 and has held steady at that. it is also close to the average that Bush won the state in 2004 which shows it leans incumbent.
In CO Obama is only up by 0.9 which pushes him into a closer battle maybe even a loss in the state given up until now they did vote incumbent by the same margins in each election. IE 2000 +8.5, 2004 +4.7 , it looks similar for Bill Clinton in 1996 and I can't find 1992 data for the state. Obama won CO with + 9.0 Now he is only up 0.9. Not even close to it's voting history so that is why giving Nevada to Romney and Obama CO seams a bit backwards.
Fair enough, consider my guess switched.
That's true, I'm just saying that Nevada isn't really one of them anymore.
CO could go either way, as could FL and VA and to a lesser extent (it's pretty solidly Romney) NC.
The Green party takes the House, because Americans like to split their ticket.
Edit: Connecticut for Lieberman takes the Senate.
Shrug, Nevada doesn't lean incumbent, it just used to lean R and now leans D because of changing demographics. Bush carried the state in 2004 by almost an identical amount to his national popular vote advantage.
States rarely have a preference for incumbent/challenger, but do have an average amount they tend to wander from the national average. Nevada's has shifted from a strong R lean years ago, to a moderate R lean recently, to now a D lean. Also Harry Reid's crazy GOTV machine is powerful.
CO is basically a coinflip though, yea.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Obama takes the usual suspects, the swing states (OH, FL, CO, IA, VA, NH), and he takes North Carolina.
If his extra good vibes do hold, I expect 1 or 2 surprises in the big O's favor much like Indiana was 4 years ago. So Indiana, Missouri, or Arizona may (barely) flip to Obama.
Also another surprise will be Texas. Not "too close to call" territory, but the margin of Romney victory is noticeably shrunken from previous years.
Not gonna get bogged down in house and senate, as I either don't know enough about the Senate and it'll just be guesses, but I'll say Warren, Donnelly, McCaskill, and Sherrod Brown win, D's gain grown in the Senate. House remains R, but by a small margin. If the Sandy bump trickles down to D's in Congress they could swing the whole thing, but I don't really see any reason to believe it will sadly.
As a Nevada Voter, I must say I've seen little evidence of this. Getting TONS of anti-Obama shit, and not much else. Not seeing any old men stopping to staple an Obama/Biden sign to every power pole for at least two miles.
Yep, while they're convincing telephone polls and grass, voters are being persuaded and mobilized by Obama's people
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+