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The Fiscal Cliff and Other Instances of the Government Kicking Itself In the Economic Nuts

ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
edited January 2013 in Debate and/or Discourse
So pretty soon we're going to be falling of the fiscal cliff and cartwheeling through the fog of political posturing and splatting on the jagged rocks of self-imposed doom and the guts of our economy will be strewn across the something something dooooooom. Here is a terrible and alarmist article that explains the whole mess.

Alternately, here is a description of the mess that will not make you stupider for having read it.

Discuss!

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ElJeffe on
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Posts

  • MalkorMalkor Registered User regular
    But the terrible article has graphs.

    14271f3c-c765-4e74-92b1-49d7612675f2.jpg
  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    Wait. Didn't they do this last year too? With extending the debt and losing credit and some people making a hubub over it? Or is this a slightly different, but related monster?

    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    From the Obamadminstration thread:
    The Obama Administration's opening offer seems like it's better than I expected, which is new for them. 400 B of cuts in Medicare to be determined... later, 1.6 T in tax increases, a new round of stimulus, UI extensions, and refinancing assistance.

    That is a good opening bid. "Here are some unspecified cuts to Medicare that we'll talk about later. Meanwhile, bend over."

    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
  • emnmnmeemnmnme Registered User regular
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

  • CogCog What'd you expect? Registered User regular
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

    Wait, isn't this class warfare?

    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    bowen wrote: »
    Wait. Didn't they do this last year too? With extending the debt and losing credit and some people making a hubub over it? Or is this a slightly different, but related monster?

    The fiscal cliff is the result of the agreement that they made during the debt ceiling debate. "We'll do this to force Congress to make a deal or all this bad stuff will happen automatically. And we'll force them to do it during an election year. There's no way this plan can fail!".

    It doesn't surprise me that some people think doing it again is the best idea ever.

    Tomanta on
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Admittedly, the terrible article shows the breakdown of tax increases by source and income quintile, which is interesting. As per our Obama-thread tangent yesterday on the AMT, I stand corrected on the enormous impact of the AMT on those earning less than $40k. They will see their taxes go up by an average of almost one dollar per month. Horror!

    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
  • CogCog What'd you expect? Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Admittedly, the terrible article shows the breakdown of tax increases by source and income quintile, which is interesting. As per our Obama-thread tangent yesterday on the AMT, I stand corrected on the enormous impact of the AMT on those earning less than $40k. They will see their taxes go up by an average of almost one dollar per month. Horror!
    :oops:

  • FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD interior crocodile alligator ⇔ ǝɹʇɐǝɥʇ ǝᴉʌoɯ ʇǝloɹʌǝɥɔ ɐ ǝʌᴉɹp ᴉRegistered User regular
    It's preposterous that we have a debt limit in the first place.

    It's stupid that we have to deal with this on a completely artificial timeline.

    Payroll taxes are dumb and regressive.

    Fuck this gay earth.

    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.

    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    bowen wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

    Wait, isn't this class warfare?

    I think Al Franken summed up class warfare very well.
    “Any time that a liberal points out that the wealthy are disproportionately benefiting from Bush’s tax policies, Republicans shout, “class warfare!”

    In her book A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous Fourteenth Century, Barbara Tuchman writes about a peasant revolt in 1358 that began in the village of St. Leu and spread throughout the Oise Valley. At one estate, the serfs sacked the manor house, killed the knight, and roasted him on a spit in front of his wife and kids. Then, after ten or twelve peasants violated the lady, with the children still watching, they forced her to eat the roasted flesh of her dead husband and then killed her.

    That is class warfare.

    Arguing over the optimum marginal tax rate for the top one percent is not.”

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited November 2012
    What would be the economic upshot of killing the payroll tax and rolling it into the income tax, versus keeping the payroll tax and removing the cap?

    Like, has anyone made a serious proposal to do this?

    ElJeffe on
    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    edited November 2012
    Feral wrote: »
    It's preposterous that we have a debt limit in the first place.

    It's stupid that we have to deal with this on a completely artificial timeline.

    Payroll taxes are dumb and regressive.

    Fuck this gay earth.

    Note it only became a problem once Obama wanted to raise it. Also note the deficit only became a REALLY BIG problem once Obama took office. Coincidence?!

    Roz on
  • TenekTenek Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    What would be the economic upshot of killing the payroll tax and rolling it into the income tax, versus keeping the payroll tax and removing the cap?

    Like, has anyone made a serious proposal to do this?

    I guess you'd have it being affected by deductions, or something like that. Also you could make it more progressive. There would be a weird interface of the employer/employee contributions, though - unless you left the employer portion as-is you would need to capture that as part of the gross income, and then tax it away.

  • Pi-r8Pi-r8 Registered User regular
    I a a
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    What would be the economic upshot of killing the payroll tax and rolling it into the income tax, versus keeping the payroll tax and removing the cap?

    Like, has anyone made a serious proposal to do this?

