Pissed due to what, how close the filing deadline is?
No, they wanted to have a compressed schedule, with parties picking their own candidates, and a short general.
Is that just so they could cut costs of the overall process, or is there another benefit to them?
Party over name recognition I'd guess.
Doesn't that mean they won't have a congressman (and thus the Pubs will be down one) in that district from between Chaffetz' retirement and the November?
Pissed due to what, how close the filing deadline is?
No, they wanted to have a compressed schedule, with parties picking their own candidates, and a short general.
Is that just so they could cut costs of the overall process, or is there another benefit to them?
Party over name recognition I'd guess.
Doesn't that mean they won't have a congressman (and thus the Pubs will be down one) in that district from between Chaffetz' retirement and the November?
Does put the GOP down by one for a good while, yeah, which is harrowing in a time of two possible Dem pickups (there's also an open seat in a Dem-leaning district due to a Dem congressman getting busted for fraud, out in California).
can only be good news for Ossof and Quist. MT-AL is going to really determine what goes on in the coming months, so hopefully it goes well.
The tricky thing in MT is its a state that leans Republican. Tester has done well and so have Schweitzer and Bullock but Montana is still like R+11. The more you nationalize the race the more the natural partisan lean of a state/district comes into play. And Trump won Montana by 19% so I don't know that he's that awesome of a millstone to drag down the GOP. Bernie coming to campaign for Quist might energize the Dem side but Montana was weaker than expected for him (he won in the Dem primary 55-45) given the demographics so I'm not sure that will make a huge difference. In the Omaha mayoral Nebraska Dems blamed him for Mello losing because he nationalized the mayoral race (I'd guess unfairly or at the very least its an exaggeration but its probably true it wasn't a positive effect) and I don't know that any outside figure can really help.
I think its going to more be about the unpopularity of AHCA and Republicans in Congress and the candidates themselves. Quist isn't an awesome candidate but Gianforte is probably worse. Between those two factors it might be winnable with some luck
Pissed due to what, how close the filing deadline is?
No, they wanted to have a compressed schedule, with parties picking their own candidates, and a short general.
Is that just so they could cut costs of the overall process, or is there another benefit to them?
Party over name recognition I'd guess.
Doesn't that mean they won't have a congressman (and thus the Pubs will be down one) in that district from between Chaffetz' retirement and the November?
Does put the GOP down by one for a good while, yeah, which is harrowing in a time of two possible Dem pickups (there's also an open seat in a Dem-leaning district due to a Dem congressman getting busted for fraud, out in California).
Out of curiosity which rep was it? The only California special election I see is for CA-34 since Xavier Becerra is now CA AG and that election is looking pretty good for the Dems since both candidates are Democrats.
can only be good news for Ossof and Quist. MT-AL is going to really determine what goes on in the coming months, so hopefully it goes well.
The tricky thing in MT is its a state that leans Republican. Tester has done well and so have Schweitzer and Bullock but Montana is still like R+11. The more you nationalize the race the more the natural partisan lean of a state/district comes into play. And Trump won Montana by 19% so I don't know that he's that awesome of a millstone to drag down the GOP. Bernie coming to campaign for Quist might energize the Dem side but Montana was weaker than expected for him (he won in the Dem primary 55-45) given the demographics so I'm not sure that will make a huge difference. In the Omaha mayoral Nebraska Dems blamed him for Mello losing because he nationalized the mayoral race (I'd guess unfairly or at the very least its an exaggeration but its probably true it wasn't a positive effect) and I don't know that any outside figure can really help.
I think its going to more be about the unpopularity of AHCA and Republicans in Congress and the candidates themselves. Quist isn't an awesome candidate but Gianforte is probably worse. Between those two factors it might be winnable with some luck
Mello losing was more that there is no longer any patience for anti-choice Democrats like him.
And the Republicans are now in full fearmongering mode up here - the last ad I saw was all "ISIS! North Korea! Democrats want to weaken the military! Boo!" I'm thinking the domestic stuff wasn't getting the traction they wanted.
can only be good news for Ossof and Quist. MT-AL is going to really determine what goes on in the coming months, so hopefully it goes well.
The tricky thing in MT is its a state that leans Republican. Tester has done well and so have Schweitzer and Bullock but Montana is still like R+11. The more you nationalize the race the more the natural partisan lean of a state/district comes into play. And Trump won Montana by 19% so I don't know that he's that awesome of a millstone to drag down the GOP. Bernie coming to campaign for Quist might energize the Dem side but Montana was weaker than expected for him (he won in the Dem primary 55-45) given the demographics so I'm not sure that will make a huge difference. In the Omaha mayoral Nebraska Dems blamed him for Mello losing because he nationalized the mayoral race (I'd guess unfairly or at the very least its an exaggeration but its probably true it wasn't a positive effect) and I don't know that any outside figure can really help.
