But now, according to the Wall Street Journal, it seems there may be a Plan B after all, and it is not one that leads to the negotiating table.
Washington, it is claimed, is ready to provide opposition forces with much more sophisticated weapons, in order to strengthen their hand against President Assad's troops.
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Captain Marcusnow arrives the hour of actionRegistered Userregular
I found this on the IMN, though I'm not sure how accurate it is. Looks like they were trying to set up their own legal system in the north based on Sharia and funded by Iran.
Turkey (or I think rather, specifically Erdogan) seems intent on making this a big issue right now. The initial request pissed alot of people in Europe off and they responded as anyone with half a brain would expect (mocking him even more) and now Erdogan's doubling down on the issue it seems.
Yeah, that's my read on it too. I don't know what the hell he's thinking, honestly. Cracking down on dissent in your own country has its perils, but trying to silence critics in European countries is futile and can only do damage. Are some European satirists really worth causing international incidents and storms of negative media coverage over? (edit - I mean, no one would have even heard of this shit if Erdogan didn't start flipping out about it)
The Erdogan government just doesn't seem like a rational actor at times.
I don't find it that surprising honestly. It's been said here before but Erdogan seems to me like a thin-skinned bully. He's trying to use the threat of the refugee situation to strongarm Europe as a whole into not making fun of him. His government is very much a strongman-style setup based around his own person and what he wants imo.
Yet another reason to hope that Trump doesn't get anywhere near the presidency. The two of them together would be horrifying.
When you're the President of the United States of America, you will get blood on your hands.
When you're the most powerful person on the planet, that's just going to happen, either through action or inaction.
I really don't envy Obama for the choices he has to make.
It's not like he would even have to. Half the countries in that region have our AA missiles. One of them could decide to be a little freer with the arms and the results would be the same.
When you're the President of the United States of America, you will get blood on your hands.
When you're the most powerful person on the planet, that's just going to happen, either through action or inaction.
I really don't envy Obama for the choices he has to make.
Yes, but there are worse choices and better choices. If measured by blood, sending bulk MANPADS into Syria is in the "worse" category, IMO. I was really starting to think the administration had learned its lessons after the last five catastrophic years, but perhaps not.
When you're the President of the United States of America, you will get blood on your hands.
When you're the most powerful person on the planet, that's just going to happen, either through action or inaction.
I really don't envy Obama for the choices he has to make.
Yes, but there are worse choices and better choices. If measured by blood, sending bulk MANPADS into Syria is in the "worse" category, IMO. I was really starting to think the administration had learned its lessons after the last five catastrophic years, but perhaps not.
Don't the Syrian rebels already have MANPADS? They were shooting down Syrian jets last month.
When you're the President of the United States of America, you will get blood on your hands.
When you're the most powerful person on the planet, that's just going to happen, either through action or inaction.
I really don't envy Obama for the choices he has to make.
Yes, but there are worse choices and better choices. If measured by blood, sending bulk MANPADS into Syria is in the "worse" category, IMO. I was really starting to think the administration had learned its lessons after the last five catastrophic years, but perhaps not.
Don't the Syrian rebels already have MANPADS? They were shooting down Syrian jets last month.
They've acquired some through looting government stores and black market sales, yeah. Their supply has been too limited throughout the war to really counter the government's air power, though.
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
horrible idea ectectect nothing we can do ectectect
The YPG and the Syrian Army were still fighting over the weekend. The Syrian airforce bombed Sheikh Massoud, that Kurdish neighbourhood in northern Aleppo. I have no idea how far the fighting will go. The US must be cheering this on, I'm sure they'd love for such a strong group to turn against Assad in an aggressive way.
edit: I'm already behind. A ceasefire was reached between the Rojava "government" and Syria. The terms are very favorable to the Kurds, so I guess Assad really doesn't want to start shit with them. Source is reddit, dude that shared it is very reliable though.
