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The Middle East - Oh right, still a war in Syria
[Tycho?]![[Tycho?]](https://us.v-cdn.net/5018289/uploads/userpics/934/nHG8VEMRTY5QM.gif)
As elusive as doubtRegistered User regular
As elusive as doubtRegistered User regular
Welcome back to the Middle East Thread, 3rd edition.
An awful lot has changed since we last had an OP. What follows is a bit of a primer, with some information on the region in general and some of the specific events that have taken place over the past year and a half or so.
This is the thread for talking about the goings on in these countries, including current events, history, travel and general interest. Discussion is pretty wide ranging but usually holds pretty close to whats going on in the region, and with all the revolutions and wars and attacks there is usually no shortage of things to talk about. For discussion of things like Islam please see Ham's thread on the subject.
We all know arguments can be common in this sort of discussion, especially around Israel/Palestine. So far everyone has conducted themselves very well, but we'll keep a reminder to play nice. Cite your sources, avoid attacks on other posters, and generally be willing to let a point drop; people have been debating this for decades, we probably wont be solving much here anyway.
Below is a bit of a primer. It is by no means complete, and as it was assembled mostly through memory it can't be called perfectly accurate or unbiased. Suggestions for more resources are welcome, especially media like photos, videos and maps.
Middle East
What do we mean by this? Well I stole a map from wikipedia which I think does an excellent job:
The dark green is the "traditional" Middle east. The lighter green in the North of Africa indicates nations that are mostly Arabic and Muslim; this region is called the Maghreb. Somalia is on there for its proximity to the Arabian Peninsula, and it is also Muslim. The lighter greens in Asia are not Arabic, but are all Muslim. Calling Pakistan or Kazakhstan part of the Middle East is frankly absurd, but current conflicts mean that you hear the term come up. The Caucuses (light green, the small region north of Turkey and Iran, south of Russia) is the only region that has Christian nations, though plenty of Muslims are there as well.
Israel and the Palestinians
The latest flare-up.
Things were looking rocky for several days as militant groups in Gaza fired rockets into Israel, while the IDF launched airstrikes into Gaza. These generally didn't result in any casualties, and so didn't get a lot of press, especially in the West. However, things heated up when an IDF jeep on a patrol of the border was hit with an anti-tank rocket. Israel responded by assassinating al-Jabari, the head of the military wing of Hamas. From there violence escalated rapidly, and as of this writing on November 18th the attacks are frequent from both sides. Israel doesn't seem inclined to launch a ground operation, but I think they would do so in retaliation from a successful attack from Gaza. Below are videos of the attack on the jeep and the assassination. In our new social media world, both these videos were instantly uploaded to the internet by both sides for propaganda purposes. Its anyone's guess as to when this current conflict will end.
The Arab Spring
Also called the Arab Awakening, perhaps more appropriate seeing how its lasted a lot longer than a season. This has been the biggest change in the region for at least several decades. It describes the uprisings, revolutions, protests, civil wars, interventions and continuing instability that have occurred all over the region.
Syria
Fallen Regimes:
Tunisia
Egypt
Yemen
Libya
Bahrain
Resources:
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2012/11/syria-in-ruins/100402/ Photos of the Syrian civil war. NSFW: shows blood, and death.
An awful lot has changed since we last had an OP. What follows is a bit of a primer, with some information on the region in general and some of the specific events that have taken place over the past year and a half or so.
This is the thread for talking about the goings on in these countries, including current events, history, travel and general interest. Discussion is pretty wide ranging but usually holds pretty close to whats going on in the region, and with all the revolutions and wars and attacks there is usually no shortage of things to talk about. For discussion of things like Islam please see Ham's thread on the subject.
We all know arguments can be common in this sort of discussion, especially around Israel/Palestine. So far everyone has conducted themselves very well, but we'll keep a reminder to play nice. Cite your sources, avoid attacks on other posters, and generally be willing to let a point drop; people have been debating this for decades, we probably wont be solving much here anyway.
Below is a bit of a primer. It is by no means complete, and as it was assembled mostly through memory it can't be called perfectly accurate or unbiased. Suggestions for more resources are welcome, especially media like photos, videos and maps.
