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[Dem Primary] — Debate July 30-31 — “For the love of God stop talking about 2016”

wanderingwandering Russia state-affiliated mediaRegistered User regular
edited July 2019 in Debate and/or Discourse
The first presidential primary debates have happened! They featured (in order of poll numbers as of June 21):

#1 Former senator and VP Joe Biden, who was an early supporter of marriage equality. (But should he be president? No, says Ta-Nehisi Coates.)

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#2 Senator Bernie Sanders, who won't stand for Trump's malarky, but will stand with workers.

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#3 Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has a plan for that. And that. And that:

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#4 Former mayor Pete Buttigieg (Boot-edge-edge), who is blandly likable (and gay).

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#5 Senator Kamala Harris, who is a woman with convictions.

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...Plus approx. 500 billion other candidates!

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Many of the candidates have already tackled the most pressing question on many American's minds:

What is your comfort food on the campaign trail?



(Apparently Gabbard is a vegetarian and Booker is a vegan?! As a cow this significantly impacts my vote.)


OPs are like presidential candidates: you can never have too many! Please enjoy this alternate OP from @enlightenedbum
TOO SOON, TOM PEREZ, YOU HAVE AWOKEN ME TOO SOON!

Welcome to ebum's massive candidate profile and debate preview. @wandering feel free to steal whatever you want for the OP.


The Debate

First let's talk about the debate format and how candidates were selected.

Debates are Wednesday and Thursday next week on MSNBC and 9 Eastern/6 Pacific. 10 candidates for each debate. Candidates were eligible if they could identify 65,000 unique donors or could point to three polls where they had 1% or more support. These same qualifications are for the second debates to be held in Detroit in late July. The third set of debates will require 130,000 unique donors AND at least 2% support in the polls, which should cut our number of candidates significantly (I would guess around 8).

Because we have 20 candidates, we obviously also needed five moderators, because this isn't going to be enough of a clusterfuck to start with. Those moderators are: Rachel Maddow, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Savannah Guthrie, and Jose Diaz Balart.

Candidates were split between the debates based on random draw, with the caveat that the top eight polling candidates were separated and split on their own to try to avoid a "kiddy table" debate like we had in 2016 on the Republican side. This didn't really work.

Who Are All These People?

Team No Debate For You

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Steve Bullock

Who is this person? Steve Bullock is the incumbent governor of Montana, who is being term limited out in 2020.
Campaign Website? stevebullock.com
Signature Issue? Fighting Foreign Money Influence Our Elections
Motto? A Fair Shot For Everyone
Should this person be running for Senate instead? DEAR GOD YES. Easily the strongest challenger for Senator Daines, whose seat is up in 2020. I know McConnell has made being a Senator miserable, but come on.
Who is this person popular with? Montanans keep electing him, so them. Also moderates and western Democrats like him a little.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everybody else. Though he does have enough donors to qualify for the second debate, so he might see the stage then.

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Seth Moulton

Who is this person? Seth Moulton, a young and VERY ambitious congressman from Massachusetts. Before he served in Congress he served in our various Middle Eastern adventures
Campaign Website? sethmoulton.com
Signature Issue? National Security
Motto? None visible on his website.
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No. Maybe if Warren wins. Maybe.
Who is this person popular with? I don't know, honestly. DC Consultants, maybe?
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Voters.

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Wayne Messam

Who is this person? Wayne Messam is the mayor of Miramar, Florida.
Campaign Website? wayneforusa.com
Signature Issue? Student Debt Relief
Motto? Change Can't Wait
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Florida State Senate maybe. This campaign is a joke.
Who is this person popular with? No one.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everyone.

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A couple teenagers who have hijacked a twitter account Mike Gravel

Who is this person? Mike Gravel is a retired Senator from Alaska, but I think this campaign is just a couple teenagers who have his twitter account and are posting memes.
Campaign Website? mikegravel.org
Signature Issue? Ending the American Empire
Motto? End the American Empire
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No.
Who is this person popular with? People who really like anti-war/DNC memes
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People who are not extremely online

TEAM ORANGE (AKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

(Presented in approximate order of polling success)

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Elizabeth Warren (full disclosure: I am a Warren donor)

Who is this person? Elizabeth Warren is the senior Senator from Massachusetts. Prior to her electoral career she was a Harvard professor, lawyer, and advocate for the middle class especially.
Campaign Website? elizabethwarren.com
Signature Issue? Ending corruption is the thing that ties all of her plans together. A wealth tax to pay for everything she wants to do.
Motto? None officially. Unofficially "She Has A Plan For That" and "She Persisted"
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Already there!
Who is this person popular with? People with a college degree
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People without a college degree