Berekat listed the following as the clauses of the agreement reached by the Rojava administration and the Ba’athist regime:
Both sides will abide to the ceasefire
The paramilitary NDF affiliated with the regime will be reviewed and later dismantled
The regime will not force public officials to take up arms and will not threaten them with dismissal or pay cuts
Both sides to release those taken captive
Material help to civilians who were affected by the attacks on the neighborhoods + compensation to families of killed civilians.
Regime forces will not interfere with people’s internal affairs
End to martial law in town
All forces keep the areas they now have
Youth from Rojava is not to be forced into military service in SAA.
Thanks Basar for that great run-down of Turkey, Erdogan and Gulen. I've heard of Gulen, but never from an insiders perspective and I feel like I understand the situation a lot better now.
TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Twenty-four people, many of them from a single family, are dead after ingesting sweets that had been mixed with pesticide, Pakistani officials said Monday.
Dozens more have been hospitalized.
Umer Hayat bought five kilograms (about 11 pounds) of laddu, a ball-shaped confection composed of dough and sugar, from Tariq Hotel & Sweet in the village of Karor Lal Essan, said Layyah District Coordination Officer Rana Gulzar. Located in the Layyah district of Punjab province, the village sits about 250 miles west of Lahore.
The sweets were to celebrate the birth of Hayat's grandson, Sajjad, but recipients of the treats began falling ill Thursday, Gulzar said.
Hayat is now in critical condition in a hospital, and six brothers, one sister and two children in his family have died after eating the laddu.
Investigators say the shopkeeper's servant has acknowledged that he accidentally mixed pesticide into the laddu, Gulzar said.
The shop has been closed down, and the owners, two brothers, have been taken into custody, he said.
The Punjab Food Authority is now looking into the matter.
Thanks Basar for that great run-down of Turkey, Erdogan and Gulen. I've heard of Gulen, but never from an insiders perspective and I feel like I understand the situation a lot better now.
You are welcome Tycho. I very much enjoy reading your perspective on ME as well.
Twenty-four people, many of them from a single family, are dead after ingesting sweets that had been mixed with pesticide, Pakistani officials said Monday.
Dozens more have been hospitalized.
What a shitty way for almost an entire family to be wiped off the earth
i live in a country with a batshit crazy president and no, english is not my first language
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Yeah there is probably no way that wasn't done on purpose.
You don't accidentally mix in pesticides in anything.
A lot of industrial pesticides come in the form of big plastic buckets full of white powder. While I don't have any experience in candy factories, I imagine the same is true for industrial sugar, flower and the like.
I can easily see, in a company that keeps all their shit in the same stockroom, someone grabbing the bucket full of deadly white powder instead of the other bucket full of sugar.
A lot of industrial pesticides come in the form of big plastic buckets full of white powder. While I don't have any experience in candy factories, I imagine the same is true for industrial sugar, flower and the like.
I can easily see, in a company that keeps all their shit in the same stockroom, someone grabbing the bucket full of deadly white powder instead of the other bucket full of sugar.
Especially if illiteracy and/or poor storage are involved too.
The mouthpieces of the Justice and Development Party government and pro-Erdogan media once saluted the guilty verdicts and high penalties — mostly against military personnel in uniform or retired high-ranking officers — as the triumph of popular will over the military tutelage that had taken the country captive.
Now the same dailies on their front pages enthusiastically salute the ruling of the High Court of Appeals that annulled the verdict of the court they had saluted three years ago with similar enthusiasm.
God dammit, I really hope the Obama administration does not give anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian rebels.
To be fair--I'm pretty sure they already have, if in a more round-about way.
Certain rebels, though.
Maybe. If so, they've done so in very limited numbers, though. Frankly I'm not sure I agree; Washington claims to have not done this/given its allies permission to do this, and the lack of rebels' anti-air capability seems to imply that they're at least mostly being honest. There are also alternative possible sources, including Syrian military stores (which the SAA often ends up leaving behind for rebels/IS to loot after losing control of an area; SAA is not good at retreating) and black market arms deals. Of the MANPADS I've seen used recently (the past month or two), two were by IS and one was Jabhat al-Nusra, not by any of the US's/Turkey's/KSA's favored rebel groups, which makes a non-US allied source more likely IMO. Then again, the idea of the KSA or Turkey slipping some AA missiles in despite the US's alleged demands not to doesn't sound implausible to me, and we all know how long it takes weapons to migrate from "moderate rebel groups" to al-Qaeda (hours?).
