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[2018 State and Local Elections in the US] Dems Pickup MI, WI, IL, KS, NV, NM, ME
enlightenedbum
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
MOD MESSAGE:
Please review the rules for this forum. Politics thread rules here. General rules here.
On political organizing: PA is not a place to logistically organize folks for specific campaigns or causes.
Okay to post: your personal experience phone banking/knocking doors, a link to a candidate's website so people can go there to learn more info, posting about who you are voting for or donating to.
Not okay to post: calls to organize people to volunteer for specific campaigns, discussing within this thread about meeting up to volunteer/protest, posts attempting to recruit volunteers or garner donations. Specific organizing discussions should take place off PA.
Election threads are notoriously hard to moderate. If you are a person breaking or skirting the rules and repeatedly making this thread difficult to moderate, you can be kicked and/or infracted. Follow ze rules. Have fun.
YOUR FRIENDLY GUIDE TO WATCHING ELECTION NIGHT
https://www.danielnichanian.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Elections-tracker-Nov5.pdf
There's a pdf with a ton of races to watch.
When does [insert state here] close?
(Ignore the date. Closing times are right)
First of all, here are closing times all over the country. Most of Indiana (except Gary) and Eastern Kentucky close first. Kentucky's Sixth District is therefore our first contested race to close. If the Democrat, Amy McGrath, wins there, we're in really good shape. Currently that's a lean GOP seat to 538, giving her a 3/8 chance of taking it.
Major statewide races closing at 7 eastern include: Indiana Senate and Georgia governor. We'll also start seeing returns in Florida, but that race won't be characterized until the panhandle closes at 8 eastern.
Where should I watch?
Here.
Cable news is dumb and you shouldn't watch it. There are some great college basketball games on Tuesday night, maybe watch those instead. If you're a glutton for punishment, MSNBC is probably the least groanworthy, depending on if Brian Williams or Chris Matthews or Rachel Maddow is their primary anchor. Online, the Times does a really good job with election returns, I would focus on them or whatever state you want to know stuff about's secretary of state's office. Though some of those kind of suck, frankly. But definitely here, there will be several people who are examining counties and tracking the twitter accounts of people who know even better which counties to look at.
I'm going to watch TV anyway, what should I know?
The major networks are going to work to "characterize" each race as the polls close. This is done based on polling before hand, the general political attitudes of the race in question (a congressional district in Brooklyn can safely be assumed to be Democratic, for example), but mostly on exit polls. EXIT POLLS ARE NOT GOSPEL, though they can give us an indication as to how things are going. There are three major classifications:
1) TOO CLOSE TO CALL - Exit polls indicate the race is close, usually within 5 points either way. The media organizations need to see more actual votes to determine who is going to win. In races we are pretty sure are very close, like Missouri Senate or Georgia Governor, expect to see this classification until a significant majority of the vote is in.
2) TOO EARLY TO CALL - There is not yet enough information to make a call. If they are willing to say "too early to call, candidate X leading" that usually indicates that candidate is leading by 5-9 points in exit polls. I would anticipate this kind of call in say, the Midwestern Senate races.
3) INSTANT CALL - The race is called when the polls closed. This indicates a blowout, probably a double digit win. If you don't see this characterization for say, Tim Kaine, something has gone very wrong for Democrats. Conversely, if you DO see this for Stabenow or Baldwin, that's good news.
Who should I follow on Twitter?
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw - just in general, you should follow Southpaw.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm - TPM head, they'll probably be tracking shenanigans closely, that's usually their beat. Also a smart analyst.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn - NYT polling person, head of Upshot, owner of the dreaded arrow of doom
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538 - is Nate Silver
https://twitter.com/Taniel - pays extremely close attention to down ballot stuff, especially referenda, especially those on voting rights.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict - calls races accurately
Where should I talk about it?
In our two threads, try to keep track of which one you're in, though I know we're going to mess that up a lot. The mods have also asked that we keep the liveblogginess of election day down, so it's not just a ton of posts that look like "GILLUM!!!!!!!!!!" or "OH FUCK YOU FLORIDA!!!!"
If you would like to have those reactions, SIG recommends the D&D Discord, which you can find here.
What are expectations like, 48 hours out?
Consensus is that Democrats are likely to take the House. They need 23 pickups. Expectations are somewhere from 30-40. A polling error in the GOP's favor could let them keep the House though. Democrats are likely to win the total Congressional vote by a significant margin (high single digits), but gerrymandering is likely to keep the by district margin close.
Consensus is equally strong that the GOP is going to retain the Senate. A 50/50 Senate (Dems pick up one seat) is maybe the most likely individual outcome. A systemic polling error for Democrats is required for them to win. The most likely path to a majority at this point is a Beto miracle.
Democrats should pick up a number of Governor's mansions. Michigan, New Mexico, and Illinois are probably pickups. There are a bunch of toss ups. We're following Florida and Georgia especially closely.
