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[US Federal Congressional Elections 2018] Tester Wins, AZ/FL Too Close

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Posts

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Fixed it above. Sorry about that. Who the fuck doesn't put your legend as part of the picture? Seriously NYT?

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  • AstaerethAstaereth In the belly of the beastRegistered User regular
    North Carolina is not really a democracy.

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  • A Kobold's KoboldA Kobold's Kobold He/Him MississippiRegistered User regular
    Okay, reading the article, all of the little people are seats in the house of representatives that are held by Pubs. Red figures mean that they stayed red, blue figures mean that flipped to blue, and yellow is still currently too close to call. The x axis is how much they voted for the Republican candidate in presidential election years. So the metaphor the graph is working with is, "if we take all the Pub seats in the election and organized them by how red they ware, if we consider this stack as a beachhead, how high did the wave reach?"

    And it reached all the way to Oklahoma, which is +10. The white bars are increments of +5.

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  • Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister It Gets Worse before it gets any better.Registered User regular
    Astaereth wrote: »
    This is the coolest fucking graph:



    Harris is a journalist at Vulture and other places

    Heheheh there's even one in Wyoming! Woo! :D

  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    I took Pelosi out of the thread title and we can all stop talking about what a horrible/great person she is now

    Thanks

  • Shazkar ShadowstormShazkar Shadowstorm Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Fixed it above. Sorry about that. Who the fuck doesn't put your legend as part of the picture? Seriously NYT?

    All their infographics the text isn’t actually part of the image file

    poo
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Astaereth wrote: »
    North Carolina is not really a democracy.

    Well, the legislature doesn’t have a veto proof supermajority anymore, and the “establish a one party politburo” amendments both failed miserably, so I guess it’s moving in a little d democratic direction.

  • BaidolBaidol I will hold him off Escape while you canRegistered User regular
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

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  • GyralGyral Registered User regular
    Astaereth wrote: »
    North Carolina is not really a democracy.

    Well, the legislature doesn’t have a veto proof supermajority anymore, and the “establish a one party politburo” amendments both failed miserably, so I guess it’s moving in a little d democratic direction.
    Considering they were forced to get rid of the infamous District 12, they'll slowly being dragged forward, one midterm at a time.

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  • archivistkitsunearchivistkitsune Registered User regular
    Something I think we all forget about from time to time. Is that the investigation powers of the House, aren't just limited looking into the shit show that is the current Trump Admin. Those powers also let them look into any shenanigans going on with the courts as well. I mean they wouldn't be able to impeach members of the judiciary if they couldn't investigate that branch of government. So that should be making fuckers like Kavanaugh rather nervous giving how fucking fishy his financials look. It will also force some of the more strategic republican fuckers in the Senate to actually do proper vetting, so they don't give the democrats a very nice bludgeon to use against them. Sure the Senate GOP might opt to keep the really fucking corrupt judges around, but then you can get them on record an beat the shit out of them in the court of public opinion for doing so.

    Plus, doesn't that mean if Hunter, Collins and Nunes get convicted of anything, that the next speaker can move to expel them. I doubt the next Republican shitbird leading the rat fucker caucus of the house would do so for rather shitty reasons.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Just to reiterate how winning the Senate was never in play, it appears to have been a D +7 or +8 environment, and the tipping point for winning the Senate would have been Indiana, which was lost by a full 7.9 points. It's not a perfect proxy, but that would indicate it would have taken D+16 to get to 51.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    You need 2/3 to expel don’t you? Although they might go for that if the alternative is having a member serve a term in prison.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Just to reiterate how winning the Senate was never in play, it appears to have been a D +7 or +8 environment, and the tipping point for winning the Senate would have been Indiana, which was lost by a full 7.9 points. It's not a perfect proxy, but that would indicate it would have taken D+16 to get to 51.

    That is fucked

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Just to reiterate how winning the Senate was never in play, it appears to have been a D +7 or +8 environment, and the tipping point for winning the Senate would have been Indiana, which was lost by a full 7.9 points. It's not a perfect proxy, but that would indicate it would have taken D+16 to get to 51.