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Beto O'Rourke

Who is this person? Beto O'Rourke is a former Congressman from Texas who scared the pants off of Ted Cruz in last year's Senate race.
Campaign Website? betoorourke.com
Signature Issue? Climate
Motto? None that's obvious
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Yes. He's not a great candidate for the national Democratic Party, but he's a great candidate for the Texas Democratic Party. He should take a shot at Cornyn.
Who is this person popular with? People who like inspirational speakers, moderates, Texans
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Liberals, non-Texans

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Cory Booker

Who is this person? Cory Booker is the junior Senator from New Jersey. Before that he was the mayor of Newark, New Jersey.
Campaign Website? corybooker.com
Signature Issue? Baby bonds. OK, maybe not, but it's the one from him I think is most interesting. Give every child in America a bond when they're born that they get when they're 18. Studies have shown this would do a lot to help with the racial wealth gap.
Motto? Where There Is Unity, There Is Strength
Should this person be running for Senate instead? He's already there.
Who is this person popular with? Kind of weirdly, no one in particular. He seems like he should be a strong candidate and he's not. Has a big opportunity at the debates.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Black people would be a start.

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Amy Klobuchar

Who is this person? Amy Klobuchar is the senior Senator from Minnesota. Before that she was the DA for Hennepin County (Minneapolis)
Campaign Website? amyklobuchar.com
Signature Issue? Adding a public option to ACA
Motto? None
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Already there.
Who is this person popular with? Minnesotans. She's REALLY popular among Minnesotans. Consistently the most popular Senator in her home state in America.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Non-Minnesotans. Her staff.

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Julián Castro

Who is this person? Julián Castro is the former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Barack Obama. Before that he was Mayor of San Antonio, Texas. Not to be confused with his twin brother Joaquin, who is the Congressman from San Antonio.
Campaign Website? julianforthefuture.com
Signature Issue? The most radical immigration plan I've seen from a Democrat running for president. Also has a good housing policy and a strong lead removal policy.
Motto? People First
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Maybe. O'Rourke is the stronger candidate, but with him not running. I'd like him as Warren's VP, too.
Who is this person popular with? Nobody really so far, which is a shame.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everyone who isn't me.

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Tulsi Gabbard (Full disclosure: I loathe her, as will become clear)

Who is this person? Tulsi Gabbard is a Congresswoman from Hawai'i. Before that she served as a nurse in Iraq.
Campaign Website? tulsi2020.com
Signature Issue? Opposition to (some) wars
Motto? Aloha
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No. Hawai'i has great Senators.
Who is this person popular with? Robots
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Human beings

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Jay Inslee

Who is this person? Jay Inslee is the Governor of Washington state.
Campaign Website? jayinslee.com
Signature Issue? Climate
Motto? This is our Moment to Defeat Climate Change.
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Nah. He's running for the cabinet. Maybe the VP slot. But almost definitely the cabinet. EPA or Warren's new Economic Development spot.
Who is this person popular with? People who want a climate debate
Who does this person need to gain ground with? The DNC

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Tim Ryan

Who is this person? Tim Ryan is a Congressman from Ohio.
Campaign Website? timryanforamerica.com
Signature Issue? Rust Belt Restoration
Motto? Rebuilding the American Dream
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Possibly in two years. Somebody needs to take out Rob Portman. And Tim Ryan is a very Ohio friendly candidate.
Who is this person popular with? (White) blue collar midwesterners
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People who are not that

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Bill de Blasio

Who is this person? Bill de Blasio is the mayor of New York City.
Campaign Website? billdeblasio.com
Signature Issue? ??????? Roasting Joe Biden, so far?
Motto? A President Who Puts Working People First
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No.
Who is this person popular with? His family, I imagine?
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Literally anyone. Any single human.

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John Delaney

Who is this person? John Delaney is a former member of Congress from Maryland
Campaign Website? johndelaney.com
Signature Issue? Infrastructure
Motto? Focus on the Future
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Nah. Governor maybe.
Who is this person popular with? No one
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everyone

Debate analysis: So... this is basically the kiddie table with Warren. She's alone among the frontrunners here and will probably focus on explaining her plans and ignoring the rest of the people on the stage, unless it is to compliment them (she likes Castro's immigration plan, for example). The third tier candidates on this stage (Booker, O'Rourke, and Klobuchar) will be looking to create a moment where they break out. Booker and O'Rourke seem more naturally able to do that, charisma wise. Booker's going to get asked about Biden's comments re: segregationist Senators, and he's going to wish he was on the same stage as Biden for that. As will Warren, who somewhat obviously dislikes Biden and views him as part of the corrupt establishment she's running against. This debate is going to be weird, but it's going first, so that's a plus. Inslee and Castro will hopefully get time to talk about their signature issues. Gabbard... could fool some people because she talks about loving peace a lot and there's definitely an appetite for that in the Democratic Party, though I think all of these candidates will be anti-Iran War nonsense.

