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Election Day 2014: Apparently Now a Thread For Arguing with Fox News Talking Points
enlightenedbum
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
So hey it's Election Day! Vote closing times map:
The Situation!
This is a midterm election to elect the final Congress of the Obama Presidency. The House, due to shenanigans, is going to stay in the hands of the Republican Party. Speaker Boehner will continue his adventures with counting to 218 and probably fail miserably some more. On the national level, the action is in the Senate. Currently there are 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. The GOP needs to get a net gain of +6 to take the Senate.
Currently Nate Silver has the GOP as 3:1 favorites to take control.
Sam Wang has it closer to 2:1.
Regardless, the situation is not ideal for Democrats. They're sure to lose seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. They will probably lose in Arkansas. There are close races for Democratic seats in New Hampshire (D lead), Alaska (???), Iowa (R lead), Colorado (R lead), and North Carolina (D lead). The only pickup opportunities seem to be in Georgia (tied/small R lead) and Kansas (small I lead, who Orman caucuses with is a mystery). Georgia requires the winner to get 50% and there's a third party polling around 5%, which means it could go to a run off. Louisiana has a three way election which will almost certainly feature a runoff between Sen. Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy.
In terms of Governors, there seems to be a large amount of anti-incumbent feeling nationally. Democrats are struggling in some New England states (Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire maybe it's closed late) while some of the Republicans who took office in 2010 are in tight races of their own (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin) or are in deep trouble in deep red states (Kansas). Swing states, are swingy as you'd expect, with the highest profile of those being the race in Florida, which is approximately tied (surprise!) with a slight Crist lead, if anything. Politicians of both parties are deeply unpopular. The GOP is disliked the most, followed by the President, and then the Democratic Party, but all of them are underwater. This could make turnout somewhat unpredictable.
The Democrats' hopes are mainly in their get out the vote operation getting sporadic voters to the polls. There are signs in early voting in states like North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado that could indicate the polls are too Republican friendly by a couple points. If that manifests itself and for example Jean Shaheen is called the winner early on, the Dems could do better than expected. If, on the other hand, Scott Brown wins at all, it could be a very strong night for the Republicans.
Meanwhile, in the states, state legislatures are up for re-election. John Oliver has things to say about that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIMgfBZrrZ8
On the ballot measure front, there don't seem to be many of the usual highly controversial ones this year. I don't think there's a gay marriage ballot measure anywhere, for example. Oregon could join Washington and Colorado to legalize pot. Personhood amendments are on the ballot in various places and expected to fail as usual. Some states will be raising their minimum wages, which is good.
Resources
538 and PEC are linked above. News wise, the thread itself is probably your best bet. If you simply must have a TV on, I'd recommend PBS. MSNBC is the least obnoxious of the cable networks as far as I'm concerned, some (hi @spool32 ) would disagree. Website wise, pretty much any news operation will have links to things. For local stuff, go to your state's Secretary of State office website.
@So It Goes would like me to remind everyone that there's an IRC chat here: http://www.slashnet.org/webclient/ddelectionnight
If you want to chat about the election live with people go join her there tomorrow night.
There's an I Voted sticker for your avatar. You can find lots of others, obviously.
What this here thread is for:
1) Discussing numbers (polls, exits, remaining vote counts, results, etc)
2) Discussing your voting experience (long lines? quick? were you questioned by assholes from True the Vote?)
3) Cajoling other poster into voting
4) Complaining about how stupid Wolf Blitzer is
5) What the results (when we have them) mean for the future of the country in a broad sense. Try to keep it on first order effects though. Things such as the ability (or lack thereof) to appoint judges is OK. A secondary effect like "which will help enshrine Citizens United" probably belongs in the SCOTUS thread.
6) Similar matters directly related to the election as an election.
What this thread is NOT for:
1) Detailed policy preferences discussions. You can say why you're voting for a candidate, but try to limit further debate on those particular issues. If you feel the discussion merits it, please go ahead and make a new thread. The mods won't hurt you!
2) Partisan name calling. We're almost all Democrats here. Try to play nice. If you feel the only response you can make is to demean the Republicans or the Republican posters, just don't post.
3) Generally things which are not directly related to the election. This thread is inevitably chatty to some extent, so don't worry too much about that, but do try to keep things limited to politics and not go too far off on tangents.
VOTE, Y'ALL
(for Democrats)
The Situation!