I think its going to more be about the unpopularity of AHCA and Republicans in Congress and the candidates themselves. Quist isn't an awesome candidate but Gianforte is probably worse. Between those two factors it might be winnable with some luck
Mello losing was more that there is no longer any patience for anti-choice Democrats like him.
And the Republicans are now in full fearmongering mode up here - the last ad I saw was all "ISIS! North Korea! Democrats want to weaken the military! Boo!" I'm thinking the domestic stuff wasn't getting the traction they wanted.
Of course it wasn't getting any traction since it lead right back to the GOP. When dodging bullets it helps to not be firing them at yourself.
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Pissed due to what, how close the filing deadline is?
No, they wanted to have a compressed schedule, with parties picking their own candidates, and a short general.
Is that just so they could cut costs of the overall process, or is there another benefit to them?
Party over name recognition I'd guess.
Doesn't that mean they won't have a congressman (and thus the Pubs will be down one) in that district from between Chaffetz' retirement and the November?
Does put the GOP down by one for a good while, yeah, which is harrowing in a time of two possible Dem pickups (there's also an open seat in a Dem-leaning district due to a Dem congressman getting busted for fraud, out in California).
Out of curiosity which rep was it? The only California special election I see is for CA-34 since Xavier Becerra is now CA AG and that election is looking pretty good for the Dems since both candidates are Democrats.
Oh, that's what it was. Maybe i was confusing it with another district, in another state, where somebody got arrested.
Ideally they run someone in every single seat, on the off chance 2018 is a wave that kicks out Republicans en masse.
They'll probably run people in most seats. In 2016 there were only a couple dozen seats Dems didn't contest, mostly but not all places that are very Republican, the sorts of places you wouldn't expect to win even in a very big wave year. And the DNC is moving back towards the fifty state strategy, so we'll likely see greater effort to run candidates even in those districts. Sometimes it's difficult, though. Texas 13, for example, is very red (R+32). Obama got about 18% of the vote in 2012. Given that there aren't even all that many Democrats in the district in the first place, how do you find someone who fits the legal requirements, would make a decent candidate, and is willing to throw away months or a year of their life away to run for an office they're almost certainly not going to win helped solely by a more or less non-existent local Dem apparatus? They can go outside the district, since the only geographic requirement is that you live in the correct state, but then they run afoul of carpet bagging claims (something thrown a lot at Ossoff in GA-6). Recruitment is a non-trivial task
That said, when they're talking about targeting, they're already almost certainly planning on running candidates in those districts. Targeting means things like sending money and operatives to those districts.
Pissed due to what, how close the filing deadline is?
No, they wanted to have a compressed schedule, with parties picking their own candidates, and a short general.
Is that just so they could cut costs of the overall process, or is there another benefit to them?
Party over name recognition I'd guess.
Doesn't that mean they won't have a congressman (and thus the Pubs will be down one) in that district from between Chaffetz' retirement and the November?
Does put the GOP down by one for a good while, yeah, which is harrowing in a time of two possible Dem pickups (there's also an open seat in a Dem-leaning district due to a Dem congressman getting busted for fraud, out in California).
Out of curiosity which rep was it? The only California special election I see is for CA-34 since Xavier Becerra is now CA AG and that election is looking pretty good for the Dems since both candidates are Democrats.
Oh, that's what it was. Maybe i was confusing it with another district, in another state, where somebody got arrested.
PA-2 had our congressman get arrested, good old Chaka Fattah. But it was after he lost the primary last year, mostly due to the impending conviction.
It's the local seats that the Dems suck at filling.
Oregon replaced a lot of school board/parks board members with Dems here and in my home town as well last week.
People are ready to run for those seats right now
Oh, I know. Dems managed to get enough seats to build a bipartisen coalition in the Alaska House.
Wow, thinking about this sort of nonsense makes me remember the absurdity of US state senatorial representation again. Considering Wyoming and Alaska, if we could get 150k people to move from Washington DC to those two states, we could make ourselves another couple of Hawaii's. Dark blue in-assailable democratic strongholds. We could pay them $5K apiece to do it and still have it only be like half of democratic spending for congressional elections in 2016.
Urgh, the US political system is insane.
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I'm trying real hard to not get my hopes up about Montana
Yeah, its a bit of a shame that we can't get a special election in a district where the R's have like a +7 advantage to see if our swing is actually working in districts where the Republicans might lose.
I'm trying real hard to not get my hopes up about Montana
Yeah, its a bit of a shame that we can't get a special election in a district where the R's have like a +7 advantage to see if our swing is actually working in districts where the Republicans might lose.
I do just love how you're all writing off where I live. Makes me feel like I'm a goose for living here and thinking that perhaps you don't understand what's happening here.
You're not a goose for living in Montana, I'm not a goose for being in Tennessee, it's great that normally huge margins are shrinking, but I think Quist is probably going to lose.