Middle East
What do we mean by this? Well I stole a map from wikipedia which I think does an excellent job:
The dark green is the "traditional" Middle east. The lighter green in the North of Africa indicates nations that are mostly Arabic and Muslim; this region is called the Maghreb. Somalia is on there for its proximity to the Arabian Peninsula, and it is also Muslim. The lighter greens in Asia are not Arabic, but are all Muslim. Calling Pakistan or Kazakhstan part of the Middle East is frankly absurd, but current conflicts mean that you hear the term come up. The Caucuses (light green, the small region north of Turkey and Iran, south of Russia) is the only region that has Christian nations, though plenty of Muslims are there as well.
Israel and the Palestinians
The latest flare-up.
Things were looking rocky for several days as militant groups in Gaza fired rockets into Israel, while the IDF launched airstrikes into Gaza. These generally didn't result in any casualties, and so didn't get a lot of press, especially in the West. However, things heated up when an IDF jeep on a patrol of the border was hit with an anti-tank rocket. Israel responded by assassinating al-Jabari, the head of the military wing of Hamas. From there violence escalated rapidly, and as of this writing on November 18th the attacks are frequent from both sides. Israel doesn't seem inclined to launch a ground operation, but I think they would do so in retaliation from a successful attack from Gaza. Below are videos of the attack on the jeep and the assassination. In our new social media world, both these videos were instantly uploaded to the internet by both sides for propaganda purposes. Its anyone's guess as to when this current conflict will end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MmNn5WpJH0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6U2ZQ0EhN4The Arab Spring
Also called the Arab Awakening, perhaps more appropriate seeing how its lasted a lot longer than a season. This has been the biggest change in the region for at least several decades. It describes the uprisings, revolutions, protests, civil wars, interventions and continuing instability that have occurred all over the region.
Syria
Syria, the mess on everyone's mind at the moment. The uprisings in Syria took a bit longer to develop than those listed above. There were no large protests for several months after the events in Tunisia and Egypt. When protests did start, a crack down by the Assad regime began, with soldiers being called in to help quell the protests. While for a very long time this was characterized by Western media as the army attacking peaceful "activists", the reality is a bit more complicated than that. Violent attacks against Syrian army personnel started much earlier than was widely reported, with soldiers being shot and nobody claiming responsibility for it. Much like Libya, the total foreign-press blackout made it difficult to know what exactly was going on inside the country. Most media outlets have relied on youtube videos smuggled out by these "activists", though they are often not exactly trustworthy. While the conflict was pretty opaque, it was clear that there were widespread protests against Assad, and that significant and increasing violence was being used to put down the uprising, and later to defend it. The conflict has gotten worse and worse over time, with a large escalation occurring in 2012. It is now without any doubt a civil war that is being fought in Syria, and an increasingly bloody one at that.
Syria's sectarian landscape is a big part of the problem. Assad is an Alawite, which is basically a sort of Shia muslim. While his regime is secular, this religious element is playing a large role as Alwaites make up a minority in the country. Not surprisingly, most of the rebels have been Sunnis. Alawites and Christians in Syria have so far remained mostly loyal to the regime. Sunnis on the other hand have been fleeing the violence in droves, with hundreds of thousands going to Turkey and Jordan and other countries like Lebanon. Turkey, only a short time ago being an ally of Assad, became frustrated and finally enraged at Syria's treatment of the rebels and began openly supporting the overthrow of the regime. Many other states have followed in this support, including Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and most of NATO, particularity the US. These countries, particularly those in the Gulf, have begun funding and arming the rebels.
A word on the rebels. While they are often portrayed as being simply "The Free Syrian Army", that is in fact but one of several disparate rebel groups, which have no unified leadership. There are opposition groups in exile, and opposition groups inside Syria, along with a variety of armed groups, including foreign and local mujihadeen, all fighting Assad in one way or another. This makes Syria an especially complicated and messy conflict. For despite large scale rebel offensives (involving suicide bombings and the occasional tank or armoured car) in Damascus and the wealthy city of Aleppo, the rebels have still not broken Assad nor his supporters in over a year of fighting. Despite their optimism, it is far from certain that Assad will fall, especially seeing how Assad's own father himself violently put down a rebellion in the 80s, to the cost of tens of thousands of lives. Assad the older survived, and his son may as well. In the mean time, the only certainty seems to be more violence, and more instability. With refugees flowing out and arms and fighters flowing in, along with an increasingly involved -though divided- international reaction, this is a conflict that has a very real chance of spilling over into neighbouring nations. It has already done so to some degree in the Lebanon, with fighting occurring in the north of that country along similar pro- or anti-Assad lines.