    That is fucked

    That is emblematic of how bad the map was this time.

  • milskimilski Poyo! Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.

    Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).

    Wow that could give a ton of votes potentially to the dems
    Phasen wrote: »
    Florida why you gotta do this to me?

    The chads are not going to hang themselves haha. I hope they can get their voting stuff sorted out I am curious how many broward votes this effects because that could be pretty big for the dem candidates.

    "The chads are not going to hang themselves" sounds like a threat because I've been watching too many deep dives on incels lately...

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  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    Washington is finally updating their ballot counts. Eighth district at 68% with the gap widening in favor of Schrier(D), 53.2 to 46.8.

  • PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    The latter especially. There's still a strong inverse relationship between Democratic voting and income
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    It'd be nice if we had it by race and income but I haven't found that.

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    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Not fair. There's a whole foods like three blocks from where I live.

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    To go with above Nate Cohn did a good job writing this up as well.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/upshot/2018-midterms-blue-wave-democrats.html

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    How do I read this?

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    You're muckin' with a G!

    Do not engage the Watermelons.
  • ColanutColanut Siedge WealdRegistered User regular
    edited November 2018
    New Mexico Democrats did really well top to bottom and now we still are waiting for the full count for House District 2 (Pierce stepped down for his Gov run). Yvette Herrell (R) holds less than a ~2000 vote lead over Xochitl Torres Small (D). Southern New Mexico should not have been this close, and there are still 8000 votes to be counted. It is still a Democratic long-shot (not so long now).

    https://www.abqjournal.com/1243372/outcome-of-cd-2-race-up-in-the-air.html

    The interesting thing is that Herrell is the last high profile Republican still standing in the whole state if she wins. Nearly all the other federal and state Republican candidates fell- even the land commissioner which was thought to be a given. Even long standing ABQ city councilors trying other offices were turned out. The GOP in NM will have a lot of rebuilding to do and the Democratic Party is finally growing its bench.

    Also roughly 50% of eligible voters turned out.

    Final edit: A huge election for women candidates.

    Oh, snap, SoS web site has Torres Small up ~2700 votes as of 6:23 PM. Ok, no more looking until tomorrow.

    Colanut on
  • OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    It's more than Whole Foods tend to be in either urban, or relatively dense and well-educated suburban areas (i.e. at least not right at the border of 'rural')--and that's exactly the kind of place Democrats massively overperformed this election.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    If Andy Kim holds his lead New Jersey will have gone from having 5 Republicans in their House delegation to just 1.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Of the outstanding Arizona Ballots apparently 475,000 of them are from Maricopa County according to one Garrett Archer I do not know how reliable he is though. Just seeing it reported and linked elsewhere.

  • minor incidentminor incident expert in a dying field ---Registered User, Transition Team regular
    Andy Kim winning would be incredible, because fuck MacArthur straight back to the hole he crawled out of.

    Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
  • PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    NM2 was even called R yesterday I think

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  • HakkekageHakkekage Space Whore Academy summa cum laudeRegistered User regular
    I'm so so so happy for Andy Kim. I was bummed this morning. Found out a few hours ago he pulled ahead in the absentee ballots. Fuck yes Andy

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  • minor incidentminor incident expert in a dying field ---Registered User, Transition Team regular
    edited November 2018
    We had a huuuuuge VBM push for Kim. Just a ton of hard working volunteers convincing their friends, family, and neighbors and getting them to mail in their ballots, and it fucking worked. Mail in ballots apparently pushed him over the edge.

    That's how you democracy, folks. Super proud of everyone that put the effort into making that campaign happen.

    minor incident on
    Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
  • PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    I know several of you were interested in this one

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  • AtomikaAtomika Live fast and get fucked or whatever Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

    The "base" here might be the ones who think Trump is a gift to the world from Jesus.

    My family were "Clinton Republicans" until W.

    I noped out exactly after I heard "Axis of Evil" and my dad noped out after the WMDs were shown to be a lie, and now I lean toward socialist.