Gubernatorial Elections
Dark red is incumbent GOP governor who is running, light red is incumbent GOP governor who is not running, light blue and dark blue are the same for Democrats.
Unlike the Senate, Democrats have lots of chances of pickups with that map. Let's highlight some key races:
Georgia
Brian Kemp, the Republican Secretary of State vs. Stacey Abrams, the minority leader in the state House until 2017
This is a surprisingly close race for the deep south, with the two most recent polls showing a two point race, one with each candidate in the lead. Abrams is the first black woman to ever win a major party's nomination for governor in any state, and would be the first black female governor of any state. It's still Georgia, so Kemp should be the favorite.
Florida
Ron DeSantis, second largest beneficiary of Russian hacking, vs. Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee.
Gillum won a surprising primary victory as the anti-establishment leftist. He's also young and black and has had good success turning out students and black voters. DeSantis managed to use a racial slur on literally the first day of the general election, so Florida is still Florida.
Maine
Shawn Moody, Republican businessman and former independent candidate vs. Democratic Attorney General Janet Mills
Also two other dudes are running, because this is Maine, so somebody has to spoil things so a minority of the vote wins. Ranked choice voting will not apply yet for this because the Maine Supreme Court said so. Anyway, Dems are trying to win this after 8 years of the odious Paul LePage. Polling thus far says this one is a toss up.
New Hampshire
Looks likely to re-elect Chris Sununu. Stupid New Hampshire. The primary is on September 11, former state Senator Molly Kelly is considered to be the favorite.
Vermont
Incumbent Republican Phil Scott vs. Democratic businesswoman Christine Hallquist
Scott is one of those popular Republican governors in New England. Hallquist is running on taking another shot at statewide single payer. She is also the first transgender major party nominee for governor anywhere in the US.
Massachusetts
Incumbent Charlie Baker is another popular Republican governor in New England. His opponent will be determined in the primary on September 4
Maryland
Incumbent Republican Larry Hogan vs. former NAACP head Ben Jealous
Jealous has failed to get the endorsement of some of the more moderate Democrats in the state, Hogan is the most popular governor in the country, this probably won't end well.
Michigan
Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette vs. former Senate minority leader Gretchen Whitmer
Schuette sucks, has a Trump endorsement, incumbent governor Rick Snyder has yet to endorse him after Snyder's preferred candidate lost the primary. Whitmer is very progressive, but got framed as not far left enough by her opponents, which might ironically be a good thing with Michigan's moderates? The GOP is attacking her as another Granholm, because blame women out of power for years is kind of their thing. Major question here is if the supporters of those progressive candidates coalesce around Whitmer in what should be a strong turnout year for Democrats.
Ohio
Republican Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine vs. former head of the CFPB Richard Cordray
DeWine won this same race for AG by 2 points in 2010. This is likely to be a much stronger year for Democrats, but Ohio is moving pretty far right. Sherrod Brown might be a big help for Cordary here, since he runs way ahead of where the Democrats usually do in Ohio.
Illinois
Incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner vs. Democratic billionaire JB Pritzker (of the Hyatt hotels Pritzkers).
Rauner is not popular, Pritzker has led every poll dating back a year, all but one of them by double digits. He should cruise to pick up this seat. For a billionaire, he's not terrible it looks like.
Wisconsin
Incumbent Republican Scott Walker vs. Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers
Walker is a union busting asshole. Evers is a former teacher, principal, and superintendent who has been elected statewide superintendent three times. He's running on Medicaid expansion, infrastructure development, and unsurprisingly better funding for both local schools and the University of Wisconsin system, which Walker has devastated. Evers has led most polling, but Walker leads in the Marquette University poll, which is generally regarded as the gold standard for Wisconsin.
Iowa
Incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds vs. Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell
I know almost nothing about this race. Selzer had Reynolds up a couple points in January and there aren't polls I can find after that.
New Mexico
Republican US Representative Steve Pearce vs. Democratic US Representative Michelle Lujian Grisham
Grisham is considered a fairly strong favorite with New Mexico's slight Democratic lean, it being a strong Democratic year nationally, and the incumbent being 8 years of Susanna Martinez, a Republican. New Mexico is probably majority Hispanic at this point (47% estimated in 2012, and rising fast), which is generally bad news for the GOP.
Nevada
Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt vs. Chair of the Clark County (Las Vegas) Commission Steve Sisolak
Toss up race, latest polls have Laxalt up within the margin of error. Polling tends to undercount Democratic performance in Nevada, possibly because of the large Spanish only Hispanic population. So who knows!
There are also a bunch of other races and some Democratic incumbents. Of those, Rhode Island and Connecticut are probably the most dangerous. Connecticut's incumbent Democrat is the least popular in the country so he's retiring. And Rhode Island politics are weird and comically corrupt, so who the hell knows.
State legislatures
(I think this map is slightly outdated, and Washington has become Democratic controlled via special election)
So that's not good. I'm not going to detail any specific races, but Democrats need to start winning the state legislatures back so they can control the redistricting process after the 2020 census. In some states, like mine, this is very hard because of the previous gerrymander. Which we'll get to in a second.
