They've been tolerable but perform worse than the really good phone pollsters in the US. In the UK they've been an utter disaster.
Except they were vastly more accurate for the European referendum than the Phone pollsters.
Polling is hard.
Without paying too much attention, it seems much harder in the UK. Which is weird since it's a smaller, less diverse country.
When anywhere between three and five parties are vying for seats in Westminster, it's really hard to translate national polls to seats won without a constituency-by-constituency polling.
Yup. Same issues in Canadian polling. National or provincial polls have to be heavily worked to get riding by riding results and the accuracy after doing so is questionable. But polling the actual ridings one by one is difficult and expensive, even though it's the data that actually matters.
FiveThirtyEight generally takes an inclusive attitude towards polls. Our forecast models include polls from pollsters who use traditional methods, i.e., live interviewers. And we include surveys conducted with less tested techniques, such as interactive voice response (or “robopolls”) and online panels. We don’t treat all polls equally — our models account for the methodological quality and past accuracy of each pollster — but we’ll take all the data we can get.
This split, however, between live-interview polls and everything else, is something we keep our eye on. When we launched our general election forecasts in late June, there wasn’t a big difference in the results we were getting from polls using traditional methodologies and polls using newer techniques. Now, it’s pretty clear that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is wider in live-telephone surveys than it is in nonlive surveys.
(nonlive also includes robocall polling)
The article then looks at the differences in detail.
It's because parliament votes on the PM. Imagine if the house voted on the President. In order to know who would be president you would have to know who was going to win congress. And a single poll does not tell you that.
+1
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
edited September 2016
Gross. Morning news is showing video of Trump at rallies with an intolerably smug smirk on his face saying "Do you think Hillary Clinton would be able to stand up here for an hour and speak?"
I wish I had taken a picture of his face. I would frame it and display it in an art gallery, enttitled "Toad Inhales the Odor of its Own Fart"
Edit: uggghhhh discussing Clinton's release of her medical records by showing a poll of how people don't trust her and how this episode shows you can't trust her instincts to be transparent
Don't we all long for Sunday afternoon when everyone was telling me Clinton's collapse would have no effect on the polls because the average voter is too stupid to pay attention to the news.
It's September, there are three debates yet to come, and no reasonable state-by-state scenario shows Trump with enough electoral votes to win. I'm not too worried about anything except Hillary returning to the campaign trail before she recovers sufficiently. We are still in the part of the election that's a marathon, not a sprint.
CBS/NYT implemented their likely screen. In other news.
Thirty-six percent of registered voters overall now say they are very enthusiastic about voting, the same as a month ago. But one disadvantage for Clinton is that enthusiasm among Republican voters has remained steady, while enthusiasm among Democrats has dropped. Among Democratic voters, the percentage that is at least somewhat enthusiastic has dropped from 77 percent in August to 64 percent today, while the percentage of Democrats who are very enthusiastic has dropped nine points – from 47 percent to 38 percent.
specifically, Trump supporters are more excited about voting than Clinton’s supporters are. Forty-five percent of Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 36 percent of Clinton backers who feel that way.
As a European who had successfully logged off of the race during the weekend, seeing the monday papers in Belgium head an article with "Hilary Clinton has pneumonia" something inside of me died.
Srsly, America, we know we've been going steady since that whole marshall plan thing, but if you fuck this up, I think we will need to start seeing other world powers...
SurfpossumA nonentitytrying to preserve the anonymity he so richly deserves.Registered Userregular
edited September 2016
So Jill Stein's facebook page shared this, alleging Obama "sold" offices to donors.
I haven't looked into the emails much myself, but this sort of thing exacerbates my worry that a few more percentage points will be beyond even Obama's campaigning. He's already part of The Enemy among some sections of the left.
Has Bernie been doing much of anything to help out?
As a European who had successfully logged off of the race during the weekend, seeing the monday papers in Belgium head an article with "Hilary Clinton has pneumonia" something inside of me died.