Recently an assortment of rebels groups got together in Qatar (a key backer of Syrian and Libyan rebels) in an attempt by foriegn powers to unify the rebels into a more coherent force. Since then France has taken the lead in suggesting the West actively arm the rebels, however this has yet to be met with wide support. Many rightfully do not trust giving arms to groups that openly work with the likes of al-queda.
Above all, this is still a conflict that can change by the day, and has no end in sight.
Syria's sectarian landscape is a big part of the problem. Assad is an Alawite, which is basically a sort of Shia muslim. While his regime is secular, this religious element is playing a large role as Alwaites make up a minority in the country. Not surprisingly, most of the rebels have been Sunnis. Alawites and Christians in Syria have so far remained mostly loyal to the regime. Sunnis on the other hand have been fleeing the violence in droves, with hundreds of thousands going to Turkey and Jordan and other countries like Lebanon. Turkey, only a short time ago being an ally of Assad, became frustrated and finally enraged at Syria's treatment of the rebels and began openly supporting the overthrow of the regime. Many other states have followed in this support, including Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and most of NATO, particularity the US. These countries, particularly those in the Gulf, have begun funding and arming the rebels.
A word on the rebels. While they are often portrayed as being simply "The Free Syrian Army", that is in fact but one of several disparate rebel groups, which have no unified leadership. There are opposition groups in exile, and opposition groups inside Syria, along with a variety of armed groups, including foreign and local mujihadeen, all fighting Assad in one way or another. This makes Syria an especially complicated and messy conflict. For despite large scale rebel offensives (involving suicide bombings and the occasional tank or armoured car) in Damascus and the wealthy city of Aleppo, the rebels have still not broken Assad nor his supporters in over a year of fighting. Despite their optimism, it is far from certain that Assad will fall, especially seeing how Assad's own father himself violently put down a rebellion in the 80s, to the cost of tens of thousands of lives. Assad the older survived, and his son may as well. In the mean time, the only certainty seems to be more violence, and more instability. With refugees flowing out and arms and fighters flowing in, along with an increasingly involved -though divided- international reaction, this is a conflict that has a very real chance of spilling over into neighbouring nations. It has already done so to some degree in the Lebanon, with fighting occurring in the north of that country along similar pro- or anti-Assad lines.
Recently an assortment of rebels groups got together in Qatar (a key backer of Syrian and Libyan rebels) in an attempt by foriegn powers to unify the rebels into a more coherent force. Since then France has taken the lead in suggesting the West actively arm the rebels, however this has yet to be met with wide support. Many rightfully do not trust giving arms to groups that openly work with the likes of al-queda.
Above all, this is still a conflict that can change by the day, and has no end in sight.
Fallen Regimes:
Tunisia
A geographically small nation at the northern-most tip of Africa. Population of 10 million, virtually all Arabs. Its capital Tunis is on the Mediterranean and is the site of Carthage of old. For the last 23 years it has been run by Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. He ruled his country with an iron fist, violently stifling any dissent, and censoring communications. He was secular, with a pro-Western stance.
All this was changed by a man named Mohamed Bouazizi, who sold fruit from a small stall. He was very poor, and was routinely harassed by police. When they stole his fruit and insulted him in late december, he finally had enough. On December 17th he lit himself on fire in protest. He died a very painful death 18 days later.
The resulting protests were totally unprecedented. The masses of people took to the streets peacefully and demanded the president step down. The security response was botched, and Ben Ali fled the nation on January 14th, holing up in Saudi Arabia, having taken millions in gold and loot with him.
After the resignation of the president various members of the governing party attempted to take control by forming interim governments. Protests broke our periodically, forcing out members of the old regime, including the Prime Minister. Elections were held in 2011, with an Islamist party winning the most seats.