Local issues!
Your district attorney is a vitally important office. If you care about criminal justice reform that's maybe the most important race on the ballot for that issue. Progressive Democrats have been unseating a lot of incumbents around the country in the wake of Black Lives Matter, including this August in St. Louis itself, where the DA who declined prosecution in the Michael Brown case lost his primary. Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner is maybe the most prominent of these activists.
You are also welcome to talk about city council or mayoral elections in this thread, if you want.
BALLOT INITIATIVES
Every election year important issues are brought directly to the voters of various states. I will be writing up some of these as we go. I know @Jragghen usually has a great write up of the California initiatives. Here are some important ones I saw in a look through Ballotpedia.
Michigan
Redistricting Initiatives - Takes redistricting power away from the state legislature and puts in a commission with 6 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and 5 independents. Should prevent gerrymandering.
Marijuana legalization - Legalizes and taxes marijuana for recreational use for all Michiganders over the age of 21.
Paid sick time - Requires employers to provide paid sick time.
There is a potential minimum wage increase to $12, but it is still in the courts after the board of elections deadlocked 2-2 on it. Restaurant groups are fighting very hard against it.
Arizona
Clean Energy Initiative - Would require at least 50% renewable energy by 2030.
Arkansas
Term limits - the lobbyist empowerment act, gross
Photo ID voting - also gross
Colorado
Redistricting initiative - independent redistricting commission
Slavery (!) - repeals the exception that allows involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime
Education - tax increase to fund it
Prop 112 - Bans fracking within 2500 feet of water sources and certain buildings
Florida
Voting rights - restores the voting rights of felons upon completion of their sentence
Taxes - the dumb 2/3 requirement for tax increases law
Hawai'i
Constitutional convention - statewide constitutional convention is on the ballot.
Idaho
Medicaid expansion - what it says on the tin
Indiana
Balanced budget amendment - no, bad, Indiana
Louisiana
Unanimous juries - would require juries to return a unanimous verdict for conviction; this would be a change from the old white supremacist constitution
Maryland
Same day registration - would require the legislature to make that happen
Missouri
Medical marijuana legalization - straightforward enough
Minimum wage increase - to $12
Corruption - campaign finance reform, creates a "non-partisan state demographer" who is expressly mandated to assist a bipartisan committee to create competitive districts for elections, this is really weird and clunky
Nevada
Automatic voter registration - when you interact with the DMV, you get registered to vote
Clean energy - same deal as Arizona, 50% clean energy by 2030
North Carolina
Lots of crazy right wing stuff. Power grab by the legislature to neuter the Democratic governor, voter ID, knocking the highest possible income tax rate from 10% to 7%
North Dakota
Marijuana legalization - removes marijuana from the list of controlled substances and expunges convictions for marijuana possession
Ohio
Independent redistricting initiative
Drug possession and drug use become misdemeanors
Utah
Medical marijuana legalization
Medicaid expansion
Independent redistricting commission
So themes: LOTS of redistricting commissions and marijuana liberalization. There are also a lot of crime victims rights things on the ballot which seem non-threatening, started in California and Illinois in '09. "Marsy's Law"
Please review the rules for this forum. Politics thread rules here. General rules here.
On political organizing: PA is not a place to logistically organize folks for specific campaigns or causes.
Okay to post: your personal experience phone banking/knocking doors, a link to a candidate's website so people can go there to learn more info, posting about who you are voting for or donating to.
Not okay to post: calls to organize people to volunteer for specific campaigns, discussing within this thread about meeting up to volunteer/protest, posts attempting to recruit volunteers or garner donations. Specific organizing discussions should take place off PA.
Election threads are notoriously hard to moderate. If you are a person breaking or skirting the rules and repeatedly making this thread difficult to moderate, you can be kicked and/or infracted. Follow ze rules. Have fun.
YOUR FRIENDLY GUIDE TO WATCHING ELECTION NIGHT
https://www.danielnichanian.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Elections-tracker-Nov5.pdf
There's a pdf with a ton of races to watch.
When does [insert state here] close?
(Ignore the date. Closing times are right)
First of all, here are closing times all over the country. Most of Indiana (except Gary) and Eastern Kentucky close first. Kentucky's Sixth District is therefore our first contested race to close. If the Democrat, Amy McGrath, wins there, we're in really good shape. Currently that's a lean GOP seat to 538, giving her a 3/8 chance of taking it.
Major statewide races closing at 7 eastern include: Indiana Senate and Georgia governor. We'll also start seeing returns in Florida, but that race won't be characterized until the panhandle closes at 8 eastern.
Where should I watch?
Here.
Cable news is dumb and you shouldn't watch it. There are some great college basketball games on Tuesday night, maybe watch those instead. If you're a glutton for punishment, MSNBC is probably the least groanworthy, depending on if Brian Williams or Chris Matthews or Rachel Maddow is their primary anchor. Online, the Times does a really good job with election returns, I would focus on them or whatever state you want to know stuff about's secretary of state's office. Though some of those kind of suck, frankly. But definitely here, there will be several people who are examining counties and tracking the twitter accounts of people who know even better which counties to look at.