    It would make it politically easier to cut social security benefits, since it would no longer be a self-funded program.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    The AARP would bring out the knives if you touch the dedicated funding streams for either SS or Medicare. Rolling it into the general tax would make them livid.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    What would be the economic upshot of killing the payroll tax and rolling it into the income tax, versus keeping the payroll tax and removing the cap?

    Like, has anyone made a serious proposal to do this?

    Other than small business owners who don't understand (or mislead) about how employer contributions work when you are your own employer, I didn't think anyone really has a problem with payroll taxes.

    Sure, they are regressive and the cap should be removed, but overall the payroll tax -> SS / Medicare system seems to be one of the best programs / systems out there.

  • PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Aren't those cuts to Medicare simply the savings from ACA that they're going to roll into a fund to close the donut hole?

    Lh96QHG.png
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?

    Taxes would go up, so no, they do not.

    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?

    The cliff was just supposed to be another opportunity to force the Democrats to ransom the American economy. Nobody was seriously considering shooting the hostage.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD interior crocodile alligator ⇔ ǝɹʇɐǝɥʇ ǝᴉʌoɯ ʇǝloɹʌǝɥɔ ɐ ǝʌᴉɹp ᴉRegistered User regular
    edited November 2012
    I should have clarified what I meant.

    The curve and cap for our payroll taxes are dumb.

    I don't have a problem with payroll taxes in abstract.

    Feral on
    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.

    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Payroll and Medicare taxes are pretty much built the way they are so Republicans can't ruin those programs

  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?
    Hence the reason a disproportionate amount of the automatic cuts are to DOD. If it was all for other stuff, the Teapers wouldn't even come to the table.

  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?

    Republicans are for small government when they are out of power. They are for incredibly draconian and invasive government when they are in power.

    So far as I can tell.

  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?

    Taxes would go up on job creators, so no, they do not.

    Fixed that for you.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    Question about terminology used amidst all this: When a claim like "88% of tax payers would be paying more" is made, does that make any distinction for people who file for taxes and get a return rather than paying? Or are those people included in the group of tax payer?

  • Sir LandsharkSir Landshark resting shark face Registered User regular
    Getting a return just means you overpaid your taxes throughout the year. The term taxpayer is usually loosely used to describe those people who paid some amount of income tax that year

    Please consider the environment before printing this post.
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    Can't be what you propose since return/owe is just a function of your withholding.

    May be those who don't end up paying any taxes at all....but payroll taxes are paid by even the stupid 47% number they toss around.

    May just mean "People who get a fucking pay check."

    DevoutlyApathetic on
    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • CogCog What'd you expect? Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    Roz wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Shouldn't Republicans support the fiscal cliff? Small government and all right?

    Taxes would go up on job creators, so no, they do not.

    Fixed that for you.

    Which is still ignoring the CRS report that the top marginal tax rates affect economic growth about as much as the color of my stool. Their opposition to the cliff - at least the tax cut portion - is ideological and only in a symbolic fashion.

    Cog on
  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    I just wanted to double check how much truth there is to claims that we're all going to be affected. Now it's just a matter of amount. From what the boring, sane article says, sounds like people like me aren't exactly going to have our paychecks gutted of its substance. I'm sure that's the narrative one particular party in our government is singing to though.
    zagdrob wrote: »
    bowen wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

    Wait, isn't this class warfare?

    I think Al Franken summed up class warfare very well.
    “Any time that a liberal points out that the wealthy are disproportionately benefiting from Bush’s tax policies, Republicans shout, “class warfare!”

    In her book A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous Fourteenth Century, Barbara Tuchman writes about a peasant revolt in 1358 that began in the village of St. Leu and spread throughout the Oise Valley. At one estate, the serfs sacked the manor house, killed the knight, and roasted him on a spit in front of his wife and kids. Then, after ten or twelve peasants violated the lady, with the children still watching, they forced her to eat the roasted flesh of her dead husband and then killed her.

    That is class warfare.

    Arguing over the optimum marginal tax rate for the top one percent is not.”

    I was worried that Al Franken lost his charm when becoming a senator, since he remarkably took to the job seriously. :^:

  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    zagdrob wrote: »
    bowen wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

    Wait, isn't this class warfare?

    I think Al Franken summed up class warfare very well.
    “Any time that a liberal points out that the wealthy are disproportionately benefiting from Bush’s tax policies, Republicans shout, “class warfare!”

    In her book A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous Fourteenth Century, Barbara Tuchman writes about a peasant revolt in 1358 that began in the village of St. Leu and spread throughout the Oise Valley. At one estate, the serfs sacked the manor house, killed the knight, and roasted him on a spit in front of his wife and kids. Then, after ten or twelve peasants violated the lady, with the children still watching, they forced her to eat the roasted flesh of her dead husband and then killed her.

    That is class warfare.

    Arguing over the optimum marginal tax rate for the top one percent is not.”