Srsly, America, we know we've been going steady since that whole marshall plan thing, but if you fuck this up, I think we will need to start seeing other world powers...
my best friend sent me a thing about how Clinton has a doctor with an anti seizure injector that follows her around
I showed him a gif of the "doctor" turning it on and flashing the light on people and said "I didnt know seizure injectors came in flashlight variety now" and he went offline
Like even if you don't think the under 50 population is going to show up in high numbers, you should be asking enough of them to get a reasonable sub-sample and re-weighting based on turnout projections. Which is what they do with racial minorities all the time. It's weird that they didn't. And 41% of the Ohio electorate was under 45 four years ago, so it's an important group!
You're making the bizarre assumption that they aren't weighting based on turnout projections that just happen to align with the massive drop in young voter enthusiasm and support for either major party.
But how would they know either of those things when they continuously fail to poll younger voters?
my best friend sent me a thing about how Clinton has a doctor with an anti seizure injector that follows her around
I showed him a gif of the "doctor" turning it on and flashing the light on people and said "I didnt know seizure injectors came in flashlight variety now" and he went offline
I'm sad
You may laugh, but these people are gonna win the election you know.
my best friend sent me a thing about how Clinton has a doctor with an anti seizure injector that follows her around
I showed him a gif of the "doctor" turning it on and flashing the light on people and said "I didnt know seizure injectors came in flashlight variety now" and he went offline
I'm sad
I can't believe I never noticed Tom Hardy strapped to the prow in this image of Clinton's official campaign vehicle
I'm thinking maybe it did but for me personally it was a "fuck yeah" moment and exactly what I wanted out of her. It amazes that it could help Trump especially with the news shockingly even asking the "is it true?" question and finding "yeah it's either true or it's being generous"
As a European who had successfully logged off of the race during the weekend, seeing the monday papers in Belgium head an article with "Hilary Clinton has pneumonia" something inside of me died.
Srsly, America, we know we've been going steady since that whole marshall plan thing, but if you fuck this up, I think we will need to start seeing other world powers...
Unfortunately if we fuck this up, we'll be sleeping with the other world power.
So Jill Stein's facebook page shared this, alleging Obama "sold" offices to donors.
I haven't looked into the emails much myself, but this sort of thing exacerbates my worry that a few more percentage points will be beyond even Obama's campaigning. He's already part of The Enemy among some sections of the left.
Has Bernie been doing much of anything to help out?
As a European who had successfully logged off of the race during the weekend, seeing the monday papers in Belgium head an article with "Hilary Clinton has pneumonia" something inside of me died.
Srsly, America, we know we've been going steady since that whole marshall plan thing, but if you fuck this up, I think we will need to start seeing other world powers...
Unfortunately if we fuck this up, we'll be sleeping with the other world power.
On the UK side this plays out the same way, except it's Jeremy Corbyn. Good news is he hasn't got a chance against PM May, who is literally Thatcher reincarnated.
I'm thinking maybe it did but for me personally it was a "fuck yeah" moment and exactly what I wanted out of her. It amazes that it could help Trump especially with the news shockingly even asking the "is it true?" question and finding "yeah it's either true or it's being generous"
The problem is it got wrapped into the health things. The basket was a double edged sword in that while it might hurt Clinton it hurt Trump by changing the discussion to his followers. The health thing, inexplicably, does not have that same issue.
I mean, it's not like Trump just backed out of releasing his health report at the last second or anything.
So Jill Stein's facebook page shared this, alleging Obama "sold" offices to donors.
I haven't looked into the emails much myself, but this sort of thing exacerbates my worry that a few more percentage points will be beyond even Obama's campaigning. He's already part of The Enemy among some sections of the left.
Has Bernie been doing much of anything to help out?
The emails don't do much to bolster support, no. Though I have absolutely no doubt that this happens on either side when they're office, having them floating around this close to the election doesn't help at all.
The Powell stuff is a mixed bag, since he hits at both sides of the isle. But from what I've read his Trump stuff is mostly relegated to calling him an idiot and a disaster, where the Hillary stuff gets into specifics and the electorate really doesn't need to be reminded that Bill is still fucking women on the side.