I'm going to watch TV anyway, what should I know?
The major networks are going to work to "characterize" each race as the polls close. This is done based on polling before hand, the general political attitudes of the race in question (a congressional district in Brooklyn can safely be assumed to be Democratic, for example), but mostly on exit polls. EXIT POLLS ARE NOT GOSPEL, though they can give us an indication as to how things are going. There are three major classifications:
1) TOO CLOSE TO CALL - Exit polls indicate the race is close, usually within 5 points either way. The media organizations need to see more actual votes to determine who is going to win. In races we are pretty sure are very close, like Missouri Senate or Georgia Governor, expect to see this classification until a significant majority of the vote is in.
2) TOO EARLY TO CALL - There is not yet enough information to make a call. If they are willing to say "too early to call, candidate X leading" that usually indicates that candidate is leading by 5-9 points in exit polls. I would anticipate this kind of call in say, the Midwestern Senate races.
3) INSTANT CALL - The race is called when the polls closed. This indicates a blowout, probably a double digit win. If you don't see this characterization for say, Tim Kaine, something has gone very wrong for Democrats. Conversely, if you DO see this for Stabenow or Baldwin, that's good news.
Who should I follow on Twitter?
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw - just in general, you should follow Southpaw.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm - TPM head, they'll probably be tracking shenanigans closely, that's usually their beat. Also a smart analyst.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn - NYT polling person, head of Upshot, owner of the dreaded arrow of doom
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538 - is Nate Silver
https://twitter.com/Taniel - pays extremely close attention to down ballot stuff, especially referenda, especially those on voting rights.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict - calls races accurately
Where should I talk about it?
In our two threads, try to keep track of which one you're in, though I know we're going to mess that up a lot. The mods have also asked that we keep the liveblogginess of election day down, so it's not just a ton of posts that look like "GILLUM!!!!!!!!!!" or "OH FUCK YOU FLORIDA!!!!"
If you would like to have those reactions, SIG recommends the D&D Discord, which you can find here.
What are expectations like, 48 hours out?
Consensus is that Democrats are likely to take the House. They need 23 pickups. Expectations are somewhere from 30-40. A polling error in the GOP's favor could let them keep the House though. Democrats are likely to win the total Congressional vote by a significant margin (high single digits), but gerrymandering is likely to keep the by district margin close.
Consensus is equally strong that the GOP is going to retain the Senate. A 50/50 Senate (Dems pick up one seat) is maybe the most likely individual outcome. A systemic polling error for Democrats is required for them to win. The most likely path to a majority at this point is a Beto miracle.
Democrats should pick up a number of Governor's mansions. Michigan, New Mexico, and Illinois are probably pickups. There are a bunch of toss ups. We're following Florida and Georgia especially closely.
Gubernatorial Elections
Dark red is incumbent GOP governor who is running, light red is incumbent GOP governor who is not running, light blue and dark blue are the same for Democrats.
Unlike the Senate, Democrats have lots of chances of pickups with that map. Let's highlight some key races:
Georgia
Brian Kemp, the Republican Secretary of State vs. Stacey Abrams, the minority leader in the state House until 2017
This is a surprisingly close race for the deep south, with the two most recent polls showing a two point race, one with each candidate in the lead. Abrams is the first black woman to ever win a major party's nomination for governor in any state, and would be the first black female governor of any state. It's still Georgia, so Kemp should be the favorite.
Florida
Ron DeSantis, second largest beneficiary of Russian hacking, vs. Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee.
Gillum won a surprising primary victory as the anti-establishment leftist. He's also young and black and has had good success turning out students and black voters. DeSantis managed to use a racial slur on literally the first day of the general election, so Florida is still Florida.
Maine
Shawn Moody, Republican businessman and former independent candidate vs. Democratic Attorney General Janet Mills
Also two other dudes are running, because this is Maine, so somebody has to spoil things so a minority of the vote wins. Ranked choice voting will not apply yet for this because the Maine Supreme Court said so. Anyway, Dems are trying to win this after 8 years of the odious Paul LePage. Polling thus far says this one is a toss up.
New Hampshire
Looks likely to re-elect Chris Sununu. Stupid New Hampshire. The primary is on September 11, former state Senator Molly Kelly is considered to be the favorite.
Vermont
Incumbent Republican Phil Scott vs. Democratic businesswoman Christine Hallquist
Scott is one of those popular Republican governors in New England. Hallquist is running on taking another shot at statewide single payer. She is also the first transgender major party nominee for governor anywhere in the US.
Massachusetts
Incumbent Charlie Baker is another popular Republican governor in New England. His opponent will be determined in the primary on September 4
Maryland
Incumbent Republican Larry Hogan vs. former NAACP head Ben Jealous
Jealous has failed to get the endorsement of some of the more moderate Democrats in the state, Hogan is the most popular governor in the country, this probably won't end well.