This is a midterm election to elect the final Congress of the Obama Presidency. The House, due to shenanigans, is going to stay in the hands of the Republican Party. Speaker Boehner will continue his adventures with counting to 218 and probably fail miserably some more. On the national level, the action is in the Senate. Currently there are 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. The GOP needs to get a net gain of +6 to take the Senate.
Currently Nate Silver has the GOP as 3:1 favorites to take control.
Sam Wang has it closer to 2:1.
Regardless, the situation is not ideal for Democrats. They're sure to lose seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. They will probably lose in Arkansas. There are close races for Democratic seats in New Hampshire (D lead), Alaska (???), Iowa (R lead), Colorado (R lead), and North Carolina (D lead). The only pickup opportunities seem to be in Georgia (tied/small R lead) and Kansas (small I lead, who Orman caucuses with is a mystery). Georgia requires the winner to get 50% and there's a third party polling around 5%, which means it could go to a run off. Louisiana has a three way election which will almost certainly feature a runoff between Sen. Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy.
In terms of Governors, there seems to be a large amount of anti-incumbent feeling nationally. Democrats are struggling in some New England states (Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire maybe it's closed late) while some of the Republicans who took office in 2010 are in tight races of their own (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin) or are in deep trouble in deep red states (Kansas). Swing states, are swingy as you'd expect, with the highest profile of those being the race in Florida, which is approximately tied (surprise!) with a slight Crist lead, if anything. Politicians of both parties are deeply unpopular. The GOP is disliked the most, followed by the President, and then the Democratic Party, but all of them are underwater. This could make turnout somewhat unpredictable.
The Democrats' hopes are mainly in their get out the vote operation getting sporadic voters to the polls. There are signs in early voting in states like North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado that could indicate the polls are too Republican friendly by a couple points. If that manifests itself and for example Jean Shaheen is called the winner early on, the Dems could do better than expected. If, on the other hand, Scott Brown wins at all, it could be a very strong night for the Republicans.
Meanwhile, in the states, state legislatures are up for re-election. John Oliver has things to say about that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIMgfBZrrZ8On the ballot measure front, there don't seem to be many of the usual highly controversial ones this year. I don't think there's a gay marriage ballot measure anywhere, for example. Oregon could join Washington and Colorado to legalize pot. Personhood amendments are on the ballot in various places and expected to fail as usual. Some states will be raising their minimum wages, which is good.
Resources
538 and PEC are linked above. News wise, the thread itself is probably your best bet. If you simply must have a TV on, I'd recommend PBS. MSNBC is the least obnoxious of the cable networks as far as I'm concerned, some (hi @spool32 ) would disagree. Website wise, pretty much any news operation will have links to things. For local stuff, go to your state's Secretary of State office website.
@So It Goes would like me to remind everyone that there's an IRC chat here: http://www.slashnet.org/webclient/ddelectionnight
If you want to chat about the election live with people go join her there tomorrow night.
There's an I Voted sticker for your avatar. You can find lots of others, obviously.
What this here thread is for:
1) Discussing numbers (polls, exits, remaining vote counts, results, etc)
2) Discussing your voting experience (long lines? quick? were you questioned by assholes from True the Vote?)
3) Cajoling other poster into voting
4) Complaining about how stupid Wolf Blitzer is
5) What the results (when we have them) mean for the future of the country in a broad sense. Try to keep it on first order effects though. Things such as the ability (or lack thereof) to appoint judges is OK. A secondary effect like "which will help enshrine Citizens United" probably belongs in the SCOTUS thread.
6) Similar matters directly related to the election as an election.
What this thread is NOT for:
1) Detailed policy preferences discussions. You can say why you're voting for a candidate, but try to limit further debate on those particular issues. If you feel the discussion merits it, please go ahead and make a new thread. The mods won't hurt you!
2) Partisan name calling. We're almost all Democrats here. Try to play nice. If you feel the only response you can make is to demean the Republicans or the Republican posters, just don't post.
3) Generally things which are not directly related to the election. This thread is inevitably chatty to some extent, so don't worry too much about that, but do try to keep things limited to politics and not go too far off on tangents.
VOTE, Y'ALL
(for Democrats)
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
enlightenedbum on
+7
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
I'll have to decide tomorrow evening when I go to the polls (I'm still bitter they cut night and weekend early voting here. It's like they hate people who have to work).
Of course, neither of my Senators are up for reelection, Shasta County is solid red like the rest of Baja Oregon so the House race won't be close, and all of the city stuff I don't get to vote on because I live just outside the city.
Our local paper decided not to make a House endorsement, though, which was pretty amusing. Something about how the challenger is too far from the district ideologically, but the incumbent voted to shut down the government.