All this was changed by a man named Mohamed Bouazizi, who sold fruit from a small stall. He was very poor, and was routinely harassed by police. When they stole his fruit and insulted him in late december, he finally had enough. On December 17th he lit himself on fire in protest. He died a very painful death 18 days later.
The resulting protests were totally unprecedented. The masses of people took to the streets peacefully and demanded the president step down. The security response was botched, and Ben Ali fled the nation on January 14th, holing up in Saudi Arabia, having taken millions in gold and loot with him.
After the resignation of the president various members of the governing party attempted to take control by forming interim governments. Protests broke our periodically, forcing out members of the old regime, including the Prime Minister. Elections were held in 2011, with an Islamist party winning the most seats.
Egypt
Egypt is the heart of the Middle East. With 80 million people it is the most populous Arab nation. Its one of the very few nations that measures its history in thousands of years. Like in millenia past, almost the entire population of the country lives around the Nile Delta. The capital Cairo is a huge city of many millions. Egypt is the center geographically, culturally as well. Pop music, movies and literature spread from Egypt to the rest of the region. Politically and diplomatically it has often acted as a bigger brother to other Arab nations, especially under the rule of Nasser who promoted a pan-arabism.
Of late though, Egypt hasn't looked so bright. During the rule of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt has been stagnant, weak, and poor. People have been tired of it for much of these 30 years he ruled. Mubarak ensured he stayed in power though, through rigging elections, intimidating and jailing dissenters, and banning opposing political parties. Corruption was rampant, and a very young population had fewer and fewer jobs. With the uprising in Tunisia as inspiration, the young tech-savvy and the old alike took to the streets of Cairo and other cities on January 25th. Their rallying point was the now famous Tahrir (Liberation, Freedom) Square.
A strong police response followed. Using water cannons, thugs with steel bars, and even live ammunition they attacked the peaceful crowds without mercy. The headquarters of the ruling party were set alight. All of this was being broadcast live via al-Jazeera and other channels, Tahrir square being in view of TV stations and hotels frequented by journalists.
The police were routed by the crowds, and fled from the streets. The military was called in, and the internet was shut down in the entire country. It did not stop the demonstrations.
On February 11th, Mubarak finally resigned and fled Cairo.
After this SCAF (Security Council of the Armed Forces) took power and dissolved the exiting government, promising to hold elections within 6 months. Elections were eventually held, but it was a tumultuous time. Protests were frequent, demanding more rapid reforms and judicial action against members of the old regime. Clashes with the military and police were common, with around 40 protesters being killed in November of 2011. As this was going on, the only other significant political power in Egypt was the Muslim Brotherhood, the old and usually banned political party. Despite the Brotherhood being often at odds with SCAF, the two groups did spend some time working together as well. For example they combined to dismiss demands to give smaller political parties more time to organize themselves before the election. The Brotherhood was also almost totally absent during the protests, and typically did not come into direct conflict with the military as much as the secular protesters did. A controversial and frankly bizarre move saw the two leading candidates in the election barred from running for pretty spurious reasons.
In May 2012 the first free elections ever were held in Egypt, though like everything else that has happened there lately is was highly controversial. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi narrowly won the presidency, a post whose powers had yet to be defined by SCAF. Since then Morsi has gone about ruling in an aggressive seeming way, forcing some military officials into retirement and testing the extent of his powers. I am personally a bit suspicious of this, and I still strongly suspect that the military council holds the real power in Egypt, with Morsi being mostly a front-man who can be replaced via coup if he gets out of hand. While Egypt has been looking a bit more stable lately, I still consider it to be in a revolutionary state. Some big (or small) event could still cause mass protests of the sort that could topple the government again. Both the Muslim Brotherhood and SCAF will now be working together from preventing that from happening.
Mubarak has since been in court for his actions during the protests. He was found guilty of some charges, leading to a charge of life in prison, though we was cleared on a variety of charges relating to the crackdown he in fact ordered. In any case he is an old man and in very poor health, with some saying he is virtually dead as it is.
Of late though, Egypt hasn't looked so bright. During the rule of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt has been stagnant, weak, and poor. People have been tired of it for much of these 30 years he ruled. Mubarak ensured he stayed in power though, through rigging elections, intimidating and jailing dissenters, and banning opposing political parties. Corruption was rampant, and a very young population had fewer and fewer jobs. With the uprising in Tunisia as inspiration, the young tech-savvy and the old alike took to the streets of Cairo and other cities on January 25th. Their rallying point was the now famous Tahrir (Liberation, Freedom) Square.