Michigan
Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette vs. former Senate minority leader Gretchen Whitmer
Schuette sucks, has a Trump endorsement, incumbent governor Rick Snyder has yet to endorse him after Snyder's preferred candidate lost the primary. Whitmer is very progressive, but got framed as not far left enough by her opponents, which might ironically be a good thing with Michigan's moderates? The GOP is attacking her as another Granholm, because blame women out of power for years is kind of their thing. Major question here is if the supporters of those progressive candidates coalesce around Whitmer in what should be a strong turnout year for Democrats.
Ohio
Republican Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine vs. former head of the CFPB Richard Cordray
DeWine won this same race for AG by 2 points in 2010. This is likely to be a much stronger year for Democrats, but Ohio is moving pretty far right. Sherrod Brown might be a big help for Cordary here, since he runs way ahead of where the Democrats usually do in Ohio.
Illinois
Incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner vs. Democratic billionaire JB Pritzker (of the Hyatt hotels Pritzkers).
Rauner is not popular, Pritzker has led every poll dating back a year, all but one of them by double digits. He should cruise to pick up this seat. For a billionaire, he's not terrible it looks like.
Wisconsin
Incumbent Republican Scott Walker vs. Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers
Walker is a union busting asshole. Evers is a former teacher, principal, and superintendent who has been elected statewide superintendent three times. He's running on Medicaid expansion, infrastructure development, and unsurprisingly better funding for both local schools and the University of Wisconsin system, which Walker has devastated. Evers has led most polling, but Walker leads in the Marquette University poll, which is generally regarded as the gold standard for Wisconsin.
Iowa
Incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds vs. Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell
I know almost nothing about this race. Selzer had Reynolds up a couple points in January and there aren't polls I can find after that.
New Mexico
Republican US Representative Steve Pearce vs. Democratic US Representative Michelle Lujian Grisham
Grisham is considered a fairly strong favorite with New Mexico's slight Democratic lean, it being a strong Democratic year nationally, and the incumbent being 8 years of Susanna Martinez, a Republican. New Mexico is probably majority Hispanic at this point (47% estimated in 2012, and rising fast), which is generally bad news for the GOP.
Nevada
Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt vs. Chair of the Clark County (Las Vegas) Commission Steve Sisolak
Toss up race, latest polls have Laxalt up within the margin of error. Polling tends to undercount Democratic performance in Nevada, possibly because of the large Spanish only Hispanic population. So who knows!
There are also a bunch of other races and some Democratic incumbents. Of those, Rhode Island and Connecticut are probably the most dangerous. Connecticut's incumbent Democrat is the least popular in the country so he's retiring. And Rhode Island politics are weird and comically corrupt, so who the hell knows.
State legislatures
(I think this map is slightly outdated, and Washington has become Democratic controlled via special election)
So that's not good. I'm not going to detail any specific races, but Democrats need to start winning the state legislatures back so they can control the redistricting process after the 2020 census. In some states, like mine, this is very hard because of the previous gerrymander. Which we'll get to in a second.
Local issues!
Your district attorney is a vitally important office. If you care about criminal justice reform that's maybe the most important race on the ballot for that issue. Progressive Democrats have been unseating a lot of incumbents around the country in the wake of Black Lives Matter, including this August in St. Louis itself, where the DA who declined prosecution in the Michael Brown case lost his primary. Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner is maybe the most prominent of these activists.
You are also welcome to talk about city council or mayoral elections in this thread, if you want.
BALLOT INITIATIVES
Every election year important issues are brought directly to the voters of various states. I will be writing up some of these as we go. I know @Jragghen usually has a great write up of the California initiatives. Here are some important ones I saw in a look through Ballotpedia.
Michigan
Redistricting Initiatives - Takes redistricting power away from the state legislature and puts in a commission with 6 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and 5 independents. Should prevent gerrymandering.
Marijuana legalization - Legalizes and taxes marijuana for recreational use for all Michiganders over the age of 21.
Paid sick time - Requires employers to provide paid sick time.
There is a potential minimum wage increase to $12, but it is still in the courts after the board of elections deadlocked 2-2 on it. Restaurant groups are fighting very hard against it.
Arizona
Clean Energy Initiative - Would require at least 50% renewable energy by 2030.
Arkansas
Term limits - the lobbyist empowerment act, gross
Photo ID voting - also gross
Colorado
Redistricting initiative - independent redistricting commission
Slavery (!) - repeals the exception that allows involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime
Education - tax increase to fund it
Prop 112 - Bans fracking within 2500 feet of water sources and certain buildings
Florida
Voting rights - restores the voting rights of felons upon completion of their sentence
Taxes - the dumb 2/3 requirement for tax increases law
Hawai'i
Constitutional convention - statewide constitutional convention is on the ballot.