TEAM PURPLE (AKA THURSDAY NIGHT)

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Joe Biden

Who is this person? Joe Biden is the former Vice President of the United States and was a Senator from Delaware for 36 years before that.
Campaign Website? joebiden.com
Signature Issue? Everything Every Democrat Has Said Since 1980. "Restore America's Middle Class" and what not.
Motto? Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No.
Who is this person popular with? Old people. Black people, moderates.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Young people, liberals/leftists.

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Bernie Sanders

Who is this person? Bernie Sanders is the junior Senator from Vermont. Prior to that he served in the House and as the Mayor of Burlington.
Campaign Website? berniesanders.com
Signature Issue? An Economic Bill of Rights (Employment, health care, housing, education, freedom from monopolies)
Motto? Not Me, Us
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Already there
Who is this person popular with? Young people, the people who liked him last time
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Old people, the people who didn't like him last time, the people who hated Hillary more than they liked him last time

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Pete Buttigieg

Who is this person? Pete Buttigieg is the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. He previously served as an intelligence officer in Afghanistan. He would be the first openly gay presidential nominee.
Campaign Website? peteforamerica.com
Signature Issue? Medicare for All Who Want It; A genuinely terrible plan for SCOTUS
Motto? A Fresh Start for America
Should this person be running for Senate instead? He got crushed last time he ran statewide in Indiana...but yeah, probably
Who is this person popular with? People who fucking love The West Wing
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People who like some details with their vague inspirational empty vessels

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Kamala Harris

Who is this person? Kamala Harris is the junior Senator from California. Before that she was the Attorney General of California.
Campaign Website? kamalaharris.org
Signature Issue? Raise Teacher Pay...A Lot (I AM IN FAVOR OF THIS POLICY - ebum)
Motto? For The People
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Already there.
Who is this person popular with? Lots of people as a third choice.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People who have her as their third choice.

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Andrew Yang

Who is this person? Andrew Yang is a tech entrepeneur from New York.
Campaign Website? yang2020.com
Signature Issue? Universal Basic Income
Motto? Let's Disrupt the 2020 Election (OMG BARF)
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No.
Who is this person popular with? People who are into UBI, 4Chan
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People who are really scared of anyone popular with 4Chan which is to say right thinking people

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Kirsten Gillibrand

Who is this person? Kirsten Gillibrand is the junior Senator from New York. Before that she served as a Congressman in upstate New York.
Campaign Website? kirstengillibrand.com
Signature Issue? Women's rights.
Motto? Brave wins
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Already there.
Who is this person popular with? Some feminists. No one really. Failure to launch, probably because she reminds people of our 2016 nominee? I dunno.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everybody really. Pissy donors who loved Al Franken.

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Michael Bennet

Who is this person? Michael Bennet is the senior Senator from Colorado.
Campaign Website? michaelbennet.com
Signature Issue? Climate
Motto? Building Opportunity Together
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Already there.
Who is this person popular with? I'm not really sure? He's a bland white guy.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everyone.

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John Hickenlooper

Who is this person? John Hickenlooper is the former governor of Colorado.
Campaign Website? hickenlooper.com
Signature Issue? Generic white guy competency? It's unclear.
Motto? Stand Tall
Should this person be running for Senate instead? Yes, Cory Gardner is RIGHT THERE.
Who is this person popular with? I'm not really sure? He's a bland white guy.
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Everyone.

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Eric Swalwell

Who is this person? Eric Swalwell is a Congressman from California
Campaign Website? ericswalwell.com
Signature Issue? Gun safety.
Motto? Go Big. Be Bold. Do Good.
Should this person be running for Senate instead? If Kamala's the VP, maybe? Could take a shot at DiFi in 2024.
Who is this person popular with? I dunno
Who does this person need to gain ground with? Enough to qualify for the third debate. If he doesn't, he says he's withdrawing.

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Marianne Williamson

Who is this person? Marianne Williamson is an author, self-help guru, and philanthropist. Also a Friend Of Oprah.
Campaign Website? marianne2020.com
Signature Issue? "The Issues Aren’t Always the Issue"
Motto? Think. Love. Participate.
Should this person be running for Senate instead? No.
Who is this person popular with? Aging hippies?
Who does this person need to gain ground with? People who believe in vaccines, among many, many others.