The RNC hacks could be damaging to Trump if they come out, because I assume that they would make the DNC ones on Bernie look tame in comparison, given how badly they didn't want Trump in once they realised he might actually win the whole thing.
The RNC email hack isn't going to hurt Trump, for a number of reasons.
Mostly, though, it's going to make him look like the victim of party collusion. Which is the opposite of the look it gave Clinton. That's a very different thing to sell a campaign narrative on.
Posts
Yup. Same issues in Canadian polling. National or provincial polls have to be heavily worked to get riding by riding results and the accuracy after doing so is questionable. But polling the actual ridings one by one is difficult and expensive, even though it's the data that actually matters.
Can't find the article, but this one talks about how they use all polls but each poll is treated differently. The actual article is about the difference in results in this election between live polls and online polls. (nonlive also includes robocall polling)
The article then looks at the differences in detail.
I wish I had taken a picture of his face. I would frame it and display it in an art gallery, enttitled "Toad Inhales the Odor of its Own Fart"
Edit: uggghhhh discussing Clinton's release of her medical records by showing a poll of how people don't trust her and how this episode shows you can't trust her instincts to be transparent
*sighs heavily*
NNID: Hakkekage
Because anyone who can put up with this bullshit for 30+ years without choking anyone out is an icon of patience.
Steam ID XBL: JohnnyChopsocky PSN:Stud_Beefpile WiiU:JohnnyChopsocky
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-locked-in-tight-race-nationally-cbsnyt-poll/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=28813916
This has been a poor month.
Srsly, America, we know we've been going steady since that whole marshall plan thing, but if you fuck this up, I think we will need to start seeing other world powers...
He can't even express thoughts more complex than how things he likes are good-big and things he doesn't like are bad-big.
Is it tho
Just raising questions
Your daughter is secretly Hillary Clinton?
The little girl Hilary hugged.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
she will be Hillary's new host organism
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Trump's a lizard, Hillary's an Illuminati.
I haven't looked into the emails much myself, but this sort of thing exacerbates my worry that a few more percentage points will be beyond even Obama's campaigning. He's already part of The Enemy among some sections of the left.
Has Bernie been doing much of anything to help out?
but I don't fancy any of the other ones.
our dating pool is really shallow.
we might have to move.
I showed him a gif of the "doctor" turning it on and flashing the light on people and said "I didnt know seizure injectors came in flashlight variety now" and he went offline
I'm sad
But how would they know either of those things when they continuously fail to poll younger voters?
I can't believe I never noticed Tom Hardy strapped to the prow in this image of Clinton's official campaign vehicle
NNID: Hakkekage
I'm thinking maybe it did but for me personally it was a "fuck yeah" moment and exactly what I wanted out of her. It amazes that it could help Trump especially with the news shockingly even asking the "is it true?" question and finding "yeah it's either true or it's being generous"
Guess.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
On the UK side this plays out the same way, except it's Jeremy Corbyn. Good news is he hasn't got a chance against PM May, who is literally Thatcher reincarnated.
The problem is it got wrapped into the health things. The basket was a double edged sword in that while it might hurt Clinton it hurt Trump by changing the discussion to his followers. The health thing, inexplicably, does not have that same issue.
I mean, it's not like Trump just backed out of releasing his health report at the last second or anything.
Oh...
The emails don't do much to bolster support, no. Though I have absolutely no doubt that this happens on either side when they're office, having them floating around this close to the election doesn't help at all.
The Powell stuff is a mixed bag, since he hits at both sides of the isle. But from what I've read his Trump stuff is mostly relegated to calling him an idiot and a disaster, where the Hillary stuff gets into specifics and the electorate really doesn't need to be reminded that Bill is still fucking women on the side.
The RNC hacks could be damaging to Trump if they come out, because I assume that they would make the DNC ones on Bernie look tame in comparison, given how badly they didn't want Trump in once they realised he might actually win the whole thing.
Mostly, though, it's going to make him look like the victim of party collusion. Which is the opposite of the look it gave Clinton. That's a very different thing to sell a campaign narrative on.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Welp. I know what image is going to be in MY nightmares tonight