    Obama should have opened these negotiations with what seasonings to use on the rich when we have subsidized gangs of socialists storm their manors and roast them as food for welfare queens

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Feral wrote: »
    It's preposterous that we have a debt limit in the first place.

    It's stupid that we have to deal with this on a completely artificial timeline.

    Payroll taxes are dumb and regressive.

    Fuck this gay earth.

    I'm continually amazed you crazy motherfuckers ended up at the top of a global hegemony.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Feral wrote: »
    It's preposterous that we have a debt limit in the first place.

    It's stupid that we have to deal with this on a completely artificial timeline.

    Payroll taxes are dumb and regressive.

    Fuck this gay earth.

    I'm continually amazed you crazy motherfuckers ended up at the top of a global hegemony.

    Being the only industrial power to emerge from WWII unscathed'll do that to ya.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    uh, I mean jesus freedom eagle

    Lh96QHG.png
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    I just wanted to double check how much truth there is to claims that we're all going to be affected. Now it's just a matter of amount. From what the boring, sane article says, sounds like people like me aren't exactly going to have our paychecks gutted of its substance. I'm sure that's the narrative one particular party in our government is singing to though.
    zagdrob wrote: »
    bowen wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

    Wait, isn't this class warfare?

    I think Al Franken summed up class warfare very well.
    “Any time that a liberal points out that the wealthy are disproportionately benefiting from Bush’s tax policies, Republicans shout, “class warfare!”

    In her book A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous Fourteenth Century, Barbara Tuchman writes about a peasant revolt in 1358 that began in the village of St. Leu and spread throughout the Oise Valley. At one estate, the serfs sacked the manor house, killed the knight, and roasted him on a spit in front of his wife and kids. Then, after ten or twelve peasants violated the lady, with the children still watching, they forced her to eat the roasted flesh of her dead husband and then killed her.

    That is class warfare.

    Arguing over the optimum marginal tax rate for the top one percent is not.”

    I was worried that Al Franken lost his charm when becoming a senator, since he remarkably took to the job seriously. :^:

    I think that was pre-Senate career. Sounds like it's from Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them.

    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    We also came into the industrial revolution with a fuckload of oil, allowing us to establish global dominance and world leadership (along with our allies) in the business of either extracting oil or toppling or buying governments to get black gold

    Honestly that is probably more important, half of America could have been leveled in WW2 and we still would have had a better time recovering than Europe because of a combination of Texas oil and the massive merchant and military fleet after the war to allow for sticking America's mighty freedom loving cock into any resource rich orifice on the planet, willing or otherwise

    override367 on
  • Jubal77Jubal77 Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    America once worked for and built our own shit. And paid our bills.

    Jubal77 on
  • TL DRTL DR Not at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    zagdrob wrote: »
    bowen wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    emnmnme wrote: »
    Raise taxes, cut spending.

    Why do you hate small business?

    Wait, isn't this class warfare?

    I think Al Franken summed up class warfare very well.
    “Any time that a liberal points out that the wealthy are disproportionately benefiting from Bush’s tax policies, Republicans shout, “class warfare!”

    In her book A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous Fourteenth Century, Barbara Tuchman writes about a peasant revolt in 1358 that began in the village of St. Leu and spread throughout the Oise Valley. At one estate, the serfs sacked the manor house, killed the knight, and roasted him on a spit in front of his wife and kids. Then, after ten or twelve peasants violated the lady, with the children still watching, they forced her to eat the roasted flesh of her dead husband and then killed her.

    That is class warfare.

    Arguing over the optimum marginal tax rate for the top one percent is not.”

    I was worried that Al Franken lost his charm when becoming a senator, since he remarkably took to the job seriously. :^:

    That quote is from his 2003 book "Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right"

    Luckily, he has not lost his charm
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0-FYyuvrRk

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    I just wanted to double check how much truth there is to claims that we're all going to be affected. Now it's just a matter of amount. From what the boring, sane article says, sounds like people like me aren't exactly going to have our paychecks gutted of its substance. I'm sure that's the narrative one particular party in our government is singing to though.

    Pretty much everyone will see their take-home pay go down starting January 1, though it will be loosely in proportion to how much you make. People who make little money will see their paychecks drop by a small amount. People who make lots of money will see their paychecks drop by a larger amount. Few people will see their take-home drop by such a large margin that it will dramatically affect them.

    Basically, remember what tax rates were like in the 90s? That is what they'll be like, discounting the AMT stuff. It's not really the end-result of the tax rates that are troublesome so much as the abrupt-ish shift, just like dropping from 60mph to 55mph isn't a huge deal unless you do it in a half-second, then there's a bit of a bump.

    Nevertheless, Wall Street will lose their shit, because they lose their shit over every goddamn thing. That's the bigger problem here, as I see it, if the Fiscal Cliff Slope happens - Wall Street flipping out could cause some problems.

    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
This discussion has been closed.