A strong police response followed. Using water cannons, thugs with steel bars, and even live ammunition they attacked the peaceful crowds without mercy. The headquarters of the ruling party were set alight. All of this was being broadcast live via al-Jazeera and other channels, Tahrir square being in view of TV stations and hotels frequented by journalists.
The police were routed by the crowds, and fled from the streets. The military was called in, and the internet was shut down in the entire country. It did not stop the demonstrations.
On February 11th, Mubarak finally resigned and fled Cairo.
After this SCAF (Security Council of the Armed Forces) took power and dissolved the exiting government, promising to hold elections within 6 months. Elections were eventually held, but it was a tumultuous time. Protests were frequent, demanding more rapid reforms and judicial action against members of the old regime. Clashes with the military and police were common, with around 40 protesters being killed in November of 2011. As this was going on, the only other significant political power in Egypt was the Muslim Brotherhood, the old and usually banned political party. Despite the Brotherhood being often at odds with SCAF, the two groups did spend some time working together as well. For example they combined to dismiss demands to give smaller political parties more time to organize themselves before the election. The Brotherhood was also almost totally absent during the protests, and typically did not come into direct conflict with the military as much as the secular protesters did. A controversial and frankly bizarre move saw the two leading candidates in the election barred from running for pretty spurious reasons.
In May 2012 the first free elections ever were held in Egypt, though like everything else that has happened there lately is was highly controversial. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi narrowly won the presidency, a post whose powers had yet to be defined by SCAF. Since then Morsi has gone about ruling in an aggressive seeming way, forcing some military officials into retirement and testing the extent of his powers. I am personally a bit suspicious of this, and I still strongly suspect that the military council holds the real power in Egypt, with Morsi being mostly a front-man who can be replaced via coup if he gets out of hand. While Egypt has been looking a bit more stable lately, I still consider it to be in a revolutionary state. Some big (or small) event could still cause mass protests of the sort that could topple the government again. Both the Muslim Brotherhood and SCAF will now be working together from preventing that from happening.
Mubarak has since been in court for his actions during the protests. He was found guilty of some charges, leading to a charge of life in prison, though we was cleared on a variety of charges relating to the crackdown he in fact ordered. In any case he is an old man and in very poor health, with some saying he is virtually dead as it is.
Yemen
Protests in Yemen started early in 2011, like in most of the rest of the Arab world. Though Yemen immediately looked different. The country has been in particularly bad shape for some time. The government in the south has been fighting against Houthi rebels in the north of the country, and slightly more recently have been fighting islamist fighters mostly in the east. After a few months of protests active fighting started, and the president was injured in an explosion, and fled the country. In early 2012 there was an election, in which the only candidate was the former vice-president, who was already acting as president after Saleh fled. He won with 99.8% of the vote. Despite the elections, the violence has continued. The focus now is mostly against Islamic Fundamentalists in the east of the country. The US has been heavily present here, supplying the Yemeni government with the usual assortment of money, weapons, training and intelligence. The US military and CIA have also been conducting a variety of covert operations in the country including drone strikes and special forces operations. While ostensibly targeting "al-queda" affiliated groups, much of the violence has been directed towards traditional tribal rebels as well as revolutionary opponents of the regime. The level of violence in the country remains very high, and seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Libya
Libya wasn't really a revolution, it was a war. From the very start things went ugly. Protests started in February 2012, and were strongest in the eastern part of the country dominated by Benghazi, where Gaddaffi and his tribe were less powerful. These initial protests were immediately met with extreme violence by the regime. Soldiers fired into crowds with machine guns, and as the uprising continued, with mortars and apparently even airstrikes. The capital Tripoli was a warzone that Gadaffi regained control of, however protesters/rebels managed to seize several cities, with their base being in Benghazi. Gaddaffi sent his forces to the east, to crush the rebellion. The rest of the world became rapidly involved in the conflict, likely because Gaddaffi has few international allies, despite having been sold arms by the West in the last several years. So when Libyan forced seemed poised to re-claim Benghazi, a UN Security Council resolution was passed declaring a no-fly zone over the country, which might as well have been a declaration of war. This was politically led by France, Britain and Italy, and militarily organized mostly by the US via NATO. Gaddaffi's forces were broken almost over night as NATO aircraft took control of the skies and commenced airstrikes on Liyban army positions, military bases, and assorted targets in Tripoli itself. The rebels, now assisted by NATO and Qatar and other nations were able to move out of Benghazi, and eventually took Tripoli from Gaddaffi's home tribe. Wikipedia lists around 30 000 deaths coming from this conflict.
