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Republican Debate X: Swapping Out the Whiskey for Tequila

StericaSterica YesRegistered User, Moderator mod
edited February 2016 in Debate and/or Discourse
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The Tenth Republican Debate Thread is dedicated to the memory of the Bush Campaign

Time, etc.

8:30pm EST on CNN or Telemundo, with the usual stream on both sites. I assume it starts at 8:30 instead of 9 so they can wake up Carson in time.

How important is this?

This is the last debate prior to Super Tuesday, when the bulk of states do their primary voting. The number of delegates up for grabs is enough to assuredly result in at least a few candidates dropping out if they fuck up here, and it honestly wouldn't be surprising if one party determined its nominee off the results. This is the absolute last chance struggling campaigns have to make their case before a national audience.

Also, depending on how Super Tuesday goes, this could be the last Republican Primary Debate of 2016. It would also mean Trump would be the candidate. Oh boy!

What's the focus?

Latino issues, or to be more specific: intense xenophobia.

Where is it?

Houston, Texas

Who is moderating?

Wolf Blitzer, along with Maria Arras, Dana Bush, and Hugh Hewitt asking questions.

Tonight's Players

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Trump is riding high off his big South Carolina win, a state that just about every news network will remind you has picked every Republican nominee since the 80s (well, except for ol' Newt). He also won Nevada, which is less important but does give him a veneer of invincibility. After his absolutely ridiculous performance in the last debate, it seems like nothing can hurt Trump anymore. How often do you see a top Republican candidate say that Bush didn't keep us safe and that Planned Parenthood does some good things? And then, you know, win a southern primary? Expect anything from Trump. Well, except claiming that the audience is full of Bush donors.

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Cruz seems to be fading a bit, at least as the Top Rival to Trump. He's tied in delegates with Rubio, and they're both getting very close to tying for second place in the polls. This could be because Bush groupies have migrated mostly to Rubio, or maybe people actually think that Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. It would seriously not surprise me if Cruz was forced to drop out before Rubio if the latter cannot somehow catch up with Trump before going into Super Tuesday. Cruz is basically the only "asshole conservative" besides Trump that actually has a shot, and this debate he's been put in the unenviable position of being placed between a Trump and a hard place.

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Rubio has survived the sort of primary-within-a-primary to be the Establishment Candidate. Hey, one of my bullshit predictions came true for once, how about that? The only other similar person is Kasich and, well yeah. I kinda wonder if this means Rubio has to keep his head down lest the others try to gang up on him as being too much of a "insider" or whatever they're calling "Has a political career." If anything, he's got less to lose from this debate than anyone: as he's not in the lead where you can pretty much only stay neutral or fall behind, and he doesn't have to out-Trump the Donald. All he has to do is continue to be an alternative to the above two knuckleheads, and he has a legitimate shot...unless Cruz drops out and all his supports flock to Trump.

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Carson and Kasich have poll numbers so low that even combined they wouldn't even be competitive with Rubio. I can only assume that Carson got sleepy in the middle of a campaign meeting saying that he needs to drop out immediately, and then he woke up and went to the debate like nothing happened. Maybe it's because Carson started off fairly strong in 2015 as the second or third candidate behind Trump, and Carson has some kind of quixotic fantasy that this is still true. I guess he could also be angling for a VP nod...? Like always, he will whine incessantly about not getting enough airtime.

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John Kasich balanced the budget.

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Sterica on
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Posts

  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    Trump has this one in the bag, since none of these chucklefucks have shown any desire to fight for the nomination but insted seem to want a lock on 2nd place.

    Which would only make sense if this was a close race or headed for a brokered convention, but trump is currently sitting at more then twice the delegate count Rubio and Cruz have.

  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    edited February 2016
    Can the RNC still do that thing that people talk about where they simply deny Mr. Trump the super delegates, and thus he can't win the primary?


    I still don't think I'm understanding that process correctly. It doesn't seem to make any sense (and certainly does not seem to be democratic?).

    The Ender on
    With Love and Courage
  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    Can the RNC still do that thing that people talk about where they simply deny Mr. Trump the super delegates, and thus he can't win the primary?


    I still don't think I'm understanding that process correctly. It doesn't seem to make any sense (and certainly does not seem to be democratic?).

    Super delegates in general don't make any sense, but even assuming that there were enough of them to swing things agaainst trump it would have two equally disasterous effects.

    First, It would fundamentally destroy the credibility of the RNC/establishment since it would be a transparent usurpation of the democratic process (that actually effects the base) and it would render them hideously vulnerable to a 3rd party challenge by donald who would probably focus all his efforts on shitting all over the GOP nominee at the expense of his ultimate victory.