Debate analysis
: Joe Biden wants to act like he's already won and will attack Trump a lot. His colleagues on stage will be attacking him for his variety of clusterfucks this week. Bernie especially, but everyone's taken a shot or two at him this week. The bottom half of this debate is full of weirdos and kooky characters like Yang and Williamson. Also two generic white guys from Colorado. Goal here is for everyone to put a dent in Biden so that he falls back to the rest of the pack. Harris has the biggest potential for a breakout, as Democratic voters like her, but they do not like her enough to be most people's favorites.

wandering on
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Posts

  • ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    If you'd like a somewhat better idea of a "starting position" going into these, check out iSideWith, it's a political survey. I think most of the questions are currently a bit older, from 2016 and 2018, as far as issues, but it'll give you a good read on where the candidates seem to stand now, going into the debates.

    Twitter! | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    For me the Democratic Primary is the beginning and end of tough decisions I have to make next year. Everything other choice as well be:

    "Do you oppose Fascism? Yes? Then vote Democratic!"

    That said, since Primary threads have thus far been verboten (this one is okay, right?), I haven't really had my finger on the pulse of things. I made a few comments about my impressions and my socialist friend lectured me for 30 minutes, so I don't feel confident in my knowledge at all.

  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    edited June 2019
    Hmmm I think I'd like one more governor with a short haircut to join the race before I make my decision about who to back

    But for real it's Warren. She's consistently impressed me and given me the slightest hope that something good could happen in the next four years. In a world that wasn't horrible, everything she came up with would be enacted. In this world... she did still manage to get the CFPB created during our current gridlock. And even though it has been absolutely gutted, it did well by a lot of people when it was functional.

    God damn do I wish like 15 of these candidates had run for Governor, Senator, House Member, Sheriff, City Council Member, HOA Head... anything else. It's gonna suck being a Democratic President in 2020 and part of the reason why is that these geniuses all thought they'd rocket into the public consciousness by being one of the photos that come with the frames.

    durandal4532 on
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  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Hmmm I think I'd like one more governor with a short haircut to join the race before I make my decision about who to back

    But for real it's Warren. She's consistently impressed me and given me the slightest hope that something good could happen in the next four years. In a world that wasn't horrible, everything she came up with would be enacted. In this world... she did still manage to get the CFPB created during our current gridlock. And even though it has been absolutely gutted, it did well by a lot of people when it was functional.

    God damn do I wish like 15 of these candidates had run for Governor, Senator, House Member, Sheriff, City Council Member, HOA Head... anything else. It's gonna suck being a Democratic President in 2020 and part of the reason why is that these geniuses all thought they'd rocket into the public consciousness by being one of the photos that come with the frames.

    I really like Warren's "I have a plan for that." A lot of government is just boring technocratic work, but it's important and makes a huge difference in people's lives. The charismatic, inspirational leader part is only a fraction of the job, but it's the only job requirement as far as the public is concerned.

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Hmmm I think I'd like one more governor with a short haircut to join the race before I make my decision about who to back

    But for real it's Warren. She's consistently impressed me and given me the slightest hope that something good could happen in the next four years. In a world that wasn't horrible, everything she came up with would be enacted. In this world... she did still manage to get the CFPB created during our current gridlock. And even though it has been absolutely gutted, it did well by a lot of people when it was functional.

    God damn do I wish like 15 of these candidates had run for Governor, Senator, House Member, Sheriff, City Council Member, HOA Head... anything else. It's gonna suck being a Democratic President in 2020 and part of the reason why is that these geniuses all thought they'd rocket into the public consciousness by being one of the photos that come with the frames.

    I have a short list that has Warren at the top where at this point I'd be happy with any of them at the top of the ticket.

    But I will be watching to see who does well under duress and manages not to self immolate over the next nine months or so.

    I'm not expecting anyone to actually be able to put Trump in his place since you can't clown a clown, but they need to not be steam rolled by him and that's where I worry about Warren and her ability to have presence on stage when there is a screaming toddler next to her.

    RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
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  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    Boot all the white dudes that felt compelled to run because they were bored.

    I'm looking forward to how Warren and Bernie handle themselves on the debate stage and how muddy this primary season is going to get. I'm sorry mods. Can we have a deadpool thread for people booted from this thread?

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    Phasen wrote: »
    Boot all the white dudes that felt compelled to run because they were bored.

    I'm looking forward to how Warren and Bernie handle themselves on the debate stage and how muddy this primary season is going to get. I'm sorry mods. Can we have a deadpool thread for people booted from this thread?

    No. Can people thinking they're likely to get booted not act like jackasses and prevent it happening in the first place?

  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Phasen wrote: »
    Boot all the white dudes that felt compelled to run because they were bored.