Also, here's a quote from that WSJ article:
To coalition partners including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the CIA has twinned assurances that the U.S. will allow the anti-Assad coalition to supply more weapons with warnings that they would be mistaken to go behind Washington’s back to provide weapons systems that Mr. Obama has decided so far not to introduce to the battlefield.
It's totally possible that the US is straight up lying about this, but the fact that rebels have generally lacked AA capability in this war leads me to the conclusion that they're probably telling the truth. If the CIA had been covertly shipping MANPADs to Syrian rebel groups I think we'd have seen a lot more planes come down, the same way we saw so many tanks destroyed by CIA-provided ATGMs. Additionally, the US-made TOWs mainly showed up in the hands of the directly US-backed rebel factions, rather than the jihadists, so the US involvement in that instance was obvious before it was reported on in mainstream media.
A lot of industrial pesticides come in the form of big plastic buckets full of white powder. While I don't have any experience in candy factories, I imagine the same is true for industrial sugar, flower and the like.
I can easily see, in a company that keeps all their shit in the same stockroom, someone grabbing the bucket full of deadly white powder instead of the other bucket full of sugar.
Especially if illiteracy and/or poor storage are involved too.
I really can't judge this. A few years ago, a family near my town were having a party, and the woman mixed the punch in an....antifreeze container. A couple people died. And just to prove that there was no malicious intent, the woman who made the punch also drank it and went blind.
A lot of industrial pesticides come in the form of big plastic buckets full of white powder. While I don't have any experience in candy factories, I imagine the same is true for industrial sugar, flower and the like.
I can easily see, in a company that keeps all their shit in the same stockroom, someone grabbing the bucket full of deadly white powder instead of the other bucket full of sugar.
Especially if illiteracy and/or poor storage are involved too.
I really can't judge this. A few years ago, a family near my town were having a party, and the woman mixed the punch in an....antifreeze container. A couple people died. And just to prove that there was no malicious intent, the woman who made the punch also drank it and went blind.
These things unfortunately happen.
Yeah, there's a reason why hazardous chemical warnings are pictographic.
The problem is, however, when people start storing hazardous chemicals in containers without those warnings. (And, of course, people just ignore the warnings....)
God dammit, I really hope the Obama administration does not give anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian rebels.
To be fair--I'm pretty sure they already have, if in a more round-about way.
Certain rebels, though.
Maybe. If so, they've done so in very limited numbers, though. Frankly I'm not sure I agree; Washington claims to have not done this/given its allies permission to do this, and the lack of rebels' anti-air capability seems to imply that they're at least mostly being honest. There are also alternative possible sources, including Syrian military stores (which the SAA often ends up leaving behind for rebels/IS to loot after losing control of an area; SAA is not good at retreating) and black market arms deals. Of the MANPADS I've seen used recently (the past month or two), two were by IS and one was Jabhat al-Nusra, not by any of the US's/Turkey's/KSA's favored rebel groups, which makes a non-US allied source more likely IMO. Then again, the idea of the KSA or Turkey slipping some AA missiles in despite the US's alleged demands not to doesn't sound implausible to me, and we all know how long it takes weapons to migrate from "moderate rebel groups" to al-Qaeda (hours?).
Also, here's a quote from that WSJ article:
To coalition partners including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the CIA has twinned assurances that the U.S. will allow the anti-Assad coalition to supply more weapons with warnings that they would be mistaken to go behind Washington’s back to provide weapons systems that Mr. Obama has decided so far not to introduce to the battlefield.
It's totally possible that the US is straight up lying about this, but the fact that rebels have generally lacked AA capability in this war leads me to the conclusion that they're probably telling the truth. If the CIA had been covertly shipping MANPADs to Syrian rebel groups I think we'd have seen a lot more planes come down, the same way we saw so many tanks destroyed by CIA-provided ATGMs. Additionally, the US-made TOWs mainly showed up in the hands of the directly US-backed rebel factions, rather than the jihadists, so the US involvement in that instance was obvious before it was reported on in mainstream media.
