Why do you say that? I'm sure I agree with you, I just want to know why you say that she has no chance. Is it because of MacKay family owning that seat for 40 years? Or is it because people there just don't like goddamn dirty environmentalists?
Pretty much. Peter MacKay's father held the riding for a long time, Peter's been in for like 10 years now. He's popular enough that he'll hold it for as long as he wants. This area has a fairly large lefty movement, but not large enough to matter. Most people seem to like MacKay, but not like Harper, and don't understand that voting for MacKay is voting for Harper.
I was looking at the 2006 election results a little while ago. MacKay won with around 17 000 votes. The NDP candidate had around 14 000 and the Liberal had 10 000. The Green candidate had like 600. If Dion thinks that not running a Liberal here will give May the seat he's out of his mind. There's a better chance that he just handed the riding to the NDP, which I would find hilarious. This clash of the titans thing, Peter MacKay, long running incumbent, Minister of Foreign Affairs, the local son, versus a Federal party leader who has the support of the Liberals, then they both lose to someone else.
It's this kind of moronic behavior that keeps me from voting Green or Liberal. I mean, god, May had a decent running in the last election, so should she build on that momentum there? Of course not! Let's go to the riding that's been blue for, uh, ever, and run against one of the most popular Conservatives in the country, brilliant! I'd love to be able to vote for the Green party and not feel I wasn't voting for a bunch of idiots, but it's stunts like this that turn me off in a big hurry.
Looking at these numbers, i'm pretty sure that the Liberals don't think that would give them the seat, either. The hope is the NDP would pick up enough of the liberal vote to get rid of MacKay, but they can't publicly work that out with the NDP.
The problem the NDP has is effectively keeping their potential vote on election day. For the past number of elections, the NDP was looking as if they were going to get 30-40 seats, and taking away from both Grit and Tory incumbents. But it failed to materialize - just as it always has (excepting Ed Broadbent's amazing run in the 80's), and will most likely always will. The Liberals are very effective at convincing 'soft' NDP voters to vote strategically for them, to stop the Tories from winning in their respective riding - something that stupid people seem to do and vote for the Liberal candidates who have no chance of winning and split the vote that way. Which is what happened in my own riding in the last two elections. Our current Tory MP, Randy Kamp, won by only a thousand votes in the past two elections, and that was only because the parachuted Liberal candidate (hilariously, they couldn't find a local member of the Liberal party to run) garnered enough votes to cost the NDP candidate the riding.
It's the same news just about everywhere else that it was a two-way contest between the NDP and the Tories, something that is quite common in BC and in the Maritimes. The reason why I believe the Greens will have more success than the NDP when it comes to vote poaching is that they are able to draw on all three major parties, not just the Liberals (in the case of the NDP). Indeed, if you look at riding-by-riding results from the last General Election, you'll see that there were six ridings in Canada that the GPC/PVC received over 10% of the vote, and of those six, one was in Ontario, one in B.C. (interestingly, a rural riding, the name of which escapes me at the moment), and FOUR in Alberta alone. One of which was in Stephen Harper's own riding in Calgary. Regardless of what the national media tell you, there is definitely a possibility that the next major western party to rear it's head will be the Green Party - which is certainly plausible, what with all the opposition to the Tar Sands and that.
The problem the NDP has is effectively keeping their potential vote on election day. For the past number of elections, the NDP was looking as if they were going to get 30-40 seats, and taking away from both Grit and Tory incumbents. But it failed to materialize - just as it always has (excepting Ed Broadbent's amazing run in the 80's), and will most likely always will. The Liberals are very effective at convincing 'soft' NDP voters to vote strategically for them, to stop the Tories from winning in their respective riding - something that stupid people seem to do and vote for the Liberal candidates who have no chance of winning and split the vote that way.
Those idiots at the Green Party aren't exactly helping, either.
Man, fuck those guys. Their policies are shitty and their candidates are lame. They have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning a seat, and all they do is split the left-wing vote. If you want to help the environment, vote for the NDP.
Man I'm was so close to voting NDP last election...I dunno though there's something about them that just scares me a bit. I wish there was a party that was like the Liberal party except...not the Liberal party...;-). Conservatives are too right leaning at the moment, NDP still seems like an activist party, Liberals are douches...I'll probably take the NDP plunge next go 'round though at this rate.
Man I'm was so close to voting NDP last election...I dunno though there's something about them that just scares me a bit. I wish there was a party that was like the Liberal party except...not the Liberal party...;-). Conservatives are too right leaning at the moment, NDP still seems like an activist party, Liberals are douches...I'll probably take the NDP plunge next go 'round though at this rate.
I said the exact same thing about the Liberals during the last election. People wanted to punish the liberals for their corruption, but didn't want to vote conservative or NDP. A new party with a similar platform could do well, but all it would end up doing would be splitting the vote.
Not that I'd vote for a liberal clone party any more than the liberal party itself.
I still have half a mind that part of this deal includes May not bashing Dion for his lack of a record while he was the federal environment minister.
As for winning over orange and green voters to the Liberals with a green message, I think there would have to be a concern with pushing blue leaning Liberals to vote Conservative. Telling a constituency office they're not allowed to pick a candidate will rightly piss off a lot of loyal party workers, which is even worse than having the party brass drop in a candidate. While the Liberals do have quite a bit of decent policy on paper, they're doing a horrible job of convincing the public that they've learned their lesson.
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Looking at these numbers, i'm pretty sure that the Liberals don't think that would give them the seat, either. The hope is the NDP would pick up enough of the liberal vote to get rid of MacKay, but they can't publicly work that out with the NDP.
It's the same news just about everywhere else that it was a two-way contest between the NDP and the Tories, something that is quite common in BC and in the Maritimes. The reason why I believe the Greens will have more success than the NDP when it comes to vote poaching is that they are able to draw on all three major parties, not just the Liberals (in the case of the NDP). Indeed, if you look at riding-by-riding results from the last General Election, you'll see that there were six ridings in Canada that the GPC/PVC received over 10% of the vote, and of those six, one was in Ontario, one in B.C. (interestingly, a rural riding, the name of which escapes me at the moment), and FOUR in Alberta alone. One of which was in Stephen Harper's own riding in Calgary. Regardless of what the national media tell you, there is definitely a possibility that the next major western party to rear it's head will be the Green Party - which is certainly plausible, what with all the opposition to the Tar Sands and that.
Man, fuck those guys. Their policies are shitty and their candidates are lame. They have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning a seat, and all they do is split the left-wing vote. If you want to help the environment, vote for the NDP.
I said the exact same thing about the Liberals during the last election. People wanted to punish the liberals for their corruption, but didn't want to vote conservative or NDP. A new party with a similar platform could do well, but all it would end up doing would be splitting the vote.
Not that I'd vote for a liberal clone party any more than the liberal party itself.
As for winning over orange and green voters to the Liberals with a green message, I think there would have to be a concern with pushing blue leaning Liberals to vote Conservative. Telling a constituency office they're not allowed to pick a candidate will rightly piss off a lot of loyal party workers, which is even worse than having the party brass drop in a candidate. While the Liberals do have quite a bit of decent policy on paper, they're doing a horrible job of convincing the public that they've learned their lesson.
If you ever need to talk to someone, feel free to message me. Yes, that includes you.