    I'm looking forward to how Warren and Bernie handle themselves on the debate stage and how muddy this primary season is going to get. I'm sorry mods. Can we have a deadpool thread for people booted from this thread?

    No. Can people thinking they're likely to get booted not act like jackasses and prevent it happening in the first place?

    I don't think I'll be booted. I just wanna make side money on people I think will be. It was a joke!

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    I hope I have the self control for this to be my only post in a primary thread this year

    Jesus Christ that’s a lot of candidates

  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    I don't know which one I'll go for yet, but my state's primary isn't until June 24th so I'm betting I will only have 2-4 choices by then anyway.

  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Its really this many choices for Iowa

    by the time their caucuses are done 3/4th of these people will have dropped out

  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    "I have no comfort food" is the worst possible answer though! You gotta eat garbage sometimes to feel better. Second tier worst answers are all those healthy choices. I can't trust someone who doesn't shove grease down their throat every once in a while.

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Its really this many choices for Iowa

    by the time their caucuses are done 3/4th of these people will have dropped out

    Yeah we'll be down to one stage by South Carolina if not sooner.

    RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
    Come Overwatch with meeeee
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    First choice is Liz Warren

    Dead last is Bernie

  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    Weirdest thing about this primary season so far has been all the Yang 2020 signs I see around NCSU. I didn't realize Yang was on anyone's radar.

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    I'm hoping after the first debate that this field narrows. Pretty sure, some of these people could then go run in another important race, some number of them were considered promising candidates for Senate seats that the democrats had a shot at picking up and IIRC it's not to late for them to run in those races. Currently, this field is just too big and a part of that has to do with just how shitty Trump is, making him an easier opponent to beat than others.

    Currently, I'm in camp Warren at this point because I mostly agree with what she has proposed.

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    edited June 2019
    First choice is Liz Warren

    Dead last is Bernie

    I was not a Bernie guy last time around but he'd have a shot at winning the rust belt for us and likely deny Trump a path to victory so he's not the last guy is see up there.

    My bottom three of people I actually know anything about are Gabbard, Booker and Buttigieg. But I don't know anything about a lot of them.

    RedTide on
    RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
    Come Overwatch with meeeee
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    edited June 2019
    wandering wrote: »

    Many of the candidates have already tackled the most pressing question on many American's minds:

    What is your comfort food on the campaign trail?



    (Apparently Gabbard is a vegetarian and Booker is a vegan?! As a cow this significantly impacts my vote.)

    Here's my fat-guy analysis of this (in bold):
    Warren: Chips and guacamole This is fine
    Harris: Fries Generic, but acceptable
    Gabbard: Vegan cupcakes Yeah, being vegan cuts your options...
    Buttigieg: Beef jerky Uh, weird, but at least unhealthy
    Gillibrand: Whiskey You're trying too hard
    Castro: Iced tea I assume Sweet Tea, but still. This is a drink, not a food
    Booker: Veggies Cory...just, no.
    Klobuchar: Baked Potato Not bad, but feels "forced Midwestern"
    Williamson: “I have no comfort food” This is the worst possible answer

    a5ehren on
  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    Also I feel like as a vegetarian, your comfort food can't be "also vegetables".

    Like you can even pick a specific one! "Celery and peanut butter, reminds me of my mom's house in elementary school" but just "Vegetables! That's what I eat!" is incorrect.

    Also it is very funny to me that Seth goddang Moulton joined, and immediately failed. His previous big swing this year being "Pelosi should be replaced! By... the mystery guest!"

    I feel like maybe Seth Moulton should calm down for a bit, I do not think he's super good at what he's trying to do.

    Take a moment to donate what you can to Critical Resistance and Black Lives Matter.
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Phasen wrote: »
    Weirdest thing about this primary season so far has been all the Yang 2020 signs I see around NCSU. I didn't realize Yang was on anyone's radar.

    I think he's the only one talking about UBI/etc. Trying to be left of Bernie, which definitely appeals to the college crowd once they hear of him.

  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    edited June 2019
    The Gillibrand choice is a tip top choice. Number one pick in Trump 'Merica.

    Phasen on
    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Dis gonna be good.

    The Democratic primary this year will be more bloody than the 2016 GOP primary. That's just facts.

    That out of the way, this time, the "candidate that can win" is the one that can avoid getting obliterated by Trump and the MSM doing a caricature of him. So far that's mostly Sanders, though that can change. Also, finally a thread for Biden's fuckups:
    Joe Biden’s paean to a bygone era — during which he spoke wistfully about working collegially and civilly with racists to find areas of common ground — seems destined to enter this pantheon of campaign-defining gaffes. “I was in a caucus with James O. Eastland. He never called me 'boy,' he always called me ‘son,’” the 76-year-old, who served 36 years in the Senate, told donors in New York on Tuesday night.