I should probably add the caveat: in comparatively small numbers compared to things like anti-tank weapons. What I was primarily thinking of was equipment like the (Chinese-made) FN-6--obviously, this could originate from any number of other countries, but I've personally believed the United States has supplied some number of less-traceable FN-6 to opposition fighters at Deir Al-Zor and other locales. As with the Chinese-made Type 56 rifles that the US purchased from arms dealers for the Mujahadeen, it could be many years before we can actually determine that they were not solely from other countries (as was believed to be the case for some time).
But, that's purely speculation on my part. I'd defer to others better aware of the ground situation than myself.
EDIT: Just to give you an idea of how far behind on am on the ground situation, I wasn't aware that the Russian government had supplied their T-90 MBT to the Syrian Arab Army for use in Aleppo and elsewhere until quite recently. At least one such tank has been hit by ATGM (though according to the BBC, the crew survived).
EDIT: Just to give you an idea of how far behind on am on the ground situation, I wasn't aware that the Russian government had supplied their T-90 MBT to the Syrian Arab Army for use in Aleppo and elsewhere until quite recently. At least one such tank has been hit by ATGM (though according to the BBC, the crew survived).
I saw the video of the attack when it was released. At least one dude jumps out of the tank, and it doesn't burst into flames so I guess the armour took most of it.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
It survived a shaped charge without reactive armor? That'll be going in the adverts.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
It survived a shaped charge without reactive armor? That'll be going in the adverts.
Well, the T-90 is almost entirely intended for the export market at this point (the Russian military will either purchase more T-14 tanks or, more likely, continue upgrading tanks to the T-72B3 standard), so more than likely, yes. I'm pretty sure India actually has the most T-90 tanks in service right now, not Russia, with more than 1200 tanks.
The footage isn't great though--at least the one I saw. A glowing missile hits a tank, it vanishes in a cloud of smoke, reappears, and human clamors out of the turret, video ends. No fire, burning, etc., but again, not great footage. I couldn't tell you if the tank was hit in the reactive armor or not.
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Kane Red RobeMaster of MagicArcanusRegistered Userregular
From what I have been told, modern MBTs are hellishly tough, hitting them with an anti-tank missile will probably kill the tank, but it's more likely to be a mobility kill than any kind of super obvious, turret blowing off the tank in a column of fire, kind of kill.
That's the same footage I was referencing, though I think there's footage of another tank also being hit. For this one, the turret is clearly visible before and after the hit. Conveniently, it's almost unmistakably a T-90 since you can clearly see the two Shtora active-protection system modules mounted on either side of the gun barrel (the only other tank that features them in such a configuration is a rare variant of the T-80U).
It's possible. I'm trying to find said BBC article, but as I recall they claimed all three crew survived--but it wouldn't be the first time the BBC made an error in reporting. We only see one person bailing (as far as I can tell, the gunner given the position he was climbing out of, rather than the vehicle commander). He seemed to be covering his ears, which would make sense. Maybe the video just ended before we could see the other two climbing out. Or maybe not.
I just think it's suspious they cut off the video so soon. Almost like five seconds later the tank rolled away with minor damage. It just looks so obviously edited to make it look like a victory.
From what I have been told, modern MBTs are hellishly tough, hitting them with an anti-tank missile will probably kill the tank, but it's more likely to be a mobility kill than any kind of super obvious, turret blowing off the tank in a column of fire, kind of kill.
There was an incident in the first gulf war, IIRC, where an M1 Abrams was disabled (I think from friendly fire?)
To destroy it to keep enemy salvagers away, they filled it with fuel oil, set it on fire, and shot it several times with other abrams tanks.
I just think it's suspious they cut off the video so soon. Almost like five seconds later the tank rolled away with minor damage. It just looks so obviously edited to make it look like a victory.
Although I wonder why the ads didn't work.