After the fighting died down, the country was left, and remains in, a state of uncertainty. The varied rebel groups haven't really disbanded, and tribal loyalties still largely trump a national identity. Ethnic militias, being now extremely well armed, hold most of the power, and seem to be in a sort of stalemate. The state of Libya is extremely weak right now, and will require more reform or some sort of dramatic shake-up, possibly involving violence, before any sort of long-term stability can take hold.
A recent attack on a US consulate in Benghazi resulted in the death of the ambassador there, with significant political fallout. Western-supported militia have since cleared out many radical islamic groups, however it is still unclear which groups are really in charge in Libya.
After the fighting died down, the country was left, and remains in, a state of uncertainty. The varied rebel groups haven't really disbanded, and tribal loyalties still largely trump a national identity. Ethnic militias, being now extremely well armed, hold most of the power, and seem to be in a sort of stalemate. The state of Libya is extremely weak right now, and will require more reform or some sort of dramatic shake-up, possibly involving violence, before any sort of long-term stability can take hold.
A recent attack on a US consulate in Benghazi resulted in the death of the ambassador there, with significant political fallout. Western-supported militia have since cleared out many radical islamic groups, however it is still unclear which groups are really in charge in Libya.
Bahrain
Poor little Bahrain, everyone has forgotten you. The tiny, virtual city-state on the Gulf has been so far the only uprising to have really failed. It started as the rest did, though had a slightly different flavour to it as the protests were largely by the repressed Shia majority against the Sunni minority rulers. Despite the sectarian bent, the protests were peaceful, and the demands of the protesters were fairly reasonable; calling for equal rights and an end to rule by the monarchy, not an outright revolution. The uprising was crushed quite brutally given its size. Its Shia protesters and strategic position meant other nations were worried it may fall into Iran's influence if the protesters gained power, and the Saudis fear an uprising of their own Shia population. The US also has its 5th Fleet stationed in Bahrain, which it is loathe to see threatened. As such there was no international outcry when Saudi Arabia sent in armored personal carriers to help shoot and round up protesters. Among the arrested are students, bloggers, and doctors who have given medical aid to wounded protesters. They face many years in jail for their "crimes". While protests are still occurring the country, it will take some large shift and likely some international assistance for them to succeed.
Resources:
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2012/11/syria-in-ruins/100402/ Photos of the Syrian civil war. NSFW: shows blood, and death.
[Tycho?] on
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Posts
It's always so foreign for us in the United States when it comes to matters happening over in the Middle East. We have so much space and an entire ocean between us and them. I can only imagine what the Europeans must feel, even the UK, not being that far away from so much bloodshed.
Critical Failures - Havenhold Campaign • August St. Cloud (Human Ranger)
Oh we're far away enough to be as removed from the fallout as the US. It's only really Turkey that has to worry.
Also is it just me or has there been a definite shift in the European attitude to the Syria situation? From the start the Europeans were united in a pretty firm "nope" on any action. Now the French are starting the same rumblings that led the charge into the Libyan conflict. William Hague (UK foreign secretary) has subtly shifted his dialogue as well from "nope nope nope" to a somewhat less firm "nope" perhaps signalling a slow slide toward some form of military support for the rebels.
Nice OP too.
I think they've wanted to get involved, but have been very reluctant to do so. Western nations have been providing cash and intelligence for some time, and whatever secret stuff we don't get to hear about. They've helped organize the rebels and keep up some good propaganda for them. Now that the rebels are theoretically united, its a bit more reasonable to show more overt support. I personally doubt the rebels are actually more unified than before.