    Eastland, a Mississippi senator who owned a cotton plantation, described African Americans as an “inferior” race and warned that integration would lead to “mongrelization.” Biden also mentioned Herman Talmadge, the notorious Georgia segregationist who blockaded progress on civil rights for decades.

  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    edited June 2019
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Dis gonna be good.

    The Democratic primary this year will be more bloody than the 2016 GOP primary. That's just facts.

    That out of the way, this time, the "candidate that can win" is the one that can avoid getting obliterated by Trump and the MSM doing a caricature of him. So far that's mostly Sanders, though that can change. Also, finally a thread for Biden's fuckups:
    Joe Biden’s paean to a bygone era — during which he spoke wistfully about working collegially and civilly with racists to find areas of common ground — seems destined to enter this pantheon of campaign-defining gaffes. “I was in a caucus with James O. Eastland. He never called me 'boy,' he always called me ‘son,’” the 76-year-old, who served 36 years in the Senate, told donors in New York on Tuesday night.

    Eastland, a Mississippi senator who owned a cotton plantation, described African Americans as an “inferior” race and warned that integration would lead to “mongrelization.” Biden also mentioned Herman Talmadge, the notorious Georgia segregationist who blockaded progress on civil rights for decades.

    I'll reserve some thoughts on Biden as I think he will burn his own campaign to the ground, but he is probably my last choice of the people that are actually running for president.

    Phasen on
    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • jkylefultonjkylefulton Squid...or Kid? NNID - majpellRegistered User regular
    I will definitely vote for Warren in the MI primary, and hope to vote for her in the general election.

    I look forward to a replay of this exchange during the debates:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=InVvVzprIxQ

    tOkYVT2.jpg
  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Phasen wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Dis gonna be good.

    The Democratic primary this year will be more bloody than the 2016 GOP primary. That's just facts.

    That out of the way, this time, the "candidate that can win" is the one that can avoid getting obliterated by Trump and the MSM doing a caricature of him. So far that's mostly Sanders, though that can change. Also, finally a thread for Biden's fuckups:
    Joe Biden’s paean to a bygone era — during which he spoke wistfully about working collegially and civilly with racists to find areas of common ground — seems destined to enter this pantheon of campaign-defining gaffes. “I was in a caucus with James O. Eastland. He never called me 'boy,' he always called me ‘son,’” the 76-year-old, who served 36 years in the Senate, told donors in New York on Tuesday night.

    Eastland, a Mississippi senator who owned a cotton plantation, described African Americans as an “inferior” race and warned that integration would lead to “mongrelization.” Biden also mentioned Herman Talmadge, the notorious Georgia segregationist who blockaded progress on civil rights for decades.

    I'll reserve some thoughts on Biden as I think he will burn his own campaign to the ground, but he is probably my last choice of the people that are actually running for president.

    The media wants Biden in the worst fucking way and while he would be far from our worst chance or worst policy maker, he will throw cold water on multiple sections of our base in the worst fucking way.

    RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
    Come Overwatch with meeeee
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    In a vacuum, Warren for sure. But there are a few others on the list that may be more electable. Really curious how this first debate plays out.

    Bottom of my list (of people who have a shot at all) are Biden and Bernie. Biden because he doesn't understand the current environment in ways that are maddening since he dealt with McConnell for so long and Bernie because I really, really don't think he can win and feel like he pulled the party as far left as it will go right now in 2016.

  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    In a vacuum, Warren for sure. But there are a few others on the list that may be more electable. Really curious how this first debate plays out.

    Bottom of my list (of people who have a shot at all) are Biden and Bernie. Biden because he doesn't understand the current environment in ways that are maddening since he dealt with McConnell for so long and Bernie because I really, really don't think he can win and feel like he pulled the party as far left as it will go right now in 2016.

    Eh, I feel like "electable" is kind of beside the point. It implies we know who will be elected ahead of time in a way we really don't. Whoever wins the primary by definition has a very good chance of winning the presidency. And a horrifically good chance of losing as well.

    Take a moment to donate what you can to Critical Resistance and Black Lives Matter.
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    With Super Tuesday being even more superer than ever, I'm not sure I'm going to have a chance to cast a meaningful primary vote. I've got Inslee as my backup choice to make a statement on policy vote.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    I really don't see people giving a fuck about who is "electable" given 2016 and that "electability" is going to be used as a weapon to bludgeon people into sucking it up and voting for Biden.

  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    Bernie cannot win. He just can't.

