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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] My Better Brexit Deal Goes To Another School
Bogart
Streetwise HerculesRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
Streetwise HerculesRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
Credit for OP goes to RMS, I think. I dunno, it's been the same one for a while. So this archipelago
Has these nations.
These nations are almost completely (not) unique in that they're run by a system known as Politics!
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Run by these folk.
These folk would rather they didn't.
[img][/img]
The Issue
A spiffing place to keep up to date with the latest developments.
An Poblacht na hÉireann
I really need to start paying attention to the political situation down south, especially with that threatened and justified EU veto. It looked like there might be an election but now there isn't?
GeocitiesInConstruction.gif
A shockin' good place to see what the feck the craic is.
Blah blah blah Brexit Brexit Brexit.
Has these nations.
These nations are almost completely (not) unique in that they're run by a system known as Politics!
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Run by these folk.
These folk would rather they didn't.
[img][/img]The Issue
A spiffing place to keep up to date with the latest developments.
An Poblacht na hÉireann
I really need to start paying attention to the political situation down south, especially with that threatened and justified EU veto. It looked like there might be an election but now there isn't?
GeocitiesInConstruction.gif
A shockin' good place to see what the feck the craic is.
Blah blah blah Brexit Brexit Brexit.
Bogart on
0
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Larry the Cat, Chief Mouser.
LONDON PLAYBOOK: 5 days to go — What May does next
Their suggestion is that May takes Option 1, which does sound the most likely given May's history. Time and time again, rather than face up to reality, May has chosen to hide behind vague statements in order to postpone actual decisions. If Option 1 gives her that, she's done nothing to persuade me she won't try it. But then again, we appear to be moving through an unprecedented political situation in this country. You'd be a fool for thinking you know what to expect next.
Note: London Playbook is a daily briefing which is always worth a read on your commute.
AKA EU Lite.
Or "Shit remain"
Summary of the points of the article:
However, the UK would have no say in the rules and must adhere to the EU’s four freedoms: free movement of goods, capital, services and persons. This is probably the staunchest of May's red lines. Not only accepting the four freedoms, but being able to influence policy just seems impossible to navigate. Norway also isn't in the Customs Union which causes a problem for NI. So the UK would need to re-join the CU as well. This stifles our ability to forge our own trade deals. Another red line.
The question with this model is that if you're already in the EU why would you want the Norway option? It's all the elements of EU membership the UK is unhappy with, without the benefits.
I think there's political (as in parliamentary) support for being able to say "We've left the EU" , but also not say "We've blown up the economy doing it".
If you try and remain in the EU (which is obviously the option I'd prefer, and, I gather, the one preferred by the majority of parliamentarians), then there's a lot of awkwardness about not respecting democracy, will of the people, blah blah blah. It's tough to say that people didn't vote that way in 2016, or that they did and they were wrong. I can see the principled argument there too: in the face of a small democratic mandate, it's tricky to back out of.
The Norway option has the virtue of allowing MP's cover to vote for it, whilst also being as close to Remain as you can get. They can say "Well, we are leaving the EU" - and for once, use the ambiguity of "what the people voted for" as an advantage to work around the mouth-frothers on the Tory right.
Obviously, staying in the EU is materially the better choice, but it's a much, much harder sell politically, because of the godforsaken referendum we used to put ourselves in this position in the first place.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
The mod-ropolitan elite subverting the will of the people again.
The people all went and gatecrashed UKIP and hurt Nigel's feelings.
It may be our least worst choice compared to cancelling the whole deal, but it seems one of those compromises that achieves equality by pleasing nobody.
And anything that stops Freedom of Movement breaks Northern Ireland. Round and round we go.
Freedom of movement isn't really the issue for NI. The Common Travel Area covers off the ability to traverse the NI/UK border even if it becomes a "hard" border.
The NI issue is almost entirely a customs problem.
Looking around at the alternatives, it seems like none of the available options will fly, but N+ is the least likely to crash. Starting at the far end:
Basically, nothing is flying, which is why the while thing is such an enormous cluster. I reckon Norway+ is the one with the most chance of going in once the pressure really goes up, but..who knows.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
The BBC article I read on the subject mentioned sovereignty. Which I can understand keeping one from joining the EU, but does nothing to explain the Norway deal.
Latest poll still has him coming third in a two horse race to be the people's choice for the next PM.
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Hang on, he didn't ask one question about Brexit? What did he ask about?
which means it will almost certainly keep our net contribution to the eu the same (or possibly higher depending on what we opt into)
lel
1. Norway's market too weak to compete - There's a strong belief that if Norway ends up joining the EU, most of the primary sector (farming, OIL!, fishing) will lose a lot of money to cheaper European products. This of course means that due to Norway not joining, has higher food prices in comparison and has some big monopolies in the market.
2. EU's market ideology - The unions in Norway are pretty strong and there's a strong sense from older left parties that if Norway joins, some of the benefits that the unions have will be lost.
3. RAW RAW WE BE OWN BOSSES - Like all countries when nationalism comes into play, people get very conservative. "We have had it good so far, so let's keep this situation going" is a very strong belief to just status quo this shit.
So the Norway being in the EEA (European Economic Area), the EFTA (which Swittzerland is the only other member) and in the Schengen agreement, here's what Norway has agreed to so far:
The reason it kinda works in Norway is due to Nordic Council giving us a very strong connection with other nordic countries which are in the EU. Having large amounts of Oil and state majority control of the company that drills it which gives Norway a sorta safe money reserve (Currently at around 8346 billion NOK if This site is correct. It has enough money to cushion whatever market blows it incurs due to not being in the EU.
Power move
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its a super old decaying seaside town so hes sort of covering his booty
And they're not doing a great job as selling themselves here as the pro-Remain guys. Sure it's just one MP, but they only have twelve of them.
I suppose the only thing keeping the Greens from fighting over it is that they've only got one MP.
I'm sick of this spineless shit from MPs
Their main identity at this point seems to be the party that embraces a few single issues to show how unique they are, then betrays the public on those issues the moment they get in power. So, this pretty much is in-line with what the party is selling.
I do find it interesting that for a vote that nearly 50% of the population voted against there is no real coherent remain push that seems to be championed by any of the parties. Seems like maybe it is time for a new party to form if the will of almost half the population is silent.
The Tories are mostly against it because it's mostly their voters who wanted to Leave, so they don't want to upset their supporters, even though the vast majority know how bad its going to be.
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A bit. Something like 70% of Tory voters and 30% of Labour voters. This is from a vague memory rather than me checking the figures just now.
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People say that Leavers would never vote for a party that went with a Remain policy and I think that's untrue. Frank Fields is the archetypical Labour Leave guy, do you think he'll ever vote Tory? He'd die first.
A big part of that is that it makes a material difference whether you're talking about Labour members, voters, supporters, or constituencies. As the polling has got more sophisticated the picture has gradually emerged that Labour voters are not as gung-ho as some within the party seem to have assumed. I also vaguely recall that Labour leave voters are the most likely to have swung to remain, to the extent that any group of leave voters have changed their mind.
Edit: also their leader is a brexiteer