Idaho
Medicaid expansion - what it says on the tin
Indiana
Balanced budget amendment - no, bad, Indiana
Louisiana
Unanimous juries - would require juries to return a unanimous verdict for conviction; this would be a change from the old white supremacist constitution
Maryland
Same day registration - would require the legislature to make that happen
Missouri
Medical marijuana legalization - straightforward enough
Minimum wage increase - to $12
Corruption - campaign finance reform, creates a "non-partisan state demographer" who is expressly mandated to assist a bipartisan committee to create competitive districts for elections, this is really weird and clunky
Nevada
Automatic voter registration - when you interact with the DMV, you get registered to vote
Clean energy - same deal as Arizona, 50% clean energy by 2030
North Carolina
Lots of crazy right wing stuff. Power grab by the legislature to neuter the Democratic governor, voter ID, knocking the highest possible income tax rate from 10% to 7%
North Dakota
Marijuana legalization - removes marijuana from the list of controlled substances and expunges convictions for marijuana possession
Ohio
Independent redistricting initiative
Drug possession and drug use become misdemeanors
Utah
Medical marijuana legalization
Medicaid expansion
Independent redistricting commission
So themes: LOTS of redistricting commissions and marijuana liberalization. There are also a lot of crime victims rights things on the ballot which seem non-threatening, started in California and Illinois in '09. "Marsy's Law"
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
enlightenedbum on
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This discussion has been closed.
Posts
So to the surprise of no one, it turned out the Republican candidate for Florida Governor is racist as heck.
According to Maddow various Democratic nominees running in their districts who used to be from public service (police, espionage, military etc) have had their security compromised with unredacted private security documents regarding being obtained and weaponised by their opponents and Paul Ryan's PAC.
Sorry, so should this go back to the other one then?
I'm just glad we're going to see severe consequences regarding this leak, both the government officials responsible, and the PAC for using it.
Just kidding. It'll be chalked up to a mistake, and nothing will happen.
On Florida: The governor's race there has Andrew Gillum as the Democratic candidate. He is black. There are some lovely robocalls that are making a very big deal of that fact. I'm not sure if that's going to help or hinder the Republicans.
In Massachusetts, Republican Governors are weak, because our state legislature has a 80% Dem majority, its not a unitary executive and its just designed to be on the weak side. Baker is unfortunately popular in part because of that, in part as a check against the Dem supermajority and in part because he's relatively moderate. Its more a case of him limiting the good the government can do instead of actively harming it like a certain someone who he is inevitably contrasted to (explicitly or not). He did not endorse the President.
I've landed on Jay Gonzalez. I was leaning Setti Warren before he dropped out, but had to really dig in on Gonzalez and Massie because I didn't know much about them, and put it off until last week. He's a son of an immigrant (Spanish, not Mexican as you might expect), was a Deval Patrick devotee, appears very charismatic, young, and handsome and is focused more on actually governing than making grandiose promises. He also has the endorsement of most of the smart Massachusetts liberal politicians I listen to (Michelle Wu and Steve Grossman have a good ideological range and pick good candidates), and if you have savvy politicians like Ed Flynn from (old school) Southie, Lydia Edwards from Eastie, Cyr from the Cape plus SEIU-NAGE and the AFL-CIO it says he has appeal to different parts of the party and state. He's not Latino per se but I would also expect some increased interest from that community since he is a Spanish speaker. He also has the endorsement of the Globe and the Democratic party.
Massie also looks like a generic old white guy (very much like Baker actually), was a Nader guy, has no experience holding a government position and the Herald endorsed him (a crap tabloid paper who is usually trying to fuck with Mass Dems). I like him on many issues (there isn't a huge gap there), but he tends to go too far into unachievable promises for me, and in a state where a Dem governor means you basically have free reign especially, I want someone who is going to promise the truth.
For SoS, you have incumbent Galvin and city councilor Zakim (the son of the guy the bridge is named after, not the guy). Zakim has some pretty (IMO) unfair ads out, but Galvin has been a good ally in fighting back against Trump and elections run pretty damn smoothly in Massachusetts. Zakim's positive argument is he'd be more aggressive in things like same day registration (which Galvin opposed for logistical reasons) and negative is that Galvin wasn't sufficiently socially liberal in his voting record in the state legislature in the 80s. Galvin's riposte that Zakim didn't even bother voting in 2004 or 2006 (in swing state Pennsylvania no less) and has no qualifications for the largely technocratic job. In contrast he points (more fairly I think) to Massachusetts not having the elections problems you see in most states and continual reforms such as early voting starting a few years ago back to being one of the first motor voter states.
Zakim's arguments aren't that swaying to me, and I think he's been pretty unfair in reality. If Galvin was someone who would go for higher office I might be more concerned with Galvin being less than ideally pro-choice (he is now, but in 83 he voted to symbolically outlaw it). Zakim is a City Councilor and has some of the Boston political infrastructure, but Galvin is considered an almost notoriously skilled politician. Had Zakim kept it relatively clean that might have swayed me.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Second, I know there are a few WI PAers out there and we really, really need to oust Walker. If you have any links to rallies or anything we can do to help Evers, post them here, please so I can help spread them.