    Warren for Chief of Staff - she has a plan for everything except how to not be annihilated by Trump. She's too damaged to win already, and couldn't beat any Republican let alone Trump.

    Buttigeig can't win because no one can say his name. A shame because he's great on paper.

    Gillibrand's comfort food is so pitch-perfect I actually need to take a second look at her policy. That is pro-tier gender politics.

    Biden probably can win, assuming the left doesn't massacre him for being insufficiently woke. I will hold my nose if necessary but plenty of Obama-Trump voters can come back to Democratville with his name at the top. He makes y'all angry in the right ways to win voters lost in 2016.

    Booker is my pick, he has the sparkle and the donors. A moviestar hero bachelor who lives close enough to NY to shit on Trump is especially rude ways, and also is a great centrist Democrat on policy. Disgusting as it is, I want to see a campaign add where people are swiping right on his tindr profile, then throwing their phones in a toilet when they see Trump's.

    Beto for campaign manager, he can't get enough traction in this race even though I'd like him to win. He's not as folksy as Biden, as smart on policy as Warren, or as charismatic as Booker. Also Trump's "He couldn't beat Cruz, but I did, and it wasn't even that hard... " will smoosh him. He can't win.

    Castro should be running for TX Senate vs Cornyn, not for President. My dude, go back to Texas and win a home game please, holy shit. You know you can!

    The rest of them are complete unknowns for me, and will likey remain so.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    As a junky I have been following pretty heavily. Warren is my top, the "I have a plan for that" is a good base. But when you listen to her speak it isn't just a technocrat talking about numbers. She makes it relatable. Also she does a lot of listening when with folks. That is part of why she is moving up in the polls. The worst thing you get is the Native American gaffe from a year ago. Which for Fox News watchers is all they will hear. But coming from a family in that part of the country her story is as common as a weed and shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

    Also folks shouldn't take Tulsi Gabbard on the face as a good choice. She has a lot of troubling opinions on a lot of things. She also has connections to Hindu nationalism which isn't friendly to a lot of minority groups. I am looking forward to her dropping out.

    I have professional reasons to dislike Gillibrand. Let me just say her office puts out as much bullshit as a cattle farm. Its really annoying.

    Mayor Pete, Yang, and Harris all have put up good cases if you listen to them. I highly recommend before the debates listen to some of the long form interviews Pod Save America has put out or through the big QA the NYTimes did recently.

    And as always the media loves a circus and blood bath, doesn't mean this will have to be. Though I feel Biden is going to probably have not a great showing verse those on stage. He is walking with a target on his back, a gaffe that may hurt him with minority groups, and some rather vocal and blunt opponents on stage.

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    The lesson of Obama-Trump voters is not that they pine for Obama and by extension Biden. The lesson is that they want a transformative presidency because everything has left them behind. They want someone to shake things up and Biden ain't that. Biden is antithesis of that. So far I don't see anyone speaking directly to them except for Bernie.

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    First choice is Liz Warren

    Dead last is Bernie

    I really like what I’m seeing from Warren, despite how incredibly stupid the Iowa caucus is she’s got my vote at this point.

    My dead last is a tie between Biden and Sanders.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Bernie cannot win. He just can't.

    Warren for Chief of Staff - she has a plan for everything except how to not be annihilated by Trump. She's too damaged to win already, and couldn't beat any Republican let alone Trump.

    Buttigeig can't win because no one can say his name. A shame because he's great on paper.

    Gillibrand's comfort food is so pitch-perfect I actually need to take a second look at her policy. That is pro-tier gender politics.

    Biden probably can win, assuming the left doesn't massacre him for being insufficiently woke. I will hold my nose if necessary but plenty of Obama-Trump voters can come back to Democratville with his name at the top. He makes y'all angry in the right ways to win voters lost in 2016.

    Booker is my pick, he has the sparkle and the donors. A moviestar hero bachelor who lives close enough to NY to shit on Trump is especially rude ways, and also is a great centrist Democrat on policy. Disgusting as it is, I want to see a campaign add where people are swiping right on his tindr profile, then throwing their phones in a toilet when they see Trump's.

    Beto for campaign manager, he can't get enough traction in this race even though I'd like him to win. He's not as folksy as Biden, as smart on policy as Warren, or as charismatic as Booker. Also Trump's "He couldn't beat Cruz, but I did, and it wasn't even that hard... " will smoosh him. He can't win.

    Castro should be running for TX Senate vs Cornyn, not for President. My dude, go back to Texas and win a home game please, holy shit. You know you can!

    The rest of them are complete unknowns for me, and will likey remain so.

    I disagree Warren can't take on Trump and win. I don't think she is too damaged. And in a lot of ways Warren, Harris, and a lot of the women in this race get marked that way is a bit of sexism that is creeping into the narrative and media coverage.