It's possible, though again, speculative. RT (and BBC and everyone else) got the footage from the video crew embeded with the Syrian rebels, so they have that to work with--I guess it's possible the vehicle's driver promptly moved the vehicle out of the way of danger (since he did not disembark). Or he might've been unconscious or worse (though that would disagree with the BBC rand other reports).
Here's a photograph of the alleged tank that's been making the circles on the internet. Again, the authenticity is up to suspicion, but at least some people believe it's authentic.
Just giving it a basic look over--it looks like the distinctive Kontakt-5 reactive armor--specifically, the pltes immediately left of the gun barrel--were blasted off by the TOW missile, leaving their mounting pegs. It's very hard to imagine a circumstance where they would've been removed otherwise, they're pretty sturdily mounted on the tank (that's less true for the dislodged Shtora projector next to the pegs, but I doubt a human or a physical impact from human error could remove one of those either). I would guess the explosive effect of the ERA knocked the unit free.
If the photo is accurate, it gives us some idea of the exterior damage of the tank.
From what I have been told, modern MBTs are hellishly tough, hitting them with an anti-tank missile will probably kill the tank, but it's more likely to be a mobility kill than any kind of super obvious, turret blowing off the tank in a column of fire, kind of kill.
There was an incident in the first gulf war, IIRC, where an M1 Abrams was disabled (I think from friendly fire?)
To destroy it to keep enemy salvagers away, they filled it with fuel oil, set it on fire, and shot it several times with other abrams tanks.
then they gave up and recovered it.
This story was referenced in the last ME thread I believe and someone commented that it was likely apocryphal. Which makes sense to me as I've heard the story many times over the years and there are never any specific details.
It's pretty likely a modern Russian tank hit with a standard TOW wouldn't be penetrated from the front where the most armor is. It'll be interesting if we get to see a T-90 vs a top attack variant of the TOW or Javelin, but those are pretty rare in Syria. I've only seen one video of each over the past couple of years come out of Syria.
The New York Times published a story Sunday saying the US Cyber Command had placed "implants" in IS networks that let experts monitor the group's behavior and ultimately imitate or alter commanders' messages so they unwittingly direct fighters to areas likely to be hit by drone or plane strikes.
Posts
Probably back on.
This bit may change things.
Yet another reason to hope that Trump doesn't get anywhere near the presidency. The two of them together would be horrifying.
When you're the most powerful person on the planet, that's just going to happen, either through action or inaction.
I really don't envy Obama for the choices he has to make.
Don't the Syrian rebels already have MANPADS? They were shooting down Syrian jets last month.
Eat at Arby's
edit: I'm already behind. A ceasefire was reached between the Rojava "government" and Syria. The terms are very favorable to the Kurds, so I guess Assad really doesn't want to start shit with them. Source is reddit, dude that shared it is very reliable though. https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/4g7ta6/qamishlo_ceasefire_agreement_terms/
*
Thanks Basar for that great run-down of Turkey, Erdogan and Gulen. I've heard of Gulen, but never from an insiders perspective and I feel like I understand the situation a lot better now.
US sending more special forces to Syria:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36126944
You are welcome Tycho. I very much enjoy reading your perspective on ME as well.
What a shitty way for almost an entire family to be wiped off the earth
You don't accidentally mix in pesticides in anything.
I can see putting pesticides on things like mint, then failing to sufficiently clean it before use.
I can easily see, in a company that keeps all their shit in the same stockroom, someone grabbing the bucket full of deadly white powder instead of the other bucket full of sugar.
Especially if illiteracy and/or poor storage are involved too.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/turkey-army-restored-its-standing.html
Possibly by being force-fed pesticide.
To be fair--I'm pretty sure they already have, if in a more round-about way.
Certain rebels, though.
Also, here's a quote from that WSJ article:
It's totally possible that the US is straight up lying about this, but the fact that rebels have generally lacked AA capability in this war leads me to the conclusion that they're probably telling the truth. If the CIA had been covertly shipping MANPADs to Syrian rebel groups I think we'd have seen a lot more planes come down, the same way we saw so many tanks destroyed by CIA-provided ATGMs. Additionally, the US-made TOWs mainly showed up in the hands of the directly US-backed rebel factions, rather than the jihadists, so the US involvement in that instance was obvious before it was reported on in mainstream media.