Again, thanks @enlightenedbum
However, somoene ran a public poll in late July that showed incumbent Kate Brown was tied with Republican challeneger Knute Buehler at 45%.
Since then Buehler has been flooding the airwaves with anti-kate ads, and occasionally pro knute ads. Like damn, I don't watch much live TV anymore, but if I happen to switch over for live sports it's all KATE BROWN ABANDONED MENTAL HEALTH CARE, SCHOOLS, WOMEN'S RIGHTS, ALSO PROBABLY EATS BABIES I GUESS.
In the meantime Knute is running from the left, or at least the less right, claiming he's all about women's rights, abortion, birth control, and he's independent. His main push now seems to be that he will solve the homeless crisis in Oregon with "compassion and a little tough love," which mostly sounds like allowing cops to arrest homeless for sitting or laying on the sidewalk. Also more shelters but funding for that is of course error_file_not_found for now. Compassion is expensive, tough love is cheap.
Of course that poll in late July was the first poll in six months, and as far as I can tell there hasn't been one since, but let's not Scott Walker ourselves please please please please.
Everyone's "favorite" Secratary of State Kris Kobach is.
Not to mention that his opponent kicked his general election campaign off with a serenade of thinly disguised dog whistles, many of which are probably against forum rules to repeat.
Yeah - it was that bad.
The only lane of attack that Reynolds seems to have is to attack the fact that when Hubbell was younger he was an executive for a chain of department stores and they had to close a couple during the recession. Reynolds has had some of the fakest “real, concerned citizens” in her ads.
Hubbell has come out with a response ad where he comes clean about how they had to make the tough decision and close a couple stores, but those are the decisions you have to make when you run a business, or a state.
Coincidentally, the crime wave in Chicago that got all that national attention coincided with the lack of a budget funding anti-violence programs and is about a year away from getting back to 2012 levels. Same with the lack of funded scholarships to State Universities occurring around the same time fewer residents decided to enroll there for some reason. It is a mystery.
Don't have a ton of time right now, but quick summary of CA ballot measures.
* Three Californias - Supreme Court nixed it, we don't have to hear about this anymore.
* Housing bonds - $4 billion in bonds for housing projects and veteran home loans. Band-aid more than a solution, but I'm guessing it'll pass easily.
* Homeless housing - Authorizes legislature to use $2 billion from the millionaire's tax for homeless housing. See previous.
* Water bonds - $8.877 billion in bonds for environmental and water-related projects. Neither party has made an opinion on this one, but polling seems to favor support.
* child hospital bonds - $1.5 billion childrens' hospital bonds. It's a children-related prop, it'll probably pass.
* Property tax cut for baby boomers - this is the "this pisses me off, but I see where they're coming from" one. Housing is expensive in California. Boomers/older people are living in houses they previously bought which are family-sized, as two people, and are reluctant to move because their new house would have higher property taxes with the re-assessment (thanks Prop 13), so they're not moving. This prop makes it so they can take their fucking stupid low property tax to their new place, to free up housing more efficiently. I mean, I get it, but at the same time, fuck 'em. I can find no polling on this one.
* Repeal the gas tax - This will be the one you'll hear about, and exists primarily as a "shit we have to do something to get Republican turnout this year or we might lose the House" thing. Fuel tax passed in 2017 for infrastructure projects. This repeals that and requires voter approval for all future fuel taxes. SUSA had "repeal" winning in June, Probolsky Research (?) had support winning in August. This one will be the close one, of all of the.
* End Daylight Savings changes - This one has changed a couple times, and I know folks supporting/opposed have changed a lot too. Current format seems to be "go to DST permanently" as opposed to "legislature chooses." Regardless of the outcome, it would require a bill to pass Congress, as year-round DST is not currently permitted federally. Also, I don't know if people have fully internalized that would put us 4 hours off from DC for much of the year, and what that might mean for business, but whatever.
* Dialysis clinic fee restriction - I haven't looked into this one enough to properly commentate
* Rent control - Basically removes a restriction on municipalities from being able to enact rent control. It does not actually implement any itself. Expect this to be the OTHER one which gets all the attention.
* Ambulance workers paid and on call during meal breaks - description says it all. This is a terrible idea because if they're on call during meal breaks, everyone knows they won't actually get meal breaks because dispatchers will "save money" by reducing number of ambulance workers.
* Farm restrictions for other animals (building on the 2008 one) - Basically establishes a per-animal firm square footage which must be allotted.
I may not post updates in here as much as the CA thread now that we have one, but there's the highlights.
This is rather unsurprising - when you have been caught covering up a murder to protect your political position, you're not entering the election in a position of strength.
I'm not surprised. There were lots of calls over the weekend for him to resign, and as an outsider he didn't seem to be uniting the city. Of course, who knows how much of that was Rauner and the downstate Republicans, and/or the Chicago political machine (Which I don't know if he was part of or not).