    Warren is tough. Good on the stump. Relatable. Does have a plan for everything. And can go blow for blow with Trump.

    I think a lot of the traditional narrative around like Biden is not actually what has been shown in general opinion polls. People liked Obama but they went in 2016 for the opposite because they still felt left behind. Biden doesn't speak to that. And has a bad habit of digging his own holes.

    This can go for a lot of folks in the campaign. But I do think, though the media might not agree, that showing that you will break all the norms to make sure people get a fair shake is a good tactic. In the end you win on what you want to do, not on talking about Trump. 2018 showed that with the Democratic wave. Most folks won on stating positions on healthcare, the economy, and social justice in how that concerned their district.

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Bernie cannot win. He just can't.

    Warren for Chief of Staff - she has a plan for everything except how to not be annihilated by Trump. She's too damaged to win already, and couldn't beat any Republican let alone Trump.

    Buttigeig can't win because no one can say his name. A shame because he's great on paper.

    Gillibrand's comfort food is so pitch-perfect I actually need to take a second look at her policy. That is pro-tier gender politics.

    Biden probably can win, assuming the left doesn't massacre him for being insufficiently woke. I will hold my nose if necessary but plenty of Obama-Trump voters can come back to Democratville with his name at the top. He makes y'all angry in the right ways to win voters lost in 2016.

    Booker is my pick, he has the sparkle and the donors. A moviestar hero bachelor who lives close enough to NY to shit on Trump is especially rude ways, and also is a great centrist Democrat on policy. Disgusting as it is, I want to see a campaign add where people are swiping right on his tindr profile, then throwing their phones in a toilet when they see Trump's.

    Beto for campaign manager, he can't get enough traction in this race even though I'd like him to win. He's not as folksy as Biden, as smart on policy as Warren, or as charismatic as Booker. Also Trump's "He couldn't beat Cruz, but I did, and it wasn't even that hard... " will smoosh him. He can't win.

    Castro should be running for TX Senate vs Cornyn, not for President. My dude, go back to Texas and win a home game please, holy shit. You know you can!

    The rest of them are complete unknowns for me, and will likey remain so.

    Harris is really off your radar?

  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Lots of Obama supporters can now see the flaws of his presidency and why it failed to be truly transformative. Namely that he tried to deal with the GOP in good faith when it was obvious they just wanted him to fail.

    Biden is echoing the same sentiment. He still seems to believe in an era of government that's gone and playing the old game is a good way to lose.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    BTW if you want to listen to candidates in their own voice here is a good set of interviews. Yes its the Pod Save America guys which some folks dislike but the questions are good and the interactions are less polished than normal TV interviews. Also you get some policy crunchiness.




    Also some quick recent polling and shifts in the campaign. 538 still one of the best for this.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bulletpoint-two-meaningful-things-have-happened-in-the-democratic-primary-so-far/

    Also this was a nice short article on electibility which is so nebulous to be meaningless because no one knows how the race will go or what will happen a year from now.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bulletpoint-is-electability-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy/

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Gotta go home team on this to start, luckily that's Warren. Unfortunately I think outside circles like ours she is fairly solidly disliked (of course for the dumbest fuckin reasons possible). Like I'd put at least a little money down that she fuckin hard loses new hampshire.

    I just don't fuckin want Bernie cause he's essentially Warren without a plan, and I just plain don't like the guy. Joe Biden should fade into the west before he fucks up all the good will he's got after being mean uncle joe for Obama.

    I like all the fresher faces in the race, Harris seems like one to keep your eyes on.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    Gotta go home team on this to start, luckily that's Warren. Unfortunately I think outside circles like ours she is fairly solidly disliked (of course for the dumbest fuckin reasons possible). Like I'd put at least a little money down that she fuckin hard loses new hampshire.

    I just don't fuckin want Bernie cause he's essentially Warren without a plan, and I just plain don't like the guy. Joe Biden should fade into the west before he fucks up all the good will he's got after being mean uncle joe for Obama.

    I like all the fresher faces in the race, Harris seems like one to keep your eyes on.

    Also not 100% sure this is real verse manufactured by the media. Also I am always worried about sexism creeping in.

    Recent Avalanche Poll on if you had a magic wand who would you make President. Warren wins. Though in a horse race Biden is still on top.

    avalance-chart.png?w=575


    Also a quick think on how much people find the candidates likeable.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-2020-candidates-are-more-or-less-popular-than-they-should-be/

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    I think activating non-voters is more valuable than trying to convince centrists to vote democrat for a cycle. The one that actually wants to do that the most is going to get my support

This discussion has been closed.