I really can't judge this. A few years ago, a family near my town were having a party, and the woman mixed the punch in an....antifreeze container. A couple people died. And just to prove that there was no malicious intent, the woman who made the punch also drank it and went blind.
These things unfortunately happen.
WoW
Dear Satan.....
Yeah, there's a reason why hazardous chemical warnings are pictographic.
The problem is, however, when people start storing hazardous chemicals in containers without those warnings. (And, of course, people just ignore the warnings....)
I should probably add the caveat: in comparatively small numbers compared to things like anti-tank weapons. What I was primarily thinking of was equipment like the (Chinese-made) FN-6--obviously, this could originate from any number of other countries, but I've personally believed the United States has supplied some number of less-traceable FN-6 to opposition fighters at Deir Al-Zor and other locales. As with the Chinese-made Type 56 rifles that the US purchased from arms dealers for the Mujahadeen, it could be many years before we can actually determine that they were not solely from other countries (as was believed to be the case for some time).
But, that's purely speculation on my part. I'd defer to others better aware of the ground situation than myself.
EDIT: Just to give you an idea of how far behind on am on the ground situation, I wasn't aware that the Russian government had supplied their T-90 MBT to the Syrian Arab Army for use in Aleppo and elsewhere until quite recently. At least one such tank has been hit by ATGM (though according to the BBC, the crew survived).
I saw the video of the attack when it was released. At least one dude jumps out of the tank, and it doesn't burst into flames so I guess the armour took most of it.
Well, the T-90 is almost entirely intended for the export market at this point (the Russian military will either purchase more T-14 tanks or, more likely, continue upgrading tanks to the T-72B3 standard), so more than likely, yes. I'm pretty sure India actually has the most T-90 tanks in service right now, not Russia, with more than 1200 tanks.
The footage isn't great though--at least the one I saw. A glowing missile hits a tank, it vanishes in a cloud of smoke, reappears, and human clamors out of the turret, video ends. No fire, burning, etc., but again, not great footage. I couldn't tell you if the tank was hit in the reactive armor or not.
Although I wonder why the ads didn't work.
There was an incident in the first gulf war, IIRC, where an M1 Abrams was disabled (I think from friendly fire?)
To destroy it to keep enemy salvagers away, they filled it with fuel oil, set it on fire, and shot it several times with other abrams tanks.
then they gave up and recovered it.
It's possible, though again, speculative. RT (and BBC and everyone else) got the footage from the video crew embeded with the Syrian rebels, so they have that to work with--I guess it's possible the vehicle's driver promptly moved the vehicle out of the way of danger (since he did not disembark). Or he might've been unconscious or worse (though that would disagree with the BBC rand other reports).
Here's a photograph of the alleged tank that's been making the circles on the internet. Again, the authenticity is up to suspicion, but at least some people believe it's authentic.
Just giving it a basic look over--it looks like the distinctive Kontakt-5 reactive armor--specifically, the pltes immediately left of the gun barrel--were blasted off by the TOW missile, leaving their mounting pegs. It's very hard to imagine a circumstance where they would've been removed otherwise, they're pretty sturdily mounted on the tank (that's less true for the dislodged Shtora projector next to the pegs, but I doubt a human or a physical impact from human error could remove one of those either). I would guess the explosive effect of the ERA knocked the unit free.
If the photo is accurate, it gives us some idea of the exterior damage of the tank.
It's pretty likely a modern Russian tank hit with a standard TOW wouldn't be penetrated from the front where the most armor is. It'll be interesting if we get to see a T-90 vs a top attack variant of the TOW or Javelin, but those are pretty rare in Syria. I've only seen one video of each over the past couple of years come out of Syria.
IS Response: We're going to adopt bitcoin!
Remember how I said that would piss off the Iranians?
It pissed off the Iranians.
Cyberwarfare
I found this bit interesting
And "Door Knocking" which did not have the intended effect. Poor lady.