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The Eleventh Republican Debate: back to the dark place
Sterica
YesRegistered User, Moderator mod
YesRegistered User, Moderator mod
What's the scoop?
9pm EST on Fox News, with a stream on their site.
Why is this important?
If you're reading this, it means that Super Tuesday occurred without a decisive winner. Primarily it means that Rubio and Cruz are staying in with the hopes that the other guy will drop and hand over supporters in the process. So we have yet another opportunity for candidates to turn things around and try to beat Trump. It's also the penultimate debate scheduled for this primary, so those opportunities are running out.
Where?
Detroit, Michigan
Who's moderating?
Megyn Kelly, Bret Baier, and Chris Wallace are the moderators. It seems like Fox is almost daring Trump to decline attendance by having Kelly moderate once more.
Tonight's Players
Trump could have only had a better Tuesday if he tied up the whole primary right there. That he didn't isn't a huge deal, as a candidate winning Super Tuesday and not the primary is exceedingly rare, so his only real goal is to stay the course until his competitors get the hint to bail. Trump's flamboyant, confrontational debate "style" seems to really motivates his base, so there's little reason to expect he won't do what he's been doing every debate. He could have a rough night though, as it seems like the GOP is in full on Anti-Trump mode, and last week's debate showed that Cruz and Rubio are learning Trump's weak points. But Trump welcomes heated exchanges, and if his supporters haven't left him now it's hard to see how two hours of yelling will change that.
Cruz has managed to stay afloat, which is fair since his numbers and Tuesday performance merit sticking with it a bit longer. At this point he has one goal if he wants to beat Trump: get Rubio out of the election as quickly as possible. This once again puts Cruz in a tricky situation, as he has to stay on the offensive against Trump while also knocking down Rubio. The thing about Cruz is that he and Trump are kinda operating on the same wavelength: a different type of candidate that doesn't compromise on conservative values. So should Rubio drop out, Cruz may not enjoy the boost of supporters that Rubio might gain should Cruz drop. Let me put it another way: people that support Cruz now have already made up their minds on the whole Trump vs. Cruz paradigm. They likely want Trump to lose if Cruz drops out. Meanwhile, Rubio backers probably just want their safe establishment pick, and they are less likely to have made the Trump/Cruz choice. It's just a really tricky position to be in, even if Cruz is doing better than Rubio in the primary.
Rubio had a really awful Tuesday, and his long-term prospects aren't much better with Trump doing extremely well in Rubio's home state of Florida. Fortunately, his job tonight is a bit easier than Cruz. He just has to keep doing what he's been doing recently: attack Trump on things such as the details of various proposals and basically make Trump look like a superficial conman. Should Cruz burn out, then Rubio doesn't really need to prove much to former Cruz supporters, as Rubio will likely enjoy a swelling of "fuck Trump" voters. Rubio is basically the candidate we were supposed to get this election, and that's a good spot to be in when your opposition is fighting over the title of Rebel Outsider. Shit, Rubio may just serve himself as a sacrificial lamb attacking Trump all night. It's really hard to say, but I think the main thing about Rubio tonight is that he doesn't have much to lose, so he'll probably go in swinging.
John Kasich balanced the budget.
+11
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
What's unsaid after 10 debates already?
That John Kasich balanced the budget.
There are four remaining mega-delegate states for the GOP: Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and California. Between them, there are 383 delegates to win, and all the primaries are Winner-Take-All.
Trump is currently leading in polls in all but California, where no relevant data has been collected since December, which then showed he and Cruz at a dead heat.
Take a look at this calendar with rough polling preferences (T= Trump, etc):
March 5
Kansas T
Kentucky T
Louisiana T
Maine T
MARCH 6
Puerto Rico no data
MARCH 8
Hawaii T
Idaho T
Michigan T
Mississippi T
MARCH 12
District of Columbia tie T, R
MARCH 15
Florida T
Illinois T
Missouri T
North Carolina T
Ohio T
MARCH 22
Arizona T
Utah 3-way tie T, R, C
APRIL 5
Wisconsin T
APRIL 19
New York T
APRIL 26
Connecticut T
Delaware no data
Maryland T
Pennsylvania T
Rhode Island T
MAY 3
Indiana T
MAY 10
Nebraska T
West Virginia T
MAY 17
Oregon T
MAY 24
Washington T
JUNE 7
California C
Montana C
New Jersey T
New Mexico C
South Dakota no data
If Cruz can bring in California, that'll be a huge get for him, but by June 7th will it even matter?
Hey last time they did over 20 debates, not to mention unsanctioned appearances.
This will be an interesting debate. If you were ever curious as to whether or not Megyn Kelly could kill someone by looking at them, tonight will be the night to find out.
With Ailes saying that they are done with Rubio & with Kelly already declaring that Mr. Trump was 'looking Presidential' after Super Tuesday, I think Fox is now going to be looking to smooth things over with Mr. Trump.
They chose to be Partisan Hack Network as their sole selling point, so they'd be in for a rough future if they chose to continue an antagonistic relationship with Mr. Trump.
Reuters is reporting that the Kochtopus will not fund an insurgency against Trump as well.
That whole "looking presidential" thing was just a trick of brain chemistry, though. It was entirely based on the number of flags He was standing in front of. It's the Republican equivalent of "light means up" for insects.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Not really surprising, though. They're afraid of fracturing the conservative coalition.
It's like what Maddow said on the Tonight Show, I forget exactly how she phrased it but she pretty much said "The Republicans can have the Republican Party, Trump will just have all their voters."
Or like a weak plurality of them because one of the key attributes of Republicans is an ignorance (willful or otherwise) of the tragedy of the commons.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Not nearly as well as hangover treatments and liver transplant pre-op medications.
And the huge certainty if they tried to bring their money to bear against trump it would wind up making trump stronger yet and then furious at them and given how thin skinned trump appears to be thats not a wise long term bet for the money men.
It's gonna be yuge.
No idea why Kasich is still there besides to spite Rubio.
Didn't you hear? He balanced the budget.
Do not engage the Watermelons.
Kasich thinks the clock will reset a decade, and everyone will suddenly realize he is the only serious candidate in the race.
Do not engage the Watermelons.
The clown show finally collapsed in on itself into a quantum singularity... please?
Haven't made it through one yet
Get stronger, liver
I am very interested to see how this one plays out. In the last debate, Wolf didn't even have the illusion of control. I want to see some discussion of core issues and no bickering.
[/Joker]
Gonna be AWESOME
And then candidate will ignore it
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
"You're a loser, also free trade great."