    Buuuut, I wouldn't focus much energy on conversion. Just make the information easily available and answer questions if you feel up to it.

    Slown burn efforts, definately, but horrible things are happening now that won't unhappen so we can't wait for the turnaround.

  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular

    I swear to god, if my vote is tossed out...

    Also, this:
    Early results show McSally with a slight advantage. The next major results update isn't expected to come until 5 p.m. Thursday.

    AZ, you are killing me here.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    "We didn't quite manage to cheat enough before the election, so we're gonna fix that right now."

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

    Sweet, we just need to get 80 million Republicans to join Penny Arcade.

    I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
  • The Dude With HerpesThe Dude With Herpes Lehi, UTRegistered User regular
    The gap between McAdams and Love here in the 4th in Utah (my district) is getting such that Love's hope for the gap to close is looking pretty damn unlikely.

    While I guess it'll be nice to have a Democrat back in Matheson's old seat, and it appears that the ballot measure to implement an independent districting board will pass; it feels a little hollow when I can't help but think the fact he's a white man played as much, if not more, into his win, than any policies or his party.

    Even Matheson was barely a Democrat, but this guy ran on what would have been unquestionably a pre-2008 Republican platform. And not even center, but pretty firmly on the right.

    That he beat the only black female republican congresswomen in the country, from a state that is overwhelmingly white; feels just a tad dirty. :(

    Which isn't to say that Love was good. She didn't do much but be a token for the party and (to her credit, in action, but sullied it by making it about her later) helped get a hostage back from Venezuela. Then she did some shady fundraising shit with the primaries and was unpopular enough to not hold onto the seat. I guess she did present the bare minimum criticism to Trump's "shithole" comment.

    Regardless, Utah did some good. Votes aren't fully tallied and Friday is when they expect to be able to give mostly final numbers (assuming things aren't within recount margins), but it appears pretty clearly that medical marijuana was passed, a good chance that the proposition to form an independent districting committee will pass, which the state desperately needs after Republicans utterly fucked over the 4th district in order to force Matheson out. Medicare expansion passed, and a Democrat retook the 4th. Romney was a shoe-in but I dunno, I'm actually kind of at peace with that. I have no love for Romney, but even if it is out of self interest, he has been willing to attack Trump, and their history puts them immediately at odds. Maybe he'll lose his spine immediately, I dunno, but he did put out a statement yesterday critical of Trump, so....? He's a carpetbagger and ran/won on name alone, but it's going to be some time before Utah can make any decent progress moving away from the stranglehold Mormon (fuck the demand by the church to use "LDS") names and such have on the culture and influence. Romney certainly isn't going to vote against Trump or the party; but his self interest may actually ultimately be...helpful? Maybe not the right word, but if he votes with his party to keep the peace with other Republicans while publicly being a "sane" counter to Trump; with his visibility and name recognition, he could easily position himself for party leadership or even another run at the White House. Basically what Flake is/was trying to do, but a higher chance of success. Maybe. I think even Romney may underestimate what the Republican party has created with their base. Utah doesn't have as much, overtly at least, radicalization as you see in some southern states and other areas, but the relative moderacy Romney could think still exists simply might not anymore. We shall see at least.

    So it was a generally positive election in Utah, or at minimum a fully expected election with regards to Romney. Hopefully the public holds the state legislature to task and doesn't let them undermine the vote by either finding reasons to not, or horribly mangling the propositions that passed.

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  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    I know several of you were interested in this one

    WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

    FIRST DEM REP IN MY LIFE!

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

    Sweet, we just need to get 80 million Republicans to join Penny Arcade.

    Eh, and Spool32 was never actually ‘the base’ from the moment he joined. He was always willing to have a back and forth discussion about things. If we convinced him of anything, it was that democratic policies were better aligned with his own beliefs (economic and personal freedoms, a free and fair market etc. spool32 shows why republicans are so desperate to isolate their voters from democratic ones and prevent a pleasant conversation happening.

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