I do rather enjoy the irony that Illinois has some of the best early voting setup of the several States. Not so much the impetus that made that the case; but as Studs would say, we are not the most corrupt State, we are the most theatrically corrupt State.
Vote early and often!
The problem isn't that we keep on throwing our governors in jail. The problem is that everyone else DOESN'T.
In fact, he might be one of the few politicians that I'm actually outright happy to vote for a second term tomorrow.
Wii: 4521 1146 5179 1333 Pearl: 3394 4642 8367 HG: 1849 3913 3132
Well that's pretty lame, but it's bit like were really gonna be in for a shocker dem takeover
PNG might not be the best format since the text becomes harder to read than pure bitmap or pdf, but maybe someone will want to throw their own map/polling location in there. Or steal my idea to spread the word. I don't specifically care who people vote for, but hope they make some semblance of an informed decision.
Tangentially, the WI voter information websites have turned into absolute dung heaps in the last 2 years.
It makes the vending machine sound. :bigfrown:
Democrats Abroad and Vote from Abroad make it super ridiculously easy, you guys.
It'll all be over for the most part around my lunch time tomorrow. Godspeed, my friends.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Uh, a few weeks ago actually.
I won't get either, but that's what I think I need.
chair to Creation and then suplex the Void.
Vote for Howie!
He's only like half crazy.
Cuomo has it locked up but I'm not voting for him simply because I want his reelection to be as unimpressive as possible to damage his future political career.
Alternatively if you have to vote for Cuomo do it on the Working Families line. He rather screwed the hell out of that party. I've heard rumblings that they may drop below the threshold for ballot inclusion.
No real line minutes after the polling place opens, but if Gillespie even leads at any point I'll be pretty surprised.
Right there with you for Virginia. First time riding my bike to the polling station too. Do whatever it takes to vote!
Straight Dem ticket in the races where the Dems were running someone, refrained from picking in the positions where only an R was running (no write-ins on the electronic system, apparently), and voted to retain the IN SC Justices that were asked about (mostly because screw voters+judiciary). Used 1 of my 3 picks for school-board to pick the least-horrible person.
Line wasn't bad at all. I think I waited 15 min at around 6:30-ish. Wife's gonna go over around 10:30 I believe.
Yay, democracy! Booooo, my state and county.
[ed] And that poll-time map. Guh. Welcome to Indiana: fuck you if your bosses aren't flexible.
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
Predictions!
Republican sweep of the cabinet, with Scott barely hanging on.
Amendment 1 passes
Amendment 2 gets over 50% but doesn't clear the 60% hurdle for passage
Amednment 3 fails because I don't think people really know about it and we usually vote stuff down, but it might pass based soley on Republican turnout
Local elections depend on where you live, I'm expecting none of my preferred candidates to win though : /
Also, voted a straight D ticket in Georgia this morning. Under no illusions that anyone I voted for will win, though. Hopefully some of them will be less than double-digits, unlike 2010.
Voted in Sully district, same thing. No line, only 4 items to vote on total. Was in and our super quick. Such a massive change from 2 years ago when the lines were 2+ hours long. Turnout doesn't look great, but Connelly/Warner are going to win pretty much no matter what, so not a big deal.
I voted no on the spouse issue. How did you guys vote about issuing bonds to pay for new highway funds?
Not even 9 and I'm already seeing some "It's all the same, everyone is corrupt" posts.
Quoting this because I edited in the @ later.
They seem more "in a red state, winner already decided".
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
Sorry, didn't mean here. I meant in my social media circles.
Apathy and cynysm is the worst.
After walking a whole block down the wrong street, in the dark, through the rain.
UR WELCOME AMERICA.
They're pretty liberal this year.
I sat through a long line on election day once, a few years ago. Never again.
Was the 201st person according to the ballot machine, with a line of about fifteen ahead of me this morning. No harassment, and most of the people outside stopped trying to give me voter guides when I told them I had already filled out a sample ballot.
I'm glad North Carolina got rid of straight ticket voting, but it was certainly a chore to find real information on some of the minor races (Soil & Conservation?). I couldn't decide whether to vote for unopposed candidates until the very last minute, but went ahead and gave them a vote anyway. The most difficult vote was between an obvious incumbent for a major position that I despise, and their challenger who couldn't even bother to put up a website listing their views and had zero previous political experience. I voted for the challenger anyway, but I considered not voting in that race at all. Was surprisingly happy with the school board options.