Its funny though, because from my end (North America, though I read lots of European papers) it seems like support for the rebels is waning. More and more people are realizing that this isn't just peaceful activists getting murdered. There was a lot of that at the start, and innocents continue to die, but the rebels have been shown doing all sorts of terrible things, like suicide bombs, executing prisoners and working with jihadist groups. I think most western nations would like to be rid of Assad, but are worried that removing him will only cause more problems for them later.
Aha! I even wrote consulate first, but then did a google search with came up with embassy. Thanks for spotting that.
Sure, things are bad in regards to Gaza, but they are always bad. Its not like the situation couldn't have waited a couple of months in that regard. There has been no major provocation, just a slow escalation of missiles.
No, you're not. And if you look back, there's a fine tradition of wagging the dog there.
You get plenty of articles about the weapons used or the people killed. You even get a few article about if an invasion is even wise(a major development in US media), but no mention of the fact that there is a parliamentary election in 3 months and that the current government is facing oblivion.
Israelis seem especially aware of this, given that the conflict started less than a week after the JP published a terrible poll for Bibi and the person with the best chance of beating him announced that he would be headlining Labour. Of course, none of this matters because majorities in parliamentary countries are decided by what politicians want to hang out together rather than how the public votes. Unless Labour and its far left subsidiaries are able to get 51% by themselves (not happening), the Kadima/Likud coalition has a fair chance of continuing.
He was doing well up to the US election.
I think we both know how well our media reads polls.
I'd think Israel would have an easier time if so many Palestinians had other options for taking care of themselves, making it less appealing to be part of a militant faction. If one can keep his family alive with something that isn't likely to make one the epicenter of crater from an Israeli strike, well it becomes much harder for militant factions to find willing recruits. It also adds some political power on the Palestinian civilian side, where they'll demand that their elected leaders avoid doing things that will fuck up the economy.
Speaking of militants, particular Islamist ones, things in Syria might be getting more dicey.
It looks like even if the new coalition gets heavy international backing, radical Islamists won't be willing work towards the goal of a more democratic and tolerant post-Assad Syria.
My personal theory is that Israel is purposely making palestinians hate them, to instigate them to violence so they can go "See, this Palestinians just want to get rid of Israel" and use that as they're excuse to invade and claim the land for their own.
Basically, everything is going according to plan
Any sort of compromise or peace is pointless because it's a concession to actually giving up their own goals with no upside for them.
Maybe concentrate them all into camps for their own safety too
Much the same attitude exists on the Palestinian side. The two state solution is widely accepted, but when settlement expansion continues and Bibi continues to be a obstructionist dick, there is nearly zero faith put in Israel.
This is at the point where I posit that Israel just decided to blow up a car and decided a reason for it after the fact.
A three story house got completely razed by a bomb. The neighbours cited the residents names instantly to reporters, four children and four women (one 81 years old). 12 inside all dead.
No neighbour had ever heard of the Hamas member name cited as the reason for the airstrike.
You know, besides the rockets.
And I don't think the government is interested in not being attacked though. Both Israel and the foreign community know they won't be allowed to flatten everything and they certainly can't occupy the territory effectively. Weapons-wise, this is a setback for Hamas but organizationally it's causing them to militarize again and is strengthening their motivation.
I don't think this is just a blunt method of stopping the attacks and I don't think this is for the elections (although it'll help.) I think there's a lot more levels to this than we realize, and it involves Egypt or Iran. Unless you truly believe they'd "had enough", it just doesn't make sense on the surface.
But she's not meeting with anyone with Hamas so I dunno what the point is
Edit: My initial, certain uninformed opinion was that this escalates the conflict in a way guaranteeing shitloads more civilian deaths, makes any potential agreement harder, and will do little to actually stop Hamas.
It's a "we'll figure out the long term after we deal with the short term issue of getting shot at."
After this is over, both sides will agree to 95% of everything related to a peace plan but refuse to budge one fucking inch on the last 5%.
Basically, Anderson Cooper says he saw rockets being fired from Gaza, someone on twitter tells him that reporting on rockets from Gaza is biased, Cooper shows everyone that he is not to be fucked with.
The best part is that he went back into her tweet history to take her down a peg or twenty. Mark Twain's advice is as timely as ever, it seems.
At first glance, that first panel seriously looks like a guy about to penetrate someone in the butt.
With his penis.