2016 broke a lot of peoples optimism. Democrats lost in places they expected to win, so going forward its hard to hope in places they traditionally struggle like in rural red state america.
I mean I believe you Hedgie, but its hard to hope in Trump's america.
Preacher on
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
You're not a goose for living in Montana, I'm not a goose for being in Tennessee, it's great that normally huge margins are shrinking, but I think Quist is probably going to lose.
Gianforte already has lost one election that was supposed to be his for the taking. The dark money ads stopped trying to sell him a month ago. Ultimately, elections are about turnout and base motivation, and I think that is going to be on short supply for the right.
You're not a goose for living in Montana, I'm not a goose for being in Tennessee, it's great that normally huge margins are shrinking, but I think Quist is probably going to lose.
Gianforte already has lost one election that was supposed to be his for the taking. The dark money ads stopped trying to sell him a month ago. Ultimately, elections are about turnout and base motivation, and I think that is going to be on short supply for the right.
additionally, I don't think anyone here is hoping you're wrong. we're just living in the aftermath of what rural america just did to us, and i'd rather not be fooled again. November was a very bad month for me.
The poll internals show near unanimity among Democrats and Dem leaners, while Handel only gets 75% of Republican leaners and 30% of true independents. Holy shit if true.
The Dems would win 300 seats if they had that kind of movement nationally.
The poll internals show near unanimity among Democrats and Dem leaners, while Handel only gets 75% of Republican leaners and 30% of true independents. Holy shit if true.
The Dems would win 300 seats if they had that kind of movement nationally.
I dunno if we can maintain that until 2018, but god I hope so.
The poll internals show near unanimity among Democrats and Dem leaners, while Handel only gets 75% of Republican leaners and 30% of true independents. Holy shit if true.
The Dems would win 300 seats if they had that kind of movement nationally.
I dunno if we can maintain that until 2018, but god I hope so.
The question is, can Trump, Ryan, McConnell, and Sessions all manage to continue being the biggest assholes in the world for 12 months straight?
The poll internals show near unanimity among Democrats and Dem leaners, while Handel only gets 75% of Republican leaners and 30% of true independents. Holy shit if true.
The Dems would win 300 seats if they had that kind of movement nationally.
I dunno if we can maintain that until 2018, but god I hope so.
The question is, can Trump, Ryan, McConnell, and Sessions all manage to continue being the biggest assholes in the world for 12 months straight?
I am not sure they are physically capable of not doing so.
Like, pretty sure Ryan needs attempting to kick poor people off of healthcare in order to properly process oxygen.
There's no plan, there's no race to be run
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
The poll internals show near unanimity among Democrats and Dem leaners, while Handel only gets 75% of Republican leaners and 30% of true independents. Holy shit if true.
The Dems would win 300 seats if they had that kind of movement nationally.
I dunno if we can maintain that until 2018, but god I hope so.
The question is, can Trump, Ryan, McConnell, and Sessions all manage to continue being the biggest assholes in the world for 12 months straight?
McConnell is at 100 months running, so presumably he's fine.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Which could be why my Montana-resident husband received a nice telephone call this week asking him whom he’d be supporting in the special Congressional election. “Rob Quist,” he said, because my husband is not an idiot. (And because nobody likes Greg Gianforte, who lost to a Democrat for governor just last fall, underperforming Donald Trump by 10 percent.)
The young lady calling from the Idaho number thanked him and asked him to be sure to vote early! Early voting would start at 8 p.m. on May 25, she said, ever so helpfully!
Please do not listen to that young lady, fellow Montanans. May 25 (Thursday, which is fucked up) is election day; early voting is NOW.
We contacted the US Attorney for Montana, the Montana AG, the FEC and the FCC to complain A WHOLE LOT; all said it wasn’t their purview. The Secretary of State’s office did call back with a website though, after asking if the young lady might not just have misspoken.
Gonna go with HELL NO. That “misspeaking” was a bit too specific.
Greg Gianforte’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment, but honestly, what could they say?
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God damn disgusting.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Doesn't that mean they won't have a congressman (and thus the Pubs will be down one) in that district from between Chaffetz' retirement and the November?
Does put the GOP down by one for a good while, yeah, which is harrowing in a time of two possible Dem pickups (there's also an open seat in a Dem-leaning district due to a Dem congressman getting busted for fraud, out in California).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
can only be good news for Ossof and Quist. MT-AL is going to really determine what goes on in the coming months, so hopefully it goes well.