    Unless he actually dies on stage at the debates he's going to come out solid during super tuesday.

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Gaddez wrote: »
    Trump has this one in the bag, since none of these chucklefucks have shown any desire to fight for the nomination but insted seem to want a lock on 2nd place.

    Which would only make sense if this was a close race or headed for a brokered convention, but trump is currently sitting at more then twice the delegate count Rubio and Cruz have.

    If Rubio has a chance, it's based on Trump having maxed out support, and Rubio collecting everything that comes off the remaining candidates as they drop off. That being the case, he just needs to keep his head down and not be as repulsive as the alternatives.

    So Rubio's plan is a smart one. If the above isn't the case, then it's over and Trump is the nom, so it's not line he has a better option.

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  • StericaSterica Yes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Technically primaries aren't in any way guaranteed to be democratic, I believe, but trying to get around a Trump candidacy via a brute force superdelegate path isn't possible.

    First, it would lead to open revolt in within the party, and enough disgruntled conservatives would sit out the general election to all but ensure a democratic victory. And people would absolutely remember this, leading them to just pick another Trump-esque candidate four years late (if not just going for Trump again). So basically the Republican party stays out of the White House and probably ends up in a similar situation four years later. Not ideal.

    Second, superdelegates aren't really a thing in the Republican party like they are for Democrats. They make up maybe a percent of the total delegates, compared to the 20-25% that make up the democratic delegates. Further, republican superdelegates seem to have it as a rule to vote in the same manner as their state, but I dunno how binding it is. It might be an electoral college deal where they feasibly could vote another vote, but there's almost no chance of it happening to any relevant impact on the primary.

    Third, even if they were like democratic superdelegates, those delegates get to vote their own way. You'd have to convince a heavy majority of these delegates to vote against Trump, which would be a lot of work.

    Basically: it can't happen, and even if it could they wouldn't.

    YL9WnCY.png
  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    Trump has this one in the bag, since none of these chucklefucks have shown any desire to fight for the nomination but insted seem to want a lock on 2nd place.

    Which would only make sense if this was a close race or headed for a brokered convention, but trump is currently sitting at more then twice the delegate count Rubio and Cruz have.

    If Rubio has a chance, it's based on Trump having maxed out support, and Rubio collecting everything that comes off the remaining candidates as they drop off. That being the case, he just needs to keep his head down and not be as repulsive as the alternatives.

    So Rubio's plan is a smart one. If the above isn't the case, then it's over and Trump is the nom, so it's not line he has a better option.

    this has pretty much been my prediction from day 1

  • NyysjanNyysjan FinlandRegistered User regular
    While i have hard time picturing any person wanting to vote for Cruz, i have even harder time picturing people willing to vote for Cruz going lockstep to Rubio when there's a bigger, better asshole (ie Trump) available.
    So if/when Cruz drops out, i can't really make any guesses on where the votes go, if they go at all instead of staying home.

  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    Trump has this one in the bag, since none of these chucklefucks have shown any desire to fight for the nomination but insted seem to want a lock on 2nd place.

    Which would only make sense if this was a close race or headed for a brokered convention, but trump is currently sitting at more then twice the delegate count Rubio and Cruz have.

    If Rubio has a chance, it's based on Trump having maxed out support, and Rubio collecting everything that comes off the remaining candidates as they drop off. That being the case, he just needs to keep his head down and not be as repulsive as the alternatives.

    So Rubio's plan is a smart one. If the above isn't the case, then it's over and Trump is the nom, so it's not line he has a better option.

    Trouble there is itd require Cruz to be humble enough to drop out

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Isn't Trump skipping this debate?

  • Kid PresentableKid Presentable Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Isn't Trump skipping this debate?

    I think that was the previous "town hall" event, because Megyn Kelly was hosting.

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
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  • Regina FongRegina Fong Allons-y, Alonso Registered User regular
  • notdroidnotdroid Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Isn't Trump skipping this debate?

    I think that was the previous "town hall" event, because Megyn Kelly was hosting had blood coming out of her whatever. vagina. nose! I totally meant nose you guys! Women going to the bathroom with their lady parts is disgusting! It's disgusting! vote Trump 2016.

    Fixed.

  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    Trump has this one in the bag, since none of these chucklefucks have shown any desire to fight for the nomination but insted seem to want a lock on 2nd place.

    Which would only make sense if this was a close race or headed for a brokered convention, but trump is currently sitting at more then twice the delegate count Rubio and Cruz have.

    If Rubio has a chance, it's based on Trump having maxed out support, and Rubio collecting everything that comes off the remaining candidates as they drop off. That being the case, he just needs to keep his head down and not be as repulsive as the alternatives.