Wait, what?!
He quashed the Laquan McDaniel video (the one showing a cop killing him outright) in the run up to the previous election.
ACAB
There's an easy fix for that, that if your break is interrupted for any official reason, it resets (ie, your time starts over). And if at the end of your shift, you haven't had a full break, you're paid for that time, at penalty overtime rates (1.5x your normal rate).
That way, they're on call in case of an actual emergency, but doing so not something you want to do, unless it IS an emergency.
Anyway, hope it fails for the exact reason you mention. Managers can't be trusted with that kind of flexibility.
We were going to have
$15 Minimum Wage
Paid Family and Medical Leave
Sales Tax Decrease and Tax-Free Weekend
But instead the legislature just said "OK" and passed them basically unanimously. Paid leave by 2020, Minimum wage going up 75 cent a year for the next 4 to get to 15
We do have
#1 Nurse-Patient Assignment Limits - Imitating the California initiative it would classify floors and set hard limits of nurse to patient ratios. Its pushed by the Massachusetts Nurses Association and opposed by most hospitals, the American Nurses Association and my wife the RN in a step down unit. The California initiative lead to higher costs but did not provide statistically significant clinical benefits.
My wife's argument against is it doesn't allow nurses to staff for acuity appropriately. Mine is more that if anything is ill-suited towards referendum, its exact professional regulations. The average Congressman, let alone voter, doesn't know appropriate staffing levels. If this was to form a regulatory agency for staffing levels I might support, but I am not qualified to make this call and neither is the average voter.
Question 2 is basically should we take a look at amending the US Constitution because Citizens United sucks. No brainer
Question 3 is should transgender be a protected class. Pretty simple one
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Crunch Crunch! Munch Munch! Chomp Chomp! Gulp!
Not terribly surprising, Graves was one of the last moderate Republicans in Kansas before they got purged by the Brownback contingent. Pretty sure there's still bad blood there.
Quinnipiac shows Gillum with a small lead in Florida as the general election starts.
(Goes in the other thread)
Cuomo's like a negative stereotype of a corporate establishment goose who has an iron grip on the machine politics in the region, while Nixon says all the right things yet looks out of her depth from an administrative standpoint. Plus, she's running like she's in the general - willing to take Cuomo out at all costs, oblivious to the consequences of a Republican governor running the state instead. Worse, she's making it personal.
It's disappointing how the race is turning into a corrupt vs useless competition. Nixon has many desirable goals she wants to enact, but without the planning and capability to connect politically behind the scenes this will be for naught if she becomes governor. And this is ignoring whatever Cuomo allies will be challenging her based on pure spite once she becomes governor.
Lot of deep blue states get run by people who act like its a swing state and they should be more scared.
Not sure about in D&D, but other than myself, I know of at least a few others.
And yeah, I heard that on the way home from work.
Hope she can beat Kobach, because Kobach is absolutely butts.
That's not fair. Butts serve a useful and necessary function.
Cuomo is likely partially worried, but I wouldn't call this scared. He has too much of an advantage, and since Cortez' victory is to be more on guard rather than being lazy and entitled. He's also more inclined to take her seriously since she's been trying desperately to make it personal. Which may cost her a position in his government if he wins the nomination and the general. Shifting influence to the left is excellent, but its a hollow second place to winning the primary itself.
True. Though that and being in danger of losing to a challenger like Nixon are two completely different things.
Of course Nixon's reputation will get blowback if she wins and is unable to implement her plans, especially if she can't outwit Cuomo's allies in the region who will want to make her look bad.
edit: To be clear if I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Nixon without hesitation.
940 has to do with police and deadly force
Initiative 940 would create a good faith test to determine when the use of deadly force by police is justifiable, require police to receive de-escalation and mental health training, and provide that police have a duty to render first aid. It would remove the requirement that prosecutors show that a law enforcement officer acted with malice to be convicted.
Initiative 1631 would establish a carbon fee and fund environmental programs. I don’t have the details on this one
Initiative 1634 would ban cities from taxing “groceries”. Under current state law, groceries are not taxed by the state but cities have the option to do so.
This initiative has been heavily advertised, and all the advertising scaremongers about families not being able to buy food because of potential taxes, but it’s actually being funded by major national beverage companies such as Coke, Pepsi, and Red Bull. Basically they’re afraid Seattle is going to tax sugary beverages and cut into their bottom line so they want to preemptively pass a law to prevent that.
Initiative #1639 would implement restrictions on the purchase and ownership of firearms. These restrictions include background checks, storage requirements, and waiting periods for purchasing semiautomatic assault rifles, as well as increasing the minimum age to buy semiautomatic assault rifles to 21.
The NRA has sued to keep it off the ballot, and they initially succeeded but the WA Supreme Court overturned that decision.
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
Hilariously, it also has led to a GoFundMe to put 2016 Trump tweets attacking Cruz on billboards.
Source
I mean, fuck that guy, but I don't think it's really that tough of a primary for him.