The tricky thing in MT is its a state that leans Republican. Tester has done well and so have Schweitzer and Bullock but Montana is still like R+11. The more you nationalize the race the more the natural partisan lean of a state/district comes into play. And Trump won Montana by 19% so I don't know that he's that awesome of a millstone to drag down the GOP. Bernie coming to campaign for Quist might energize the Dem side but Montana was weaker than expected for him (he won in the Dem primary 55-45) given the demographics so I'm not sure that will make a huge difference. In the Omaha mayoral Nebraska Dems blamed him for Mello losing because he nationalized the mayoral race (I'd guess unfairly or at the very least its an exaggeration but its probably true it wasn't a positive effect) and I don't know that any outside figure can really help.
I think its going to more be about the unpopularity of AHCA and Republicans in Congress and the candidates themselves. Quist isn't an awesome candidate but Gianforte is probably worse. Between those two factors it might be winnable with some luck
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Out of curiosity which rep was it? The only California special election I see is for CA-34 since Xavier Becerra is now CA AG and that election is looking pretty good for the Dems since both candidates are Democrats.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Mello losing was more that there is no longer any patience for anti-choice Democrats like him.
And the Republicans are now in full fearmongering mode up here - the last ad I saw was all "ISIS! North Korea! Democrats want to weaken the military! Boo!" I'm thinking the domestic stuff wasn't getting the traction they wanted.
Of course it wasn't getting any traction since it lead right back to the GOP. When dodging bullets it helps to not be firing them at yourself.
Oh, that's what it was. Maybe i was confusing it with another district, in another state, where somebody got arrested.
They'll probably run people in most seats. In 2016 there were only a couple dozen seats Dems didn't contest, mostly but not all places that are very Republican, the sorts of places you wouldn't expect to win even in a very big wave year. And the DNC is moving back towards the fifty state strategy, so we'll likely see greater effort to run candidates even in those districts. Sometimes it's difficult, though. Texas 13, for example, is very red (R+32). Obama got about 18% of the vote in 2012. Given that there aren't even all that many Democrats in the district in the first place, how do you find someone who fits the legal requirements, would make a decent candidate, and is willing to throw away months or a year of their life away to run for an office they're almost certainly not going to win helped solely by a more or less non-existent local Dem apparatus? They can go outside the district, since the only geographic requirement is that you live in the correct state, but then they run afoul of carpet bagging claims (something thrown a lot at Ossoff in GA-6). Recruitment is a non-trivial task
That said, when they're talking about targeting, they're already almost certainly planning on running candidates in those districts. Targeting means things like sending money and operatives to those districts.
Hey you look like a dead eyed psychopath or moral busybody, want to be on the school board or town council?
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Oregon replaced a lot of school board/parks board members with Dems here and in my home town as well last week.
People are ready to run for those seats right now
PA-2 had our congressman get arrested, good old Chaka Fattah. But it was after he lost the primary last year, mostly due to the impending conviction.
Oh, I know. Dems managed to get enough seats to build a bipartisen coalition in the Alaska House.
Wow, thinking about this sort of nonsense makes me remember the absurdity of US state senatorial representation again. Considering Wyoming and Alaska, if we could get 150k people to move from Washington DC to those two states, we could make ourselves another couple of Hawaii's. Dark blue in-assailable democratic strongholds. We could pay them $5K apiece to do it and still have it only be like half of democratic spending for congressional elections in 2016.
Urgh, the US political system is insane.
even in liberal places like seattle there's been a real strong backlash against centrist dems
the city council is, I think, majority-progressive for the first time in ages
Politico reporter claims that GOP internal polling has them up by about 3 points for the Montana special this week.
Yeah, its a bit of a shame that we can't get a special election in a district where the R's have like a +7 advantage to see if our swing is actually working in districts where the Republicans might lose.
I do just love how you're all writing off where I live. Makes me feel like I'm a goose for living here and thinking that perhaps you don't understand what's happening here.
I mean I believe you Hedgie, but its hard to hope in Trump's america.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Gianforte already has lost one election that was supposed to be his for the taking. The dark money ads stopped trying to sell him a month ago. Ultimately, elections are about turnout and base motivation, and I think that is going to be on short supply for the right.
edit:
additionally, I don't think anyone here is hoping you're wrong. we're just living in the aftermath of what rural america just did to us, and i'd rather not be fooled again. November was a very bad month for me.
But uh.. that was before last week.
The poll internals show near unanimity among Democrats and Dem leaners, while Handel only gets 75% of Republican leaners and 30% of true independents. Holy shit if true.
The Dems would win 300 seats if they had that kind of movement nationally.
I dunno if we can maintain that until 2018, but god I hope so.
Keep in mind that Wisconsin was gerrymandered to hell at the time.
Was.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
The question is, can Trump, Ryan, McConnell, and Sessions all manage to continue being the biggest assholes in the world for 12 months straight?
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I am not sure they are physically capable of not doing so.
Like, pretty sure Ryan needs attempting to kick poor people off of healthcare in order to properly process oxygen.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
McConnell is at 100 months running, so presumably he's fine.
pleasepaypreacher.net