    So Rubio's plan is a smart one. If the above isn't the case, then it's over and Trump is the nom, so it's not line he has a better option.

    And if Christy Mack asked me to marry her I wouldn't have to worry about money or sex ever again.

  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    I like how Ben Carson is keeping in his slow bumbling persona by not realizing he should have already dropped, he's no longer helping his future Fox News Career.

    Whippy wrote: »
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  • Disco11Disco11 Registered User regular
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    PSN: Canadian_llama
  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    We can't drink Tequila! It's made by Mexicans!

    They took Whiskey's job!

  • IlpalaIlpala Just this guy, y'know TexasRegistered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    We can't drink Tequila! It's made by Mexicans!

    They took Whiskey's job!

    This is just the globalized world we live in where methods of inebriation have to compete with each other.

    FF XIV - Qih'to Furishu (on Siren), Battle.Net - Ilpala#1975
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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Where do you keep getting these amazing pictures of the candidates??

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited February 2016
    uQ4qBTP.png
    Carson and Kasich have poll numbers so low that even combined they wouldn't even be competitive with Rubio. I can only assume that Carson got sleepy in the middle of a campaign meeting saying that he needs to drop out immediately, and then he woke up and went to the debate like nothing happened. Maybe it's because Carson started off fairly strong in 2015 as the second or third candidate behind Trump, and Carson has some kind of quixotic fantasy that this is still true. I guess he could also be angling for a VP nod...? Like always, he will whine incessantly about not getting enough airtime.

    Carson is still here because his campaign is a direct-mail scam. And even he doesn't seem to realise it. Because apparently all race he has, technically, been in a coma.

    shryke on
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular

    The material that makes up Cruz's "face" still looks like it's dropping off both sides of the animatronic skeleton that it's attached to.

    Like seriously Ted, your face goes down at the sides and it's weird.

  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    uQ4qBTP.png
    Carson and Kasich have poll numbers so low that even combined they wouldn't even be competitive with Rubio. I can only assume that Carson got sleepy in the middle of a campaign meeting saying that he needs to drop out immediately, and then he woke up and went to the debate like nothing happened. Maybe it's because Carson started off fairly strong in 2015 as the second or third candidate behind Trump, and Carson has some kind of quixotic fantasy that this is still true. I guess he could also be angling for a VP nod...? Like always, he will whine incessantly about not getting enough airtime.

    Carson is still here because his campaign is a direct-mail scam. And even he doesn't seem to realise it. Because apparently all race he has, technically, been in a coma.

    Based on the stories that Carson has told combined with his perpretually sleepy voice I'm half convinced he's actually on prescribed anti-psychotic drugs.

  • CanipsoCanipso Deep Terror Threshark Registered User regular
    I'm a University of Houston alum and live fairly close to campus. Since I wasn't eligible for the lottery of 25 student/faculty tickets for the debate, I was thinking of going to one of the on-campus watch parties at the student center theater or the on-campus bar.

    Either that or keep doing what I have been doing: Three screens of this thread, fivethirtyeight updates, and the live debate. Plus margaritas.

    Tough choice.

  • KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    Carson's presence is the strangest phenomenon on the GOP stage, in my opinion. Not the scariest, not usually the most entertaining, but the strangest. And that's a fairly strong statement this election.

  • StericaSterica Yes Registered User, Moderator mod
    edited February 2016
    I dunno, the fact that he ever had a real enough following to get him this far is kinda scary

    Sterica on
    YL9WnCY.png
  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    I dunno, the fact that he ever had a real enough following to get him this far is kinda scary

    We were all scared he'd stab us or brain us with a hammer.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    pleasepaypreacher.net
  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    I dunno, the fact that he ever had a real enough following to get him this far is kinda scary
    Carson really is proof of the power of media astro-turfing; he's a boring educated conservative who got pushed entirely because of his skin tone; a desperate attempt to have a republican black spokesmen made further ridiculous by the fact that he champions a party so thoroughly opposed to affirmative action.

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular

    To be fair: having your photo right next to Ted Cruz automatically makes you look 50% less punchable.

    Gerry Cooney looks like a champ standing next to Cruz.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    I dunno, the fact that he ever had a real enough following to get him this far is kinda scary
    Carson really is proof of the power of media astro-turfing; he's a boring educated conservative who got pushed entirely because of his skin tone; a desperate attempt to have a republican black spokesmen made further ridiculous by the fact that he champions a party so thoroughly opposed to affirmative action.

    Eh, Carson's campaign isn't really astro-turf. His pre-campaign rise was all built around him being a black conservative, yes. But his campaign itself is based on appealing to religious conservatives via inspirational messaging and the kind of direct-mail scam campaign they are familiar and comfortable with.

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited February 2016
    shryke wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    I dunno, the fact that he ever had a real enough following to get him this far is kinda scary
    Carson really is proof of the power of media astro-turfing; he's a boring educated conservative who got pushed entirely because of his skin tone; a desperate attempt to have a republican black spokesmen made further ridiculous by the fact that he champions a party so thoroughly opposed to affirmative action.

    Eh, Carson's campaign isn't really astro-turf. His pre-campaign rise was all built around him being a black conservative, yes. But his campaign itself is based on appealing to religious conservatives via inspirational messaging and the kind of direct-mail scam campaign they are familiar and comfortable with.

    He also had pre-existing fame as an actually good surgeon that helped him out early on.

    Couscous on
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    shryke wrote: »

    The material that makes up Cruz's "face" still looks like it's dropping off both sides of the animatronic skeleton that it's attached to.

    Like seriously Ted, your face goes down at the sides and it's weird.

    It's trying to escape from the punch it knows is incoming.

    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited February 2016
    Disco11 wrote: »
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    You should have been watching in 2004, when Kerry got an amazing amount of shit for speaking fluent French.

    "It's bad enough you done knows how ta make words good, but you gotta make em in two whole languerges? We ain't look kindly on folks what know things, son."

    ElJeffe on
    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »

    The material that makes up Cruz's "face" still looks like it's dropping off both sides of the animatronic skeleton that it's attached to.

    Like seriously Ted, your face goes down at the sides and it's weird.

    Romney hasn't monopolized the robot vote, I see.

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Disco11 wrote: »
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    You should have been watching in 2004, when Kerry got an amazing amount of shit for speaking fluent French.

    "It's bad enough you done knows how ta make words good, but you gotta make em in two whole languerges? We ain't look kindly on folks what know things, son."

    I remember when the complaint against Kerry was that he probably wouldn't follow orders from Rome.

  • DoctorArchDoctorArch Curmudgeon Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Disco11 wrote: »
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    You should have been watching in 2004, when Kerry got an amazing amount of shit for speaking fluent French.

    "It's bad enough you done knows how ta make words good, but you gotta make em in two whole languerges? We ain't look kindly on folks what know things, son."

    I don't know if Mitt Romney was fluent, but after spending his missionary years in France I bet he was conversational at least.

    He also lived in a castle in France.

    Man of the people that one.

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  • kaleeditykaleedity Sometimes science is more art than science Registered User regular
    carson has an enormous pool of donors; more individuals have donated to him than any other republican.

    personally most of those should probably be tied to individual churches pushing it but what are you gonna do

  • Disco11Disco11 Registered User regular

    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Disco11 wrote: »
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    You should have been watching in 2004, when Kerry got an amazing amount of shit for speaking fluent French.

    "It's bad enough you done knows how ta make words good, but you gotta make em in two whole languerges? We ain't look kindly on folks what know things, son."

    We kind of expect our Prime Minister to be fluent in both English & French.

    Like, wtf guys. since when has ignorance been a virtue?

    PSN: Canadian_llama
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    Disco11 wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Disco11 wrote: »
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    You should have been watching in 2004, when Kerry got an amazing amount of shit for speaking fluent French.

    "It's bad enough you done knows how ta make words good, but you gotta make em in two whole languerges? We ain't look kindly on folks what know things, son."

    We kind of expect our Prime Minister to be fluent in both English & French.

    Like, wtf guys. since when has ignorance been a virtue?

    This is America. When has it not?

  • Disco11Disco11 Registered User regular
    Disco11 wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Disco11 wrote: »
    It's hard to believe anything will be as big of a shitshow as Carson gumming up the works during the stage entrance, or Rubio repeating the same line ad nauseum while he's being accused of repeating himself, or Cruz having to prove he can speak Spanish, or Trump accusing Jeb of wanting to moon everybody, or...

    Okay, actually, it's not hard to believe at all.

    As a Canadian, this race has been fascinating (in a slow motion car crash kind of way) and seeing how being bilingual is being portrayed as being "bad" is amazing.

    You should have been watching in 2004, when Kerry got an amazing amount of shit for speaking fluent French.

    "It's bad enough you done knows how ta make words good, but you gotta make em in two whole languerges? We ain't look kindly on folks what know things, son."

    We kind of expect our Prime Minister to be fluent in both English & French.

    Like, wtf guys. since when has ignorance been a virtue?

    This is America. When has it not?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbrcRKqLSRw

    Debates can be about issues and not yelling louder.

    PSN: Canadian_llama
This discussion has been closed.